Saturday, January16, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Shores, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:18AMSunset 5:32PM Saturday January 16, 2021 3:26 AM EST (08:26 UTC) Moonrise 9:56AMMoonset 9:10PM Illumination 9% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 3 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ254 Coastal Waters From Little River Inlet To Murrells Inlet Sc Out 20 Nm- 1131 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 3 am est Saturday through late Saturday night...
Overnight..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sat night..W winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Sun..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun night..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Mon night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
AMZ200 1131 Pm Est Fri Jan 15 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A cold front will move off the coast late tonight. Strong west winds will build across the area Saturday as high pressure builds in from the west. A few gusts may approach gale force. A secondary cold front will result in small craft advisory conditions again late Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Shores, NC
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location: 33.95, -78.59     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 160751 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 251 AM EST Sat Jan 16 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cooler and drier weather will persist through the weekend. A second and dry cold front will maintain seasonably cool and fair conditions through early next week. As weakening high pressure slips offshore, a warming trend will follow mid through late week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/. Radar and mesonet data all suggest up to six-tenths of an inch of rain fell last night as Gulf moisture was pulled northward ahead of a cold front. This boundary and its rain is now well offshore, however a shallow layer of moisture left behind has led to dense fog across the Pee Dee region into Robeson and Bladen counties. Increasing westerly winds should scour out the majority of this fog before daybreak, and a Dense Fog Advisory is in effect through 6 am. For the remainder of the day, mainly sunny skies this morning will cloud over this afternoon as very steep lapse rates help develop a high stratocumulus/low altocumulus deck at the top of a very deep (6000-7000 foot) mixed layer. Cold advection throughout the day will drop 850 mb temps down to -5C by late afternoon while wind gusts of 30-35 mph tumble down from aloft. Highs should only reach 49-53.

Westerly winds should diminish after sunset with lows falling into the upper 20s to lower 30s. The approach of an upper level disturbance and secondary cold front from the west Sunday afternoon could lead to an increase in mid and high clouds. Sunday's temps are not expected to be too different than today with 49-52 forecast.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. The short term period will be cool and dry as another mid level low develops in the Ohio Valley replacing the one it kicks out today. The low will open up and move out early next week but not before bringing another reinforcing surge of cool air. With no pops in sight, highs Monday will be in the lower 50s if not more like near 50. At or below freezing temperatures Tuesday will be followed by middle to upper 50s during the afternoon. Once again within a few degrees of normal albeit the few degrees representing the cool side.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. A split mid level flow will develop toward the middle of next week with a baroclinic zone setting up west to east in the vicinity, which is the operative word, of the Tennessee Valley extending into the Carolinas. I'm liking the consistency of the ECMWF with the wetter solution as is WPC. The operational GFS has now shifted south with the front. The good chance pops with highest values Friday remain in place. Temperatures will be tricky with the front in the area but once again favor the more muted or less variation of the EC.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Dense fog has developed across interior North and South Carolina and will likely impact operations at the FLO and LBT airports now through 09-10z. Increasing westerly winds and drier air should begin to erode the fog there before daybreak. Along the coast a wall of broken low stratus is advancing eastward and should cause periodic IFR ceilings at CRE and MYR through 10z, and at ILM through 12z. After 12z VFR conditions are expected at all airports, however strong westerly winds gusting over 25 knots are expected to develop around 15z, lasting through sunset.

Extended Outlook . VFR.

MARINE. Tonight through Sunday . Falling pressures associated with low pressure off the Mid-Atlantic coast contrasts strongly with high pressure building east along the Gulf Coast. This will to increasing westerly winds across the coastal waters today. Model support is high for winds to increase to 25-30 knots this afternoon into this evening. North of Myrtle Beach there is moderate support in models for occasional gusts to 35 knots during this time as well, and this necessitates a Gale Warning beginning at 1 pm. Although model support is weaker for gale force gusts south of Myrtle Beach, a collaborative forecast approach with NWS CHS means I'll raise a gale warning all the way south to the South Santee River too. The strongest winds are expected between 1 pm and 9 pm, with decreasing wind speeds overnight into Sunday morning. Wind speeds should begin to pick up again Sunday afternoon in advance of a secondary cold front.

Sunday through Tuesday . A southwest flow of 15-20 knots will be in place Sunday evening as another shortwave and surface trough rotate through the area Monday. The west to northwest flow that develops Monday afternoon may briefly eclipse 20 knots but overall the same 15-20 knot range should suffice. Beyond this winds should decrease in magnitude but direction will be the challenge with a front aligned west to east. Overall significant seas will be highest early coincident with the stronger winds and may very briefly touch small craft criteria Monday then trend downward.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for SCZ017-024-033-058-059. NC . Dense Fog Advisory until 6 AM EST early this morning for NCZ087-096-099. Coastal Flood Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 2 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ107. MARINE . Gale Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM EST this evening for AMZ250-252-254-256.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . SHK LONG TERM . SHK AVIATION . TRA MARINE . TRA/SHK


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 10 mi79 min NW 7.8 G 12 44°F 55°F1005.9 hPa
MROS1 - 8661070 - Springmaid Pier, SC 27 mi57 min 47°F
41108 34 mi57 min 55°F4 ft
MBIN7 39 mi57 min W 4.1 G 6 46°F 1003.2 hPa
WLON7 39 mi57 min 45°F 47°F1005.3 hPa
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 42 mi102 min WNW 1.9 48°F 987 hPa47°F
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 46 mi57 min WSW 4.1 G 6 48°F 53°F1004.8 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 48 mi79 min WNW 9.7 G 12 47°F 53°F1004.8 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 48 mi50 min 53°F2 ft

Wind History for Springmaid Pier, SC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
North Myrtle Beach Grand Strand Airport, SC12 mi34 minW 50.50 miFog46°F46°F100%1006 hPa
Whiteville, Columbus County Municipal Airport, NC24 mi32 minSW 310.00 miPartly Cloudy41°F40°F97%1006.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KCRE

Wind History from CRE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW5SW4CalmCalmCalmS8SW10S12S11S10S10S8SW12SW14
G19
CalmW6W9SW3W6CalmW5W43W5
1 day agoW6W5SW4W5W4W5W6W7NW5W736S7SW6S4CalmSW8SW6CalmCalmW6W6W4SW7
2 days agoNW5NW4W3NW33NW3CalmCalmSW3NW454S6SW5SW8W4CalmNW4W3W3W4W4W3W5

Tide / Current Tables for Little River (town), ICWW, South Carolina
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Little River (town)
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:32 AM EST     -0.21 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:19 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:38 AM EST     4.73 feet High Tide
Sat -- 05:08 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:52 PM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.32.41.40.5-0.1-0.10.61.8344.64.74.33.42.31.20.3-00.21.12.23.23.84

Tide / Current Tables for Dunn Sound, Little River Inlet, South Carolina
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Dunn Sound
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:11 AM EST     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:18 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:55 AM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 10:14 AM EST     4.95 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:47 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:29 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 09:10 PM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:28 PM EST     4.23 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.12.11.10.2-0.20.112.33.54.54.94.84.23.120.90.1-00.51.62.73.64.24.2

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station




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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.