Friday, August14, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:20AMSunset 7:52PM Friday August 14, 2020 9:17 AM PDT (16:17 UTC) Moonrise 12:48AMMoonset 3:39PM Illumination 19% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 904 Am Pdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Today..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Tonight..W winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 8 seconds.
Sat..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 to 15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 8 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt with local gusts to 20 kt in the evening, becoming sw 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 2 to 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 15 seconds.
Sun..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. Mixed swell nw 3 ft at 9 seconds and S 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 10 kt in the evening, becoming 10 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 9 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts to 20 kt. Wind waves 1 to 3 ft. Mixed swell nw 4 to 5 ft and S 3 ft.
PZZ600 904 Am Pdt Fri Aug 14 2020
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 15z, or 8 am pdt, a 1030 mb high pressure center was located 900 nm west of portland or and a 1004 mb thermal low was located over southern nevada.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 141251 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 551 AM PDT Fri Aug 14 2020

SYNOPSIS. 14/402 AM.

Partly cloudy and very hot conditions are expected today especially for valley and interior areas. There will also be a slight chance of thunderstorms for the mountains and Antelope Valley this afternoon and Saturday afternoon and evening. The heat is expected to last into the middle of next week. Night and morning low clouds and fog will be minimal, and confined to areas near the coast.

SHORT TERM (TDY-SUN). 14/506 AM.

An upper low was located about 500 NM west of Pt. Conception early this morning and a strong upper high wa centered in Arizona. Southerly flow aloft across the region will continue to transport a modest amount of mid and high level moisture into the region today. While moisture is limited, models show decent instability this afternoon, so will keep slight chance of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast for the mtns from southeastern SLO County through L.A. County. Southerly flow aloft could allow any storm to drift into the Cuyama Valley and the Antelope Valley. With nearly all of the moisture above 700 mb, any storms will be high based, and the main threats from any storm would be dry lightning and gusty downdraft winds, causing elevated fire danger. Most likely, there will be just some buildups in the mountains today.

It was a crazy day temperature-wise on Thursday, especially north of Pt. Conception, with max temps varying wildly depending upon cloud cover and local wind effects. For instance the high at Paso Robles, where it was cloudy all day with occasional rain was just 74 degrees, while it was 95 degrees at Lompoc and 104 degrees in Santa Ynez, where it became sunny and there were some brief downslope winds.

Temps today should be a bit more straightforward, simply very hot just about everywhere except within a few miles of the beaches. With heights/thicknesses on the way up today, and with temps at 950 mb also rising, expect max temps to be higher today in most areas. Once again, temps will be trickiest on the Central Coast. Low level northeast flow on the Central Coast was making for a very warm night, and temps could rocket to very high levels before any seabreeze sets it today.

Most locations in the valleys. at lower elevations in the mountains, and in the Antelope Valley will have highs between 100 and 110 degrees today, with highs in the 90s across most interior sections of the coastal plain. Temps could approach 100 degrees across interior sections of the L.A. County coastal plain.

Expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight and Saturday, with little if any night through morning low clouds and fog. Tonight will be a very warm night, with lows in the 70s to lower 80s in most valley and foothill areas, and portions of the L.A. County coastal plain. Max temps on Sat should be very similar to those of today, maybe even a degree or two warmer in some interior sections. Models show slightly better moisture and instability Sat afternoon and evening across the mtns from eastern SBA County through L.A. County, so have added a slight chance of thunderstorms to those areas, and to the Antelope Valley.

The WRF shows an eddy circulation spinning up Sat night/Sun morning, with some night thru morning low clouds possibly pushing into coastal sections of L.A. and VTU Counties. Otherwise, expect mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. The GFS actually shows some showers spilling west of the mountains Sat night, but this looks a bit overdone, and for now will keep pops out of the forecast.

There should be some cooling on Sunday, especially west of the mountains, and if the eddy is as strong as indicated by the WRF, there may be more cooling than currently indicated in the forecast.

LONG TERM (MON-THU). 14/459 AM.

The upper pattern will change little Mon through Thu, with a strong upper high centered in southern Nevada much of the time. The high will peak in strength Mon and Tue, at around 600 dm, then will weaken a bit Wed and especially Thu. There are subtle differences between the operational runs of the EC and the GFS, with the EC showing more ridging and higher heights extending into the forecast area. The GFS shows the ridge axis lifting north of the region, with somewhat lower heights. In addition, it has better east to southeasterly flow aloft, and shows monsoonal moisture being transported into the region. For now, am reasonably confident that both max and min temps will remain well above normal through the period. If the EC is correct, excessive heat will persist, whereas if the GFS is correct, it will be somewhat less hot, muggier, and there will be a slight chance of showers/tstms each afternoon and evening in the mtns and deserts.

