Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Vandenberg AFB, CA
May 2, 2024 5:31 AM PDT (12:31 UTC) Change Location
 | Sunrise 6:08 AM Sunset 7:49 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM Moonset 12:56 PM |
PZZ673 Waters From Pt. Sal To Santa Cruz Island Ca And Westward 60 Nm Including San Miguel And Santa Rosa Islands- 305 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
.gale warning in effect through late tonight - .
Today - NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft dominant period 10 seconds.
Tonight - NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt, becoming 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt late. Combined seas 10 to 13 ft dominant period 10 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Fri - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 7 to 10 ft dominant period 9 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Fri night - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 6 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds. Patchy fog in the evening.
Sat - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt, becoming W 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 8 seconds. A slight chance of rain in the afternoon.
Sat night - NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts to 30 kt. Combined seas 5 to 6 ft dominant period 7 seconds, building to 7 to 8 ft dominant period 7 seconds after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Sun - NW winds 20 to 30 kt. Combined seas 8 to 10 ft.
Mon - NW winds 15 to 25 kt. Combined seas 8 to 10 ft.
PZZ600 305 Am Pdt Thu May 2 2024
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1029 mb high was centered 900 nm W of point conception. A 1003 mb thermal low was centered just S of las vegas. Strong to gale force winds will continue into the weekend in the northern and outer waters, with a gusty winds likely across the entire waters starting Sat afternoon.
synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park - .at 09z, or 2 am pdt, a 1029 mb high was centered 900 nm W of point conception. A 1003 mb thermal low was centered just S of las vegas. Strong to gale force winds will continue into the weekend in the northern and outer waters, with a gusty winds likely across the entire waters starting Sat afternoon.
Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 021157 AFDLOX
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 457 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
02/455 AM.
A dry weather pattern will continue through Saturday as the region remains between high pressure aloft to the west and an exiting trough to the east. Warming will continue to take shape across the northern and interior portions of the area today, while a persistent marine layer will moderate the warming across the South Coast of California. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the area to the north this weekend and bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance for light precipitation Saturday into Sunday. A warming and drying trend will develop for the work week next week.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...02/455 AM.
Zonal flow remains aloft over the region early this morning as the area sits between a broad upper-level trough to the east and an upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. A fairly complex surface pattern exists across the area as ridging to the west has created a weak offshore flow pattern across the area. Offshore flow is present across the Central Coast of California this morning, but a persistent eddy circulation remains intact across the southern California bight. With the offshore flow pattern being too weak, it is unlikely for the eddy to get dislodged from the bight. As a result, a persistent marine intrusion will remain wedged in place for today across the South Coast of California.
Low clouds and fog have spread into the the Los Angeles County coastal plain and into the San Gabriel Valley. Clouds are starting to push north along the Ventura County coast and the south coast of Santa Barbara County. Clouds are expected to push into most coastal and valley areas south of Point Conception this morning, but there is a moderate chance that the eddy circulation could pull too far offshore and result into some clearing skies to start the day.
A warming trend should develop today as offshore flow should assert some influence with the compressional heating, but the warming trend could be more muted or even closer to persistence along the South Coast of California due to the low cloud field already present across the area. The forecast preserves a warming trend continuing into today while moderating the warming along the Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa Barbara Counties.
There is a moderate chance that clouds could hug the beaches and struggle to clear off the southern coastal areas this afternoon, but more confidence exists in the offshore push being able to clear off the clouds just off the coast.
A wind advisory was cancelled early this morning as northerly winds weakened with the northerly surface gradient relaxing some, but there is another chance of gusty northerly winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor tonight as the surface pressure gradient tightens again. There is a moderate chance that a wind advisory could be issued for the same areas tonight and into Friday morning as NAM-WRF boundary layer winds increase to 25 knots.
With the ridge aloft and offshore flow weakening later today, the marine layer cloud field should become a bit more entrenched tonight and into Friday morning. Ridging aloft should tighten the marine inversion some and possibly inhibit clearing on Friday at the beaches. A return of low clouds and fog should occur along the Central Coast, but there is a moderate chance that the low cloud forecast could be a little too expansive along the Central Coast for late tonight and into Friday morning.
By Friday night, cyclonic flow will start to develop and a deepening marine layer should be expected as onshore flow strengthens. Marine layer induced low clouds and fog should be fairly aggressive on Friday night and Saturday as low clouds and fog will likely push into the coastal slopes of the mountains.
Much cooler temperatures will start to spread into areas north of Point Conception on Saturday as an unseasonably cold upper-level trough digs into northern California. A cold frontal boundary will drop south into the region late Saturday and bring an increase in chances for precipitation on Saturday night.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...02/455 AM.
