Sunrise 6:20 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 9:57 PM   Moonset 6:39 AM

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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 730 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Sat night - SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun - S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sun night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Mon night - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue - SW winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Wed night - SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop.

AMZ100 730 Pm Edt Fri Apr 26 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - Moderate to breezy ne winds will continue through tonight. Seas will remain elevated north of cape hatteras into Sat afternoon. Benign coastal conditions likely through the rest of the period.

FXUS62 KMHX 270010 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 810 PM EDT Fri Apr 26 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will remain in control while gradually sliding offshore this weekend into early next week. A few upper disturbances will bring better chances for precipitation late next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
As of 745 PM Fri...Forecast on track and only made minor adjustments for the evening update.

Previous Discussion...Latest analysis shows strong 1033mb high pressure centered over the NE US, ridging southwestward into the Carolinas. Quiet weather continues tonight as high pressure slowly move southeastward. Lows falling into the upper 40s and low 50s across the area.

SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/
As of 220 PM Fri...Upper ridge will continue to build over the SE US as strong high pressure becomes centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast. This should lead to another pleasant, dry spring day with temps a few degrees below normal thanks to low level easterly flow. Highs ranging from the 60s along the Outer Banks to low to mid 70s inland.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As of 300 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Well above normal temperatures Tuesday-Thursday

- Thunderstorm risk may return mid to late-week

FORECAST DETAILS

The most prominent feature in the long-term period will be an amplified upper level ridge forecast to develop over the Eastern U.S. this weekend and into early next week. Beneath the ridge, warm/above normal low-level thicknesses are forecast to develop.
There may be some mid-level cloudiness around over the weekend, but by early next week, the combination of mostly sunny skies, warm thicknesses, a reduced risk of precipitation, and persistent southwesterly flow should support a period of well above normal temperatures focused in the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. Both deterministic and ensemble guidance support this, and with this forecast update, I've bumped temps up towards the 75th percentile of guidance. Inland, this suggests highs in the upper 80s to near 90. Along the coast, this suggests mid to upper 70s to near 80 degrees. With persistent southerly flow, dewpoints are forecast to steadily increase early next week as well, which may allow heat indices to reach the 90s. While not headline-worthy, it's still noteworthy as this would increase the risk of heat exhaustion for those with prolonged exposure.

From mid to late-week, model guidance begins to differ, but the general theme is for the ridge to breakdown. While not immediate, the lack of ridging could eventually open the door to an increase in the risk of convection, if for no other reason than the daily seabreeze. Several shortwaves are forecast to pass over, or near, the Carolinas late in the week, which would also support an increase in the risk of convection. Of note, CIPS and CSU severe weather guidance are showing a modest signal for severe weather potential late-week, although deterministic guidance show less of a signal. Despite the differences, it's something to watch as we move into next week. Forecast-wise, we'll show a low-end risk of thunderstorms Thursday into Friday (10-30% chance). While still warm, temperatures late in the week should lower some compared to early in the week, especially with the potential for thunderstorms and more cloudiness around at times.

AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 745 PM Fri...VFR conditions expected through the period.
Some higher based 5-10K based clouds will move from the west late tonight and early Sat. Signals continue to look low for any fog and/or stratus threat overnight. HRRR probs are highest over southern Lenoir and Duplin Counties, though only in the 10-20% range.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...The expected synoptic weather pattern carries a high probability of VFR conditions into early next week, with little to no aviation impacts.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Saturday/...
As of 8 PM Fri...Latest obs show NE winds 10-20 kt with seas 4-6 ft north of Ocracoke and 3-5 ft south. Gusts have dropped below 25 kt and will continue to diminish overnight so have allowed the SCA to expire south of Ocracoke and the Pamlico Sound. SCAs will continue through late tonight into Saturday for the northern and central waters. Winds will grad veer and slowly diminish to 10-15 kt overnight. Though elevated seas will linger north of Ocracoke. Strong high pressure becomes centered along the Mid- Atlantic coast Saturday, with winds becoming more easterly. E winds 10-15 kt with occasional gusts to 20 kt early. Seas will continue to grad diminish to 3-6 ft, potentially lingering at 6 ft across the outer central waters through late afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday night through Wednesday/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

KEY MESSAGES

- Good boating conditions expected late-weekend into early next week

FORECAST DETAILS

High pressure overhead this weekend will shift offshore early next week, with inland troughing developing in the lee of the Appalachians. Winds will be very light over the weekend, then will steadily increase early next week with southwesterly flow of 10-20kt common. Seas of 3-5 ft will be common through early next week, setting up good boating conditions for several days.
The one exception is early this weekend as seas will remain elevated within the northeasterly background swell that has been impacting the area for the past few days.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...Beach Hazards Statement through Saturday evening for NCZ203- 205.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ150.
Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ152-154.

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Core Creek Bridge
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Fri -- 05:31 AM EDT     0.19 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 06:21 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 11:09 AM EDT     1.97 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:18 PM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 11:22 PM EDT     2.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

North River Bridge
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Fri -- 06:20 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:40 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 12:08 PM EDT     1.68 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.18 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

North River Bridge, North Carolina, Tide feet

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