Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Phoenix, AZ

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Sunrise 5:54AMSunset 7:09PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 5:36 PM MST (00:36 UTC) Moonrise 10:45PMMoonset 11:19AM Illumination 61% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phoenix, AZ
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location: 33.57, -112.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ
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Fxus65 kpsr 212142
afdpsr
area forecast discussion
national weather service phoenix az
242 pm mst Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
Excessive heat with record high temperatures continues today
across south central arizona into southeast california with only
very isolated thunderstorms over far eastern gila county. Moisture
will return by Thursday morning to begin a gradual cooling trend
and bring isolated thunderstorms back into the forecast for south
central arizona Thursday through Saturday, with the best chances
over pinal and gila counties. A gradual warming trend will begin
on Sunday and continue into the first half of next week with
minimal rain chances.

Discussion
Another very hot day based on august standards continues to
unfold with an excessive heat warning still in effect through this
evening for much of arizona and southeast california. Phoenix has
already reached 114 degrees smashing the old daily record of 110
degrees. Temperatures will approach 115 degrees across all lower
elevation locations, including yuma and EL centro. Otherwise, much
of arizona continues to be dominated by clear skies with dry flow
aloft under a repressive high pressure regime. Some moisture has
seeped into the state from the east leaving the white mountains
and southeast arizona with the only significant chances for
afternoon storms. A few cumulus clouds are trying to build over
the higher terrain in gila county, and while a shower or two
is possible, the impact of any storms will be very minimal.

Beginning tomorrow, a passing trough across the northern us will
dampen atmospheric heights suppressing the h5 high before it
eventually recenters over our area. This position will favor a
southerly mid-level flow allowing moisture to seep further into
central arizona. Additional low level moisture will also increase
beginning late tonight early Thursday morning as a gulf surge
brings dew points into the mid 50s by the afternoon. Both of
these conditions also signal the start of a cooling trend with high
temperatures falling close to seasonal normal values by Friday and
lasting through the weekend.

However, the moisture increase is also needed for thunderstorm
chances. A handful of model soundings suggest a moderate amount of
cape and mixing ratios in the 9-10 g kg range as early as
Thursday afternoon. Very high dcape and inverted v profiles show
the potential for strong downbursts with any convection, and the
possibility for longer living traveling outflows. Even though
storm coverage will be best to our south, outflow interactions
from distant convection may provide enough lift for isolated
thunderstorms in the phoenix area and northern pinal county.

Strong winds will be the primary threat if any storms do form
given the aforementioned atmospheric profile and dcape. Still,
most areas are more likely to miss out on any precipitation but
the potential is at least there. The better storm chances will
increase late Thursday evening night over southern gila county.

Elevated moisture levels will keep low-end precip chances for the
lower desert through the weekend with storm activity most likely
over the higher terrain in eastern arizona.

Despite the presence of an elongated ridge over the desert
southwest through the first half of next week, rich monsoonal
moisture will continue to remain positioned southward across
northwest mexico. Although the gradual rise in heights aloft will
increase high temperatures back into the upper 100s and suppress
convection through subsidence associated with the ridge, this
moisture should keep temperatures just below excessive heat
thresholds. Models continue to indicate that a more significant
moisture increase could occur during the second half of next week,
with some potential for relatively strong dynamics associated with
an inverted trough that splits off a relatively strong trough and
frontal system moving through the eastern two-thirds of the u.S.

On Wednesday into Thursday. Although confidence this far out is
still low, both the GEFS and ecm ensembles show better rain
chances for the second half of next week that may try to help keep
us from having the driest monsoon season on record for phoenix.

Aviation Updated at 1740 utc.

South-central arizona including kphx, kiwa, ksdl, and kdvt:
no significant aviation concerns expected through the TAF period
asVFR conditions and diurnal wind trends continue to persist. A
few gusts into the teens will be possible this afternoon before
tapering off this evening. Not expecting any convection or
outflows to impact the terminals this afternoon, but some
guidance is now indicating an outflow reaching the terminals
tomorrow afternoon. Will not mention in the tafs at this time as
confidence remains low.

Southeast california southwest arizona including kipl and kblh:
few aviation concerns are expected through the TAF period under
vfr conditions. Winds this morning will continue to remain light
and at times variable before increasing this afternoon. A few
gusts into the teens will be possible this afternoon before
tapering off this evening.

Aviation discussion not updated for amended tafs.

Fire weather
Saturday through Wednesday:
slight chances for storms will favor the higher terrain north and
east of phoenix, including the tonto nf, through the first half of
next week. Humidity values will generally improve with minimum rh
values in the 15-25% range in the desert with slightly higher
values the forests. Overnight rh recovery will be in the 40-50%
range for most locations. The winds will mostly follow typical
diurnal trends with some afternoon breezes.

Climate
Record high temperatures
date phoenix yuma
---- ------- ----
aug 21 110 in 2007 115 in 1969
aug 22 113 in 2011 115 in 1969
aug 23 114 in 2011 115 in 2011

Spotter information statement
Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.

Psr watches warnings advisories
Az... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm mst this evening for
azz530>546-548>556-559>562.

Ca... Excessive heat warning until 8 pm pdt this evening for
caz560>570.

Discussion... Deems hopper
aviation... Smith
fire weather... Deems
climate... Rogers kuhlman mo


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ8 mi43 minSW 1210.00 miFair110°F28°F6%1005.4 hPa
Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ10 mi45 minNW 12 G 2110.00 miA Few Clouds112°F24°F5%1001.5 hPa
Scottsdale Airport, AZ10 mi43 minWSW 710.00 miFair111°F24°F5%1002.6 hPa
Glendale, Glendale Municipal Airport, AZ11 mi49 minS 8 G 1610.00 miClear113°F30°F6%1004.7 hPa
Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ15 mi98 minWSW 1110.00 miFair112°F25°F5%1002.7 hPa
Goodyear Municipal, AZ19 mi49 minSW 1010.00 miClear113°F32°F6%1004.4 hPa
Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ21 mi1.7 hrsWNW 1110.00 miFair112°F33°F7%1002.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KDVT

Wind History from DVT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW7SW8--Calm------------------NE7Calm4SE73----SW10
G16
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1 day agoSW9SW8----------N7------------W33SW5SW3SW8W6SW7----W8
2 days ago--------NE5--------------------------SE4--SW6W10
G15
W9SW9

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Weather Map and Satellite Images
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Link to Loop

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Wind Forecast for Phoenix, AZ (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Phoenix, AZ
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.