Monday, September20, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Avilla Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:47AMSunset 7:04PM Sunday September 19, 2021 9:23 PM PDT (04:23 UTC) Moonrise 5:53PMMoonset 4:20AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ645 Point Piedras Blancas To Point Sal Westward Out To 10 Nm- 830 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 19 2021
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming N 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft. NW swell 5 to 7 feet at 7 seconds.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 11 seconds.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 6 to 7 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft at 12 seconds. Patchy fog in the morning.
Tue night..Winds variable 10 kt or less. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft at 11 seconds. Patchy fog after midnight.
Wed..Winds variable 10 kt or less, becoming W 10 kt in the afternoon. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 3 to 4 ft. Patchy fog in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt in the evening, becoming 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog after midnight.
Thu..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 5 to 6 ft. Patchy fog.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 ft or less. NW swell 4 to 5 ft. Patchy fog.
PZZ600 830 Pm Pdt Sun Sep 19 2021
Synopsis for the southern california coast and santa barbara channel including the channel islands national marine sanctuary and national park..At 02z, or 7 pm pdt, a 1028 mb surface high was centered 800 nm nw of point conception while a 1004 mb thermal low was over nevada. The high will expand into oregon tonight then into the great basin Monday and Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Avilla Beach, CA
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location: 35.17, -120.74     debug


Area Discussion for - Los Angeles/Oxnard, CA
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FXUS66 KLOX 200258 AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA 758 PM PDT Sun Sep 19 2021

SYNOPSIS. 19/952 AM.

Below normal temperatures will continue today but significant warming expected Monday and Tuesday as offshore flow develops. Gusty northwest winds are expected today Santa Barbara County as well as northern Los Angeles County. Then breezy offshore winds expected Monday and Tuesday with much warmer and drier conditions. A cooling trend is expected the remainder of the week.

SHORT TERM (SUN-WED). 19/758 PM.

***UPDATE***

Latest satellite and surface observations indicate clear skies across the area. There are some gusty westerly winds across the Antelope Valley (gusts 30-40 MPH) and developing northerly winds through the Santa Ynez Range and I-5 Corridor (gusts 25-45 MPH).

Forecast-wise for the immediate short term, main concern will be developing northerly winds. High resolution models indicate increasing northerly offshore gradients tonight with both SBA-SMX and SBA-BFL peaking around -3.0 mb overnight. With some marginal support aloft, there should be enough to generate advisory-level winds across southern Santa Barbara county overnight with gusts 35-50 MPH impacting the area (including the Montecito Hills area). Additionally, northerly winds will pick up overnight through the I-5 corridor with gusts also in the 35-50 MPH range. So, current WIND ADVISORIES will remain in effect for these areas. Elsewhere, any offshore winds are expected to remain below advisory levels overnight.

Otherwise, the forecast will be very benign overnight. Stratus development will be very limited, likely only around the Lompoc area and the LA County coast. One thing to watch overnight will be the potential for the developing north to northeast winds aloft bringing in some smoke from the fires north of the area (Windy and KNP Complex).

Overall, current forecast looks to have good handle on the immediate short term. WIND ADVISORIES cover the developing winds very well. So, no significant updates are expected at this time.

***From Previous Discussion***

Northwest flow taking hold today following the earlier passage of a cold front that brought decent rains to the Pac NW. Expecting to see the typical late afternoon/early evening increase in winds across southern Santa Barbara County, especially west of Goleta, and then a little later for the I5 corridor. Gusty winds also in the Antelope Valley and along the Central Coast but expecting those to mostly remain just below advisory levels.

Northwest flow will weaken later tonight as high pressure strengthens over the Great Basin. And by Monday morning winds will shift to to northeast as we get our first early season offshore wind event. Hesitate to call it a Santa Ana as upper support is quite weak and winds likely won't reach the coast but that's essentially what it is. Without the upper support not expecting winds to reach advisory levels across LA/Ventura Counties but some of the more prone mountain areas in LA County could see a few hours of wind gusts up to 40 mph.

Temperatures will be tricky tomorrow as there still will be some marine layer presence along the coast, especially LA County, and not sure how much of the wind will reach down to the valleys. Previous events with similar parameters have resulted in a wide spread of temperatures, ranging from near 80 in downtown LA to as high as the low 90s. For now going for the mid range of that, with the warmer valleys getting into the 90s. Similar uncertainty along the Central Coast as some higher resolution models are showing at least a couple hours of northeast winds there. Could be a quick warm up with morning offshore flow before cooling in the afternoon and the typical sea breeze arrives.

Offshore gradients expected to be a little stronger Tuesday morning but with even less upper support and onshore trends by afternoon. In addition, high pressure aloft strengthens over California so again a fair amount of uncertainty in temperatures for coastal areas especially but certainly the potential for a warm day.

High pressure expected to weaken Wednesday as a trough arrives along the Pac NW. Temperatures still expected to be above normal but likely some cooling for coastal areas.

