Sunrise 6:16 AM   Sunset 8:00 PM Moonrise 3:41 AM   Moonset 4:27 PM

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AMZ252 Coastal Waters From Cape Fear Nc To Little River Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1232 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of tonight - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 2 ft at 6 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms late. Sun - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 9 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Sun night - S winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A slight chance of tstms. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight. Mon - S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 3 ft at 7 seconds. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 1 ft at 8 seconds. A chance of showers. Tue night - SW winds 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Wed night - SW winds 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and seas higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 1232 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Benign marine wind and sea conditions will continue through this weekend. Scattered showers and Thunderstorms will occur Sun thru Tue due to several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating, and the daily sea breeze. Bermuda high pressure and the piedmont trof will combine to produce modest sw winds late Tue thru Fri.

FXUS62 KILM 050612 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 212 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will occur this weekend due to several upper level disturbances, diurnal heating, and the daily sea breeze. Dry high pressure will build overhead by Wednesday with well above normal temperatures likely during the middle and late portions of next week. Rain chances increase towards the end of next week due to an approaching frontal system.

UPDATE
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this update.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
Mid level convergence and accompanying moisture axis currently inland (aiding ongoing showers) will shift eastward towards the coast overnight as ridging off to the east begins to move southward. This will lead to widespread PWATs over 1.6" across the FA for Sunday. Will see showers move onshore across northeast SC overnight, spreading northward into Cape Fear region by morning. Well above normal low temps tonight in the mid 60s due to clouds and showers. Despite increased cloud coverage tomorrow morning with ample low level moisture, there should be enough sunshine tomorrow afternoon to lead to another day of diurnal convection, including coastal counties this time along sea breeze. High temps around 80F Sunday.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
Unsettled weather continues through the short term period.
Moisture advection picks up Mon ahead of the next shortwave. The higher PWATs paired with the more saturated soils due to continued rain could support the threat of some localized heavier downpours. The shortwave will move offshore by Tues morning with ridging building in behind it. Lingering instability and moisture support continued scattered showers and storms through the day Tuesday. Highs in the low to mid 80s with lows in the mid 60s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
Quiet but hot weather through midweek as the ridge amplifies aloft with drier mid level air and subsidence. Highs will increase into the 90s with decent humidity. Still no heat advisory concerns with the current forecast. Current forecast is 2 deg off the record high for Wilmington NC Wed, but high clouds might make it hard to get any warmer. High clouds look to also be overhead Thurs aftn, so didn't go as high as the NBM with highs. An approaching cold front increases rain chances towards the weekend, the frontal passage currently expected sometime Saturday.

AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
VFR will dominate the pre-dawn hrs but VCSH will be highlighted at appropriate terminals based on latest 88D displays. Looking at eventual MVFR ceilings and VCSH threat by and after daybreak Sun across all terminals. Will indicate prevailing -shra but at only 6sm prevailing vsby. Will introduce a prob30 for a TSRA threat, during the mid to late morning thru mid to late afternoon across appropriate terminals. Have included vrb15g25 kt wind threat within the prob30 tsra threat. Will continue the vcsh threat after sunset and thru the evening for just the coastal terminals. Inland terminals should see cloud improvements to mid and upper levels. Winds generally SE-SSE 4 to 6 kt early this morning, becoming/increasing to SSE-S 6 to 10 kt during daylight Sun and diminish to 5 kt or less after sunset.

Extended Outlook...Scattered convection will bring periodic visibility and ceiling restrictions Mon into Tue. Otherwise, looking at VFR dominating outside the pcpn and becoming the mainstay late Tue thru Thu.

MARINE
Through Sunday...Onshore flow strengthens a bit tonight into Sunday as offshore high pressure shifts southward, with SSE winds around 10- 15 kts and some sea breeze enhancement closer to the coast Sunday afternoon. Scattered showers, with isolated thunderstorms, will move in from the south across coastal waters after midnight and continue through early Sunday before diminishing. 2 ft seas this evening increase to 3 feet by morning as SE wind wave builds, with weak E swell persisting.

Sunday Night through Thursday...SW flow 10-15 kts expected through the period, with mild enhancement in the winds during the afternoons due to the sea breeze. Seas 2-3 ft increasing to 3-5 ft through Wed into Thurs due to an increasing southerly wind wave (3-5 ft at 5- 6 seconds) and a weaker long period swell from the ENE.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Yaupon Beach
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Sat -- 04:10 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:47 AM EDT     5.17 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:19 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:51 AM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:16 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:19 PM EDT     5.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:24 PM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
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Yaupon Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

Holden Beach
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Sat -- 04:11 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:40 AM EDT     4.84 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:58 AM EDT     -1.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:17 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:14 PM EDT     5.19 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:59 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 11:28 PM EDT     -1.20 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Holden Beach, North Carolina, Tide feet

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