Tuesday, September22, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 7:09PM Tuesday September 22, 2020 6:02 AM EDT (10:02 UTC) Moonrise 11:51AMMoonset 10:06PM Illumination 26% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 309 Am Edt Tue Sep 22 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Wednesday morning...
Through 7 am..N winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 8 ft.
Today..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 5 to 7 ft.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft.
Thu..W winds 5 kt, becoming sw in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft.
Fri..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
AMZ200 309 Am Edt Tue Sep 22 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Wind and sea conditions will begin to improve later today as canadian high pressure over new england rapidly weakens and hurricane teddy moves away. A much weaker high will shift off the east coast Thursday with onshore winds developing late in the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 220703 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 303 AM EDT Tue Sep 22 2020

SYNOPSIS. Canadian high pressure will slowly weaken across the region today through Wed. The high's center will push across and off the Carolina Coasts during the mid to late week period. This will result in winds subsiding and temperatures slowly moderating back to near normal by the end of the week. Moisture from the Gulf of Mexico may bring rain chances late this week and weekend followed by a weak cold frontal passage late Sun. A more powerful cold frontal passage will occur early next week. Ocean conditions will remain hazardous due to the combination of Hurricane Teddy's long period swell and large wind produced waves. Improving ocean conditions are expected later in the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. An upper level ridge extending from Tennessee northward across the Great Lakes will weaken rapidly today. This will allow the strong area of Canadian high pressure over New England to weaken as well. The breezy northeast winds we've been experiencing for the past couple of days will abate. Our airmass should become extremely dry today with precipitable water values falling to one-third of an inch and dewpoints mixing down into the lower- middle 40s away from the beaches. Under bright sunshine highs today should reach 72-74.

Very good radiational cooling conditions should develop tonight with lows falling into the upper 40s to near 50 inland, a little warmer along the coast. Cirrus will thicken up during the day Wednesday as upper level moisture from Tropical Storm Beta gets routed eastward across the Carolinas. The airmass will modify as low-level winds become more westerly and highs should reach 74-78, coolest at the beaches with a weak seabreeze.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. This period will feature a breakdown of the mid-level ridging with Gulf of Mexico moisture along with Beta moisture pulled up from the southwest, up and across the Carolinas. The lower levels remain dry with mainly mid and upper level cloudiness advecting across the FA. This shown nicely with various models RH time height series for locations across the FA. The NAM seems the drier of all the models and holds off with POPs until Fri whereas the GFS has low Pops Thu night. Of note, models keep Beta's sfc circulation or remnants of, back over the Gulf Coast States during this period. Basically the ILM CWA will remain under weak sfc ridging extending from the high's broad center offshore from the NC and SC Coasts. Will tend to remain on the drier side of model guidance during this period and keep low chance POPs mainly along and west of the I-95 corridor during later Thu night. As for min/max temps and dewpoints, will continue to see a moderating trend or phase. Both Wed night and Thu night lows will run 55-60 inland, 60 to 65 along the coast and daytime Thu highs in the upper 70s to around 80.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. The main belt of westerlies to remain north of the FA Fri thru Sat. Will have a weak 5H trof slide eastward off Northeast NC or the VA Capes late Sat, with the trof line pushing across the FA Sat aftn. Moisture does increase in the lower levels across the FA Fri into Sat under SE-S winds sfc thru 700mb. This will be enough to aid 20- 40 POPs across the FA Fri thru midday Sat. Borderline convective parameters and will include isolated thunder closer to the coast Fri and across the southernmost portion of the FA Sat. Models tend to absorb Beta's remnant circulation, and push it generally eastward across the southernmost portion of the FA, during Sat time-line? Difficult to say if this circulation remains an entity. Winds above 6H to remain WSW Fri thru Sat, becoming W to WNW Sat night thru Sun with weak mid-level ridging bouncing back Sat night thru Sun. Could see a decent dose of insolation Sun with some scouring of mid and upper level cloudiness. This may result in favorable convective parameters to warrant the threat for thunder across all of the FA Sun. Flow aloft begins to amplify Sun night thru next week as the main belt of westerlies begin to expand southward. Flow at all levels progged to veer to W to NW by late Mon. This primarily to occur after a weak sfc cold front pushes across the FA during the day Monday. Will keep POPs generally 20-30 percent Sun night up thru the weak CFP Mon. A much stronger cold front will be approaching the FA Tue. As for temps, cloudiness and potential pcpn will hold down temps by a category Fri, however Sat thru Mon, look for temps to reach the low to mid 80s which is at or a category above normal. Lows will run mid to upper 60s which is a cat or 2 above the norm.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. VFR conditions will continue with light northerly winds. Stratocumulus clouds will bases around 4000 feet AGL along the coast should dissipate shortly after daybreak.

