Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
New Bern, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:32AMSunset 7:48PM Friday August 23, 2019 5:49 PM EDT (21:49 UTC) Moonrise 11:32PMMoonset 12:52PM Illumination 42% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ158 S Of Cape Lookout To N Of Surf City Nc Out 20 Nm- 317 Pm Edt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, diminishing to around 5 kt in the afternoon. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop. A chance of tstms in the evening. Showers likely.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 9 seconds. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. Showers likely.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy. Showers likely.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 6 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers.
Mon night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 5 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming e. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers light chop, diminishing to flat.
Wed..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming S around 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Adjacent sounds and rivers flat. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near New Bern, NC
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location: 35.09, -77.07     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 231945
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
345 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will approach the area later today and tonight and
slowly cross the region Saturday. The front will stall well
offshore Sunday with low pressure moving along it Monday.

Another cold front will approach the area mid to late week.

Near term through tonight
As of 245 pm Friday... Latest surface analysis shows a cold front
draped across central virginia early this afternoon in
association with an unseasonably strong upper level stretching
from quebec into the great lakes as seen in WV imagery. Some
weak lobes of mid-level vorticity are advecting across the
region and, coupled with the front, will provide some enhanced
ascent to set the stage for increasing showers and thunderstorms
later this evening.

Immediate next few hours are expected to be mainly dry with a
few afternoon showers and storms possibly sneaking into the
coastal plain. Main event is later tonight as the front sinks
south and storm coverage increases in an axis of 30-35 knot 0-6
km bulk shear across the nc va border and mlcapes approaching
2500 j kg. All the hi-res guidance indicates a squall line
developing and stalling along the va border before progressing
south after sunset as the convective system becomes gradually
cold-pool dominant. Main concern is minor urban flooding with
pwats of 2-2.25 inches, but current thinking is line will be
moving fast enough to preclude more widespread flash flooding. A
risk for gusty to severe winds with the squall line is possible
mainly for our northern tier of counties. Overall precipitation
chances drop to the south with much weaker shear and lack of
daytime heating. Have categorical pops northern tier to high
chance along the crystal coast.

Highs remainder of today top out in the low 90s with cloud cover
keeping lows in the mid 70s along the coast, to low 70s inland
with the aid of cooling rainfall.

Short term Saturday
As of 300 pm Friday... Front continues to push south towards the
coast on Saturday with plenty of cloud cover lingering in its
wake. Behind the front, high pressure to the north will shift
east and set up a weak wedge cold-air dam to our west, aiding in
cooler and more stable air. A thin axis of instability is
possible along the coast as hinted by hi-res guidance, but given
the expected considerable cloud cover I have my doubts if there
will be enough instability to sustain as aggressive of coverage
as advertised. If more sustained activity is realized storm
motions will be slow in an axis of 2-2.25 inch pwats suggesting
a localized flooding threat, especially considering the recent
substantial rainfall these areas have received. Due to
uncertainty in storm evolution, nudged pops down from
categorical to likely. With the wedge and plenty of cloud cover
lows tomorrow will be considerably cooler with low to mid 80s
along the coast, upper 70s in the northern coastal plain.

Long term Saturday night through Friday
As of 345 pm fri... Periods of unsettled weather continues
Sunday and possibly into Monday. Another cold front will
approach the area from the west by midweek.

Saturday night... Cold front will push offshore by Sat night. As
the front pushes south, a weak shallow high pressure wedge
builds in to the carolinas. Fairly widespread showers will
continue through the evening, as decent overrunning regime sets
up with h85 mb flow still srly. Pw values are above 2.00" and
deep warm cloud layer with the best convergence near the
low mid level frontal across SRN half of the fa.

