Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Ford City, CA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:38PM Friday August 23, 2019 9:15 PM PDT (04:15 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:49PM Illumination 39% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 204 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Tonight..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds. S swell 2 ft.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 9 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds. SE swell 2 ft.
Sun night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft at 12 seconds.
Mon..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Mon night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 204 Pm Pdt Fri Aug 23 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 21z, or 2 pm pdt, a 1022 mb surface high was centered 900 nm W of Monterey. A 1006 mb low was near las vegas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ford City, CA
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location: 35.16, -119.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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Fxus66 klox 240234
afdlox
area forecast discussion
national weather service los angeles oxnard ca
734 pm pdt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis 23 728 pm.

Near normal temperatures Saturday will warm into above normal
values Sunday as high pressure builds over the region. These warm
temperatures will persist into next week. Expect low clouds and
areas of fog from the night to morning hours in many coastal areas
and some valleys through the period.

Short term (fri-mon) 23 703 pm.

***update***
skies were fairly slow to clear today but by mid afternoon there
was complete clearing and now it looks like the low clouds will be
slow to return due to a lack of or at least a slow to form eddy.

There were some easterly offshore trends today and that allowed
the coasts to warm a degree or two but away from the coast the
deeper marine layer and lowering hgts combined to knock 3 to 7
degrees off of the readings from yesterday with the major
exception of the interior slo vlys which saw 15 to 20 degrees of
cooling.

Forecast is in good shape but will issue an update to remove
clouds from santa clarita vly and trim back from the vlys near the
vta la county line,
***from previous discussion***
a more traditional clearing pattern is expected Saturday as the
southerly flow today shifts back to a westerly flow. Biggest warm
up will be in the valleys but most coastal areas will warm at
least a couple degrees.

The high peaks in strength Sunday and Monday, but with onshore
trends expected Monday coastal areas may cool a degree or two
while inland areas continue to warm. Warmer valley highs should
top out around 100 while antelope valley temps approach 105 in the
warmest locations. Marine layer will be shallow but solid along
the coast during the night and morning hours. Most areas should
clear by afternoon but some clouds may linger at the beaches into
the afternoon, especially Monday with the onshore trends.

As for ivo, the forecast track shifted a little farther east but
it's not strengthening as much as earlier expected and models
still just showing minimal higher level moisture skirting the
western portion of the forecast area. So will keep a few clouds in
the forecast for that but otherwise the main impacts of ivo will
likely be increasing surf on south facing beaches. See beaches
discussion below for more details.

Long term (tue-fri) 23 220 pm.

High pressure will be the primary driver of our weather next week,
keeping temps at or slightly above seasonal norms. Models do show
the high weakening slightly as the remnants of ivo get pulled into
westerlies and ride up and over the ridge. This will knock
heights thicknesses down slightly tue-wed before the ridge
rebuilds later in the week and temps nudge upward again. Marine
layer clouds will remain along the coast during the night and
morning hours, otherwise skies will generally be clear.

Aviation 24 0050z.

At 2345z at klax, the marine layer was 1400 ft deep. The top of
the inversion was 3600 feet with a temperature of 24 c.

High confidence in kpmd and kwjf tafs.

Low confidence in remainder of tafs. Low cloud arrival time could
be off by as much as 3 hours and there is a 20 percent chc of no
low clouds at any given site. Sites with MVFR CIGS fcst have a 30
percent chc of ifr cigs. Clearing time could be off by + - 2
hours.

Klax... Low confidence in taf. Low cloud arrival time could be
anytime between 07z and 11z. There is a 20 percent chc of no low
clouds at all.VFR transition could occur any time between 15z and
19z. Good confidence that there will be no east wind component
greater than 3 kt.

Kbur... Low confidence in taf. Low cloud arrival time could be
anytime between 09z and 13z. There is a 30 percent chc of no low
clouds at all.VFR transition could occur any time between 15z and
17z.

Marine 23 212 pm.

For all the coastal waters, high confidence in current forecast.

Today through Wednesday, winds and seas are expected to remain
below small craft advisory (sca) levels.

An abnormally large southeast to south swell from tropical storm
ivo will impact the waters Sunday through Tuesday. There is a
potential for the swell to peak between 5 and 7 feet. A swell from
this direction would cause strong surges around and inside the
vulnerable harbors, especially avalon and san pedro long beach.

Large breaking waves near the coast are also likely, which has a
history of capsizing small drifting boats.

Beaches 23 212 pm.

Tropical storm ivo, currently about 500 miles southwest of cabo
san lucas, will generate a southeasterly swell reaching california
Sunday and persisting through Tuesday. The peak of the swell
should occur Sunday afternoon through Monday morning with a period
around 14 seconds. While the peak swell heights will most likely
fall between 4 and 6 feet, there is a chance for a range of 5 and
7 feet.

Dangerous rip currents and large breaking waves on rock jetties
are certain. Surf heights should reach at least 4 to 6 feet over
south facing beaches, with a chance of peak surf reaching 6 to 8
feet especially for los angeles county, which would require a high
surf advisory.

There is a risk for impactful coastal flooding as well. The
highest tides will be late in the afternoon, and should reach
5.7 to 6.7 feet. If the peak swell ends up 3 to 5 feet, flooding
impacts would be minor and mainly in the form of beach erosion. If
the swell height ends up closer to 8 feet, more impactful
flooding would be expected for the vulnerable areas like pebbly
beach in avalon and the long beach peninsula if unprotected.

Lox watches warnings advisories
Ca... Beach hazards statement in effect from late Saturday night
through Tuesday morning for zones 40-41-87. (see laxcfwlox).

Pz... None.

Hazard potential outlook (mon-fri)
Elevated surf and strong rip currents are possible at area beaches
early next week.

Public... Mw rorke
aviation... Rorke
marine... Rat
beaches... Rat
synopsis... Phillips
weather.Gov losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 54 mi40 min WSW 2.9 G 6 67°F 1010.4 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 67 mi26 min W 9.7 G 12 66°F 66°F4 ft1010.7 hPa65°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bakersfield, Meadows Field Airport, CA27 mi2.4 hrsN 910.00 miFair97°F61°F30%1004.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFL

Wind History from BFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr----NE5--E4----SE3CalmCalm--E3CalmSE5S7CalmS46NW8--NW8NW8NW9N9
1 day ago--N4----E3Calm--SE3----CalmSE4SE4CalmSW4W83NW8W7--4NW8N6--
2 days ago----------NW3--NW8Calm------Calm433W7--W10NW8NW10NW8NW9NW6

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:36 AM PDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:14 AM PDT     2.75 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:13 PM PDT     4.92 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.41.51.82.22.62.933.132.82.82.833.43.84.34.74.94.84.43.832.21.4

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:28 AM PDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:26 AM PDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 06:27 AM PDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:12 AM PDT     2.69 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 PM PDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:05 PM PDT     5.07 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:35 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.31.41.82.22.62.93.13.12.92.82.72.733.43.94.54.95.14.94.53.82.921.3

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
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Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.