Trent Woods, NC Marine Weather and Tide Forecast
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Marine Weather and Tide Forecast for Trent Woods, NC

May 6, 2024 2:43 PM EDT (18:43 UTC) Change Location
Sunrise 6:09 AM   Sunset 7:59 PM
Moonrise 4:05 AM   Moonset 5:36 PM 
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NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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Marine Forecasts
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AMZ137 NEuse And Bay Rivers- 1131 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024

Rest of today - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Scattered showers. Isolated tstms late this morning, then scattered tstms late.

Tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Scattered showers and tstms.

Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the morning, then a chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a slight chance of showers after midnight.

Wed - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers. A slight chance of tstms in the afternoon.

Wed night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.

Thu - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to choppy in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms.

Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves choppy, diminishing to a moderate chop after midnight. Showers and tstms likely.

Fri - W winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers in the afternoon.

Fri night - NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 1131 Am Edt Mon May 6 2024

Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the eastern seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions. Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.



7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Trent Woods, NC
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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 061830 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 230 PM EDT Mon May 6 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 PM Monday...

Visible satellite imagery this afternoon shows the seabreeze making steady progress inland, and is being quickened by the background southerly low-level flow, as well as convective outflow. As of this writing, it is just now approaching areas from Kinston to Greenville. Showers and weak thunderstorms continue to develop along the advancing seabreeze, but weaker convergence and weak deep layer shear appear to be preventing deeper, more sustained convection. However, slow storm motions and PWATs around 1.50" are supporting heavy rainfall rates.
Because of the limited residence time over any one area, the threat of flooding with the seabreeze convection looks low over the next few hours.

Back to the SW, there appears to be a weak upper level shortwave progressing slowly ENE through central SC/NC.
Convection associated with this wave has recently blossomed east of the greater Charlotte metro. This convection is expected to progress NE through the afternoon and early evening, and will eventually interact with the inland-advancing seabreeze. This will lead to an area of enhanced convergence, and is where I expect the greatest risk of convection to be focused through early this evening. In this area, MLCAPE of 500-1000j/kg is forecast, with deep layer shear of 20-25kt. This overlap of shear and instability is not overly supportive of severe weather. However, the subtle bump in shear associated with the above- mentioned shortwave may support a low-end risk of gusty/damaging winds focused from Duplin County to Martin County.

As the shortwave pushes through, convection may attempt to work back towards the coast. However, the airmass to the east may be more worked over, and it's unclear if convection will survive east of the coastal plain. There will be a modest increase in forcing with the shortwave, which could help support a continued risk beyond when we might normally expect convection to decrease. With time, the risk of convection is expected to shift offshore through the night. Like last night, an area of low stratus may develop in the wake of the convective activity, but the risk of fog appears low (10-30% chance).

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
As of 145 PM Monday...

Tuesday has the look of a conditional severe weather day across Eastern NC.

Convection may be ongoing right along, or just off, the coast in the morning associated with a weak mid/upper level wave moving through. The wave doesn't look particularly strong, but even so, I expect there to be at least a brief period of subsidence in its wake. Additionally, mid/upper level ridging will be approaching from the west, adding to the potential for subsidence. With that in mind, and assuming full clearing during the afternoon, strong heating of a moist boundary layer will support MLCAPE climbing as high as 1000-1500 j/kg. Meanwhile, mid/upper level northwesterly flow aloft atop a southerly low- level flow will lead to an increase in deep layer shear (on the order of 25-35kt). At face value, the environment on Tuesday is expected to be more supportive of severe weather than today's environment. However, modest subsidence plus questionable low- level forcing calls into question whether or not convection can initiate in the afternoon. It appears that the seabreeze will be the primary focus for convective initiation. Based on all of the above, I expect a lower coverage of thunderstorms compared to today, but if/where thunderstorms develop, there will be an increased risk of severe weather compared to today. Also, it may tend to be one of those days where convection develops later than the typical mid-afternoon CI time. Regarding potential hazards, the environment will support damaging winds and large hail with any sustained updraft. Mid-level lapse rates aren't forecast to be particularly steep, but northwesterly flow aloft will increase the risk of rotating updrafts, subsequently increasing the potential for hail development. In this pattern, I expect LCLs to be a bit higher (closer to 1000m), but the NW flow will provide some added turning down low, and a tornado cannot be ruled out.

With the low-level flow taking on more of a westerly component, low- level thicknesses will get a boost, and I expect temps to respond by peaking higher than today (barring more cloudcover than forecast).

Any convection that develops should weaken by late evening as the boundary layer stabilizes, and as low-level forcing weakens.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
As 345 AM Mon...Unsettled weather will continue through midweek as a weak trough lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. Wednesday may be the driest day of the week with only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms expected.
However this lack of precipitation will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. An approaching strong frontal system will then impact the area Thursday into Friday once again bringing unsettled weather back to the area. More benign weather possible over the weekend.

Wednesday... A more zonal upper level pattern briefly emerges across the Mid-Atlantic as a weak impulse treks across the zonal flow. At the surface SW'rly flow and increasing low level thicknesses will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast. There is a chance for some isolated shower and thunderstorm activity to occur especially along any sea/sound breeze Wed afternoon as strong instability will once again be in place though with weaker shear and forcing compared to Tuesday current thinking is that storms won't be very organized in nature. This could change and bears monitoring in the coming days but given latest thinking Wed still looks to be the driest day out of the week so far.