LONG TERM (THU-SUN). 19/154 PM.

Significant cooling likely the latter half of the week into the weekend as the trough evolves into a cutoff low. Deterministic runs today were in much better agreement showing the upper low cutting off near Pt Conception Thursday night and wobbling near there through Sunday. Both the GFS and ECMWF show a little moisture being pulled up from the south suggesting the possibility of some showers. However, there are quite a few ensemble solutions that are significantly different with no precip and for now am going to stick with a dry forecast but go along with pops in the 5-10 range.

High confidence in the cooling trend, though the magnitude of that cooling trend is uncertain. Big spreads here too in the ensembles and it really just depends on if, when and where the cutoff low develops. Hopefully more clarity in the next couple days.

AVIATION. 19/2320Z.

At 2200Z, the marine inversion at KLAX was based at 1200 feet. The top of the inversion was 2600 feet with a temperature of 20 degrees Celsius.

Overall, moderate to high confidence in 00Z TAF package. Forecast calls for CAVU conditions for all sites through TAF period. However there is a 20-30% chance of IFR conditions 10Z-16Z for KLAX/KLGB/KSMO. Also, there is a 20% chance of VSBYs 6SM FU for deserts and valleys overnight as some drift smoke may be transported into the area with developing northeasterly flow.

KLAX . Moderate confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 30% chance of IFR CIGs/VSBYs 10Z-16Z. No significant easterly wind component is expected.

KBUR . High confidence in 00Z TAF. There is a 20% chance of VSBYs 6SM FU 10Z-18z.

MARINE. 19/748 PM.

The northwest wind event is proving to be weaker than advertised. Decided to end the previous Small Craft Advisories (SCA) early. Also decided to downgrade the Gale Warnings to SCA and extended them into Sunday morning. Local and brief gusts to 35 knots are still possible, especially off Point Piedras Blancas on the Central Coast, but otherwise winds should stay 30 kt or less. Seas will be slightly lower than advertised as a result, but the seas will still be steep. Significant Santa Ana winds are not expected at all for Monday or Tuesday. Near SCA west winds possible over most waters, including the nearshore waters of the Santa Barbara Channel and Santa Monica Basin.

Dense fog and low visibilities are possible through Wednesday.

LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. CA . Wind Advisory in effect until 3 AM PDT Tuesday for zones 39-52-54. (See LAXNPWLOX). PZ . Small Craft Advisory in effect until 9 AM PDT Monday for zones 670-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

.HAZARD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK (WED-SUN).

No significant hazards expected.



PUBLIC . MW AVIATION . RAT MARINE . RK SYNOPSIS . MW

weather.gov/losangeles


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
PSLC1 - 9412110 - Port San Luis, CA 1 mi54 min N 2.9 G 5.1 64°F 57°F1014.8 hPa
46215 - Diablo Canyon, CA (076) 7 mi28 min 56°F6 ft
46011 - SANTA MARIA - 21 NM Northwest of Point Arguello, CA 21 mi34 min NW 21 G 27 59°F8 ft1014.5 hPa
PTGC1 - Point Arguello, CA 41 mi84 min N 17 G 19 60°F 1014 hPa (-0.0)
HRVC1 49 mi54 min 59°F 1014.8 hPa

Wind History for Port San Luis, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
San Luis Obispo, San Luis Obispo County-Mc Chesney Field, CA7 mi28 minNW 1110.00 miFair62°F55°F78%1014.3 hPa
Santa Maria Public Airport/Capt G Allan Hancock Field, CA24 mi33 minVar 48.00 miFair59°F55°F87%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KSBP

Wind History from SBP (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN7NW5N5N4NW4W7NW8NW10NW14NW11NW15NW15N13
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1 day agoW3CalmCalmSE4CalmS3CalmCalmE3SE4S3CalmCalm33SW7W85NW15NW12NW15NW13NW10NW8
2 days agoNW4NW64E3SE3CalmCalmSE43SE3S4S4CalmE4--336SW8SW7SW7SW5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Avila, California
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Avila
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:05 AM PDT     -3.12 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:49 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 10:30 AM PDT     1.83 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:08 PM PDT     -1.41 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 07:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:20 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 10:05 PM PDT     2.49 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.7-0.6-1.9-2.8-3.1-2.9-2-0.90.31.21.81.81.30.5-0.4-1.1-1.4-1.2-0.60.41.42.22.52.3

Tide / Current Tables for Morro Bay, California
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Morro Bay
Click for Map
Mon -- 05:13 AM PDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 06:23 AM PDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:50 AM PDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:17 AM PDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 04:54 PM PDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 05:24 PM PDT     1.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:02 PM PDT     Sunset
Mon -- 07:21 PM PDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 11:05 PM PDT     4.17 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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3.93.12.21.30.50.20.30.91.82.73.43.73.73.32.72.11.61.31.31.82.53.33.94.2

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