Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:34 PM Moonrise 10:37 PM   Moonset 7:33 AM

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FXUS64 KJAN 261736 AFDJAN

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Jackson MS 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

New AVIATION

MESOSCALE UPDATE
Issued at 1104 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Rest of today...

A warm & quiet aftn is expected. GOES East water vapor imagery/RAP analysis indicate ridge axis centered across the region. Center of sprawling mid-level ridge is over the Yucatan Peninsula, aiding in the amplified longwave troughing west of the MS River Valley. Lead cold core is expected to become more open wave, with ongoing <995mb sfc low/frontal zone across the Plains expected to lift east-northeast into the evening. A lead shortwave could spark some showers or isolated storms in the Delta, with recent convective allowing models (CAMs) indicating some could sneak in around or just after 00Z. No concerns at the moment for severe storms, but will have to monitor anything that could sneak in from the west if any organization persists into favorable environment for gusty downdrafts. Expect seasonably warm highs in the mid 80s. Deepening sfc low in the Plains & subtropical sfc high in the Atlantic will lead to tight pressure gradient nearly 3-5mb, which supports warm & well mixed boundary layer. Sustained winds up to 20mph & gusts up to 30mph are possible, especially northwest of the Natchez Trace corridor. Updates are out. /DC/

DISCUSSION
Issued at 411 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Today through tonight: Warm and mostly dry conditions are expected to continue as we finish up the work week. An upper level ridge axis will shift east of the area today, and we'll see increasing southerly flow in response. Expect an increase in wind gusts later this morning and afternoon in what will be a warm and well-mixed boundary layer. The only shower chances, over northwest portions of the area, should correspond with a subtle shortwave trough in the southwest flow aloft this evening. /EC/

Saturday through next week: Our area will be under the influence of a summer-like regime in the extended period beneath general ridging aloft. Intermittent disturbances will bring the chance for rain and storms, however most energy should be deflected to the north and west thanks to the ridge. Our northwestern areas could be clipped by isolated showers Saturday with the departing low pressure system to the northwest, however most areas should remain dry. A pressure gradient of around 5 to 7mb over the area will result in sustained winds around 15 to 20 mph with gusts around 30 to 35 mph, which has prompted a limited wind graphic in the HWO.
Winds should diminish Monday.

Attention then turns to a system Monday that could bring a small threat for strong to severe storms and some heavy rain. A shortwave pushes across the area Monday while 60s dewpoints are in place. Deep shear around 40 to 50 kts should aid in organization of updrafts and maintenance across the area. The primary threat should be damaging wind gusts with a possible MCS, mostly along the HWY 82 corridor. In addition, PWAT in excess of 1.5 inches and deep warm cloud layer will result in efficient rainfall rates, thus a flash flood threat also appears possible. Expect more details as they become available.

Warm and humid conditions continue under the influence of upper ridging with intermittent showers and storms. A cold front Thursday/Friday will bring a return of more steady rain and storm chances, and slightly cooler temperatures. Severe storms are not likely with this round given very weak deep shear and instability./SAS/

AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Fri Apr 26 2024

Return to VFR flight categories is ongoing this afternoon. Winds will be breezy from the south today, sustained up to 20mph, with gusts of 25mph & up to 30mph possible at times, and a slight drop off is during the evening. MVFR stratus will redevelop across central to southern TAF sites after 27/08-10Z & psbl fog at PIB/HBG during this time. Expect ceilings & any vsby restrictions to lift after 27/13-15Z, with a return to breezy southeasterly winds. /EC/DC/

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
Jackson 67 85 65 84 / 0 0 0 10 Meridian 64 85 64 84 / 0 0 0 10 Vicksburg 69 87 65 85 / 10 0 0 10 Hattiesburg 65 84 64 84 / 0 0 0 0 Natchez 68 87 65 85 / 10 0 0 10 Greenville 69 85 65 84 / 20 10 0 20 Greenwood 68 85 66 84 / 10 10 0 10

JAN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MS...None.
LA...None.
AR...None.

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