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Marine Weather and Tides Red Hill, SC Version 3.4

NOTICE 10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones. 9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them. 7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports. 6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

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Sunrise 7:10AM

Sunset 5:09PM

Friday December 13, 2019 9:55 PM EST (02:55 UTC)

Moonrise 6:41PM

Moonset 8:29AM

Illumination 94%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Red Hill, SC

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Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 132328 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 628 PM EST Fri Dec 13 2019

SYNOPSIS. Periods of rain will continue through Saturday morning as waves of low pressure moving along a front across the Carolinas. High pressure will build in from the northwest late Saturday through Sunday. Southerly winds will bring warmer temperatures Monday and Tuesday, followed by increasing rain chances as another cold front crosses the area late Tuesday. Cold and dry weather will follow through the end of the week.

UPDATE. Major changes to many forecast elements on this early evening update. See Near Term section below for details.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. A wave of low pressure moving north along a front stalled 30-50 miles off the coast brought heavy rainfall across the area this afternoon. Mesonet gauge totals through 645 PM have reached 1 inch on the south end of Wilmington, near Holden Beach in Brunswick County, and in Conway, SC. Farther inland heavier rain beginning earlier in the day has totaled over two inches in Hartsville and Darlington. A new daily record rainfall of 1.29 inches has already been established in Florence, with a little more on the way before midnight.

Rainfall should largely end across the area by late this evening as our first wave of low pressure moves out to the northeast. Low clouds will persist as the coastal front jumps onshore ahead of the next wave of low pressure currently moving across the Florida Panhandle. This second disturbance should take a more inland route, dragging the front almost as far inland as the I-95 corridor, and leading to a second wave of moderate rainfall late tonight into Saturday morning.

Temperatures are currently in the 40s inland to 50-55 along the coast. This has necessitated a large downward change to tonight's forecast lows by as much as 7 degrees in Georgetown and Kingstree. Temperatures should rise overnight as the front jumps inland, potentially into the 60s along the coast and well into the 50s inland, especially east of I-95.

After the upper level trough base swings across the Cape Fear Region late Saturday afternoon, pressure rises associated with incoming high pressure will bring a break in cloud cover and a return of dry weather.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/. In the mid-levels, heights show ridging increasing, but this ridge will be short-lived. At the surface, high-pressure along an axis from northern Florida to southern Minnesota will shift northeast of the area by late Sunday night. No precipitation in the period with no synoptic/mesoscale forcing and limited moistures. High temperatures Sunday will range from near 60 to the lower 60s. Low temperatures lower 40s inland to mid to upper 40s within 10 miles of the coast.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. With the progressive pattern, a trough is present in the mid- levels in the lee of the Rockies on Monday, and by Wednesday the trough will shift to the east coast. The 12 UTC run of the 500 height shows the GFS is slightly faster but the ECMWF and GEFS are in closer agreement. At the surface the GEFS is much faster with the mean low just north of Pittsburgh and the ECMWF ensemble mean surface low near Louisville, Kentucky. Confidence in precipitation timing is a confidence issue.

The ECMWF ensemble 24-hour probabilities of > 0.50" of QPF around 20% to 30%, but > 0.10" probabilities are greater than 80%. The GEFS is a bit higher for > 0.50".

Ahead of the surface front, high temperatures will be in upper 60s Monday and near 70 on Tuesday. The low temperatures, Monday morning are in the lower to middle 40s and rising to the middle to upper 50s Tuesday morning. After the front a cooling trend is established with Highs in the 50s but lows will fall to freezing or just below Wednesday night and Thursday.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Rain showers continue to move northward as we approach the back edge of the northern rain shield. A break tonight as a dry slot works its way over the area ahead of the main cold front expected to pass during the day on Saturday. Tonight, widespread IFR will be interrupted by the low-level breakup of stratus and some areas could see consistent oscillation between LIFR and VFR, especially along the coast. Currently expecting patchy fog and some areas of dense fog at our inland terminals before southerly winds develop near daybreak that will scour remaining low-level fog and stratus after 12Z. Areas along the coast will see much more variable conditions with stratus likely to be the dominant reason for sub-VFR conditions.

Extended Outlook . IFR likely through Saturday evening as an area of low pressure moves by the coastal Carolinas. VFR expected Sunday and Monday. Sub-VFR conditions could return Tuesday with a cold front passage with VFR Wednesday.

MARINE. Tonight through Saturday Night:

A wave of low pressure is moving north along a coastal front about 30-50 miles off the Carolina coast. This has led to north and northeast winds and heavy rain across the coastal waters this afternoon. As this wave of low pressure moves away from the area later this evening look for winds and rain to diminish. A second wave of low pressure currently coming our way from the Florida Panhandle should take a more inland track, dragging the front inland across the beaches and veering our wind directions southwesterly. Wind speeds should again increase as this wave passes the area early Saturday morning, reaching at least 20 kt. Rain continues into Saturday afternoon with decreasing thunderstorm threat as front pushes instability further offshore heading into Saturday night. Sea fog with patchy reduced visibility offshore is also a possibility for the next 24 hours. Small craft advisory remains in effect until Saturday night.

Sunday through Wednesday:

High pressure will briefly be over the waters on Sunday into Monday but a cold front from the west will quickly cross the waters late Tuesday night. Winds will approach 25 knots but confidence is low as GEFS is below 50% for winds reaching Small Craft, and the ECMWF ensemble mean is slightly higher. As the front passes east of the coastal waters, winds will slowly diminish by Wednesday. Sea height on Tuesday will increase to 3 to 5 feet but will fall to 2 to 4 feet by Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM EST Sunday for AMZ254-256. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252.



SYNOPSIS . RH/TRA UPDATE . TRA NEAR TERM . TRA/MCK SHORT TERM . RH LONG TERM . RH AVIATION . 21

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC	10 mi	62 min		55°F
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC	28 mi	71 min	NNE 1.9	55°F			1007 hPa	55°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2)	32 mi	48 min	E 9.7 G 12	55°F	55°F		1008.6 hPa
41119	32 mi	186 min			55°F	3 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Conway Horry County Airport, SC	6 mi	61 min	N 0	2.00 mi	Fog/Mist	50°F	50°F	100%	1008.1 hPa
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC	8 mi	60 min	NNW 4	1.00 mi	Fog/Mist	55°F	55°F	100%	1008.1 hPa
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC	19 mi	63 min	N 5	5.00 mi	Fog/Mist	54°F	54°F	100%	1007.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KHYW

Wind History from HYW (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Keysfield, Waccamaw River, South Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Conway, RR. bridge, Waccamaw River, South Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (21,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC

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