Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kure Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:03PM Monday December 9, 2019 2:14 PM EST (19:14 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 95% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1025 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this evening...
This afternoon..S winds 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, mainly in E swell.
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, mainly in E swell.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely through the day.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
AMZ200 1025 Am Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal front will pull away to the north today. A cold front will approach the coast Tuesday, crossing the waters late Tuesday night and early in the morning Wednesday. This will be followed by strong high pressure, gusty ne winds, and large seas Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kure Beach, NC
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location: 33.96, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 091724 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1224 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. As a warm front lifts north, a pronounced warming trend will be felt this afternoon through Tuesday. A cold front early Wednesday will bring rain, followed by cooler air through mid week. Brief clearing and drying Thursday will be followed by a wet Gulf system Friday into Saturday. A drying trend is expected next Sunday and Monday.

UPDATE/. The dense fog advisory was extended along the coast south of Cape Fear as sea fog impinges the shoreline as seen in local coastal cams. In addition, a marine dense fog advisory was posted until 3 pm, for marine visibility less than 1 nm. Criteria over land is 1/4 mile or less. Because of the mild and moist air flow over the chilled inshore waters, dense sea fog will remain possible through Tuesday, most likely variable in coverage and density.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. A subtle mid-level shortwave making its way across the eastern Carolinas early this morning has pushed the surface trough and associated rainfall off to the northeast. Low clouds and fog will persist across the area through about 9 am. As of 07Z, visibilities have only dropped below 1/2 mile in a few locations, but if these become more widespread, a Dense Fog Advisory may be issued. Temperatures will hover in the mid 40s inland to around 50 across the coastal counties through daybreak, and may rise a few degrees near the coast as flow just of the surface becomes increasingly southerly.

Monday through Tuesday morning will remain dry, but with a good amount of mid/high clouds. Moisture will spread east ahead of a trough making its way across the southern plains on Tuesday, and this will bring just a slight chance of showers west of I-95 by late Tuesday afternoon. Deep south-southwesterly flow will propel temperatures well above climatology Monday and Tuesday. Highs will reach around 70 Monday, with widespread mid 70s away from coast on Tuesday.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Cold front will be moving through Tues evening with warm southerly flow abruptly turning to the north. Shallow cool air will advect in overnight Tues, but deep SW flow will continue aloft as deep mid to upper trough remains west of area. This will maintain low clouds and rain/drizzle into Wednesday with cool air mass settling in. Expect high temps reached in the morning, with cooling through the aftn leaving temps in the mid 30s by early Thurs morning. Steep inversion will be tough to break, but should see some clearing as mid to upper trough axis shifts off shore Wed night into early Thurs. This will bring deep layer drying with continued CAA and temps not even making it to 50 on Thurs with increasing sunshine.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Wedge in place Fri as coastal trough becomes more defined. Overall expect increasing isentropic lift as shallow dense cool air is overrun by increasing warm southerly flow. GFS is little quicker bringing back clouds and pcp on Fri, but overall expect rain to spread across the area from the south and should see periods of heavier rain late Fri into early Sat as warm front lifts north and potent shortwave and low pressure track up through the Southeast. The shortwave and low lifts off to the north late Sat into Sun with drying and warming on the back end. Pcp water values up to 1.65 inches Fri night will drop out in deep westerly flow Sat into Sun. Temps will reach into the 60s Fri and near 70 on Sat with 60s on Sunday with increasing sunshine through Sun. GFS is much warmer with overnight lows Thur night due to faster increase in clouds and pcp, while ECMWF has cooler temps, possibly below freezing in places, but drier. Therefore do not expect any fzn pcp issues early Fri.

AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Southerly winds are starting to increase across the area and as a result, fog is slowly dissipating from west to east. A strong wedge remains in place and therefore expect IFR CIGs to continue through the remainder of the afternoon. Do expect VFR to return this evening with the exiting high pressure system and resulting SFC warm advection. However, confidence is low on the exact timing. More stratus is possible tonight into Tuesday morning.

Extended Outlook . IFR/LIFR conditions expected at times Sun night into Mon as a coastal disturbance passes. MVFR conditions also possible again Tuesday as the next cold front approaches.

MARINE. Winds light and variable across the waters early this morning will become southerly around 10 knots by late morning as high pressure slides east off the New England coast. Will maintain the Small Craft Advisory for NC waters for now, as seas up to 6 ft persist beyond 10 nm. Flow will increase to around 15 kt out of the southwest on Tuesday between offshore high pressure and a surface cold front that will be crossing the Appalachians. Increasing warm advection over the nearshore waters will introduce the potential for sea fog to develop, and this will have to be monitored for the next couple of days.

Southerly flow ahead of cold front will keep seas between 3 and 5 ft Tues night. An abrupt shift to the north will accompany the cold front as it drops through the waters followed by a sharp increase in winds and seas through Wed aftn, possibly peaking near 6 to 9 ft in N-NE winds up around 25 kts or so as high pressure builds down from the north. Coastal front will become more defined on Fri as low pressure develops and moves up through the Southeast into the weekend. NE winds will veer around becoming on shore Fri night as coastal front pushes inland and north. Should see winds and seas drop a bit on Fri, but rise again in SW to W flow on the back end as it lifts north Fri night into Sat. Overall expect elevated winds and seas through much of this week.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for SCZ054- 056. NC . Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for NCZ110. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for AMZ250- 252-254-256. Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252.



UPDATE . MJC SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . CRM SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . 21 MARINE . RGZ/CRM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 17 mi66 min SSW 1.9 G 3.9 55°F 57°F1018.4 hPa
41108 17 mi44 min 56°F4 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 17 mi34 min 58°F5 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 19 mi62 min SE 5.1 G 5.1 56°F 56°F1017.5 hPa
WLON7 19 mi62 min 58°F 53°F1017.8 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi66 min E 3.9 G 5.8 52°F 55°F1018.6 hPa
41119 30 mi54 min 55°F3 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi66 min W 3.9 G 9.7 60°F 65°F1018.6 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 38 mi34 min S 1.9 G 5.8 69°F 73°F1017.8 hPa67°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC7 mi19 minN 010.00 miOvercast59°F58°F99%1017.9 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi21 minSSW 310.00 miFair63°F59°F87%1017.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN9N9N10N7N9N7N7N7NE5N3N5N5N4N5N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoNE8NE7NE8CalmN4N5N5NE5NE6NE8
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2 days agoW3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N7N5N8NE6NE8NE8
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Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:09 AM EST     0.22 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:57 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:44 PM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:16 PM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.51.32.33.23.84.13.93.32.61.81.10.60.50.91.82.63.23.63.53.12.41.60.9

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:30 AM EST     4.51 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:54 AM EST     0.47 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:03 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:49 PM EST     3.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.12.23.244.44.543.22.31.40.70.50.81.62.53.33.843.732.11.20.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (14,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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