Sunrise 6:10 AM   Sunset 7:58 PM Moonrise 3:34 AM   Moonset 4:21 PM

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AMZ135 Pamlico Sound- 644 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Today - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft this morning, then 1 ft. A slight chance of tstms. A chance of showers until late afternoon, then a slight chance of showers late. Tonight - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms after midnight. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers with a slight chance of tstms. Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms after midnight. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening. Wed - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Wed night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Thu - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon. Thu night - SW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ100 644 Am Edt Sun May 5 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Front that has lingered over the area since Friday retreats nward while becoming more diffuse. Benign winds/seas into the early week but shower and tstorm activity is expected.

FXUS62 KMHX 051115 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 715 AM EDT Sun May 5 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will rebuild offshore while weak troughing continues across the Eastern Seaboard for the next few days, but warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions.
Drier but hotter conditions briefly expected Wednesday, before an approaching strong frontal system brings unsettled weather back to the area Thursday and Friday and potentially into the beginning of next weekend.

NEAR TERM /SUNDAY/
As of 0700 Sunday...High pressure remains just offshore this morning. Ongoing moisture advection continues to increase with low level flow becoming more SSEerly. Precip continues along a fairly narrow band from Eern Carteret county Nward along the Inner Banks through the morning, generally aligned along the remnant Eern portion of the front. There was some discrepancy with where the front/precip band would line up exactly with some of the Wern- most solutions approaching the hwy 17 corridor. Have opted to keep this band closer to the Eern solutions which is working out fairly well. There will be 3 main focuses of precip activity today. First, the ongoing activity associated with the remnants of the front will continue along a mostly S-N line, slowly nudging Eward through the morning.
Second, this afternoon shower and tstorm activity will increase from the W this afternoon with the support of a passing shortwave. Third, despite the cloudiness, there will still be a weak seabreeze originating over the Crystal Coast this afternoon which could spark some showers/tstorms along it as it moves inland. Iso- sct showers remain possible elsewhere. Chc PoPs cover the area through the morning with a period of LKLY in the afternoon for the far Wern edge of the FA CAPE will be sufficient but shear will be lacking once again, so tstorms remain possible but the severe threat is low. Mostly cloudy to OVC skies expected through the day due to convection and debris clouds which will limit MaxTs Sunday; approaching 80 away from the coast, low 70s beaches.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/
As of 0345 Sunday...SFC high off the NECONUS gets shunted S by a front working through New England tonight which will slowly veer winds through the period to become SSWerly in the early morning hours MON. Precip potential wanes overnight with mid and upper level flow becoming more zonal as high shifts Sward.
However, moisture content remains relatively high, near the 90th percentile of climatology which means that ISO to widely SCT showers cannot be completely ruled out. Mostly Serly flow and mostly cloudy skies keeps MinTs warm and muggy, generally mid 60s, upper 60s beaches.

LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As 330 AM Sun...Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of the week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By Wednesday drier conditions will briefly return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity. Then an approaching strong frontal system will bring unsettled weather back to the area late Thursday through Friday and possible into Saturday.

Monday through Wednesday...Winds will veer to the SW Monday and Tuesday as high pressure rebuilds offshore. Despite this, a combination of weak troughing inland and deep moist southerly flow will bring fairly unsettled conditions through Tuesday.
Showers and convection will be diurnally enhanced and will target the NC coastal plain. Temperatures will be in the upper 70s to low 80s Monday, and the low to mid 80s Tuesday.

Drier conditions are briefly expected Wednesday as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. Increasing low level thicknesses and continued SW flow will result in hot and humid conditions with afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and low to mid 80s along the coast.

Thursday through Saturday...Weak upper level troughing will again redevelop overhead Thursday with a large trough looming across the Great Lakes. This will bring a more conducive environment for afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm development with hot and humid conditions expected again.
However, questions remain about the quickness with which troughing will develop locally and have will limit precip chances to around 50% at this time range.

A robust shortwave trough will swing southward into the area on Friday with a surface cold front also surging south from the Mid-Atlantic. Ahead of this front a moist and unstable airmass will persist, and the initial impression of this weather pattern indicates severe weather will be possible, with potential for a significant event if all ingredients come together. That being said, much can change at this time scale but we will continue to monitor this potential.

The front will push through the area sometime Friday night or early Saturday, with mostly dry conditions expected by Saturday.
A more seasonable airmass will move in behind the front with highs near to just below normal.

AVIATION /11Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0700 Sunday...TAF sites currently showing VFR flight cats this morning and this will be the predominant set up through the day outside of showers/tstorms. A band of S-N oriented showers will continue through the morning while slowly nudging Eward with periods of sub-VFR conditions likely near it. Some of the showers could be locally heavy bringing occasional IFR/LIFR conditions. Generally expect this line to remain E of the TAF sites. Pred VFR expected Sunday afternoon but scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring periods of sub- VFR conditions with greatest chances occuring across the Wern coastal plain and a lower possibility for EWN/OAJ to see tstorms pop up along the seabreeze. Have included TEMPO MVFR groups to try to highlight the most likely times for each TAF site. CIGs lower from W to E overnight reaching IFR levels for inland sites in the early morning hours. OAJ has a low end chance of seeing IFR CIGs Mon morning, but confidence is low considering recent model runs have trended more Wward with the limit of the IFR CIGs . Have included a few IFR deck for OAJ in early morning.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Generally VFR conditions are expected through mid next week, however unsettled conditions every day except Wednesday could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Sunday Night/...
As of 0400 Sunday...Winds slowly veer through the short term, SEerly 10-15kt through the morning, Serly overnight still 10-15kt but outer waters near GStream 15-20kt. Seas will be 2-4 ft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through the period but the severe threat is low.

LONG TERM /Monday through Thursday/...
As of 330 AM Sun...Decent boating conditions will continue early this week. Worsening conditions are expected by mid week with Small Craft conditions likely developing across portions of the coastal waters.

Winds Monday will generally be SW 10-15 kts, and then increase to 15-20 kts Tuesday. By Tuesday night, winds will strengthen slightly more, which will lead to occasional 25 kt gusts across the coastal waters through Wednesday. SW winds will increase further Thursday as the gradient increaes ahead of a cold front, and SW winds will become 20-30 kts.

Seas will be mostly 2-4 ft through Tuesday morning, and will then increase to 3-5 ft. Late Tuesday night some 6 foot seas will develop across portions of the coastal waters through Wednesday. Seas will increase to 5-7 ft Thursday in response to strengthening winds.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Sun -- 01:18 AM EDT     -0.07 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:34 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:11 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:07 AM EDT     2.19 feet High Tide
Sun -- 01:28 PM EDT     -0.11 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:21 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 07:34 PM EDT     2.59 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:55 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

Ocracoke
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:24 AM EDT     -0.04 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 04:31 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 06:05 AM EDT     1.11 feet High Tide
Sun -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 12:34 PM EDT     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 05:18 PM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 06:32 PM EDT     1.31 feet High Tide
Sun -- 07:53 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2), Tide feet

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Morehead City, NC,