Saturday, August17, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:37AMSunset 8:01PM Saturday August 17, 2019 10:42 PM EDT (02:42 UTC) Moonrise 8:30PMMoonset 7:21AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 737 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Sunday morning...
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms, mainly this evening.
Sun..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms after midnight.
Mon..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..S winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..S winds 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 737 Pm Edt Sat Aug 17 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A stationary front will linger just inland from the coast through the weekend, before finally dissipating as high pressure remains offshore early to mid next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 172322
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
722 pm edt Sat aug 17 2019

Synopsis
A front will meander across the carolinas through Monday before
slowly weakening into a surface trough. A cold front will move
in from the northwest on Friday and will stall along the coast.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through Sunday
before the storm coverage becomes more scattered Monday through
Saturday.

Update
Forecast appears to be in good shape. Rain is likely over for
the western half of the area. Meanwhile areas along the coast
will have rain return after this brief lull as low pressure
currently over savannah river moves up the coast. 18z WRF hits
the CAPE fear region pretty hard and kltx storm total rainfall
shows this has been where the heaviest rain has occurred thus
far. Short fused flood advisories appear likely overnight-but
cannot rule out ff watch should upstream convection start
congealing towards the WRF solution.

Near term through Sunday night
Main concern for the next 36 hours is the potential for heavy rain
in developing showers and thunderstorms.

Stationary front positioned over the carolinas has remained
unchanged in position from 24 hours ago and is expected to change
very little into Sunday with plenty of atmospheric moisture present,
leading to humid conditions with chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly along and east of i-95, with coastal areas
along the highway 17 corridor having an increased chance for
precipitation. Model forecasts are in good agreement and confidence
is high for showers and thunderstorms to produce heavy rain at times
with the potential for minor flooding, especially for low lying or
poor drainage locations, if storms continue to pass over the same
areas.

Cloud cover along the stationary boundary will lead to a lack of
sunshine at times with cooler weather. Patchy fog is possible with
abundant moisture and high relative humidities overnight tonight and
into Sunday morning. Afternoon highs through Sunday afternoon will
be near to slightly below average for this time of year in the mid
to upper 80s and just above 90 in some locations.

Short term Monday through Monday night
The frontal boundary that has focused the precipitation the
last few days will weaken to a trough, and the deeper moisture
will be shunted off the coast. At the surface, southwest winds
will continue with a sea-breeze developing late Monday morning
and continue into the evening. The precipitable water falls from
+2" to 1.75" and the models are indicating convection to
continue but be more scattered in coverage. Monday appears to
have the smallest chance of showers and thunderstorms for the
week.

High temperatures will range from the middle 90s west of
interstate 95 to the mid and upper 80s at the beaches. Lows on
Monday night will fall to the lower 70s inland to the middle 70s
at the coast.

Long term Tuesday through Saturday
The region will continue to stay in the break of the 500 mb
high-pressure ridge through the period. At 850 mb, streamlines
show southwest flow continuing and below 2.5km a sea-breeze
develops each day.

The precipitable waters that were ~1.75"on Monday will rebound
to more normal values which are just above 2". Models continue
to show a chance of showers and thunderstorms each day. As a
frontal boundary approaches the area on Friday and stalls across
the area on Saturday an increase in coverage of thunderstorms
is likely.

High temperatures this period will range from the lower 90s
inland to mid to upper 80s at the beaches Tuesday through
Friday. Saturday will be slightly cooler with highs in the upper
80s inland and middle 80s at the immediate beaches. Low
temperatures will be from the lower 70s west of interstate 95 to
the middle 70s in the coastal counties.

Aviation 00z Sunday through Thursday
Tropical low pressure system will ride northward along the
stationary front stalled just onshore overnight. This will
create multiple showers and storms along the coast and this
will increase in coverage as the marine bl develops. By morning,
the stationary front will slide offshore and NW winds behind
this front will usher in slightly cooler air and morning
stratus. Expect MVFR ifr across much of the area, improving to
vfr soon thereafter. With the front positioned slightly
offshore, there should only be a few clouds around for the day
on Sunday with a couple of isolated storms along the sea breeze.

Extended... Moisture will move back in on Monday leading to
enhanced chances of rain and morning stratus br. Afternoon
showers and storms possible through much of the extended period
along with morning stratus br.

Marine
Main concern for the next 36 hours is developing thunderstorms
offshore, as well as concerns for small craft with gusts up to 25
kts at times. Waves out of the south to southwest at significant
heights of 4 to 6 feet at 7 seconds through tonight decreasing to 3
to 5 feet Sunday. Light swell from the southeast around 10 seconds.

Southwest winds for the next 36 hours from the southwest between 5
and 15 mph with gusts approaching 25 kts at times, especially during
the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms likely as a stationary
front inland allows for unstable weather. Waves and winds could be
locally higher in thunderstorms.

Monday through Thursday the coastal waters will continue be on
the north side of the bermuda high. The surface high-pressure
field's orientation will allow for southwest winds 10 knots or
less with a southerly wind developing close to the coast as the
sea-breeze develops through early Friday with an increase in
winds to 10 to 15 knots late Friday into Saturday as a frontal
boundary approaches the coast and stalls.

Seas are expected to be 3 feet on Monday and 2 to 3 feet
Tuesday through Thursday. Wave components will be a southwest
wind-wave between 2 and 3 feet and a southeast swell around 1.5
feet through the period.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... None.

Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 8 am edt Sunday for amz250-252-254-
256.

Synopsis... Rh
update... mbb
near term... Mck
short term... Rh
long term... Rh
aviation... 21
marine... Mck rh


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41119 9 mi112 min 84°F5 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi94 min SSW 7.8 G 16 79°F 84°F1015.3 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi54 min 82°F
41108 34 mi42 min 84°F6 ft
WLON7 39 mi60 min 77°F 85°F1015.7 hPa
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi54 min WSW 2.9 G 5.1 79°F 83°F1015.5 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi94 min S 12 G 18 80°F 83°F1015.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi62 min 83°F4 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi50 minWSW 101.75 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist79°F75°F88%1015.3 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi67 minESE 410.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F74°F95%1015.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCRE

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS7SW7S11SW10SW7SW10W4SW4S9SW4W7W4W3CalmSW8SW9SW5SW5S6SE6S8S9S7SW10
1 day agoCalmSW8W4SW4W4CalmCalmE4NE4CalmCalmSW7SW4S8SW6SW12S12SW14SW13SW13SW16N15
G21
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4CalmCalmSW5SW3SW36SW8W33CalmS6S10S11S12SW5W5CalmN3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Little River (town), ICWW, South Carolina
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Little River (town)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:32 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 10:07 AM EDT     4.36 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:36 PM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:30 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:30 PM EDT     4.82 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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43210.40.41.12.33.344.44.23.62.81.910.50.41.12.23.44.34.84.8

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:11 AM EDT     0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 06:37 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 09:43 AM EDT     4.57 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:15 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:29 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:06 PM EDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.82.81.70.80.30.61.62.83.84.44.64.23.52.61.60.80.40.61.62.83.94.754.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.