Saturday, January25, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:15AMSunset 5:40PM Saturday January 25, 2020 8:46 AM EST (13:46 UTC) Moonrise 7:57AMMoonset 6:26PM Illumination 0% Phase: New Moon; Moon at 0 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 700 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
.small craft advisory in effect until 11 am est this morning...
Today..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft this afternoon.
Tonight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Mon..W winds 10 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft, then 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 1 foot, then 2 ft.
AMZ200 700 Am Est Sat Jan 25 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will push offshore this morning with small craft advisory conditions continuing over area waters. High pressure then builds in from the west for this weekend, allowing for improving marine conditions.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 251132 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 632 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

SYNOPSIS. A drying trend, west winds, and temperatures slightly above normal can be expected today, in wake of a departing storm system. Temperatures will turn cooler tonight as cold air filters in. Generally fair and dry this upcoming week, with exception of shower chances Monday and again late week, as several disturbances track overhead. Temperatures will run close to normal for late January this upcoming week.

UPDATE. Drying trends on tap, down-slope wind flow to warm temps into the low 60s along the coast and coastal interior, a little cooler well inland, 57-59 for max-T today. These items appear accounted for in current forecasts, and no big changes expected with the early morning updates, on this last Saturday of January 2020.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Rain will slide farther offshore with the front over the next few hours, allowing for a dry daytime period today alongside decreasing clouds and high temps in the upr 50s/lwr 60s.

Continued dry into tonight and Sun as sfc high pressure builds in from the west. Expect light west winds under a partly/mostly sunny sky and temps maxing out in the mid/upr 50s Sun. Low temps tonight in the mid/upr 30s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/. The short term and the long term forecast will be very active as several mid and upper-level disturbances cross the southeast United States. The first shortwave will move from the Upper Plains to the Carolinas on Monday and a 150-knot jet streak will be coincident with this wave on Monday. The precipitable water will increase to 0.75" to 1.00" which is around the 75% moving average for the last half of January, but the QPF from the system will be low with less than 0.10" forecasted. The GFS and ECMWF ensemble both show the QPF chances of greater than 0.10" are between 30% and 50% over northeast South Carolina and less in southeast North Carolina.

Low Temperatures: Sunday Night: Upper 30s inland and lower 40s at the beaches. Monday Night: Middle 30s inland and the upper 30s at the beaches.

High Temperatures: Monday: 54°F to 58°F.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. The extended forecast will continue with an active sub- tropical jet stream with a weak disturbance passing across the Carolina Wednesday into Thursday. The deterministic GFS and ECMWF are both still inconsistent with each other and even their ensembles. The models depict possible showers Wednesday into Thursday but with low confidence in timing stayed with lower PoP chances. The models continue to develop a deep cutoff low near the Big Bend area of Texas by Thursday night. At this point, the ECMWF solutions and the GFS solutions diverge through the remainder of the forecast period. Both develop an upper-level low that moves across south Texas, and a surface low developing over the eastern gulf. The ECMWF develops a single surface low, similar to a Miller Type A configuration while the GFS has modified Miller Type B pattern with an inland low and a coastal low forming off Cape Hatteras. As one can deduce, the model confidence on the weekend storm is low. Even with these systems and confidence, the temperatures are expected to be near normal for this time of the year.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Perhaps lingering MVFR at coastal terminals at the very onset of the TAF period, otherwise full VFR expected this TAF cycle, aft 14z all terminals. WSW-WNW winds today 6-10 kt, a few gusts to 18 kt in afternoon, great VSBYs this TAF period.VFR tonight with no VSBY restrictions anticipated.

Extended Outlook . VFR this weekend, some restrictions are possible Monday as a weak frontal system impacts area with scattered rain showers, mainly MVFR cigs, or briefly VSBY.

MARINE. Today through Sunday: A Small Craft Advisory continues as planned today, for significant seas up to 6 ft due to S wind waves combining with a 12-13 second 3- 4 ft E swell. Seas will slowly subside through the day as a cold front pushes offshore and the S winds early this morning transition to westerly. 10-15 kt winds this aftn and tonight become just ~10 kt for Sun, with seas then down to 2-4 ft as the easterly swell weakens.

Sunday Night through Wednesday: High pressure will build over waters with a lee-side trough in the western Carolinas. This pattern will veer the winds overtime from the southwest to northwest. Wind speeds will be less than 15 knots and seas through this period are expected at 3 to 4 feet Sunday Night and slowly drop to 2 to 3 feet Monday into Tuesday and 1 to 2 feet on Wednesday. Even with mainly offshore flow, the Wave Watch 3 produces a 10-second easterly swell of 2 to 3 foot Monday and slowly diminish this easterly swell to 1 to 2 feet by Wednesday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for AMZ254- 256. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST this evening for AMZ250- 252.



SYNOPSIS . MJC UPDATE . 8 NEAR TERM . MAS SHORT TERM . RH LONG TERM . RH AVIATION . Colby MARINE . MAS/RH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41119 9 mi56 min 52°F3 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi38 min W 5.8 G 9.7 52°F 52°F1015.4 hPa
SSBN7 10 mi24 min 3 ft
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi46 min 51°F
41108 34 mi46 min 54°F4 ft
WLON7 39 mi46 min 51°F1014.1 hPa (+2.0)
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi46 min W 6 G 11 53°F1013.4 hPa (+2.0)
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi38 min WNW 9.7 G 16 55°F 53°F1013.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi36 min 53°F5 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi53 minN 010.00 miFair47°F46°F97%1015 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi51 minWSW 310.00 miFair50°F46°F89%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCRE

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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1 day agoN7N8N7NE10NE9NE7N6N7N5NE6NE5NE6NE5NE5NE5NE6NE7NE7NE7NE7NE8NE8NE7NE5
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--N7N6N6N8NE10N9NE11NE10NE12NE10N9N7NE5N5N8N6

Tide / Current Tables for Little River (town), ICWW, South Carolina
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Little River (town)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:31 AM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:56 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:38 AM EST     4.83 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:09 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:27 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:46 PM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.4-0.2-0.20.51.7344.74.84.43.52.41.30.4-0.10.21.12.23.23.843.62.9

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:10 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:15 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:14 AM EST     5.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:48 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:26 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 08:22 PM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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10.1-0.3-012.33.54.554.94.33.32.10.90.1-00.51.62.73.64.14.13.62.7

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.