Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Carolina Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 5:03PM Monday December 9, 2019 3:19 AM EST (08:19 UTC) Moonrise 3:33PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 945 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through Monday evening...
Overnight..NW winds 10 kt. Gusts up to 20 kt late this evening. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers late this evening and early morning, then a chance of showers late. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late this evening, then 1 to 3 nm late.
Mon..E winds 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft. A slight chance of showers in the morning. Patchy fog in the morning with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Mon night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Patchy fog. A slight chance of showers in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers.
Wed..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft, building to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of showers through the day.
Thu..NE winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Fri..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 7 ft. Showers likely.
AMZ200 945 Pm Est Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. A coastal warm front will bring marine showers and isolated tstms this evening. This front will pull away to the north Monday. A cold front will approach the coast Tuesday afternoon, crossing the waters late Tuesday night and early in the morning Wednesday. This will be followed by strong high pressure, gusty ne winds, and large seas Thursday into Friday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Carolina Beach, NC
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location: 34.03, -77.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 090720 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 220 AM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A coastal warm front will move onshore tonight bringing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms followed by a significant warm-up well above normal Monday and Tuesday. A cold front will cross the coast late Tuesday and early on Wednesday, bringing additional rain. Brief clearing and drying Thursday, before a wet Gulf system dumps rain on the area Friday through Saturday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. Afternoon stratiform rain to transition to showers and isolated TSTMs into evening, but it doesn't appear a strong westward or inland push of the coastal front will occur, compared to the northward exit of this boundary tonight. As a result, impacts will mainly be observed across coastal SE NC in convective rainfall. Briefly this evening, rain could be periodically heavy, or cause ponding on highways between 630 PM and 930 PM.

Night-time temperature curves atypical and on the rise overnight, thus it looks like min-T values for the overnight period will occur early. Boundary lifts to the Outer banks Monday morning, with the onset of strong warm air advection, temperatures to surge into the 60s area wide Monday, and a few 70+ readings likely, favored over the NE SC interior. Low to silent pops Monday with little forcing to trigger, but max-T 9-12 degrees above normal about the region. By the beaches cooler because of current SSTs in the 50s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. Deep layer southwesterly flow will be strong enough Tuesday to push afternoon temperatures well into the 70s, some 15 degrees above climatology. Some guidance is even warmer than our forecast but given that it may end up being a rather cloudy day these numbers seem a little out of reach. This may hold especially true along the coast where sea fog or stratus appears possible. Rain will spread west-to-east across the area Tuesday night along and behind a cold front. Models have been quite consistent in showing the FROPA being a low QPF event.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. Impressive inversion sets up Wednesday as the area is plunged back into more seasonable airmass. The surface wedge weakens some on Thursday, possibly leading to the area's best chance at seeing some breaks of sunshine through the long term. Moisture returns Thursday night as isentropic upglide ramps up. Precip should hold off until Friday however, sparing the area from any P-type issues Thursday night. Model consistency over the weekend hasn't been great, the southern branch feature seemingly what they are struggling with. The GFS seems to lose it this run and now has a clean FROPA Friday driven by the northern branch. The EC has the low but oddly shoves it into the Yucatan peninsula. Regardless some prefrontal warm advection over the weekend should bring both warmth and rain chances.

AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Precip has shifted offshore, but IFR/LIFR conditions will linger along with the potential for some -DZ. Not expecting conditions to improve until generally after 13Z as winds increase some helping to improve VSBYs, and a gradual improvements in CIGs. Expecting VFR conditions to develop mid/late morning all terminals.

Extended Outlook . MVFR conditions possible Tuesday as the next cold front approaches and toward the end of the week as low pressure may impact the area.

MARINE. Advisories were dropped for the NE SC waters, but do expect 5 foot seas offshore and occasional gusts to 20 kt tonight, warranting a healthy dose of caution. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for SE NC waters for 4-7 ft seas, highest offshore. Marine visibility will be reduced to less than a mile in heavy rain at times this evening, pulling farther offshore and to the north after midnight. Wave direction to become ESE-SE overnight, 4-7 feet, highest SE NC waters and offshore, this regime holding into Monday. The advisory mainly for sea heights, as 'sustained' winds most everywhere will hold below 20 kt.

Prefrontal southwesterly flow will not weaken quickly enough for advisory-worthy 6 ft seas to drop out of all zones on Tuesday. This may happen Tuesday night but advisory will likely remain as the post- frontal northerly flow will ramp up into criteria. Adverse conditions will remain for the rest of the forecast period as the gradient over the waters remains pinched on the eastern periphery of the wedge of high pressure over the landmass.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . ILM NEAR TERM . CRM SHORT TERM . RGZ LONG TERM . RGZ AVIATION . CRM MARINE . RGZ/CRM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 12 mi71 min NNW 12 G 23 51°F 57°F1022 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 12 mi39 min 57°F7 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 14 mi49 min NW 8 G 11 50°F 55°F1021.6 hPa
WLON7 14 mi49 min 48°F 51°F1022.4 hPa
41108 22 mi49 min 56°F4 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi71 min SSW 9.7 G 16 67°F 65°F1020.4 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 33 mi71 min NNE 7.8 G 9.7 48°F 55°F1023.2 hPa
41119 34 mi119 min 55°F3 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 42 mi29 min WNW 7.8 G 14 59°F 74°F6 ft1022 hPa57°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Brunswick County Airport, NC11 mi24 minN 00.50 miFog48°F47°F98%1022.7 hPa
Wilmington International Airport, NC17 mi26 minNNW 40.50 miFog49°F48°F97%1022.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSUT

Wind History from SUT (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmN4N7N5N8NE6NE8NE8
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2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW5W4W3SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmN7NE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:20 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:54 AM EST     4.18 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:21 AM EST     0.44 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:13 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:30 PM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.62.63.444.23.93.32.51.60.90.50.61.222.83.43.73.63.12.31.50.70.2

Tide / Current Tables for Campbell Island, North Carolina
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Campbell Island
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM EST     -0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:21 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:43 AM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:32 PM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:32 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:02 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 07:05 PM EST     3.68 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.1-0.10.41.52.73.43.93.93.62.92.11.40.80.20.20.922.93.43.73.52.81.91.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.