Saturday, March28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oakwood, GA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:25AMSunset 7:54PM Saturday March 28, 2020 5:05 PM EDT (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 8:57AMMoonset 10:56PM Illumination 23% Phase: Waxing Crescent; Moon at 5 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakwood, GA
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location: 34.24, -83.95     debug


Area Discussion for - Peachtree City, GA
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FXUS62 KFFC 281915 AFDFFC

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Peachtree City GA 315 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2020


SHORT TERM /Tonight through Sunday Night/.

Main focus will be on the evolution of an elongating/weakening cold front as it is progged to push into NW GA near sunrise Sunday morning, then further advect SEWD into central GA by afternoon. With the enhanced moisture field looking to greatly decrease/thin out, have trended chance pops in the morning for the NW to only a band of slight pops for central GA by afternoon. With some marginal shear parameters juxtaposed to the instability axis in the far NW, a few strong storms cannot be ruled out early Sunday morning. The main threats remain gusty winds and occasional lightning. Expecting just isolated general thunder potential thereafter. Overall QPF looks to be light as well.

Temps Sunday look to be a bit cooler than today given aforementioned front and increased associated cloud coverage, though still above normal.

Baker

LONG TERM /Monday through Saturday/.

Main concern in the long term period is likelihood for strong/severe convection on Tuesday.

Pattern at the start of the period on Monday has an upper low over New England and a strong shortwave over the southern plains with WSWly flow aloft over the southeast. This is a favorable pattern for cold air damming and, indeed, model guidance in strong agreement of strong wedge setting up Monday night and Tuesday. As the wave moves quickly east Tuesday, strong cyclogenesis expected with decent amount of low level moisture advecting north and instability increasing as a result. MLCAPE values valid 18Z Tues still only progged to be in the 750-1250 J/kg range but would not be surprised if it creeps higher in later model runs. Vertical wind shear somewhat strong as well with 0-1km bulk shear of 210/30-40kts and 0- 6km bulk shear of 250/50-80kts. Warm/wedge front progged to remain over middle GA, but obviously will depend on strength of wedge and diabatic cooling from precip Mon night. Most likely time frame for severe storms would be 18Z Tues-03Z Wed.

Based on previous experience with patterns like this in late March, this appears to be a very favorable pattern for supercells and large hail with very good directional shear. Tornadoes may also be possible but probably requires higher levels of instability and shear than what is currently forecast before their likelihood, intensity or longevity is increased. Will need to start some increased messaging of this threat as more guidance becomes available.

After this, dry weather with NW flow expected thru Thurs. At this point, medium range guidance diverges with big differences in amplitude and proximity of west Atlantic long-wave trough and upstream wave. GFS still appears to be an outlier but no confidence that any other model has a good handle on these features. Have stayed close to NBM which has only Slight Chc PoPs Fri/Sat. Did not include TSRA for Fri/sat at this time. Daytime temps should remain at or below climatology and at or above climatology at night.

SNELSON

CLIMATE.

Records for 03-28

Max Temperature Min Temperature Station High Low High Low ------- ---------- ---------- ---------- ---------- KAHN 85 2007 42 1996 62 1922 27 2013 1921 KATL 85 1907 46 1955 62 2017 28 1913 2007 1907 KCSG 90 1929 46 1913 65 2017 31 1937 1991 1972 KMCN 89 1907 45 1955 64 1991 30 2013 1922 2001

AVIATION. 18Z Update . Initial VFR conditions with some lingering FEW/SCT 3500-4500 ft stratocu near the western sites. Otherwise expecting some MVFR to IFR cigs for most sites from 07/10z and chance for some VCSH with weakening front 13-18z for near KATL and slightly later for sites south and east. Potential for some isolated TSRA within window for northern sites so have prob30 but not confident in coverage. SW winds near 7-10 kts this afternoon with possible low end gusts then 6-8 kts overnight increasing again near 9-10 kts with low end gusts for Sunday ahead and behind front.

//ATL Confidence . 18Z Update . Medium on morning cigs. Low on Sunday morning TSRA chance. High on all else.

Baker

PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS. Athens 65 80 56 73 / 5 20 5 0 Atlanta 66 78 56 71 / 10 40 5 0 Blairsville 61 73 49 66 / 30 40 5 0 Cartersville 65 78 53 70 / 20 40 0 0 Columbus 68 84 59 80 / 10 30 10 0 Gainesville 64 77 54 70 / 10 30 0 0 Macon 65 85 58 79 / 5 20 10 0 Rome 65 78 53 71 / 40 50 0 0 Peachtree City 66 80 55 74 / 10 40 5 0 Vidalia 65 91 64 84 / 0 5 10 0

FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NONE.

SHORT TERM . Baker LONG TERM . SNELSON AVIATION . Baker


Weather Reporting Stations
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Gainesville, Gilmer Memorial Airport, GA7 mi73 minW 910.00 miFair81°F60°F49%1013.7 hPa
Gwinnett County Airport-Briscoe Field, GA18 mi70 minWSW 10 G 1710.00 miFair83°F63°F51%1014.4 hPa
Winder, Winder-Barrow Airport, GA23 mi71 minW 1010.00 miFair84°F59°F43%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KGVL

Wind History from GVL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW11SW5SW4SW4SW6SW5SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmSW6W3SW4SW4W8W10W10
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1 day agoSW63CalmSE4CalmCalmE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3W3W6W10W9W10W9SW10W8
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2 days agoW10W9W9W8W8W7NW6NW5N4NE6NE6E8E9E10E11E9E9E7E6Calm435S8
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Tide / Current Tables for
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Weather Map
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Peachtree City, GA (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Atlanta, GA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.