Tuesday, November12, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Sea Breeze, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:40AMSunset 5:11PM Tuesday November 12, 2019 5:10 PM EST (22:10 UTC) Moonrise 5:35PMMoonset 6:33AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 247 Pm Est Tue Nov 12 2019
.gale warning in effect through Wednesday morning...
Tonight..N winds 25 to 30 kt, increasing to 30 to 35 kt late this evening. Gusts to 40 kt possible. Seas 6 to 9 ft. Rain this evening.
Wed..N winds 25 to 30 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft in the afternoon.
Wed night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. A slight chance of showers after midnight.
Thu..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. A chance of rain.
Thu night..NE winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Rain likely.
Fri..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 20 to 25 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft, building to 6 to 9 ft. Rain.
Sat..N winds 25 to 30 kt. Seas 8 to 11 ft. Rain likely.
Sun..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt. Seas 6 to 9 ft, subsiding to 5 to 7 ft. A chance of rain through the day.
AMZ200 247 Pm Est Tue Nov 12 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Gale force northerly winds are expected tonight behind a strong arctic cold front. Winds will gradually diminish Wednesday as the arctic high approaches the east coast. Low pressure developing just offshore late Thursday through Saturday may bring a second period of strong winds potentially reaching gale force.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Sea Breeze, NC
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location: 34.08, -77.89     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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Fxus62 kilm 121937
afdilm
area forecast discussion
national weather service wilmington nc
237 pm est Tue nov 12 2019

Synopsis
A very cold airmass is currently building into the region.

Temperatures tonight will dip into the 20s in most areas and
highs Wednesday will only be in the mid 40s. A slight
moderation will occur Thursday into Friday but a coastal trough
will bring rain by Thursday night. The weekend looks unsettled
especially along the coast as a series of fairly strong areas of
low pressure form offshore.

Near term through Wednesday night
The strongest shot of arctic air we've seen so far this season is
making its way across the eastern carolinas now. A band of rain
consisting of tropical pacific and gulf of mexico moisture riding up
along the front should exit the CAPE fear coastline around 02z 9 pm
this evening. Total rainfall amounts in the 0.3 to 0.5 inch range
appear likely. There will be no precip-type issues as moisture
pushes offshore before the low-level or cloud-level freezing air
arrives.

This incoming arctic airmass is rather shallow with model soundings
showing the cold air will barely extend up to the 850 mb level.

Steep, well-mixed profiles tonight in breezy cold advection means
i'm following the upper end of MOS guidance tonight, with lows
expected to range from around 26 on the interstate 95 corridor to
around 30 on the coast. This should be the first freeze of the
season for most of the coastal counties, and a freeze warning
remains posted tonight.

The thermal trough should move across the area around sunrise
Wednesday, with neutral advection on north-northeasterly low level
winds expected during the day. Sunny skies are expected, but the
arctic airmass should only allow temps to rise to 44-48 degrees,
over 20 degrees below normal. It's even possible we'll tie a record
in wilmington for the coldest high temperature for the date...

november 13 -- coldest high temps on record
wilmington 46 in 1920
florence 48 in 2016
n. Myrtle beach 48 in 2013
lumberton 41 in 1907
winds just above the surface should turn easterly Wednesday night
with warm advection steadily occurring over top of the decoupled
nocturnal boundary layer. It's possible some low stratus could
develop near the coast as GFS model soundings show high relative
humidity values developing between 2000-3000 feet up where atlantic
moisture advecting onshore touches the cooler air near the surface.

Forecast lows have considerable uncertainty as it's tough to know
how much influence the ocean will have: 26-30 inland and lower to
middle 30s near the coast. No frost freeze issues will be
highlighted in forecast products as it's likely the growing season
will be over by Wednesday night.

Short term Thursday through Thursday night
Main high pressure center moves off to the NE but a ridge axis is
maintained into the carolinas for light NE winds. A coastal trough
will be developing and warm advection atop the NE boundary layer
will yield increasing cloudiness and perhaps a few showers, though
they appear to largely hold off until nighttime. Afternoon
temperatures will continue their below climatology trend, though
nowhere near the deviation of Wednesday. Nighttime lows will be
slightly milder than normal due to the cloud cover. Rainfall will
become more appreciable later Thursday night as isentropic lift
strengthens.

Long term Friday through Monday
Fairly potent southern branch trough crossing the gulf states on
Friday leading to moderate cyclogenesis off the coast along old
frontal boundary. Isentropic lift will allow rain to spread across
the area, most focused along the coast. As the surface wave begins
to accelerate off to the NE it largely becomes captured by the
upper low and the occlusion process begins. Coastal locales could
start having some gusty winds as this occurs as surface pressure
keeps dropping dynamically despite the occlusion. Rain should still
remain likely along the coast but inland areas could see rain
chances drop (a considerable inland coastal gradient in QPF will
also likely develop). The system ingests some of the chilly high
across the northeast us on Saturday which could end up quite chilly
in addition to windy and rainy. Sunday may see some improvement as
the system pulls away and rain chances dwindle and some breaks of
sunshine occur. Monday and Tuesday will still have considerable
trough energy over the southeastern u.S. But no real deep moisture.

