Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Ford City, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:52AMSunset 4:45PM Sunday December 8, 2019 11:04 PM PST (07:04 UTC) Moonrise 3:49PMMoonset 4:17AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ650 East Santa Barbara Channel From Pt. Conception To Pt. Mugu Ca Including Santa Cruz Island- 820 Pm Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 3 am pst Monday...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt. Strongest western portion. Combined seas 5 to 7 ft dominant period 11 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 3 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Mon night..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 10 seconds.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tue night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 2 to 3 ft at 15 seconds.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 16 seconds.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts to 25 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds.
Thu..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 4 to 6 ft.
Fri..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. W swell 5 to 7 ft.
PZZ600 820 Pm Pst Sun Dec 8 2019
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 03z or 7 pm pst, a 1024 mb surface high was located 500 nm sw of point conception and extending to a 1023 mb ridge in the idaho panhandle. Winds will diminish and seas will subside through Monday morning.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Ford City, CA
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location: 35.16, -119.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 090606 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion . UPDATED National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 1006 PM PST Sun Dec 8 2019

SYNOPSIS. 08/823 PM.

A few brief showers will linger across the region tonight with patchy fog possible in wind protected locations. Conditions will be dry for the remainder of the week with much warmer temperatures by Thursday.

SHORT TERM (SUN-WED). 08/742 PM.

***UPDATE***

The upper low is now centered over NE Kern county. The PVA and instability associated with this upper low has triggered showers across Canyon Country, the Santa Clarita Vly, and the north slopes of the mtns on the Kern county border (helped along by northerly upslope flow. NVA will sweep into the area in the next few hours and most of the shower activity will end leaving only the north slopes showers to linger overnight. Snow levels will drop to about 5500 feet and the major mtn roadways should not see anything but rain.

light to moderate offshore flow is developing from the north. There will be gusty sub advisory level wind gusts through the i-5 corridor and into the Santa Clarita Vly and western San Fernando Vly. There will also be some light sundowner winds across the SBA south coast.

There will be a hodge-pod of low clouds tonight. They will not advect in like they usually do rather they will form in place in areas where there are light winds and enough residual moisture. This process makes the cloud pattern much more random and changeable.

Max temps today were pretty much as forecast in the lower to mid 60s across and forecast is on track for a couple of degrees of warming tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts were generally a quarter to a half inch although the LA coast and most of its valleys came up short with most areas seeing only a tenth of an inch. As is so often the case Rocky Butte in extreme NW SLO county was the big rainfall winner with 3.39 inches of rain.

Will issue a quick update to lower pops this evening and increase Monday morning's clouds.

***From Previous Discussion***

Still looks dry and warmer Monday and through mid week as a weak ridge of high pressure takes over through Tuesday. That ridge does break down allowing a weak trough to pass by mostly north of the area Tue night into Wed but all we should see locally is some high clouds and slightly cooler temps. There are a couple ensemble solutions that bring some light rain to SLO County Wed but will favor the dry majority for now.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN). 08/149 PM.

High pressure will rebuild even stronger behind the mid week trough providing dry and warmer conditions Thu-Fri. Both the GFS and ECMWF showing some light offshore flow during that time as well. Probably not strong enough for advisory level northeast winds but certainly enough to help boost temps for many coast/valley areas well into the 70s, especially LA/Ventura Counties.

The ridge weakens Sat/Sun for some cooling. The EC is somewhat more aggressive with the next trough and some ensembles again suggest some light rain for the Central Coast and possibly some north slope showers Sunday morning near the Grapevine but otherwise dry. Some gusty north winds possible next Sunday as the GFS shows the LAX-BFL gradient increasing to 7mb which is pretty healthy. Most likely areas for wind would be southern SB County, the I5 Corridor and possibly even some of the LA/Ventura valleys.

AVIATION. 09/0601Z.

At 0530Z at KLAX, there was a deep moist layer with no inversion.

Low confidence in most TAFs through 20Z then good confidence. Low clouds will likely form in place at most sites tonight. LIFR, IFR and low MVFR cigs are equally likely and its also likely that cigs will change level fairly frequently. There is a 20 percent chc that a TAF with low clouds forecast will not develop. Better confidence in KSBA TAF.