The frontal boundary will continue to move south and east over the area into Sunday while weakening some. The highest chance for precipitation will be for areas north of Point Conception, along the northern slopes of the mountains, and into the San Gabriel Valley between Saturday night and Sunday. EPS, GEFS, and CMC ensemble members buy into this idea emphasizing these areas being wetter. Southern Santa Barbara County, Ventura County, and western Los Angeles County could end up being in a rain shadow effect as downsloping occurs from the Transverse Ranges. PoPs break away from NBM values between Saturday night and into Sunday, and go higher than the previous forecast for the wetter areas. Likely PoPs may be needed by future shifts if the pattern continues for areas north of Point Conception, along the northern slopes of the mountains, and into the San Gabriel Valley. Almost all solutions of the EPS suggest rain for terminals north of Point Conception, KSDB, KEMT, and KPOC.
Temperatures will be quite cool for Sunday across the area. Record cold high temperatures could be tied in some areas as a cold pattern for May sets up. Temperatures go colder than NBM values for Sunday.
Gusty winds could end being the main story with this system. EPS members produce a broad period of gusty winds between Sunday and Monday morning. Gusty west to northwest will likely develop on Sunday across most areas, and a wide swath of wind advisories might be needed for Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty northwest to north are likely to linger through the Interstate 5 Corridor and into southern Santa Barbara County for Sunday night and into Monday morning.
A warming and drying trend should develop for the work week next week as forecast ensemble advertised a consistent warming trend in the temperature means.
AVIATION
01/2336Z.
At 2300Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep with an inversion top at 4300 ft with a temperature of 17 C.
Low to moderate confidence in coastal TAF sites and KBUR and KVNY, with high confidence elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs may develop one category lower than forecast for coastal sites in Ventura and L.A.
counties. There is a 30% chance of no cigs developing for KSBA, KBUR, and KVNY, and a 30-40% chance of IFR cigs overnight for KSMX.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance of cigs as low as BKN008. High confidence in any east wind component remaining less than 6 kt.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of no cigs developing tonight, and a 30% chance of IFR cigs developing overnight.
MARINE
01/1036 PM.
For the outer waters, there is currently a lull in the Gale Force winds, but expecting these winds to strengthen again tomorrow afternoon/evening. At least SCA wind are expected much of the time through Sunday, and Sunday afternoon and night there is a 40% chance of gales returning. SCA level seas are expected through Friday night followed by a 40-50% chance of SCA seas on Sunday and Monday.
For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely to continue through tonight with a brief lull tomorrow morning. SCA level winds should return during the afternoon/evening Thursday and Friday (25% chance of brief gales during these times), and a 40% of SCA winds Saturday afternoon/evening. SCA winds are then likely (70% chance) Sunday and Monday. Current SCA level seas will subside Thursday night, followed by a 20% chance of returning Sunday and Monday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds will affect the western portions of the the channel this afternoon and evening, with a 20% chance of reaching the central/eastern portions.
Thursday onward, SCA level winds are generally expected to only impact the extreme western portions of the channel, until Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon through Sunday night there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for the entire channel, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
For the southern inner waters, SCA winds are expected early tonight over far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel, and again Friday evening (20% chance). Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels until Saturday afternoon.
Saturday afternoon through Sunday there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for all the inner waters, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 457 AM PDT Thu May 2 2024
SYNOPSIS
02/455 AM.
A dry weather pattern will continue through Saturday as the region remains between high pressure aloft to the west and an exiting trough to the east. Warming will continue to take shape across the northern and interior portions of the area today, while a persistent marine layer will moderate the warming across the South Coast of California. An unseasonably cold storm system will brush the area to the north this weekend and bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and a chance for light precipitation Saturday into Sunday. A warming and drying trend will develop for the work week next week.
.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...02/455 AM.
Zonal flow remains aloft over the region early this morning as the area sits between a broad upper-level trough to the east and an upper-level ridge over the eastern Pacific Ocean. A fairly complex surface pattern exists across the area as ridging to the west has created a weak offshore flow pattern across the area. Offshore flow is present across the Central Coast of California this morning, but a persistent eddy circulation remains intact across the southern California bight. With the offshore flow pattern being too weak, it is unlikely for the eddy to get dislodged from the bight. As a result, a persistent marine intrusion will remain wedged in place for today across the South Coast of California.