Sunday through Monday... Continued following the more consistent
ecmwf, as has support from the UKMET cmc with a more developed,
albeit further offshore, tropical system. The GFS appears to
remain an outlier with a near-coast and much weaker tropical or
subtropical system. With expected further offshore track,
impacts would be relegated to the waters in the form of high
surf and strong rip currents. Gusty winds will be felt along the
coast due to high pres ridging into the carolinas and low pres
gathering to the south. More unsettled weather possible for
Sunday, though coverage and intensity does not appear too
impressive, so rain amounts do not look too high, even along
coastal areas. Will retain likely pops for coastal zones with
chc pops interior as ocnl showers will be a threat at any time
during the day. The low will pass well east of the nc coast on
Monday, keeping only chc showers in the fcst, and breezy
conditions on the coast due to gradient between high pres
ridging in from the west and the low well offshore.

Tuesday through Thursday... High pressure should build back in tue
with more drier conditions, then an approaching cold front by
midweek resulting in sct showers and thunderstorms. Expect
highs to climb back towards climo, in the mid upr 80s. Lows
continue in the 60s interior to low 70s coast.

Aviation 18z Friday through Wednesday
Short term through Saturday 18z ...

as of 140 pm Friday... High res models show scattered convection
starting after 21z with more organized storms moving in
overnight with the front, especially in the northern sites.

Models are becoming more confident with ceilings dropping behind
the front to MVFR after midnight and then to ifr after 09z for
all sites. MVFR conditions should return after 15z, but more
widespread shra is expected towards the end of the TAF period.

Long term Saturday through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm fri... The frontal boundary will remain close to
the nc coast and continue bring unsettled weather Sat night and
into sun, with ocnl subVFR expected. Some drier air moves in by
the beginning of the week leading to improved flying conditions.

Marine
Short term tonight and Saturday ...

as of 300 pm Friday... Seas this hour 2 to 3 feet except for
more persistent 4 foot seas in the outer waters with SW winds at
around 10 to 20 knots. A cold front will approach the northern
waters tonight with SW winds at around 15-20 knots with a few
gusts to 25 knots, although nothing widespread enough to warrant
sca. Winds gradually shift to the N and then NE through Saturday
as the front slowly pushes offshore. A weak surge of N nne winds
mainly for the northern waters and sounds at around 15 knots is
expected Saturday afternoon and evening.

Long term Saturday night through Tuesday ...

as of 345 pm fri... A cold front will be south of the waters by
sat night. Winds increase out of the NE on Sunday and should
reach SCA conditions with sustained 20-25 kt NE winds due to
high pres from the west and developing low pres well offshore.

The gusty NE winds continue on Monday as potential tropical or
subtropical storm moves NE well off of the nc coast. Seas and
swell will build to greater than 6 ft by Sunday and remain that
way through Monday as the system tracks ne. Wwiv much too low
with the waves so relied more on the ecm waves and nwps. Winds
and seas start to subside later Monday through Tuesday as the
system moves well away from the waters.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... None.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Ms
short term... Ms
long term... Tl
aviation... Tl ml
marine... Tl ms


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 33 mi49 min SSW 15 G 19 85°F 85°F1016.1 hPa (-1.4)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 43 mi49 min SSW 14 G 18 85°F 1015.3 hPa (-1.3)76°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
New Bern, Craven County Regional Airport, NC1 mi1.9 hrsS 10 G 1810.00 miThunderstorm in Vicinity88°F77°F70%1014.6 hPa
Cherry Point Marine Corps Air Station, NC19 mi1.9 hrsSSW 1110.00 miA Few Clouds90°F75°F62%1014.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEWN

Wind History from EWN (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS6SW4W8SW5------SW4--SW6----SW4SW4SW5--W9SW9SW9
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1 day agoS6S9S8S8SW8--SW7
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2 days ago--SW9S5SW5------------S4--S4S3------SW11SW7SW4W7SW10--SW7

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
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Fri -- 02:21 AM EDT     1.96 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:32 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     2.31 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:46 PM EDT     0.63 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.81.91.91.71.410.70.50.50.711.51.92.22.32.21.91.61.20.90.70.60.8

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:15 AM EDT     1.21 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:33 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:39 AM EDT     0.28 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:50 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:48 PM EDT     1.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:44 PM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.91.11.21.210.80.60.40.30.30.40.60.91.21.41.41.31.210.70.50.40.4

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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wmap_A
GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (17,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.