Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:11AMSunset 5:37PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 7:51 PM EST (00:51 UTC) Moonrise 3:34PMMoonset 5:37AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 602 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt late this evening, then becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Patchy dense fog. Vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog in the morning. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 nm or less, increasing to 1 to 3 nm in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming N 20 to 25 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 5 ft after midnight. Showers with a slight chance of tstms. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Thu night..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sun..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 602 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. SEa fog, with pockets of dense, will be possible tonight into Wed morning. Low pressure will strengthen and create hazardous marine conditions Wednesday night through Thursday night. High pressure will build over the waters to end the week. Low pressure moving across the southeast will affect the waters early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 262026 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 326 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Intensifying low pressure system will move across the area Wednesday into early Thursday and will provide a good chance of a soaking rain. Canadian high pressure and a drying trend will follow late Thursday into early next weekend. Unsettled weather returns Sunday as a second system moves through.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Weak pre-frontal trough will work its way offshore and then stall during the next few hours. The trough will linger offshore overnight then lift back into the area Wed morning as low pressure moves northeast from the Gulf Coast. Isentropic lift and dynamics associated with the developing low will spread over the area on Wed. The only question is where will the core of heavy rain end up. Previously it looked as though it would setup over the forecast area, but recent trends have been a shift to the south and east with the area of heaviest rain. This is down to the location of the stalled surface boundary, a feature which could drift north and south at times during Wed.

Periods of moderate rain will be possible across the area as the low heads northeast, passing along or just off the coast Wed. The low will drag the stalled boundary off the coast in the form of a weak cold front during the day, with temperatures holding steady or slowly falling during the afternoon. However, coldest air will be much slower to arrive. A second cold front, associated with a surface low/shortwave combo passing north of the area, Wed night, will bring the cold air. This feature will also produce a second round of rainfall Wed night into Thu, especially across NC counties. As is typical of showers associated with passing shortwaves/troughs in winter there is a very small chance precipitation could end as snow in some areas late Wed night. However, a setup where the cold air is moving in as the moisture exits rarely produces any snow of significance. Confidence in whether or not the cold air will arrive in time to produce any snow is very, very low.

SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/. Rain will likely be offshore by daybreak Thursday as coastal low moves further away. Lingering clouds early will make way for a cool, breezy day as strong, low level northerly flow develops. Look for highs to remain in the mid to upper 40s, with gusts around 20-25 mph in the afternoon. Continued cold air advection and clear skies will allow temps to drop into mid 20s Thursday night. Surface ridging builds in from the north Friday and Saturday. Dry and cool weather continues Friday, with highs in the upper 40s Friday and lows in the upper 20s Friday night.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. Cool and dry conditions continue Saturday thanks to high pressure from the north. High is pushed offshore Saturday night as a low pressure system develops over the central US. Warm advection will allow temps to rebound to near or above normal Sunday, but will be tempered by increased clouds and rain as a warm front lifts north during the day. As parent low moves across lower Ohio Valley late Sunday, a Miller Type B cyclone appears to set up and a second low develops near our area. As low moves away, a cooling and drying trend looks to set up for Monday through Tuesday.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Still some lingering IFR ceilings inland. Mainly a mid cloud ceiling along the coast. Tonight, IFR conditions are expected to return, with high dewpoints. All terminals will lower to IFR before midnight, continuing through mid to late morning on Wednesday. Winds shift back to the northeast toward the end of the forecast period.

Extended Outlook . Occasional MVFR/IFR conditions thru Thu morning due to a stalled front in the vicinity and an area of low pressure moving along it. Mainly VFR remainder of Thu thru Sat as dry high pressure builds in. Breezy to possibly windy conditions Thu.

MARINE. Through Wednesday Night: Southwest winds 15 to 20 kt will start decreasing this evening as surface boundary moves over the waters, weakening the gradient. Winds will remain around 10 kt late tonight and for much of Wed as slow developing low moves across the area. Winds veer to northeast during Wed as the low approaches and remain northerly following passage of a cold front late Wed. Gradient will start to tighten Wed night as second low moves off the coast and cold advection sets up. West to northwest winds in the wake of the front will increase to 20 to 25 kt late Wed night with gusts pushing 30 kt. Small Craft Advisory looking like a good possibility at some point, Wed night, but could end up being a bit later, more like Thu morning. Confidence in timing is on the low side. For now will hold off issuing a SCA, but confidence in timing will increase during the next 24 hours. Seas 3 to 5 ft this afternoon will gradually subside overnight in response to decreasing wind speeds. Seas 3 to 4 ft into Wed before dropping closer to 3 ft during the day. Increase in winds Wed night builds seas to 4 to 6 ft by Thu morning. Thursday through Sunday . Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to continue through late Thursday as offshore low pressure system moves further away , with north winds 20-25 kts, gusts in the upper 20s and seas 4-6 ft. Conditions improve Thursday night as pressure gradient weakens and high pressure begins to build in from the north for Friday and Saturday. NNW winds 10-15 kts Friday with seas 2-4 ft, weakening to 10 kts out of the N-NE Saturday with seas 1-2 ft. High pressure moves offshore Sunday as a second low pressure system approaches Sunday allowing for return flow to develop. E winds around 10 kts Saturday night veer to the S 15-20 kts by Sunday afternoon, with seas building to 4-6 ft by the afternoon.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . III SHORT TERM . VAO LONG TERM . VAO AVIATION . 43 MARINE . III/VAO


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MBIN7 5 mi292 min W 8 G 13 65°F 1010.2 hPa (-0.0)
NOXN7 - North Carolina Reserve, NC 9 mi307 min W 6 65°F 992 hPa62°F
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi284 min WSW 9.7 G 14 56°F 51°F1010.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi285 min 51°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi292 min WSW 11 G 15 65°F 51°F1010.4 hPa (-0.0)
WLON7 14 mi292 min 67°F 48°F1010.9 hPa (+1.7)
41108 22 mi292 min 55°F6 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi284 min 58°F 55°F
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 33 mi284 min WSW 12 G 16 52°F 53°F1011.4 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 41 mi272 min WSW 16 G 21 66°F 67°F1011.4 hPa63°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi57 minW 60.75 miFog/Mist57°F56°F97%1012.9 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi59 minSW 86.00 miFog/Mist63°F61°F93%1012 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW4----SW10SW11
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4NE7NE6NE6NE4NE5NE6NE5NE6NE3CalmCalmCalmSE3
2 days agoNE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmN4N4N3N4NE6NE6E7SE7E5SE7SE6E4SE3CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
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Tue -- 05:25 AM EST     4.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 05:36 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 11:55 AM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:44 PM EST     3.29 feet High Tide
Tue -- 11:57 PM EST     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.20.91.92.93.6443.62.821.10.50.20.61.32.12.83.23.332.41.50.70.1

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Tue -- 01:13 AM EST     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:37 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     3.95 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:12 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 02:07 PM EST     0.08 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:36 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 07:35 PM EST     3.46 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.2012.23.23.73.93.83.32.61.91.20.50.10.41.32.333.43.432.21.4

Weather Map
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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.