Low clouds and fog have spread into the the Los Angeles County coastal plain and into the San Gabriel Valley. Clouds are starting to push north along the Ventura County coast and the south coast of Santa Barbara County. Clouds are expected to push into most coastal and valley areas south of Point Conception this morning, but there is a moderate chance that the eddy circulation could pull too far offshore and result into some clearing skies to start the day.
A warming trend should develop today as offshore flow should assert some influence with the compressional heating, but the warming trend could be more muted or even closer to persistence along the South Coast of California due to the low cloud field already present across the area. The forecast preserves a warming trend continuing into today while moderating the warming along the Los Angeles, Ventura, and southern Santa Barbara Counties.
There is a moderate chance that clouds could hug the beaches and struggle to clear off the southern coastal areas this afternoon, but more confidence exists in the offshore push being able to clear off the clouds just off the coast.
A wind advisory was cancelled early this morning as northerly winds weakened with the northerly surface gradient relaxing some, but there is another chance of gusty northerly winds through the Interstate 5 Corridor tonight as the surface pressure gradient tightens again. There is a moderate chance that a wind advisory could be issued for the same areas tonight and into Friday morning as NAM-WRF boundary layer winds increase to 25 knots.
With the ridge aloft and offshore flow weakening later today, the marine layer cloud field should become a bit more entrenched tonight and into Friday morning. Ridging aloft should tighten the marine inversion some and possibly inhibit clearing on Friday at the beaches. A return of low clouds and fog should occur along the Central Coast, but there is a moderate chance that the low cloud forecast could be a little too expansive along the Central Coast for late tonight and into Friday morning.
By Friday night, cyclonic flow will start to develop and a deepening marine layer should be expected as onshore flow strengthens. Marine layer induced low clouds and fog should be fairly aggressive on Friday night and Saturday as low clouds and fog will likely push into the coastal slopes of the mountains.
Much cooler temperatures will start to spread into areas north of Point Conception on Saturday as an unseasonably cold upper-level trough digs into northern California. A cold frontal boundary will drop south into the region late Saturday and bring an increase in chances for precipitation on Saturday night.
.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...02/455 AM.
The frontal boundary will continue to move south and east over the area into Sunday while weakening some. The highest chance for precipitation will be for areas north of Point Conception, along the northern slopes of the mountains, and into the San Gabriel Valley between Saturday night and Sunday. EPS, GEFS, and CMC ensemble members buy into this idea emphasizing these areas being wetter. Southern Santa Barbara County, Ventura County, and western Los Angeles County could end up being in a rain shadow effect as downsloping occurs from the Transverse Ranges. PoPs break away from NBM values between Saturday night and into Sunday, and go higher than the previous forecast for the wetter areas. Likely PoPs may be needed by future shifts if the pattern continues for areas north of Point Conception, along the northern slopes of the mountains, and into the San Gabriel Valley. Almost all solutions of the EPS suggest rain for terminals north of Point Conception, KSDB, KEMT, and KPOC.
Temperatures will be quite cool for Sunday across the area. Record cold high temperatures could be tied in some areas as a cold pattern for May sets up. Temperatures go colder than NBM values for Sunday.
Gusty winds could end being the main story with this system. EPS members produce a broad period of gusty winds between Sunday and Monday morning. Gusty west to northwest will likely develop on Sunday across most areas, and a wide swath of wind advisories might be needed for Sunday afternoon and evening. Gusty northwest to north are likely to linger through the Interstate 5 Corridor and into southern Santa Barbara County for Sunday night and into Monday morning.
A warming and drying trend should develop for the work week next week as forecast ensemble advertised a consistent warming trend in the temperature means.
AVIATION
01/2336Z.
At 2300Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 1900 ft deep with an inversion top at 4300 ft with a temperature of 17 C.
Low to moderate confidence in coastal TAF sites and KBUR and KVNY, with high confidence elsewhere. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and cigs may develop one category lower than forecast for coastal sites in Ventura and L.A.
counties. There is a 30% chance of no cigs developing for KSBA, KBUR, and KVNY, and a 30-40% chance of IFR cigs overnight for KSMX.
KLAX...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes could be off by +/- 2 hours, and there is a 20% chance of cigs as low as BKN008. High confidence in any east wind component remaining less than 6 kt.
KBUR...Low to moderate confidence in the 00Z TAF. Timing of flight cat changes may be off by +/- 2 hours, with a 30% chance of no cigs developing tonight, and a 30% chance of IFR cigs developing overnight.
MARINE
01/1036 PM.
For the outer waters, there is currently a lull in the Gale Force winds, but expecting these winds to strengthen again tomorrow afternoon/evening. At least SCA wind are expected much of the time through Sunday, and Sunday afternoon and night there is a 40% chance of gales returning. SCA level seas are expected through Friday night followed by a 40-50% chance of SCA seas on Sunday and Monday.
