Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobucken, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 151127 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 627 AM EST Sun Dec 15 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will build across the area today then slide offshore tonight and Monday. A strong cold front will cross the area Tuesday night, with cold high pressure building in through Friday. A coastal storm is possible by next weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/. As of 620 Am Sunday . Quiet weather as high pres builds across with mainly clr skies. Low lvl thicknesses support temps near to slightly above normal with upr 50s to lower 60s expected.

SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/. As of 220 AM Sunday . High pressure will begin to slide offshore with skies remaining mostly clear. Winds will be quite light and with good radiational cooling have lows reaching upr 30s typically cooler inland spots with low/mid 40s beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 215 AM Sun . Warm weather is expected through Tuesday, before a cold front crosses the region and brings another round of showers Tuesday into Tuesday night. Much colder conditions expected behind the front Wednesday and Thursday, with a possible coastal storm developing next weekend.

Monday and Tuesday . High pressure will ridge in from offshore through Tuesday morning, as a strong cold front and upper level trough approach from the west. Warm SW flow and sunny skies will allow temps to climb into the upper 60s to low 70s Monday afternoon. Then on Tuesday, guidance has continued to delay the passage of the cold front slightly, which will lead to a warmer solution for Tuesday, with highs likely reaching the low 70s in many locations despite mostly cloudy skies.

Expect chances for showers to increase from west to east Tuesday morning, with widespread rain expected from late morning through Tuesday night. Have increased PoPs along the coast overnight, as the front looks a bit slower to exit off the coast. Given the warm and moist atmosphere, some isolated thunderstorms will also be possible, but should be relegated to the immediate coast and offshore. Severe threat looks marginal, as uncertainty remains with how much instability will develop onshore, but the dynamic profile is impressive with 50-70 kts of bulk shear present.

Wednesday and Thursday . Much colder conditions are expected behind the cold front Wednesday, as strong CAA will limit temps from rising very much during the day despite sunny skies. Expect below average highs, mostly in the low to mid 40s. Then, as the base of the upper level trough moves across the area Wednesday night and into Thursday, temps will drop into the upper 20s to low 30s overnight, and then only rebound into the low 40s for highs Thursday afternoon.

Friday and Saturday . Despite continued modest CAA Friday, heights will build as a weak upper level ridge approaches from the west. This will lead to moderating temperatures with highs reaching the upper 40s to low 50s across the area. Then on Saturday, forecast guidance is indicating the possibility of a strong coastal storm forming somewhere along or well off the East Coast. Considerable uncertainty remains, as models have varied greatly from run to run.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 620 AM Sunday . High confidence in pred VFR thru period with mainly clr skies as high pres builds across today and slides offshore tonight. Winds will be light to calm tonight and will likely see temps reach dewpts late so can not rule out some patchy fog developing, but not confident enough to add to fcst this far out.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 245 AM Sun . VFR conditions are expected through Tuesday morning when another cold front moves through the area and may bring a period of MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday morning. VFR conditions return later Wednesday through the end of the period.

MARINE. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 620 AM Sunday . Winds and seas have diminished a bit faster than expected with seas now below 6 ft nrn and srn wtrs so will drop SCA these wtrs. Will also end SCA central wtrs a bit earlier around midday given trend of seas dropping quickly.

Prev disc . Winds have started to diminish on the sounds as best surge departs and high pres builds in from the W. With winds expected to cont to diminish rest of the night have dropped the SCA for the Sounds and Alligator river. Winds still gusty coastal wtrs with rough seas 5 to 10 ft. Winds will diminish to 10 to 15 kts today then become light tonight as the high crosses. Seas will subside to 3 to 5 ft today with SCA ending nrn and srn wtrs mid day and central wtrs later this aftn. Seas will cont to subside to 2 to 4 ft tonight.

Long Term /Monday through Thursday/ . As of 245 AM Sun . Decent boating conditions expected Monday, but then winds and seas increase ahead of a cold front Tuesday, with continued strong winds and hazardous seas lasting through Thursday.

Winds will be SW 10-15 kts on Monday, and then increase to 20-30 kts on Tuesday. The cold front is expected to cross the waters overnight into Wednesday morning, with winds turning to the NNW at 25-30 kts through Wednesday afternoon. Thereafter, winds become 15-20 kts, except for a period Wednesday night into Thursday morning when winds increase to 20-30 kts. Seas will be 3-5 ft Monday, and then increase to 6-10 ft Tuesday. Seas then subside slightly to 5-8 ft on Wednesday through most of Thursday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until noon EST today for AMZ152-154.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF SHORT TERM . RF LONG TERM . SGK AVIATION . RF/SGK MARINE . RF/SGK

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	35 mi	49 min	WNW 1.9 G 4.1	47°F	55°F		1017.2 hPa (+2.6)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	39 mi	49 min	WNW 17 G 19	51°F	58°F		1016.1 hPa (+3.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	40 mi	49 min	W 8 G 9.9	51°F			1017.4 hPa (+2.8)	47°F

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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SW4 G7

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W11 G20

SW8 G14

SW6 G12

SW7 G11

SW8 G13

W6 G15

W7 G16

W8 G15

W8 G18

W5 G11

W9 G17

W5 G10

W4 G11

NW7

NW2 G7

W4 G8

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W3 G6

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N6 G9

NE7 G10

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NW4 G10

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SE4 G7

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SW6 G10

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SW4 G10

SW5 G9

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N11 G16

NE14 G23

NE14 G22

NE14 G23

NE16 G21

N15 G21

N16 G20

N16 G21

N14 G21

N12 G18

N11 G15

N11 G15

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N9 G12

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N9 G13

NE8 G12

NE9 G13

N8 G12

NE7 G12

N7 G10

N6 G9

N8

NE7 G10

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	12 mi	1.9 hrs	W 8	10.00 mi	Fair	45°F	39°F	80%	1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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S7

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W18 G26

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W18 G25

W19 G27

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W14

W16 G23

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N7

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NE17 G25

NE19 G26

NE20 G26

NE15 G25

N17 G26

N16 G22

N13 G23

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N13 G21

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NE13 G20

NE10

NE12 G18

NE14 G21

NE11 G17

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (7,2,3,4)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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