Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Atlantic Beach, SC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 5:08PM Saturday December 7, 2019 6:20 PM EST (23:20 UTC) Moonrise 2:34PMMoonset 2:30AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 608 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday afternoon...
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Sun..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Sun night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely with isolated tstms.
Mon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers through the night.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, building to 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 608 Pm Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Brisk ne winds will result in rough seas and advisory conditions tonight through Sunday afternoon, possibly to be extended into Sunday night. A coastal front will bring marine showers Sunday afternoon, becoming more widespread and heavier Sunday night with isolated tstms. This feature will pull away on Monday. A cold front will approach the coast Tuesday afternoon, crossing the waters late Tuesday night and early in the morning Wednesday. This will be followed by strong high pressure, gusty ne winds, and large seas into Thursday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Atlantic Beach, SC
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location: 33.81, -78.69     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 072316 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 715 PM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. Cool, dry high pressure will build down from the north this weekend. A coastal warm front will lift north Sunday night, leading to warming temperatures Monday into Tuesday. A cold front will cross the coast Tuesday night and early Wednesday, bringing a cool down through mid-week and drying. Low pressure migrating from the Gulf late week, may bring wet weather next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Clear and cold overnight, but most localities to hold above the freezing mark with a tight NE pressure gradient in the boundary layer. Lesser isotach values near I-95 will promote brief freezing temperatures early Sunday morning from near Maxton to Bennettsville to Hartsville, and known cold spots inland, for several hours.

Veering low-level wind profile to direct a coastal warm front onto our coast late Sunday, with a good batch of marine showers lining up Sunday afternoon, pushing inland middle to late afternoon. Model reflectivity become more robust Sunday night, as convergence in the low levels intensifies. By this time, dewpoints have surged to around 60 degrees, with pronounced southerly moisture advection through 15,000 feet. This to warrant isolated TSTMs over the 0-20NM waters westward across the coastal interior Sunday night, the severe threat however appears low.

Potentially a solid rainfall from MYR to Wampee to Grissettown to Shallotte to Leland to ILM to Castle Hayne to Burgaw to Surf City, where a few spots are likely to exceed an inch of rainfall Sunday night. Through Sunday night our current QPF projections bring the highest rain totals over Brunswick and New Hanover counties, and including eastern Horry, and SE Pender county.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. Deep layer southwesterly flow this period will keep plenty of clouds socked in across the area. Forcing for precipitation however will largely be lacking save for Monday morning/midday along the coast where some shear vorticity provides some ascent. The WRF is a bit of an outlier with its heavier QPF (and there are enough models that don't show much rain at all) and so it's values were curtailed considerably. Temperatures will be elevated significantly above climatology in the moisture-laden flow regime.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Cold front pushes through Tuesday night bringing a good chance for rain though the lack of good dynamics indicates that it will be a low QPF event. The wedge that sets up thereafter will do little to remove the copious moisture in place and the area appears to be in for an extended period of cloudy skies. The latter part of the period appears to turn quite unsettled though forecast confidence is a bit low. Models are showing an active southern branch that will interact with moisture from Tuesday night's front sitting offshore. A front running disturbance may lead to a weak area of low pressure that affects the area on Friday. The main southern branch feature could bring a bigger rain locally as early as Saturday whereas other guidance like the EC are more cutoff and therefore much slower.

AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. High confidence in VFR conditions prevailing tonight through Sunday morning as a ridge of high pressure lingers across the Carolinas. Isentropic lift at 300K will likely produce some -RA at the coastal terminals generally after 21Z Sunday, especially as the warm front approaches the coast. During this time there is a potential for MVFR CIGs at KILM, KCRE, and KMYR.

Extended Outlook . TEMPO MVFR conditions possible at times Sun night into Mon as the warm front moves through. MVFR conditions also possible again Tuesday as the next cold front approaches.

MARINE. A difficult period for smaller craft, as 25 kt gusts tonight and Sunday morning has Advisory flags raised. Numerical wave height guidance shows Frying Pan shoals reaching 7 feet after midnight tonight for several hours. 25 kt gusts Sunday offshore and 4-6 foot seas has the Advisory through Sunday afternoon at this time. NE waves tonight and early Sunday 4-6 feet every 6-7 seconds. This will transition to E to ESE waves 3-6 feet every 7-8 seconds late in the day Sunday. Scattered marine showers Sunday afternoon will become more widespread Sunday night, and heavier, and as a result marine visibilities will suffer and become much reduced Sunday night, this includes the ICW as well, mainly from Myrtle Beach northward.

Though SW flow will gradually diminish on Monday as a cold front approaches guidance is hesitant to allow seas to subside below advisory thresholds especially for northern zones. Tuesday night's cold frontal passage will bring a sharp wind shift to the north steepening wave wave faces. A cool air wedge of high pressure over land Wednesday and Thursday will keep N to NE gradient winds strong enough to warrant an advisory on their own, pushing seas more solidly into advisory criteria.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Sunday for AMZ250-252- 254- 256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . 08 SHORT TERM . mbB LONG TERM . mbB AVIATION . SRP


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 11 mi73 min NNE 12 G 16 56°F 56°F1026.3 hPa
41119 11 mi181 min 56°F2 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 16 mi51 min 56°F
41108 36 mi51 min 58°F3 ft
NIWS1 - North Inlet-Winyah Bay Reserve, SC 41 mi96 min ENE 8.9 57°F 1024 hPa50°F
WLON7 49 mi51 min 53°F 54°F1026.3 hPa

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC2 mi28 minNNE 610.00 miFair53°F45°F74%1026.1 hPa
Myrtle Beach International Airport, SC15 mi25 minNNE 410.00 miFair55°F46°F72%1026.2 hPa
Conway Horry County Airport, SC23 mi26 minN 010.00 miFair48°F42°F82%1026.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCRE

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmNE4N3CalmCalmNE3NE5CalmCalmCalmN4N3CalmN4N7NE12NE12NE11
G17
NE9E7NE9NE7NE7N6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW6S6SE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoW5SW7SW6SW8W8W6W6W3W6CalmW4Calm4NW4N9N8N12
G17
N7--4S7S4CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Myrtle Beach Airport, ICWW, South Carolina
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Myrtle Beach Airport
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 05:10 AM EST     2.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 12:03 PM EST     0.84 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 05:31 PM EST     2.72 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.611.62.22.62.82.72.52.11.71.310.811.522.42.72.72.52.11.61.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Little River (town), ICWW, South Carolina
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Little River (town)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:30 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:13 AM EST     4.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:06 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:55 AM EST     0.79 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:35 PM EST     4.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:05 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 11:14 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.32.33.23.94.24.13.732.21.510.81.11.92.83.5443.73.12.31.50.80.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (18,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.