Friday, December4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bayview, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 4:57PM Friday December 4, 2020 6:53 PM EST (23:53 UTC) Moonrise 8:44PMMoonset 10:39AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 402 Pm Est Fri Dec 4 2020
.gale warning in effect from 1 am est Saturday through Saturday morning...
.low water advisory in effect from 4 am to 4 pm est Saturday...
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt after midnight, becoming W 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt late. Waves a moderate chop, increasing to rough after midnight. A chance of showers early this evening, then showers with a chance of tstms late this evening and early morning. A chance of showers late.
Sat..NW winds 25 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt, diminishing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt in the afternoon. Waves very rough, diminishing to rough in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers in the morning.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.
Sun night..W winds around 5 kt, becoming ne after midnight. Waves flat. A chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..NE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. Showers likely.
Mon night..NW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening.
Tue..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bayview, NC
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location: 35.38, -76.67     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 042149 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 449 PM EST Fri Dec 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure overhead will slide off the coast today. A strong low pressure system will move through the region tonight and tomorrow. Colder high pressure then builds in from the west early next week. Another strong storm system is then expected for develop off the NC coast Monday, with high pressure building in behind in through mid week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/. As of 415 PM Fri . The upper low currently centered over central Tenn will begin to fill and become negatively tilted as it lifts into the mid-Atlantic as a northern stream shortwave digs into the Ohio Valley and northern mid-Atlantic states. A sfc low reflection currently over northern GA/eastern TN will rapidly deepen as it moves across the Carolinas into SE VA tonight with a strong cold front pushing across ENC late.

Biggest concerns with this system continues to be severe weather potential just ahead of the surface low and attendant cold front and SPC has upgraded most of the area into a slight risk for severe storms. Kinematics will be strong with 0-3 km helicity of 200-300 m2/s2 and effective shear greater than 50 kt. As is typical this time of year, biggest limiting factor will be instability. SPC HREF surface CAPE ensemble mean paints only 500-1000 J/kg along and east of Highway 17. If a storm can sustain itself, the environment is suitable for damaging wind gusts and an isolated tornado or two. Highest threat window is roughly 03-09z with areas east of Highway 17 the most vulnerable.

Locally heavy rainfall is anticipated with PWATs approaching 1.5" along the coast. Due to the fast moving nature of this system, generally expect rainfall amounts less than an inch but could see isolated higher amounts in heavier downpours.

Strong gradient winds will develop as the low lifts north into Virginia by Saturday morning. Southerly winds of 25-35 mph tonight will quickly veer westerly tomorrow morning in the cyclone's wake. Gusts up to 55 mph are likely for the Outer and continue the Wind Advisory for the overnight period into Saturday morning.

Temperatures generally hold steady overnight in the upper 50s to low 60s, before beginning to fall quickly early Saturday morning as low-level thicknesses plummet with CAA commences behind the low. Expect lows to fall into the low to mid 50s before daybreak.

Coastal flooding and surf issues are expected with this system . see the Tides & Coastal Flooding section for details.

SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/. As of 430 PM Fri . The deepening low pressure system will be quickly lifting away from the are Sat. Showers and storms should be offshore by 12z Saturday with clearing skies through the morning. Strong westerly winds will continue through the morning hours, then diminish through the afternoon. The Wind Advisory continues into the morning hours for the OBX with coastal flooding concerns persisting into the afternoon. Strong CAA persists through the day with little warming and highs only expected in the mid to upper 50s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 325 AM Fri . The latter half of the weekend is expected to be dry but seasonably cool with high pressure building in from the west. Another coastal storm is expected to form Monday through Monday night off the NC coast. Then, high pressure will build in from the SW through mid week.

Saturday night through Monday Night . High pressure will build into the area from the west Saturday night and Sunday, but with cold 850 mb temps still overhead expect highs only in the low 50s.

After some hinting in them past few days, most of the main global model suite has keyed in on the formation of yet another rapidly deepening low pressure system over the East Coast. A cut off upper low over the 4 corners region will now phase with a northern stream shortwave trough dropping south out of the Mid West late Sunday. The result of this will be cyclogenesis off the SE coast early Monday morning. This low will then move up the east coast while rapidly deepening Monday through Monday night. Fortunately the low may track far enough offshore for the major impacts to remain just off the coast. Still, expect at least some gusty winds and light to moderate rainfall across the area, though QPF amounts appear to be light. With widespread clouds and northerly winds, temps will struggle to get much past the upper 40s for highs. As the low really cranks up Monday night, stronger CAA will develop, with temps dropping into the 30s. Decent coverage of light rain is expected to still be over the area, and while surface temps likely remain above freezing it is worth mentioning that perhaps some snow could mix in with the rain across the NW coastal plain counties.