Extended Outlook . VFR continues through mid week, winds easing Tuesday into Wednesday.

MARINE. Today through Wednesday . Canadian high pressure over New England will weaken rapidly over the next 12-24 hours as Hurricane Teddy moves toward its Canadian landfall. The high has been responsible for the strong northeast winds of the past couple of days. Wind speeds should diminish substantially throughout the day, down to 10 knots or less by late afternoon. Large swells from Hurricane Teddy should begin to diminish as the storm continues to accelerate northward across the Atlantic. It appears we can allow the Small Craft Advisory to drop in the Myrtle Beach area by noon today. Large seas necessitate leaving the advisory up a little longer for the Georgetown county coastal waters, and even longer in the Cape Fear area. A weak ridge will set up to our south Wednesday leading to light mainly offshore winds expected.

Wednesday Night through Saturday . Broad sfc high across the Carolinas at the start of this period will push offshore from the Carolinas Thu thru Sat. It will continue to ridge back across the local waters and onshore. The sfc pg will remain relaxed Wed night thru Fri, with speeds generally 5 to 10 kt. Some tightening will occur Fri night thru Sat, due to the approach of the remnants of Beta?, but more-so from the high's center retreating further offshore. Speeds should increase to 10-15 kt. In lieu of going variable in direction Wed night thru Fri, will indicate a "best" direction. During Fri, the sfc pressure pattern will yield a dominating SE wind direction which should extend into the weekend. Significant seas will be in a subsiding phase due to wind produced waves diminishing. And with Teddy's swell direction having become ENE- NE, parallel to the ILM CWA coastline, this will keep Teddy's hier swell offshore from the ILM CWA Coast. Overall, seas will subside to 3 ft or less by Thu morning and around 2 ft thru Thu night. With SE onshore flow Fri thru Sat, expect seas to build to 3 to 4 ft thruout. Dominating periods of 11 to 13 seconds thru Thu night followed by dominating 5 to 7 second period SE wind produced waves by Sat.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Steady northeast winds are maintaining a +1.0 to +1.5 foot water level anomaly along the beaches this morning. This should create another round of minor coastal flooding during today's noon high tide. Tides at Wrightsville Beach should easily exceed flood stage by three-quarters of a foot. At Myrtle Beach tides should approach the 7.5 foot MLLW flood stage, but social media posts yesterday indicate saltwater flooding occurred on streets in Garden City, SC with similar waters levels on the tide gauge.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for SCZ054-056. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106-108-110. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM EDT this morning through this evening for NCZ106-108-110. High Surf Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ107. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ256. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ254. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for AMZ250-252.

SYNOPSIS . DCH NEAR TERM . TRA SHORT TERM . DCH LONG TERM . DCH AVIATION . TRA MARINE . DCH/TRA TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . TRA


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi54 min NNE 19 G 25 58°F 76°F1022.9 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi25 min 76°F5 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi44 min N 14 G 19 55°F 73°F
WLON7 11 mi44 min 53°F 73°F
41108 26 mi32 min 76°F5 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi54 min NNE 18 G 25 65°F 79°F1022.7 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi54 min NNE 16 G 19 53°F 75°F1023.9 hPa
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi22 min NNE 14 G 18 80°F1021.6 hPa

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi69 minN 610.00 miFair52°F48°F86%1023.8 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi67 minNNW 810.00 miFair51°F48°F89%1024 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
Click for Map
Tue -- 05:49 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:18 PM EDT     4.90 feet High Tide
Tue -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:36 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.33.83210.30.20.61.52.73.74.54.94.84.23.22.21.20.60.61.11.92.83.6

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:38 AM EDT     4.21 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:12 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 12:50 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 01:21 PM EDT     4.77 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:59 PM EDT     0.51 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 11:06 PM EDT     Moonset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.14.23.83.12.11.20.50.20.41.22.33.44.34.74.74.23.32.41.40.80.50.81.72.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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