Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:35 AM   Moonset 4:22 PM

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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 936 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Rest of today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers late this morning and early afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Wed night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 936 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Front that has lingered over the area since Friday retreats nward while becoming more diffuse. Benign winds/seas into the early week but shower and tstorm activity is expected.

FXUS62 KMHX 051755 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 155 PM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/
As of 950 AM Sun...Still an unsettled morning across the Inner Banks as band of showers migrates along a now-stalled surface trough draped from Raleigh Bay northward to the Albemarle- Pamlico Peninsula. Weak wave of low pressure migrating along a stalled frontal boundary aided by a weak shortwave aloft will continue to push eastward into the afternoon. Surface destabilization is also evident on satellite as cu field has quickly taken shape in what few clear spots remained around sunrise.

Prior analysis still holds with 3 main focuses of precip activity today -

1) the ongoing precip along the surface trough

2) this afternoon shower and tstorm activity further increasing from the W this afternoon with the support of a passing shortwave

3) Despite the cloudiness, a weak seabreeze originating over the Crystal Coast this afternoon which could spark some showers/tstorms along it as it moves inland

Iso- sct showers remain possible elsewhere. Chc PoPs cover the area through the morning with a period of LKLY in the afternoon for the far Wern edge of the FA. CAPE will be sufficient but shear will be lacking once again, so tstorms remain possible but the severe threat is low. Mostly cloudy to OVC skies expected through the day due to convection and debris clouds which will limit MaxTs Sunday; approaching 80 away from the coast, low 70s beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
As of 0345 Sunday...SFC high off the NECONUS gets shunted S by a front working through New England tonight which will slowly veer winds through the period to become SSWerly in the early morning hours MON. Precip potential wanes overnight with mid and upper level flow becoming more zonal as high shifts Sward.
However, moisture content remains relatively high, near the 90th percentile of climatology which means that ISO to widely SCT showers cannot be completely ruled out. Mostly Serly flow and mostly cloudy skies keeps MinTs warm and muggy, generally mid 60s, upper 60s beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.

Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip chances to around 50% at this time range.

A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass will persist, and the initial impression of this weather pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with potential for a significant event if all ingredients come together. That being said, much can change at this time scale but we will continue to monitor this potential.

The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
SHORT TERM /through 18z Mon/...
As of 155 PM Sun...VFR conditions prevail across all terminals this afternoon with iso to sct showers and storms to both the west and east of terminals ahead of a weak wave of low pressure and decaying surface trough, respectively. Convective coverage is forecast to gradually increase through the rest of the afternoon, with the highest coverage concentrated across the inner coastal plain as low pressure continues to lift northeast.
Locally heavy rain could bring brief periods of sub-MVFR conditions, but otherwise predominantly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. Convective coverage will wane through 00-03z.

Trend for IFR conditions has continued to step back through today, although signal for at least MVFR cigs across the coastal plain remains strong especially after 06z tonight. Conditions will gradually improve through Mon morning from east to west, although threat of showers and thunderstorms will return by 18z Mon.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0400 Sunday...Winds slowly veer through the short term, SEerly 10-15kt through the morning, Serly overnight still 10-15kt but outer waters near GStream 15-20kt. Seas will be 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period but the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the coastal waters.

Winds Monday will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front, and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas will develop across portions of the coastal waters through Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sun -- 01:18 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:28 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
Click for Map
Sun -- 02:40 AM EDT     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 08:06 AM EDT     1.88 feet High Tide
Sun -- 02:50 PM EDT     -0.09 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:20 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 08:33 PM EDT     2.22 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,