Tuesday through Thursday . Colder weather will continue Tuesday behind the deepening low pressure system, with highs only in the mid 40s despite sunny skies. Then Wednesday large scale troughing may finally exit the east coast, as heights builds to the west. We'll likely see moderating temps into the 50s on Wednesday and possibly into the low 60s by Thursday.

AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /Through Saturday Morning/ . As of 1245 PM Friday . VFR cats prevail into tonight with winds out of the south 7-10kts. Cloud coverage increases ahead of low pressure system moving through the area tonight. Rain showers are expected associated with a line of semi-organized storms moving through the region between 2Z and 9Z which could potentially bring MVFR CIGs. There is a possibility for tempo IFR CIGs and VIS at terminals that experience heavy rainfall, however guidance keeps flight cats in MVFR at worst so the IFR conditions were omitted from the TAFs but worth mentioning here as a possibility. Gusty winds will steadily increase through the night from 10-15kts to 15-18kts with gusts up to 30-35kts as the line passes. Once the Low moves off the coast, winds will quickly veer to Werly by 8/9Z and will not calm to below 15kts until the end of the period.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/ . As of 400 AM Fri . VFR conditions are expected through Sunday with high pressure over the area. Then another strong storm system will develop off the NC coast on Monday likely leading to some extended periods of sub-VFR conditions Monday morning through early Tuesday morning. Then, high pressure builds in behind that system with VFR conditions expected through mid week.

MARINE. Short Term /Through Saturday/ . As of 445 PM Fri . Conditions will quickly deteriorate through this evening as a low pressure area crosses North Carolina and then rapidly deepens just off the coast of Virginia. Seas will quickly build to 10-15 feet overnight as winds rapidly surge to 25-35 kt shortly after midnight with gusts up to 45-50 kt especially for outer waters. As low pressure lifts north late tonight and early Sat, winds will veer westerly but still at 25-35 knots across all the waters. Gale Warnings continues for all waters starting tonight and extending into Sat afternoon for the northern coastal waters.

Long Term /Saturday night through Tuesday/ . As of 400 AM Fri . Winds continue to subside to NW 15-20 kts Saturday night. Light winds out of the west are expected Sunday. Then on Monday another strong low pressure system is expected to form, this time off the NC coast, and strong winds are likely to develop, possibly to gale force, across the coastal waters and sounds. Winds will strengthen out of the north through the day Monday, becoming 20-30 kts overnight. Winds then slowly subside through the day Tuesday.

Seas will subside to 5-8 ft Saturday night and finally drop below 6 ft Sunday afternoon, and remain 2-4 ft through Monday morning. Then later Monday, in response to strong winds, seas will build to at least 5-8 ft Monday night and into Tuesday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 325 AM Fri . Strong southerly winds late tonight becoming westerly tomorrow morning will lead to high water levels across the sound side Outer Banks from Duck down to Ocracoke. These rises are likely to cause some minor flooding of low lying areas, so as a result a coastal flood advisory has been issued.

On the other side of the sound, low water along the Pamlico and Neuse Rivers could lead to impacts to marine navigation, so a Low Water Advisory has been issued as well.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . Wind Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ196- 203>205. Coastal Flood Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for NCZ203>205. High Surf Advisory from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for NCZ196- 204-205. MARINE . Low Water Advisory from 4 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for AMZ136- 137. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ136-137. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ135-154-156. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Saturday for AMZ131-230-231. Gale Warning from 1 AM to 3 PM EST Saturday for AMZ150. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Saturday for AMZ152. Gale Warning from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Saturday for AMZ158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . SGK AVIATION . SGK/CEB MARINE . SGK/MS TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 46 mi53 min SSE 9.9 G 12 65°F 59°F1017.1 hPa (-2.0)
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 53 mi113 min S 13 G 14 66°F 1018 hPa (-1.8)
HCGN7 - 8654467 - Hatteras, NC 53 mi53 min S 8 G 12 67°F 64°F1017.6 hPa (-1.5)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC24 mi58 minSE 610.00 miOvercast65°F54°F68%1016.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE6S4S6S4S5S4SE5SE5
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S4SW6S4SW6SW5CalmCalm
2 days agoW3W6W7W3W3W3CalmW4W4W4SW4SW6W3W6W7W6W8W9W6NW5W7
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Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:56 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:59 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:38 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 11:03 AM EST     2.32 feet High Tide
Fri -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:56 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:45 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:32 PM EST     1.81 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.71.410.60.30.20.30.71.21.82.22.32.21.91.510.60.30.20.30.71.11.51.8

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:02 AM EST     0.09 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:56 AM EST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:01 AM EST     1.17 feet High Tide
Fri -- 10:36 AM EST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:02 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 08:41 PM EST     Moonrise
Fri -- 10:30 PM EST     0.92 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.70.50.30.10.10.20.30.60.91.11.21.110.80.50.30.20.10.20.30.60.80.90.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.