For the inner waters N of Pt. Sal, SCA level winds are likely to continue through tonight with a brief lull tomorrow morning. SCA level winds should return during the afternoon/evening Thursday and Friday (25% chance of brief gales during these times), and a 40% of SCA winds Saturday afternoon/evening. SCA winds are then likely (70% chance) Sunday and Monday. Current SCA level seas will subside Thursday night, followed by a 20% chance of returning Sunday and Monday.
For the Santa Barbara Channel, SCA level winds will affect the western portions of the the channel this afternoon and evening, with a 20% chance of reaching the central/eastern portions.
Thursday onward, SCA level winds are generally expected to only impact the extreme western portions of the channel, until Saturday afternoon. Saturday afternoon through Sunday night there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for the entire channel, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
For the southern inner waters, SCA winds are expected early tonight over far western portions of the Santa Barbara Channel, and again Friday evening (20% chance). Otherwise, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels until Saturday afternoon.
Saturday afternoon through Sunday there is a 40-50% chance of widespread NW SCA winds for all the inner waters, with the potential (20% chance) for gales on Sunday.
LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...NONE.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 645. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3 AM PDT Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
Gale Warning in effect until 3 AM PDT Friday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
| Stations | Dist | Age | Wind | Air Temp | Water Temp | Waves | inHg | DewPt |
| 46259 | 20 mi | 66 min | 54°F | 10 ft | ||||
| 46218 - Harvest, CA (071) | 25 mi | 66 min | 51°F | 10 ft | ||||
| 46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA | 30 mi | 52 min | NNW 16G | 52°F | ||||
| 46054 - SANTA BARBARA W 38 NM West of Santa Barbara, CA | 45 mi | 52 min | NNW 18G | 53°F | 54°F | 29.86 | 51°F | |
| 46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) | 49 mi | 66 min | 53°F | 7 ft |
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Airport Reports
EDIT (hide/show) Help Click EDIT to display multiple airports. Follow links for more data.Avila
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:04 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 AM PDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM PDT -2.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 PM PDT 1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 03:04 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 04:40 AM PDT 1.65 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:02 PM PDT -2.53 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:01 PM PDT 1.52 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Avila, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 0.1 |
| 1 am |
| 0.4 |
| 2 am |
| 0.8 |
| 3 am |
| 1.3 |
| 4 am |
| 1.6 |
| 5 am |
| 1.6 |
| 6 am |
| 1.4 |
| 7 am |
| 0.8 |
| 8 am |
| 0 |
| 9 am |
| -0.9 |
| 10 am |
| -1.7 |
| 11 am |
| -2.3 |
| 12 pm |
| -2.5 |
| 1 pm |
| -2.3 |
| 2 pm |
| -1.8 |
| 3 pm |
| -0.9 |
| 4 pm |
| 0 |
| 5 pm |
| 0.8 |
| 6 pm |
| 1.3 |
| 7 pm |
| 1.5 |
| 8 pm |
| 1.4 |
| 9 pm |
| 0.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 0.3 |
| 11 pm |
| -0.2 |
Port San Luis Wharf
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM PDT 2.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:04 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT 4.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM PDT -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:31 PM PDT 4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:00 AM PDT 2.60 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 03:04 AM PDT Moonrise
Thu -- 05:27 AM PDT 4.35 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:10 AM PDT Sunrise
Thu -- 12:41 PM PDT -0.20 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:53 PM PDT Moonset
Thu -- 07:31 PM PDT 4.26 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:50 PM PDT Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Port San Luis Wharf, California, Tide feet
| 12 am |
| 2.6 |
| 1 am |
| 2.7 |
| 2 am |
| 3.1 |
| 3 am |
| 3.6 |
| 4 am |
| 4 |
| 5 am |
| 4.3 |
| 6 am |
| 4.3 |
| 7 am |
| 3.9 |
| 8 am |
| 3.2 |
| 9 am |
| 2.3 |
| 10 am |
| 1.3 |
| 11 am |
| 0.4 |
| 12 pm |
| -0.1 |
| 1 pm |
| -0.2 |
| 2 pm |
| 0.2 |
| 3 pm |
| 1 |
| 4 pm |
| 2 |
| 5 pm |
| 3 |
| 6 pm |
| 3.8 |
| 7 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 8 pm |
| 4.2 |
| 9 pm |
| 3.9 |
| 10 pm |
| 3.2 |
| 11 pm |
| 2.6 |
Vandenberg AFB, CA,
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