Sunday, February28, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Minnesott Beach, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:36AMSunset 6:03PM Sunday February 28, 2021 10:17 PM EST (03:17 UTC) Moonrise 7:43PMMoonset 7:43AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 17 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 908 Pm Est Sun Feb 28 2021
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Patchy fog late this evening. Patchy fog with vsby 1 nm or less.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy after midnight. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon.
Tue night..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of rain in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Rain likely.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Fri..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves light chop.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Minnesott Beach, NC
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location: 34.98, -76.88     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 010219 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 919 PM EST Sun Feb 28 2021

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will push through the area tomorrow. High pressure will build into the region from the north Tuesday followed by low pressure moving through the middle of next week. High pressure builds back in to round out the work week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/. As of 640 PM Sunday . Latest obs show some development of patchy marine fog along coastal locations. Expecting more dense marine fog to move ashore tonight. Otherwise, no changes to the prev disc.

Prev disc . The tricky part of the forecast will be the development of sea fog invading across the coastal areas such as the Crystal Coast through the northern OBX as moist southwest flow moves over the cooler waters. Continued the mentioned of low visibilities across the aforementioned locations as conditions are conducive.

A cold front will approach the region from the west overnight. Ahead of the boundary, an increase of clouds with warm, humid, and breezy conditions, especially along the coast. Expect a mild night with overnight lows in the low 60s inland and 50s along the coast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/. As of 330 PM Sunday . The cold front is forecast to be over the foothill of NC by sunrise and gradually moving eastward during the day. All the model guidance are showing rain to start by mid- morning, but then model diverge in the intensity and coverage area as the rain moves eastward. The global models are showing rain becoming widespread by the afternoon, while the Hi-Res models are showing the rain weakening as it moves through ENC. At this time, went pessimistic with chance to categorical pops though the afternoon, then diminishing from west to east as the cold front is expected to be offshore late afternoon/early evening. Temperature will be warm ahead of the front, expect temps to reach into the low-mid 70s inland and low-mid 60s along the coast.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 250 AM Sunday . Much cooler and dry for Tuesday, followed by more rain mid week as a low pressure area tracks offshore, then dry again late week with another high building in. There are mixed signals in the models regarding a possible coastal low and it's impacts on Eastern NC during next weekend.

Monday night into Tuesday . Good agreement that transitory high pres will be passing through the Mid Atlantic, bringing much cooler, dry, and sunny weather to the region. High temps below climo, only in the 45-50 degree range with brisk northerly winds, esp near the coast.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . Better model agreement on upper pattern by midweek, as they are converging on a solution with the next shortwave ejecting out of the Four Corners region early in the week, passing through the TN Valley on Tue, and then through the SERN CONUS mid week. This will bring decent rain chances late Tue night and esp Wed. Confidence has increased enough to increase PoPs to likely. Temps near climo this period, with highs in the 50s to lower 60s and lows 35-45.

Thursday through Friday . Drying expected as another high pres area builds in on progressive quasi zonal flow. Temps appear to be near climo due to the zonal pattern, with highs in the 55-65 degree range, and lows generally 40-45.

Saturday . Looks like low pressure will be developing off the southeast coast next Sat-Sunday. The track of this system will be critical to how much wind/precipitation impact's there will be across Eastern NC with earlier forecasts indicating the potential for strong winds and wintry precipitation. The 00Z models were more suppressed with less wind/precipitation and chances for wintry precipitation. This is almost a week away so expecting a lot of variance in solutions over the next couple of days but will continue to monitor.

AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. Short Term /through Monday Afternoon/ . As of 645 PM Sunday . Prevailing VFR conditions expected through Monday morning. Persistent SSW flow continues overnight around 10 kts with gusts around 15 kts. Hi res guidance suggests the potential for some LLWS in the vicinity of the terminals tonight. Confidence remains low for criteria being met with latest guidance backing off slightly, but can still expect winds aloft inc overnight as our next cold front nears the region. Inserted a few hours of LLWS into the TAFs to address the concern. Winds will gust to around 20 kts after daybreak Monday before the cold front pushes through in the late morning and early afternoon. Expect moments of reduced visibility as a line of showers pushes through the region. Models have lifted expected ceilings in the latest runs, but MVFR conditions remain possible in the afternoon. Ceilings will lift behind the front and return terminals to a high confidence VFR by late Monday aftn.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 250 AM Sunday . Next cold front moves through Monday with widespread rain showers and sub VFR conditions. Dry high pres builds in for Mon night through Tue with VFR again. A low pres area moves just off the coast Wed with good rain chances and more sub VFR possible. High pressure builds in Thu with dry weather and VFR conditions.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 345 PM Sunday . The latest buoy observations are showing SW winds 10-15 knots and seas 3-4 ft across the coastal waters. SW winds will increase to 15-20 knots tonight, then increasing further to 15-25 knots overnight through Monday as the gradient tightens due to a cold front approaching the coastal waters. Winds will shift to the NW after the cold front push through early tomorrow evening. Seas will gradually build and become 4-6 ft overnight and peaking to 5-8 ft tomorrow afternoon. SCA is in effect to start late tonight across all the coastal waters including the Pamlico Sound.

The threat for sea fog continues as there have been pockets of dense sea fog today across the coastal waters. Conditions remain conductive as warm and humid air mass blows into the still cold waters on southwest winds. Continued the mention of areas of fog from the southern waters, north of Cape Hatteras, and the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds with vsbys at times dropping to 1/2 mile or so, as signals are strong for periods of dense fog where cold water temps are present.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 250 AM Sunday . SCA conditions will be ongoing Mon in the brisk SW flow ahead of the cold front. Winds will briefly diminish behind the front Mon afternoon to 10-15 kt as the flow becomes NW, then winds are forecast to increase again to SCA levels Mon night into Tue morning as cold advection produces strong northerly flow. Winds will then diminish Tue night into Wed morning while becoming SE, then increase yet again out of the N to SCA levels late Wed into early Thu as low pressure passes just off of the coast. Seas peak at 5-8 ft Mon into Tue then briefly subside to 2-4 ft Tue night into Wed before building back to 5-7 ft Wed night into Thu. Periods of sea fog will be possibly continuing into Mon morning as SW winds advect a warm and moist airmass over the cold near shore waters.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Dense Fog Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for AMZ135-150-152- 154-156-158-231. Small Craft Advisory until noon EST Tuesday for AMZ135-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EST Tuesday for AMZ150.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . BM/ML SHORT TERM . BM LONG TERM . JME AVIATION . JME/ML MARINE . JME/BM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 21 mi48 min SSW 11 G 17 61°F 57°F1017.9 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 31 mi18 min SSW 15 G 19 63°F 1017.7 hPa (-0.7)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC8 mi24 minSSW 15 G 212.00 miOvercast66°F66°F100%1017 hPa
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC12 mi24 minSSW 14 G 2110.00 miFair69°F64°F84%1016.3 hPa
Beaufort Smith Field, NC21 mi20 minSSW 134.00 miFog/Mist64°F63°F96%1017.3 hPa
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC22 mi22 minSSW 19 G 2710.00 miOvercast and Breezy68°F66°F93%1017.4 hPa
Bogue Field Marine Corps Auxiliary Field, NC22 mi21 minWSW 110.25 miFog63°F62°F97%1017.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNKT

Wind History from NKT (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:28 AM EST     -0.33 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:26 AM EST     2.42 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:57 PM EST     -0.31 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:48 PM EST     2.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.5-0-0.3-0.30.10.71.422.42.42.11.50.90.3-0.2-0.3-0.10.41.11.82.22.32.1

Tide / Current Tables for Newport River, North Carolina
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Newport River
Click for Map
Sun -- 03:12 AM EST     -0.50 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:36 AM EST     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:41 AM EST     Moonset
Sun -- 09:10 AM EST     3.62 feet High Tide
Sun -- 03:40 PM EST     -0.47 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sun -- 07:42 PM EST     Moonrise
Sun -- 09:32 PM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.5-0.2-0.5-0.30.41.42.43.23.63.52.9210.2-0.4-0.400.91.92.93.43.53

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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