Saturday, July4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Greenville, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:57AMSunset 8:30PM Saturday July 4, 2020 8:34 AM EDT (12:34 UTC) Moonrise 7:20PMMoonset 4:15AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 655 Am Edt Sat Jul 4 2020
Today..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N late. Waves light chop, diminishing to flat late. A chance of showers and tstms this afternoon.
Tonight..E winds around 5 kt. Waves flat. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Tue..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Greenville, NC
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location: 35.58, -77.34     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 041122 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 722 AM EDT Sat Jul 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure builds into the area behind a backdoor cold front through the weekend. An area of low pressure may develop and slowly lift along the Southeast coast next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 715 AM Sat . Forecast reasonable shape with no changes planned. 00Z ECMWF continued to remain on the dry side with the 06Z NAM/GFS still showing development albeit with slightly lower QPF.

Prev disc . Upper level analysis shows broad ridging extending from the Rio Grande Valley northeastward into the Great Lakes with weak troughing easing out of New England towards the mid- Atlantic early this morning (depicted by a thin ribbon of moisture on WV imagery). The surface pressure pattern is diffuse with eastern NC sandwiched between relatively low pressure off the Delmarva Peninsula and weak high pressure over the Great Lakes.

Main challenges today are convection this afternoon and high temperatures. The aforementioned trough will continue to ease south this morning forcing a channel of vorticity to dive south into the Carolinas, helping to push a weak backdoor front into our CWA this afternoon. This boundary will be the focus for the highest potential of shower/thunderstorm activity this afternoon. Like yesterday the ECMWF remains the most pessimistic with the CAMs and GFS more robust. Kept high chance PoPs along or north of Highway 264 mainly after 18z. Not anticipating much of a severe threat given very weak shear and MLCAPEs of 1000-1500 J/kg. A few isolated showers and storms could also form along suppressed sea/sound breezes.

It will be hot today with temperatures easily reaching into the low to possibly mid-90s. Much of model guidance initialized with 1000-850 mb thicknesses about 10-15 meters too high compared to the 00Z MHX sounding, so went with highs a couple degrees below the warmest guidance to correct this bias. With dew points in the upper 60s to low 70s, a few spots could see heat indices reach triple digits.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/. As of 315 AM Sat . The backdoor front advances southward tonight, eventually stalling near the Crystal Coast and lingering for much of the overnight period. Some very isolated shower/thunderstorm Gulf Stream activity is possible late in the period. Otherwise it will be dry especially north of Highway 70. Depending on the coverage of rainfall today, an increased threat for fog/low stratus exists especially for areas along the Albemarle Sound given light winds and relatively clear skies behind the front.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 240 AM Saturday . A weak front will dissipate across Eastern NC Sunday into Monday. Then low pressure will develop to the south around Tue, moving slowly northeast along of just off the the coastal Carolinas mid through late next week resulting in unsettled weather for most of the upcoming week.

Sunday and Monday . The remnant front dissipating across the area should act as a focus for mainly diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms both days. Warm and humid conditions will prevail with highs mainly in the mid to upper 80s.

Tuesday through Friday . The models continue to show the development of a surface low over the Deep South early next week which is then forecast to move slowly over or just off the Carolinas mid through late next week. There is not very good agreement with the track and development of this system, thus will cap PoPs in the high chance range through the period. The circulation around this low, however, will draw deeper moisture north into the area and enhance coverage/intensity of showers and thunderstorms especially during peak heating. Temperatures should be near normal, with the potential for some below normal highs on the days with more extensive cloud cover and precipitation.

AVIATION /11Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. Short Term /through 12Z Sunday/ . As of 720 AM Sat . High confidence in VFR conditions through the period. Only some high cirrus to speak of this morning with no fog reported outside of Kenansville. Any patch fog that is around should dissipate in the next hour.

Backdoor cold front eases into the area starting early this afternoon as decaying upper energy dives south out of the mid- Atlantic. This feature will spark showers and storms along the Albemarle Sound and push south, with the highest and best coverage for PGV and ISO. There is also a smaller chance of isolated convective activity along a suppressed sea/sound breeze. Fog chances increase late tonight especially in the footprint of today's precipitation. Light W winds in the morning veer easterly behind the front at 5 knots or less.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 240 AM Saturday . Widely scattered to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected mainly during peak heating Sunday and Monday. More widespread showers and thunderstorms should develop by midweek as a slow moving area of low pressure moves into the area. Expect mostly VFR conditions outside of showers and thunderstorms through Monday with more widespread sub VFR conditions possible Tuesday and Wednesday. As usual, with very moist low levels, morning stratus and fog may occur in areas that receive rain on the previous day leading to sub VFR conditions.

MARINE. Short Term /through Saturday/ . As of 320 AM Sat . Benign boating conditions across the waters this morning with seas around 1-2 feet with a few 3 footers in the outer waters. Winds are westerly at around 5-15 kt. Westerly winds will continue at a similar intensity through the morning before a backdoor front crosses the waters early this afternoon, resulting in winds veering north/northeasterly for the northern and central waters, with a brief surge of 15 kt and gusts to 20 kt immediately behind the boundary. The front is expected to stall along the Crystal Coast, and winds across the southern waters are expected to remain southwest to westerly at 5-15 kt through the period. Seas hold at 2-3 feet for all waters today and tonight.

Long Term /Sunday through Wednesday/ . As of 240 AM Saturday . Benign marine conditions will continue through mid next week with a generally light gradient over the waters resulting in winds 5-15 kt through the period. Winds will be southerly through Wed with the northern and portions of the central waters initially easterly on Sunday. Seas will be 2-3 ft through the period. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms is expected to become more widespread mid to late next week which could impact marine safety.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . MS SHORT TERM . MS LONG TERM . JME AVIATION . JME/MS MARINE . JME/MS


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
BFTN7 - 8656483 - Beaufort, NC 69 mi47 min NW 5.1 G 9.9 80°F 83°F1013 hPa
CLKN7 - Cape Lookout, NC 79 mi35 min WNW 12 G 13 80°F 1012.6 hPa (+0.4)

Wind History for Beaufort, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Pitt-Greenville Airport, NC5 mi40 minN 05.00 miFair with Haze79°F68°F70%1013.5 hPa
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC15 mi40 minN 010.00 miFair79°F68°F71%1012.9 hPa
Kinston, Kinston Regional Jetport at Stallings Field, NC22 mi39 minN 010.00 miFair79°F69°F74%1013.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPGV

Wind History from PGV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW4W4NW4W5----CalmW3W4W3CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
1 day agoN6NE4N7N6N5NE7NE7N7NE6N5N7CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3
2 days agoS3S5S3S7SW7SW9SW6W5SW6CalmSW7SW3S6E4N3CalmS5CalmCalmCalmN4N4N5N5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:15 AM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:14 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:54 AM EDT     1.99 feet High Tide
Sat -- 03:06 PM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:23 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:19 PM EDT     2.57 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.50.1-0.2-0.10.30.91.51.921.81.50.90.40-0.2-00.41.11.72.32.62.52.2

Tide / Current Tables for Spooner Creek, North Carolina
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Spooner Creek
Click for Map
Sat -- 04:13 AM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:15 AM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 05:59 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 09:48 AM EDT     1.23 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:04 PM EDT     -0.10 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 08:15 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 08:24 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:13 PM EDT     1.58 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.10.70.30-0.1-00.20.60.91.21.21.10.90.60.20-0.1-00.30.71.11.41.61.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (8,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.