AVIATION. 14/1239Z.

At 1208Z, there was a surface based inversion up to around 2100 feet with a temperature of 30 degrees Celsius. There is high confidence in the current forecast through this afternoon for VFR conds. There is a 10 percent chance for VLIFR-LIFR conditions for KSMX through 15z. There is a 40 percent chance for MVFR conditions for smoke that could affect KPMD, KWJF and KBUR from the fires through 18Z. There is a slight chance for TSRA in local mountains which could cause some UDDF over higher terrain and LLWS for KPMD and KWJF if VCTS between 20z-02z.

KLAX . There is a 10 percent chance of LIFR conditions between 13Z and 16Z. There is a 10% chance for an easterly wind component over 8 kt from 12z-16z Sat morning.

KBUR . There is a 30 percent chance of MVFR conditions in smoke through 16Z.

MARINE. 14/221 AM.

Winds and seas will likely remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA) levels through Saturday morning. There is a 20-30 percent chance of SCA level gusts during the afternoon and evening hours each day from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island. By Saturday mid afternoon, A (SCA) has been issued for zones (PZZ673-676) mainly from Point Conception to San Nicolas Island through Saturday evening. Then good confidence grows with (SCA) level NW wind gusts across the entire outer waters late Monday afternoon through mid week, especially for the northern two outer water zones.

Sundowner winds now look a bit weaker for Saturday evening. There is a 30% chance that a (SCA) will be needed for the western portion for the Santa Barbara Channel for that time period. A relatively strong eddy will develop later Saturday evening through the overnight hours, and Southerly winds 10-15 mph can be expected across the SoCal Bight from L.A. County to Santa Barbara South Coast into Sunday morning.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Saturday for zone 36. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 9 PM Saturday to 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 36. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Monday for zones 37-38-44>46-51>54-88-547. (See LAXNPWLOX). Heat Advisory in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Sunday for zone 41. (See LAXNPWLOX). Excessive Heat Warning in effect from 11 AM this morning to 9 PM PDT Tuesday for zone 59. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM to 9 PM PDT Saturday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (SUN-THU).

Triple digit high temperatures and very warm nights will bring the potential for excessive heat over many areas through Monday and, for far inland areas, into Tuesday or longer. There is a slight chance of afternoon thunderstorms from Sunday through Tuesday.



PUBLIC . DB AVIATION . Kaplan MARINE . Kaplan SYNOPSIS . Sirard/DB

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
CPXC1 0 mi30 min ESE 1.9 G 2.9 68°F 1012.5 hPa58°F
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi22 min 54°F3 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi38 min SW 3.9 G 5.8 58°F4 ft1011.7 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi78 min S 6 G 12 62°F 1010.6 hPa (+1.7)
46259 49 mi22 min 61°F4 ft

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi22 minN 010.00 miFair85°F57°F40%1011 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi27 minWNW 610.00 miA Few Clouds77°F60°F56%1011.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE7CalmNW14
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1 day ago4NW5W4NW11W10NW11NW11NW10NW10NW12NW6W6NW6W3NW53CalmCalmW3CalmW44W5NW5
2 days agoW5W54NW6NW11NW9NW11NW12NW13NW11NW9NW7NW7NW9NW5NW7N6NW6NW7N5NW7W3N4W3

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 01:55 AM PDT     -2.50 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:47 AM PDT     0.30 feet High Tide
Fri -- 12:08 PM PDT     -0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:38 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 06:46 PM PDT     2.61 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-1.8-2.3-2.5-2.3-1.8-1.2-0.5-0.10.20.30.20-0.1-00.30.81.42.12.52.62.31.60.6-0.5

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:47 AM PDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:54 AM PDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:22 AM PDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:50 AM PDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Fri -- 01:13 PM PDT     2.32 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 04:40 PM PDT     Moonset
Fri -- 07:42 PM PDT     4.60 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:52 PM PDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.60.90.50.30.50.91.522.42.52.62.52.42.32.42.633.64.24.54.64.33.72.9

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of Southwest    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA (12,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Vandenberg AFB, CA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.