Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kure Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:59PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 1:30 AM EDT (05:30 UTC) Moonrise 5:19PMMoonset 3:51AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 1250 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Rest of tonight..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Scattered showers with isolated tstms.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Numerous showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Widespread showers with isolated tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the evening.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, subsiding to 3 to 4 ft in the afternoon. Isolated tstms. Numerous showers, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1250 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A weak pressure pattern will give way to increasing south winds ahead of a cold front. Marine visibility may be reduced in occasional heavy rain. The front will cross the coast early Wednesday, followed by cooler and drier high pressure for the remainder of the period. Advisory marine conditions are likely Tuesday night through early Wednesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kure Beach, NC
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location: 33.96, -77.94     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 290528 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 116 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. Morning showers along the coast, followed by showers and TSTMs late today and tonight as a cold front moves through. A few storms could be strong. High pressure in wake of this front, will bring cooler and drier air through the remainder of the period.

UPDATE.

Pop values scaled back overnight, but am expecting convection off the water into the Cape Fear region aft 6z.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Rain chances will increase through most of the period though a small decrease/break in the action may be slated for midday- afternoon Tuesday. Back to the very near term; there is an area of disturbed weather heading towards southern zones likely a small batch of coincident WAA and PVA. It is fairly well initialized by guidance and there is fair agreement that it should at least partially fizzle out as it encounters less low level baroclinicity. Towards the latter half of tonight rain chances ramp up along the coast especially NC as this is where the theta-E ridge appears to set up. And while these showers may be of moderate intensity at times they will still be lacking in deep layer forcing. In fact the overall coverage is still expected to wane towards midday. Later Tuesday afternoon attention then shifts to the west as a strongly forced convective line approaches. This line likely hits southern zones right around dark so it will be a bit challenged to encounter much SBCAPE. Models have quite a bit of QPF however, likely a testament to not only some lingering MLCAPE as well as the strength of the forcing due to the vigor of the incoming mid level trough. The entire area remains outlooked for a Marginal Risk by SPC. WPC indicates slight for excessive rainfall save for Marginal at the coast as most areas away from the beaches are at 200-300 percent normal QPF for the last 2 weeks.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. Cold front will be making its way out of the area early Wednesday, with lingering rain possible in the morning before conditions dry considerably later in the day. Air column remains pretty dry Wednesday night into the weekend. Westerly winds develop behind the front at the surface, with a deep 500mb trough developing over the eastern US early Thursday. A second moisture limited cold front slated to move through the area Thursday night through early Friday that will usher in cooler weather for the weekend. Highs Wednesday in the low to mid 70s and in the upper 70s Thursday, with low temps mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. Front moves offshore early Friday with cool high pressure building in at the surface behind it, with upper trough still dominating the eastern US. 850 temps drop Friday night and temps 5 to 10 degrees below normal expected for the long term period, with highs between 70 and 75 degrees and lows in the low 50s. Most of the area expected to remain dry for the long term, with precipitable water values hovering around half an inch. Exception is slight chance pops along the coast late Sunday through Monday as some models are indicating a coastal low could form and move up the coast bringing some light rain.

AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. IFR ceilings and vsby through 14z, MVFR ceilings with VCSH aft 14z. 0z-4z line TSRAs to move west to east across area, local gusts to 40 kt possible with convection tonight.

Extended Outlook . Isolated showers Wednesday. VFR Wednesday through the weekend.

MARINE. Through Tuesday night . Still pretty quiet but southerly winds will increase in speed heading into tonight probably less due to any change in surface gradient but rather a slight strengthening and better vertical aligning of the flow off the surface. The building wind will be more pronounced on Tuesday as both a cold front approaches to tighten the gradient and the deeper layer wind fields start to pick up ahead of an approaching shortwave. This system will be moderately strong and as it continues to draw nearer Tuesday night conditions should deteriorate to Advisory levels late in the day or at night with regard to seas even as wind speeds appear to fall a bit short of criteria. Six foot seas also do not appear to materialize over all zones. Given the marginal/spotty nature have not hoisted SCA just yet hoping that another model cycle will yield more insight as to when/where it will be needed.

Wednesday through Saturday . Conditions will be improving quickly early Wednesday as front moves across the coastal waters. West winds 10-15 kt Wednesday and Wednesday night weaken Thursday and become southwesterly under 10kts ahead of a second, but dry, cold front Thursday night. NW winds under 10 kts Friday strengthen to northerlies 10-15 kts on Saturday with tightened pressure gradient around inland surface high. 4-6 ft seas early Wednesday will subside to 2-4 ft by Wednesday evening, with 2-3 ft seas in place for Thursday through Saturday. Seas combination of a 1-3 ft SE swell and a diminishing S wind wave, with N wind wave building on Saturday.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.



SYNOPSIS . ILM UPDATE . MJC NEAR TERM . mbB SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . Colby MARINE . mbB/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 17 mi22 min W 1.9 G 3.9 74°F 77°F1013 hPa
41108 17 mi60 min 77°F2 ft
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 17 mi23 min 77°F3 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 19 mi42 min SE 2.9 G 2.9 76°F 76°F1012.8 hPa
WLON7 19 mi42 min 73°F 72°F1013.2 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 30 mi22 min S 5.8 G 9.7 72°F 76°F1013.1 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 31 mi22 min SSW 12 G 18 80°F 79°F1013.3 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 37 mi30 min S 9.7 G 12 81°F1012.2 hPa (-0.3)

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC7 mi35 minN 010.00 miPartly Cloudy71°F68°F94%1013.5 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC22 mi37 minN 09.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F70°F90%1013.1 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4CalmSE3SE3CalmE3SE4E5E3SE3CalmCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--W5CalmS4SW3SW5S4SW4CalmCalmCalmNW3CalmCalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmN5N4NW5CalmN6NW6N5NW6N5CalmS7S4SW8SW6SW7W4CalmW5NW6NW4N3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:43 AM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:26 AM EDT     4.08 feet High Tide
Tue -- 01:56 PM EDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:55 PM EDT     4.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.30.70.611.92.83.6443.632.21.30.70.50.81.62.63.64.34.54.23.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Fort Caswell, Cape Fear River, North Carolina
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Fort Caswell
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:53 AM EDT     0.57 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:51 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:59 AM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:06 PM EDT     0.49 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:58 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:28 PM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.611.82.73.64.34.54.33.62.71.70.90.50.71.52.53.54.44.94.94.43.52.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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