Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Wrightsville Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:03AMSunset 8:28PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:23 PM EDT (00:23 UTC) Moonrise 7:18PMMoonset 4:21AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ250 Coastal Waters From Surf City To Cape Fear Nc Out 20 Nm- 716 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 2 ft.
Sun..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Isolated showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Wed..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers and tstms likely
Thu...se winds 10 kt, becoming s. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms through the night. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 716 Pm Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Weak high pressure will will cover the carolinas through the july fourth weekend with light winds and a 1-2 foot ese-se swell dominating. A weak cold front may bring a tstm late Sunday, but outside of tstms winds will be light to moderate. Low pressure along the gulf coast will begin to lift north next week, with increasing chances for tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Wrightsville Beach, NC
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location: 34.21, -77.79     debug


Area Discussion for - Wilmington, NC
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FXUS62 KILM 042328 AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 728 PM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. Seasonably hot and humid weather will continue through the weekend with only isolated showers or storms possible. Clouds and rain chances will increase significantly by Tuesday as low pressure moves north from the Gulf Coast to the Carolinas. A gradual drying and warming trend is expected next weekend as the low moves offshore.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/. Hot, but not record setting today. Slightly cooler Sunday as a weak cold front slips south and bisects the NE SC and SE NC zones. This to lead to a better chance of a TSTM, with an east to west boundary to fill in with convection Sunday afternoon, mainly from coastal SE NC to the NC/SC border near I-95. Isolated to scattered coverage of convection advertised in vicinity of this feature. Any convection that forms, will wane into late evening.

Holding on to slight chance of convection this evening from Pender to Bladen county, for potential outflow convection tonight from frontal TSTMs north of the area. Current visible shows deeper convection over the central NC, but struggling under the ridge.

As for minimum temperatures, right around normal or a degree or 2 above, under mainly clear sky and light winds. 2 meter RH forecast barely exceed 90% overnight, so fog to remain patchy or light, mostly along inland river-basins where better ground moisture sits.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. Weak mid and upper level low pressure centered across Arkansas on Monday will move eastward and directly across the Carolinas Tuesday and Wednesday. A remnant trough from a cold front that dropped south through the Carolinas a few days ago will return north from the Gulf Coast region. As these features converge along with increasing Gulf moisture, the result should be showers and t-storms becoming quite widespread by Tuesday. Temperatures on Monday should still reach the upper 80s across most areas, but by Tuesday the increase in clouds and precipitation should hold highs in the low-mid 80s, 5-7 degrees below normal.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Model diverge in how quickly they move the mid and upper level system off the Carolinas coast Wednesday through Friday. The 12z GFS is notably slower than the 12z Canadian or ECMWF in doing so, and this leads to deteriorating confidence in daily precip potential and temperature forecasts.

These differences could be due to how the Canadian and ECMWF both develop a well defined area of low pressure on the old surface trough along the South Carolina coast on Wednesday, moving it slowly off to the northeast Thursday and Friday. This pulls the upper level part of the system offshore more quickly than the GFS does, cutting off the Gulf moisture inflow and leading to a faster return to hotter, drier weather conditions Thursday and Friday. Fortunately, FSU cyclone phase diagrams do not suggest this system will acquire a warm core.

I have maintained high chances (70-80 percent) of rain in the forecast for Wednesday, but have decreased chances a little more quickly than GFS or model blended guidance indicates for Thursday and Friday. By Saturday, all guidance including the GFS shows the system east of our longitude with much hotter weather developing. Heat indices for Saturday should exceed 100 degrees inland.

AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. VFR through the 00Z TAF period with weak high pressure in the area. Isolated/widely scattered convection expected Sun aftn/evening along with a typical sea breeze. Otherwise, just some mid-level clouds with light winds.

Extended Outlook . Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms continue through the middle of next week . with the majority of activity during the aftn and evening. Potential for early morning fog over locations that receive rainfall within the prior 24 hrs.

MARINE. Favorable holiday weekend marine weather, sub-advisory conditions with only isolated TSTMs in the mix, mostly late Sunday, and mainly over land. Winds will gust in excess of 15 kt at times near shore, associated with the sea breeze Sunday afternoon. The wave spectrum will feature 1-2 ft ESE waves every 9 seconds, and light chop. A weak front will drop into the area Sunday bringing a light WSW-W wind, becoming S-SW by afternoon, as heating gets underway. Although storms will be isolated Sunday, winds and seas will be higher in and near TSTMs.

A broad area of low pressure across the Deep South will lift northeastward across Georgia on Monday and arrive here Monday night into Tuesday. A significant increase in the number and coverage of showers and t-storms is expected. Some, but not all, models show a better defined area of low pressure developing along the South Carolina coast Wednesday, then moving slowly east and away from the area Thursday.

Nailing down a forecast wind direction is going to be tough this week since the amount of easterly or westerly component to the wind will be determined by the precise position of the low, current expected to be located almost overhead Tuesday and Wednesday. Fortunately wind speeds should remain light outside of t-storms, generally less than 15 kt.

ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. SC . None. NC . Coastal Flood Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. Coastal Flood Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for NCZ107. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . TRA NEAR TERM . MJC SHORT TERM . TRA LONG TERM . TRA AVIATION . MAS/43 MARINE . DCH


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
JMPN7 - 8658163 - Johnny Mercer Pier, Wrightsville Beach, NC 0 mi54 min SW 8 G 11 87°F 83°F1011.6 hPa
41038 - ILM2 - 5 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 6 mi76 min WSW 9.7 G 14 84°F 83°F1011.7 hPa
41110 - Masonboro Inlet, NC 6 mi47 min 83°F2 ft
WLON7 9 mi54 min 86°F 82°F1012.2 hPa
41037 - ILM3 - 27 miles SE of Wrightsville Beach, NC 27 mi76 min WSW 9.7 G 14 85°F 84°F1012.3 hPa
41108 36 mi54 min 83°F1 ft
41024 - Sunset Nearshore (SUN 2) 45 mi76 min SW 14 G 16 85°F 85°F1012 hPa
41119 45 mi67 min 84°F2 ft
41159 45 mi58 min 83°F2 ft

Wind History for Wrightsville Beach, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Wilmington International Airport, NC8 mi31 minSSW 610.00 miFair85°F64°F51%1012.2 hPa
Brunswick County Airport, NC24 mi29 minSW 510.00 miFair84°F70°F63%1012.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KILM

Wind History from ILM (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW4SW5SW4CalmW4W4W5W4W4W5W5W6W6W5W7W6W7W4CalmS13SW11SW10SW6SW6
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW5NW5NW7N6N7N94--SE3SE8SE7S4S5
2 days agoS3N3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE7N5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE4NE7NE12NE9E6E7E6E3E5E6SE4

Tide / Current Tables for Wrightsville Beach, North Carolina
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Wrightsville Beach
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:30 AM EDT     -0.46 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:20 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:25 AM EDT     3.58 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:21 PM EDT     -0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 07:53 PM EDT     4.89 feet High Tide
Sat -- 08:17 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:26 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.2-0.4-0.40.11233.53.52.81.80.7-0.2-0.6-0.50.11.12.53.74.64.94.53.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Wilmington, North Carolina
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Wilmington
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:23 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:21 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 06:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:36 AM EDT     3.94 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:24 PM EDT     -0.25 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:18 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:14 PM EDT     4.98 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.52.71.80.8-00.112.33.33.83.93.42.61.81.20.4-0.2-0.10.92.43.74.654.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wilmington, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wilmington, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.