Sunrise 6:19 AM   Sunset 8:04 PM Moonrise 4:13 AM   Moonset 5:41 PM

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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 605 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Today - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers, mainly this morning. Tonight - SW winds 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 10 seconds. Wed night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 4 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 11 seconds. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri - W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 605 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will occur through Tue due to passage of an upper level disturbance. Bermuda high pressure, the piedmont trough and the daily sea breeze will combine to produce modest sw winds, with periodic gusts up to 25 kt, Tue through Thu night. A cold front accompanied with convection will blast across the area late Thu into Fri.

FXUS62 KILM 061035 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 635 AM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
Shower and thunderstorm activity will peak today into Tue.
For later Tue into Thu, could see the warmest temps of this Spring season as ridging aloft, troffing across the inland Carolinas and Atlantic high pressure situated offshore all combine to provide an extended period of SW. A cold frontal passage accompanied with showers and thunderstorms will occur Thu into Fri, followed by cooler and drier weather for the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
Onshore southerly flow could be enough for convection to push isolated convection onshore this morning. Or the other alternative, by or after sunrise and the days heating commences, convection may break out along the immediate coast, ie. frictional convergence from the increased moist southerly flow and then push inland. This mostly a Jul thru early Sep occurrence.
Another mid-level s/w trof will move SW to NE across the Carolinas this afternoon and early evening. Have indicated POPs peaking at 50-60 across locations away from the immediate coast during the mention time-line. With flow in the low-levels veering to the SW after the s/w trofs passage, and NW in the mid and upper levels later tonight, look for the convective threat to wane rather quickly after sunset with not much left, if any, by midnight tonight. Boundary later tonight will be active keeping winds at the sfc active and the threat for widespread fog at a minimum, even across locations that receive rainfall.
Highs today will break into the 80s across all locations, except may hold in the upper 70s at the immediate beaches.
Tonights lows, widespread 60s to 70 at the immediate coast.
This thanks to local SSTs now in the 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
Classic setup for very warm temperatures in place for the short term. A mid level ridge will be overhead while Bermuda High pressure sits off the coast. The surface pattern will be responsible for importing the warmth and moisture whilst the mid level anticyclone acts to cap convection from being widespread.
The ridging aloft probably won't be 100% successful in it's convection suppression though, as it's hard to prevent a diurnal thunderstorm with highs in the upper 80s and dewpoints around 70. A few mesoscale boundaries should manage isolated coverage of storms. Inland locales will be favorable for initiation but with an eastward storm motion the coast may not escape a storm or two, the end result being 30-ish POPs area wide on Tuesday. A little bit of mid level dry air tries to sneak in from the west on Wednesday for some slightly lower rain chances. The slight down-tick in convective coverage and subtle WAA should push most places away from the water to a high of 90 if not a few degrees higher.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
Cold front approaches Thursday and mid level ridge axis moves offshore for WSW flow aloft. Thunderstorm coverage should return to a roughly 30 percent areal coverage that typifies the date. Timing continues to be iffy regarding an upper trough that pushes the front through the area, with a line of strong thunderstorms defiantly not out of the question, though the presence of daytime instability more favorable should a slower/Friday solution verify. Timing issues aside, the front will usher in some cooler air that will lead to temperatures being below normal for most of the weekend. Departures will only be a few degrees but with such a warm week leading up to FROPA it will be quite noticeable.

AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
Bermuda high pressure will keep a moist southerly-southwesterly flow across the area terminals with convection drifting onshore this morning. Further development will occur along the sea breeze later this morning, affecting the coastal terminals, before finally pushing inland. Meanwhile, inland terminals will see convection moving in from the west as well as firing up as yet another mid-level s/w trof pushes across later this aftn and this evening. Will identify shra time line but keep VCTS to highlight the ltg threat at all terminals. Winds generally SSW-SW 5 to 10 kt thru the period, hier at the coastal terminals due to sea breeze action into the evening

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic visibility and ceiling restrictions Tue. Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating late Tue into Thu with limited convection.
Flight restrictions possible later Thu into Fri from convection ahead of a strong cold front. Clearing later Fri with VFR dominating.

MARINE
Through Tonight...Bermuda high's center to slide further offshore from the Carolinas this period. A sfc trof will develop across the western Carolinas later tonight. The sfc pg will slowly tighten thru the period as a result, yielding a noticeable increase to the wind speeds this period, outside of the sea breeze. In addition, the tweaking of the sfc pressure pattern will veer wind directions from S to SW. Seas to also reflect with a general 2 to 4 ft accommodating the waters. SE wave at 5 to 7 second periods will dominate the seas spectrum.

Tuesday through Friday Night...The extended initializes with a large area of high pressure off the coast. Wind waves will be southwesterly with a much lesser swell component. The swell energy may increase a bit Wed into Thursday as the center of the high moves eastward and a longer fetch develops into the Southeast Coast. As the swell continues and a cold front approaches a few advisory- worthy 6 ft seas could materialize Thursday and/or Thursday night. This front pushes through Friday though some exact timing uncertainties do exist. A veer to NW expected post-FROPA steepening wave faces and shutting down the swell-brining fetch.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Nixon Crossroads
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Mon -- 02:03 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:13 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:37 AM EDT     4.19 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:15 PM EDT     -0.39 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 08:02 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:05 PM EDT     5.01 feet High Tide
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Tubbs Inlet
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Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     -0.18 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:12 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:00 AM EDT     4.69 feet High Tide
Mon -- 01:10 PM EDT     -0.58 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:39 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:28 PM EDT     5.62 feet High Tide
Mon -- 08:01 PM EDT     Sunset
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Tubbs Inlet, North Carolina, Tide feet

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