Thursday through Sunday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again. Latest trends have sped up an incoming cold front with the frontal passage now forecast to occur Thurs night into Fri morning. As a result greatest thunderstorm and severe threat is now likely on Thurs afternoon and evening with a diminishing threat on Friday. With this change in mind, did increase PoP's to likely on Thurs afternoon and lowered PoP's on Friday to SChc to Chc.

Otherwise as noted above, strong instability (SBCAPE values >1500 J/kg), ample 0-6 km shear (35-45 kts), and steep mid level lapse rates (6.5-7.5 C/Km) will likely result in a more widespread strong to severe thunderstorm threat Thurs afternoon and evening.

Though a robust shortwave trough will then swing southward into the area on Friday, with the quicker cold frontal passage precip on Friday is now forecast to primarily remain rain with only an isolated thunder threat as instability will have been shunted well offshore.

The front will push through the area by Friday morning with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday and Sunday. A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.

AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Tuesday Morning/...
As of 100 PM Monday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Increased TSRA risk through tonight

- Occasional sub-VFR VIS/CIGs through tonight

FORECAST DETAILS

It appears that the developing seabreeze is on the move this afternoon, and currently stretches from OAJ to EWN to FFA. SCT SHRA and a few TSRA have been ongoing since this morning, and this risk will steadily increase through the afternoon as the seabreeze works inland. Additionally, a weak upper level wave will move out of central NC and through Eastern NC later today and tonight, offering increased lift for TSRA development. It's expected that this will translate to an increased risk of TSRA from ISO to PGV by mid to late afternoon. SHRA and TSRA may then attempt to move back towards this coast this evening and tonight as the above-mentioned wave moves through, but confidence in TSRA lowers after 00z this evening. For now, then, I'll continue to focus the SHRA and TSRA risk between now and 00z.

Like this morning, another round of low stratus is possible (30-50% chance) in the wake of the TSRA activity. However, the weather pattern tonight isn't quite the same as last night, and confidence is too low to include a sub-VFR CIG for tonight. SHRA and TSRA may be ongoing early Tuesday morning, followed by a brief lull mid to late-morning.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Mon...VFR conditions are expected for the most part through mid-week outside of any shower or thunderstorm each aftn/evening that impacts the area with the highest threat for thunderstorm activity occuring on Tue. Another round of sub VFR conditions will be possible Thu afternoon and evening as a cold front moves across the region bringing more widespread rain and thunderstorm activity with VFR conditions likely returning at some point on Fri.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Tonight/...
As of 730 AM Mon...Outside of convection decent boating conditions are expected through tonight. Winds will be S/SSW at 10-15 kts through this afternoon, and then increase in response to the building thermal gradient to become SW 15-20 kts tonight through early tomorrow morning. Seas will be 2-4 ft today, and increase to 3-5 ft early tomorrow morning.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 345 AM Mon... An active weather pattern will lead to deteriorating boating conditions through midweek. We start the period off with 15-20 kt SW'rly winds and 3-5 ft seas across our waters. Given the strong thermal gradient we may briefly flirt with SCA conditions across our coastal waters Tue afternoon and evening as ocnl gusts up to 25 kts will not be out of the question. However confidence is not high enough to issue SCA's just yet and will let the day shift take another look to see how things have trended. Otherwise 15-20 kt SW'rly winds will continue across all our waters with ocnl gusts to 25 kts along the Gulf Stream waters on Wed. As a cold front approaches on Thursday SW'rly winds increase further closer to 15-25 kts with gusts up to 25-30 kts at times promoting SCA conditions across our waters on Thurs with winds potentially easing and becoming more westerly by the end of the week. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.




Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesinHgDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 34 mi133 min SSW 9.9G14 74°F 75°F30.05
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 44 mi103 min S 14G16 71°F 30.08


Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisSkyWeatherTempDewPtRHinHg
KEWN COASTAL CAROLINA REGIONAL,NC 3 sm49 minSSW 0910 smPartly Cloudy79°F72°F79%30.03
KNKT CHERRY POINT MCAS /CUNNINGHAM FIELD/,NC 18 sm47 minSSW 1010 smMostly Cloudy77°F70°F78%30.04
Link to 5 minute data for KEWN


Wind History from EWN
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Tide / Current for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
   
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Core Creek Bridge
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Mon -- 02:15 AM EDT     -0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:10 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:01 AM EDT     2.21 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:18 PM EDT     -0.19 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:25 PM EDT     2.71 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.5
1
am
0
2
am
-0.2
3
am
-0.1
4
am
0.3
5
am
0.9
6
am
1.6
7
am
2
8
am
2.2
9
am
2.1
10
am
1.7
11
am
1.1
12
pm
0.5
1
pm
0.1
2
pm
-0.2
3
pm
-0.1
4
pm
0.3
5
pm
1
6
pm
1.7
7
pm
2.3
8
pm
2.7
9
pm
2.7
10
pm
2.3
11
pm
1.8


Tide / Current for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
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Mon -- 03:13 AM EDT     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:04 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:55 AM EDT     1.36 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:16 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:33 PM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:19 PM EDT     1.67 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

Spooner Creek, North Carolina, Tide feet
12
am
0.7
1
am
0.3
2
am
0
3
am
-0.1
4
am
-0.1
5
am
0.2
6
am
0.6
7
am
1
8
am
1.3
9
am
1.4
10
am
1.3
11
am
1
12
pm
0.7
1
pm
0.3
2
pm
0
3
pm
-0.1
4
pm
-0.1
5
pm
0.2
6
pm
0.6
7
pm
1.1
8
pm
1.5
9
pm
1.7
10
pm
1.6
11
pm
1.4


Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of east us   
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Morehead City, NC,





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