KLAX . Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. There is a 20 percent chc low clouds will not develop. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs/vis and a 10 percent chc of LIFR cig/vis. Onset of low clouds could be any time from 09Z on. Once cigs form they will likely vary between flight cats. Good confidence in forecast after 20Z. Any aft wind component will remain less than 4 kt

KBUR . Low confidence in TAF through 20Z. There is a 10 percent chc low clouds will not develop. There is a 30 percent chc of IFR cigs/vis and a 10 percent chc of LIFR cig/vis. Onset of low clouds could be any time from 09Z on. Once cigs form they will likely vary between flight cats. Good confidence in forecast after 20Z.

MARINE. 08/819 PM.

Moderate confidence in the current forecast. Winds will diminish and seas will gradually subside through early Monday. There is a chance that advisory level winds could diminish a little more quickly late tonight.

For the Outer Waters, there is a 40-60 percent chance of Small Craft Advisory (SCA) level winds again on Monday afternoon and evening, highest in the waters closest to Point Conception and northwest of the Channel Islands. SCA level winds and hazardous seas will likely develop between Thursday night and Saturday.

For the remaining waters, winds and seas will likely remain below SCA levels Monday through Wednesday, but there is a chance of SCA level winds and hazardous seas between Thursday night and Saturday, especially during the afternoon and evening hours.

BEACHES. 08/1235 PM.

A relatively large, long-period, west to northwest swell will continue to bring high surf conditions to the Central Coast as well as the Ventura and Los Angeles County coast through this afternoon.

For the Central Coast, surf heights will peak between 9 and 12 feet this morning, before lowering to between 7 and 10 feet. For exposed west-facing beaches of Ventura and Los Angeles counties, surf heights will be 4 to 7 feet near the Ventura harbor as well as between Manhattan Beach to the Palos Verdes Peninsula. High surf advisories will continue for these areas through this afternoon. For the west-facing beaches of southern Santa Barbara county, there will be elevated surf conditions across exposed west facing beaches through this afternoon with surf heights of 3-5 feet.

For all coastal areas . there will be an increased risk for ocean drowning. Rip currents can pull swimmers and surfers out to sea. Large breaking waves can cause injury . wash people off beaches and rocks . and capsize small boats near shore.

Late this week there will be the potential for a larger surf episode along our west-facing beaches originating from a northern Pacific storm system. Tides will be building toward 7.0 feet by Friday which would also bring a risk of coastal flooding. Stay informed about this event if you have plans near the ocean next week.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . NONE. PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 3 AM PST Monday for zones 650-655-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

Strong north winds possible Sunday in southern Santa Barbara County, and parts of LA/Ventura Counties.



PUBLIC . MW/Rorke AVIATION . Rorke MARINE . Hall BEACHES . Sweet SYNOPSIS . Kj

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
NTBC1 - Santa Barbara, CA - 9411340 54 mi89 min NW 8 G 12 57°F 1016 hPa
46053 - E. SANTA BARBARA - 12NM Southwest of Santa Barbara, CA 67 mi25 min NW 16 G 19 59°F 60°F1016.8 hPa55°F

Wind History for Santa Barbara, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Bakersfield, Meadows Field Airport, CA27 mi71 minWSW 310.00 miFair51°F48°F89%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KBFL

Wind History from BFL (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE5CalmSE5SE4CalmCalmCalmNW10N5CalmN3NW5W6S5S6W9
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1 day agoE5SE3SE6SW3W4NW5SE8SE6CalmE5CalmCalmCalmCalmNE5W3N8N13N11N8NE6SW4SE3Calm
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Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California (2)
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Mon -- 01:00 AM PST     1.59 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:23 AM PST     5.63 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:20 PM PST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:23 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:31 PM PST     3.75 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.61.82.43.34.35.15.65.54.93.92.71.40.50.10.20.71.62.53.33.73.73.32.7

Tide / Current Tables for Santa Barbara, California
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Santa Barbara
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:50 AM PST     1.68 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:15 AM PST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:53 AM PST     Sunrise
Mon -- 07:14 AM PST     5.71 feet High Tide
Mon -- 02:17 PM PST     0.06 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:23 PM PST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:48 PM PST     Sunset
Mon -- 08:29 PM PST     3.69 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.81.722.63.64.55.35.75.54.93.82.61.40.50.10.20.81.62.53.23.63.63.32.7

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (2,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Los Angeles, CA
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