Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 5:49AM||Sunset 7:05PM||Wednesday April 21, 2021 4:06 AM MST (11:06 UTC)||Moonrise 1:13PM||Moonset 2:42AM||Illumination 70%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Phoenix, AZHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Phoenix, AZ  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KPSR 211056 AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Phoenix AZ 356 AM MST Wed Apr 21 2021
UPDATE. Aviation discussion.
SYNOPSIS. An approaching weather system today will bring a return of somewhat cooler temperatures, increased windy conditions, and high fire danger. As the system weakens and moves through on Thursday, a few isolated rain showers will be possible, but overall conditions will remain dry. A warming trend is then expected into the weekend with high temperatures returning to slightly above normal before another storm system may affect the region early next week.
DISCUSSION. A mostly dry compact closed low continues to track southeastward through central California early this morning, but it is forecast to weaken later today with the main circulation taking an abrupt eastward turn into Nevada. The larger scale trough will however continue to track southeastward into our region with the main forecast concerns later today being strong winds and high fire danger. Consensus among guidance continues to show the strongest winds will be impact Imperial County CA and across Pinal and Gila Counties this afternoon with gusts to around 40 mph at times. Elsewhere, winds are likely to gust into a 25-35 mph range. Dry boundary layer conditions will remain across Arizona today with afternoon RHs falling to around 10%. A Red Flag Warning for Maricopa, Pinal and Gila Counties has been issued for late this morning through early evening due to the combination of the strong winds and low RHs.
Winds will eventually subside later this evening while the trough axis briefly stalls out across northern Arizona into southern California. Cooler conditions will definitely settle in for Thursday as forecast highs drop into a 80-85 degree range across the lower deserts. The trough axis will eventually track through the rest of Arizona during the latter half of Thursday with the GEFS still pointing toward a modest circulation and a chance for some light showers affecting south-central Arizona. The latest 06Z HRRR also hints at a few showers possible Thursday evening. As a result, we have introduced a 10-20% chance for some light showers for Thursday evening and early Thursday night mainly centered over the northern foothills of Phoenix. Even if the showers do develop, we do not anticipate much more than a trace to a few hundredths of an inch.
For Friday into the coming weekend, we will see a quick transition into a modest ridging pattern over the Southwestern U.S. This will bring temperatures back to normal already by Friday before highs likely top out in a 90-95 degree range over the weekend. Model ensembles also show a deep trough developing off the West Coast this weekend, but there remains a decent amount of uncertainty with the depth and timing of the trough through our region early next week. For now, the most likely scenario would bring a modestly strong trough through our region Monday into early Tuesday leading to a decent cool down, potentially even into the upper 70s for highs. Precipitation chances are still very uncertain with the EPS favoring better moisture and higher rain chances while the GEFS is leaning toward the drier side. Definitely a weather system to watch over the next several days.
AVIATION. Updated at 1055Z. South-Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
Easterly winds will be a bit stronger (around 10 kt) than normal this morning, and gradually veer towards the south after sunrise. A period of southerly crosswinds is expected between 16-20Z in which gusts of 20-25 kt will be possible. Wind directions will hover close to the due south direction, but will fluctuate 20-30 degrees at any given time. Winds eventually become southwesterly later in the afternoon with gusts approaching 30 kt. This may also cause some slantwise visibility issues in the late afternoon. Blowing dust reducing surface visibilities below 7SM is less likely overall and confidence is too low in that scenario to reflect in the TAFs. But blowing dust from Pinal County can't be ruled out. As for clouds, just some minor cirrus.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
Surface winds will strengthen mid-morning morning (westerly KIPL and south- southwesterly KBLH) with gusts of 25-30 kts common by 19Z. Anticipate occasional higher gusts of 30-35 kts during the afternoon. There is potential for blowing dust to cause reduced surface and slantwise visibilities (most likely at KIPL). Confidence in surface visibilities below 7SM is not high enough at this time to reflect in the TAFs. As for clouds, just some minor cirrus.
FIRE WEATHER. Friday through Tuesday: Temperatures undergo a warming trend Fri-Sun eventually settling in the lower 90s for most areas. Min RHs drop below 15% by Saturday and into the single digits by Sunday. Overnight recoveries will slowly worsen each night settling into the 20-35% range by Sunday night/Monday morning. Winds early in the period will oftentimes be breezy during the afternoon hours with winds likely increasing starting Sunday. Confidence in the forecast beyond Sunday is somewhat low but there will likely be another weather system moving through Monday/Tuesday. If so, winds are likely to increase further, temperatures will cool, and wetter conditions can be anticipated.
SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT. Spotters should follow standard reporting procedures.
PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. AZ . Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM MST this evening for AZZ132-133.
CA . Wind Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ562.
DISCUSSION . Kuhlman AVIATION . Rogers/Feldkircher FIRE WEATHER . AD/Kuhlman
Weather Reporting StationsEDIT (on/off)  Help NOTE: Click on distance to see the station location on a map
Airport ReportsEDIT (on/off)  Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.
|Phoenix, Phoenix-Deer Valley Municipal Airport, AZ||8 mi||73 min||Var 5||10.00 mi||Fair||67°F||18°F||15%||1006.7 hPa|
|Phoenix, Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport, AZ||10 mi||75 min||E 7||10.00 mi||Fair||67°F||20°F||17%||1006.3 hPa|
|Scottsdale Airport, AZ||10 mi||73 min||ENE 3||10.00 mi||Fair||67°F||20°F||17%||1007.2 hPa|
|Luke Air Force Base / Phoenix, AZ||15 mi||68 min||E 4||10.00 mi||Fair||66°F||17°F||15%||1006.3 hPa|
|Mesa / Falcon Field, AZ||21 mi||72 min||ESE 7||10.00 mi||Fair||69°F||18°F||14%||1006.7 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KDVT
Wind History from DVT (wind in knots)
|1 day ago||N||NE||NE||NE||Calm||E||SW||S|
|2 days ago||N||N||N||NE||NE||NE|
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