A few dynamically-driven showers appear possible but so do breaks of
sunshine. Temperatures will run about a category below climatology,
mainly by day.

Aviation 18z Tuesday through Sunday
Sub-vfr conditions spreading across the CWA at the moment as
showers push eastward through this afternoon associated with a
strong sfc cold front. MVFR ceiling and visibility restrictions
will become ifr in spots and fluctuate between MVFR ifr lifr
this afternoon proportional to precip intensity. West and
northwesterly winds will become northerly, increasing in
strength from 10-15 knots to 15-20 knots overnight. A few gusts
up to 25 knots can be expected as the gradient continues to
tighten behind the aforementioned cold front. Once the main
shield of precipitation exits the region by midnight, expectVFR
conditions to return and last through the majority of the
period.

Extended outlook...VFR through the end of the week.

Marine
Winds have shifted northwesterly, but the true surge of arctic air
has yet to reach the coastal waters. Look for winds to increase
substantially between 3:30-4:30 pm as a wall of wind rushes off the
coast. Winds currently NW around 15 kt should increase to 25-30 with
gusts of 35-40 knots possible from late this afternoon through late
tonight. No changes have been made to the timing of the gale warning
posted for all area waters.

Seas currently 2-3 feet will build quickly in short period wind chop
this evening. This north wind wave at 4-5 seconds period should
become the dominant wave group tonight, and will contribute to
combined seas reaching 6-8 feet between 10-20 miles from shore late
tonight. Very rough conditions should last into Wednesday morning
before diminishing winds allow seas to subside Wednesday afternoon
and night.

Thursday and Thursday night will offer a relatively quiet period
compared to both preceding days as well as those that will
follow. High pressure moving off to the NE but extending a
ridge axis into the carolinas for a NE wind locally in the 10-15
kt range. These winds may weaken slightly with the approach of
a coastal trough. Low pressure will develop offshore on Friday
in response to a strong upper trough crossing the gulf states.

Small craft advisory appears likely. The weekend will bring even
more unsettled conditions as another system forms offshore and
stacks nearly vertically with the upper system, bringing its
movement to a halt. Increasing winds could call for gale warning
but even if not the strong persistent fetch will allow seas to
continue to build.

Tides coastal flooding...

large tidal ranges associated with this month's full moon in
combination with winds veering north-northeasterly Wednesday morning
may result in minor coastal flooding at the beaches. High tide
should occur around 7:20 am Wednesday.

The predicted astronomical tide is 1.1 to 1.5 feet below flood stage
at wrightsville beach and myrtle beach, however the background +0.5
to +0.7 foot tidal anomaly we've had all year plus a small wind-
driven surge may still push water levels above flood stage. Too much
uncertainty exists to raise an advisory just yet, but forecasts are
trending in that direction.

Ilm watches warnings advisories
Sc... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am est Wednesday for scz054>056-
058.

Nc... Freeze warning from 1 am to 9 am est Wednesday for ncz106>110.

Marine... Gale warning until 7 am est Wednesday for amz250-252-254-256.

Synopsis... mbb
near term... Tra
short term... mbb
long term... mbb
aviation... 21


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 10 mi63 min N 23 G 31 51°F 67°F1012.1 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 10 mi31 min 67°F4 ft
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 11 mi59 min NNW 14 G 19 48°F 65°F1012.6 hPa
WLON7 11 mi59 min 47°F 63°F1013.7 hPa
41108 26 mi41 min 68°F5 ft
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 29 mi63 min N 23 G 29 57°F 1010 hPa
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 35 mi63 min N 25 G 39 49°F 66°F1013.3 hPa
41119 35 mi51 min 66°F2 ft
41013 - Frying Pan Shoals, NC Buoy 45 mi41 min N 27 G 33 63°F 76°F1010.2 hPa58°F

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC14 mi78 minNNW 124.00 miRain Fog/Mist48°F45°F89%1013.4 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC14 mi76 minN 15 G 2710.00 miLight Rain49°F44°F86%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS4CalmCalmSW4S5--S3S5S6SW3SW3CalmCalmCalm--SW5--W13
G19
SW10NW17N13N19
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3W5SW5SW4S7SE64S7S4
2 days agoNW3N3CalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmN3N3Calm--------N3CalmCalmSW3NW3CalmSW4SW3S4

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington Beach, North Carolina
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Wilmington Beach
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Tue -- 12:42 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     4.62 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:37 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 01:14 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:09 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 07:05 PM EST     3.99 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.40.20.81.833.94.54.64.33.52.61.60.80.40.61.32.33.23.843.83.32.41.5

Tide / Current Tables for Reaves Point, North Carolina
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Reaves Point
Click for Map
Tue -- 02:05 AM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:33 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:41 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:50 AM EST     4.50 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:37 AM EST     Full Moon
Tue -- 02:37 PM EST     0.39 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:10 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 05:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 08:08 PM EST     3.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.20.50.20.51.52.73.74.34.54.23.62.71.810.50.4122.93.63.93.83.32.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.