Wednesday, August21, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Hobucken, NC

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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:31AMSunset 7:50PM Wednesday August 21, 2019 8:25 PM EDT (00:25 UTC) Moonrise 10:17PMMoonset 10:52AM Illumination 62% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 21 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 736 Pm Edt Wed Aug 21 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 5 am edt Thursday...
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 25 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt until early morning. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early this evening.
Thu..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Thu night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt in the evening. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of tstms. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Sat..NW winds around 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms.
Sun..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobucken, NC
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location: 35.19, -76.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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Fxus62 kmhx 212352
afdmhx
area forecast discussion
national weather service newport morehead city nc
752 pm edt Wed aug 21 2019

Synopsis
High pressure offshore will extend west into eastern north
carolina through Thursday as a trough lingers well inland. A
cold front will slowly approach the area late this week and move
through the region this weekend.

Near term tonight
As of 735 pm Wednesday... Convection waned quickly this
afternoon along the sea-breeze, with eastern nc dry at the
moment. A broken line of thunderstorms currently west of a line
from raleigh to rockingham, nc, will continue to move east and
approach the western portions of the area later this evening.

The line of storms may weaken entirely before reaching the
western counties but will monitor and may have to add a slight
chance pop for these storms with the late evening update. Most
of the night will be dry with possibly some showers and
thunderstorms skirting the coast late. Muggy lows in the 70s
with some beach spots possibly holding around 80 with decent sw
breeze.

Short term Thursday
As of 230 pm Wednesday... Expect typical summertime pattern of
cu forming thru the morn with sct convection developing inland
during the aftn with little in way of upr lvl support to aid
shra tsra. Sea breeze may be slow to push inland so will have
chc pops almost to SRN cst. Highs again mainly upr 80s to lower
90s.

Long term Thursday night through Wednesday
As of 345 pm wed... A cold front will approach the area Friday,
and then slowly cross through the forecast area over the
weekend, leading to another period of unsettled weather which
may continue into early next week.

Thursday night... Will keep bulk of the region dry thur night as
any convection that develops in the afternoon should wane due to
lack of upr forcing and any activity being only diurnally
driven. May see some sct showers along the immediate coast
overnight, and kept a slgt chc here.

Friday through Friday night... A cold front will slowly move
towards northern nc Friday, and will act to trigger scattered to
widespread showers and thunderstorm especially over the
northern sections of the area by later afternoon. Have chance to
likely pops for this region, with some heavy rain and training
cells possible. Southern zones ESP near crystal coast and srn
obx should remain on the dry side. Convection should ease
southward through the overnight affecting much of the fa, but at
the same time slowly weakening ending the heaviest rain threat
after midnight. High temps will reach the low 90s inland, and
the mid to upper 80s along the coast. Low temps remain warm and
muggy.

Saturday... Better agreement between model guidance has finally
been reached, and it looks like the cold front will slowly drop
through nc on Saturday, passing south of the region and off the
southern nc coast by Saturday evening. Maintained the likely
pops for especially SRN zones on Sat where the best coverage of
precip is anticipated as the front moves south. Heavy rain and
training of cells is possible and flooding may be an issue,
especially considering the copious amounts of rain we have seen
this past week.

Sunday... Lesser precip covg latter half of the weekend, though
wrap around moisture due to low pres offshore will keep clouds
around and some sct showers, ESP srn and ERN zones. Low 80s
expected everywhere as cooler air on N to NE winds. Low temps
more seasonable, reaching the upper 60s interior to low mid
70s beaches.

Monday through Wednesday... Model differences exist for the
start of next week, with the GFS stalling the front and
immediately bringing it back north on Monday leading to more
rain chances, while the ECMWF and cmc keeps the front south and
east and more or less with best precip covg offshore over the
gulf stream, with high pressure building in from the north,
keeping the area mostly dry. Will continue to hedge towards
consensus drier soln with only chance pops both Monday and
Tuesday, best chances nearer the coast. Cooler temperatures
will likely continue with highs only in the low to mid 80s, and
low temps into the 60s and low 70s.

