Marine Forecasts

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hobucken, NC

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Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC

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FXUS62 KMHX 080801 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 401 AM EDT Sat Aug 8 2020

SYNOPSIS. A weak frontal boundary will linger well inland today as a weak trough continues near the coast. The front will push offshore on Sunday with high pressure building in from the north.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 330 AM Saturday . A mid-level shortwave will push off the mid-Atlantic states this morning with broad troughing continuing across the Southeast while a weak surface trough/frontal boundary continues across the piedmont. Expect another round of shower and thunderstorms today as a moist and unstable airmass persisting and expect convection to develop on the sea breeze and lingering boundaries across the region. Most storms will remain below severe limits with weak 0-6km bulk shear mainly less than 20 kt, however PW values around 2" will bring heavy rainfall rates and could see localized flooding in areas that see training cells again this afternoon. Temps will be seasonably warm with highs in the upper 80s inland to mid 80s coast.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/. As of 345 AM Saturday . Ongoing convection will gradually wane through the evening with loss of surface heating and expect mainly dry conditions after midnight, though could see isolated showers over the coastal waters skirting coastal areas. Lows expected in the low to mid 70s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 3 AM Sat . Seasonable weather on tap through the long term period, with only minor day to day variability owing to subtle changes in the upper level pattern and strength of low level WAA.

Sunday and Monday . Expansive ridging aloft settles over the southern US, though there will be a localized weakness or very week shortwave that will linger over the Carolinas. At the surface, Bermuda high pressure becomes the dominate feature as a very weak surface boundary dissipates over the area, with mainly light SW flow and humid conditions persisting. While the broad subsidence aloft solicits below-normal POPs, the potential for the locally weaker subsidence justifies keeping 30-40% POPs focused mainly along and inland of the typical sea breeze corridor each afternoon. The severe weather threat is low, as updrafts will struggle to persist in the weakly sheared environment given the drier air aloft. Very slow storm motion could bring some minor local flooding issues under the strongest storms, but significant flash flooding is not expected. Temps will be near normal with plentiful sunshine each morning prompting temps to climb to near 90 away from the beaches.

Tuesday through Friday . A more pronounced weakness aloft develops mid to late week, with afternoon convective activity increasing in coverage each successive day. Continued SW flow on the periphery of the Bermuda high will keep ample low level moisture in place through the period, with storm trends following mainly diurnal patterns, with the greatest threat for thunderstorms coming each afternoon along and ahead of the sea breeze. Waning upper level subsidence and weak surface troughing gradually developing inland will allow for greater storm coverage (~50% POP by Thu/Fri), and would be expected to initiate convection earlier in the day with less capping in place. Temps will generally continue to be near normal, with convection being the primary culprit for deviations from normal.

AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /through Tonight/ . As of 2 AM Saturday . Pred VFR conditions expected through the TAF period outside of showers and thunderstorms expected to develop late morning through the afternoon. Convective debris clouds are limiting radiational so far this morning but cannot rule patchy fog or stratus developing late if breaks develop. Guidance is suggesting PGV and ISO have a better chance to see sub-VFR conditions this morning.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 3 AM Sat . VFR prevails through the coming week, with the only potential for flight restrictions coming with scattered afternoon convection and patchy morning fog each day.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Tonight/ . As of 4 AM Saturday . A weak trough of low pressure continues inland with weak pressure gradients across the waters through the short term. Winds will generally be less than 15 kt with seas around 2-3 ft.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 3 AM Sat . It is tough to find a more prolonged period of favorable marine conditions than we will experience in the coming week. Expect S to SW winds around 10 kt or less early to mid week, with gusts to around 15 kt each afternoon as the sea breeze develops and differential heating tightens the gradient a bit locally. Seas persist around 2 ft, with only minor medium period swell arriving to local waters and minimal contribution from locally generated windswell.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . SK SHORT TERM . SK LONG TERM . CB AVIATION . SK/CB MARINE . SK/CB

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC	35 mi	57 min	SSW 7 G 9.9	81°F	85°F		1019.3 hPa
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC	39 mi	57 min	WSW 4.1 G 7	80°F	83°F		1019.3 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC	40 mi	45 min	SW 7 G 9.9	81°F			1019 hPa (-1.2)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Piney Island, Bt-11 Bombing Range, NC	12 mi	49 min	S 4	10.00 mi	Fair	79°F	72°F	79%	1019.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KNBT

Wind History from NBT (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke Inlet, North Carolina

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Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East

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Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (4,6,7,8)

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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC

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