Aviation 00z Thursday through Monday
Short term through Thursday ...

as of 735 pm Wednesday...VFR will persist through the taf
period. Showers have ended across the area with loss of heating,
though an area of showers storms near raleigh will approach the
western sites pgv iso later this evening and may see temporary
reductions belowVFR in reduced ceilings vsbys if the broken
line holds together by roughly 02-04z. Guidance is showing no
fog low stratus again tonight so will go with persistence forecast
with partly cloudy to mostly clear skies. On Thursday, will see
cumulus develop through the morning with some convection possible
from mid day on but again limited coverage with any impacts
very brief.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 345 pm wed... MostlyVFR conditions expected through
Friday morning, when scattered to more widespread convection
develops as a cold front moves into the area late in the day and
overnight. The front will slowly move south through the
airspace this weekend, leading to some periods of extended low
visibilities and ceilings with continued high chances for rain
and thunderstorms.

Marine
Short term tonight and Thursday ...

as of 750 pm Wednesday... Latest surface and buoy data indicate
sw winds 10-20 kt with some gusts to 30 kt across the pamlico
sound and central coastal waters, with seas ranging 3-5 ft, 2-4
ft across northern waters. Decent pressure gradient expected
through the period with offshore high pressure and inland
trough. Most models show period of at least gusts to 25 kts for
coastal waters and pamlico sound through most of tonight. No
changes to ongoing SCA for these waters to cover the gusty
winds. Winds seas come down a bit Thursday morning but will
flirt with SCA again in gusts later Thursday. Seas will
generally be in the 3 to 5 foot range with possible some 6 foot
seas tonight outer central waters.

Long term Thursday night through Monday ...

as of 345 pm wed... Some marginal SCA conditions once again
Thursday evening, as thermal gradient is maximized once again,
with winds SW 15-20 and occasional wind gusts to 25 kts. Better
chc of SCA later Friday just ahead of advancing cold front and
gusty SW winds 20-25 develop with some brief 6 ft seas possible.

Winds and seas then weaken slightly as a slow moving cold front
enters the region. Winds will turn to the W at 10-15 kts
early Saturday, and then as the front slowly sinks south
winds will turn to the N NE behind it through the day. May see
some ocnl SCA develop again Sunday into early next week as
sustained 15-20 kt winds develop with seas approaching 6 ft.

Mhx watches warnings advisories
Nc... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 5 am edt Thursday for amz135.

Small craft advisory until 2 am edt Thursday for amz150-156-
158-231.

Small craft advisory until 7 am edt Thursday for amz152-154.

Synopsis... Mhx
near term... Dag rf
short term... Rf
long term... Tl sgk
aviation... Dag tl sgk
marine... Dag rf tl sgk


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 35 mi56 min SSW 12 G 15 83°F 87°F1017.6 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 39 mi62 min SSW 12 G 18 82°F 82°F1016.6 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 40 mi86 min SSW 14 G 17 83°F 1016.8 hPa (-0.4)77°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC12 mi90 minSSW 1110.00 miFair85°F73°F70%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSE3SW6--------SW4--SW4S3S5------SW8W12SW14S16
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1 day agoS7S5--------SW6--SW6--W7W6W9--W8SW5NW7S7S9S10--SW8S10S6
2 days agoS6SW6--------SW3----SW5S4SW6W8W9S4NE4S7--S9--S11S13SW10SW6

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina
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Ocracoke Inlet
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     0.36 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 11:59 AM EDT     2.11 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:20 PM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.91.71.410.60.40.40.50.91.31.722.121.71.410.70.50.60.81.11.41.7

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:28 AM EDT     0.14 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:28 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:50 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 12:08 PM EDT     0.97 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:00 PM EDT     0.21 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 07:45 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 11:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.80.60.40.30.10.10.20.30.50.70.910.90.80.60.40.30.20.20.30.40.60.7

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.