Sunrise 6:07 AM   Sunset 7:56 PM Moonrise 2:32 AM   Moonset 1:55 PM

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AMZ231 Croatan And Roanoke Sounds- 1022 Am Edt Fri May 3 2024
Rest of today - W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming ne early this afternoon, then becoming E 10 to 15 kt late. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop late. Tonight - E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop after midnight. Sat - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Sat night - SE winds around 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers after midnight. Sun - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers, mainly in the morning. Sun night - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers. Mon night - SW winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue - SW winds around 15 kt, diminishing to around 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms. Tue night - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
winds and waves higher in and near tstms.

AMZ200 304 Pm Edt Fri May 3 2024
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles - Benign marine conditions continue this weekend into next week. A series of weak fronts will approach from the west and stall inland from the coast early next week, bringing a little better chance for showers and Thunderstorms.

FXUS62 KMHX 031948 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 348 PM EDT Fri May 3 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will continue offshore today and into the weekend.
A slow moving cold front will linger over the area Saturday before retreating northward on Sunday. Thereafter weak troughing across the Eastern Seaboard and warm moist southerly flow will lead to unsettled conditions through early next week. Drier conditions are expected by mid week, but will lead to increasing heat and humidity as ridging builds.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 300 PM Friday...Sea breeze is marching inland, moderating temps behind it. Highs have already been reached for the coast, and inland temps currently in the mid to upper 80s will increase by a few degrees before coming back down. Back door cold front is making its way through NE portions of the CWA, winds shifting to become easterly behind it. Isallobaric winds are trailing behind this cold front. Models seem to be underforecasting the wind gusts behind the back door cold front, with gusts of 20-20kts observed to our north. Strengthening of the pressure gradient behind the front as it moves south will likely bring wind gusts higher than what models are suggesting.
With some increased moisture convergence west of the Pamlico river as the sea breeze pushes inland and encounters the back door cold front, we could see isolated sprinkles in the area of convergence this evening. The backdoor front stalls out over the CWA tonight where it will linger through the first half of the weekend. Another round of fog and stratus possible overnight with winds expected to become light and var and ample moisture in the low levels. Fog will start to build east of hwy 17 as moisture advects from the east, and will spread westward through the night. Most dense, locally impactful fog is expected along and east of hwy 17. Stratus will will move in from the NE behind the back door cold front overnight. Muggy lows in the low to mid 60s.



SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/
As of 300 PM Friday...Saturday will start off cloudy, low cloud cover slowly rising with the help of daytime heating. Weak cold front will remain over ENC with east/southeasterly flow expected most of the day. Stable onshore flow will limit instability development, and with drier air holding on across the area for most of the day, it is looking to be a mostly dry day with the exception of the coastal plain where some isolated shower/thunderstorm development may occur. Temperatures will remain above normal but a bit cooler than Friday with highs ranging from the upper 70s to low 80s (cooler along the coast with the onshore flow).

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
As 315 AM Fri...A weak cold front will dip southward into the Carolinas this weekend with some scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. Unsettled weather will continue for the first half of next week as weak troughing lingers over the East Coast and warm moist southerly flow develops. By mid next week drier conditions will return but will be accompanied by an increase in heat and humidity.

Sunday...Winds will veer to the south Sunday as the front retreats to the north. However this will bring better moisture/instability to the area and allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop Sunday afternoon with the most widespread rain across the coastal plain. Similar temps expected with highs in the 70s to low 80s.

Monday and Tuesday...High pressure will rebuild well offshore early next week while weak troughing remains along the Eastern Seaboard. With a moist and unstable airmass in place, diurnally enhanced showers and thunderstorms will develop with the best chances again over the coastal plain. Highs will reach the upper 70s to low 80s again Monday with increasing low level thicknesses boosting Tuesday's highs into the low to mid 80s.

Wednesday and Thursday...Drier conditions are expected mid week as upper level riding builds back over the Southeast. However, increasing low level thicknesses and continued southerly flow will lead to hot and humid conditions will afternoon highs reaching the upper 80s to low 90s inland, and the low to mid 80s closer to the coast. Some isolated airmass showers and thunderstorms are also possible each afternoon.

AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
SHORT TERM /through Friday Night/...
As of 330 PM Friday...VFR through the rest of the day with light winds, predominantly onshore this afternoon behind the seabreeze in the S and Eerly for Nern zones behind a dry backdoor cold front sinking S. FEW-SCT diurnal CU field around FL060 this afternoon ahead of the seabreeze and front. Another round of subVFR flight cats is expected tonight with potential for a fog/stratus event due to moist low levels, light and variable to calm winds, and the front which will stall over the area tonight. Current expectation is for fog to initiate along the coast, where moisture is the most impressive, and progress inland through the night. IFR visibilities are possible after 6Z for EWN and OAJ where fog will have the most residence time.
We are also expecting low stratus to spread through much of the region tonight, teetering between MVFR and IFR levels. The most aggressive guidance suggests ceilings of 300ft, but have limited ceilings to 700ft for EWN and OAJ, with PGV and OAJ a bit higher at 900-1000ft. Fog will dissipate by 13Z, but sub-VFR ceilings will linger into the afternoon.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Generally VFR conditions are expected through early next week, however increasingly unsettled conditions could lead to moments of sub-VFR conditions each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
SHORT TERM /through Fri/...
As of 340 PM Friday...MWS has been issued for Albemarle/Croatan/Roanoke sounds and the Alligator River, along with coastal waters from Duck to Oregon Inlet this evening for a quick wind shift from westerly to easterly and gusty conditions behind a back door cold front. Potential exists for infrequent gusts of 30kts between 5-8pm today for the Albemarle sound, as easterly flow results in funneling. As we get into tonight gusts will lessen to 10-15kts behind the front. Winds will remain east/southeasterly tomorrow, sustained 10 kts gusting to 15 kts. Seas are calm today, starting to build from the north overnight into Saturday. By Saturday evening, waves will be 2-4ft for coastal waters, highest north and east of Hatteras.

Fog threat persists into the weekend for coastal waters, sounds, and rivers once again.

LONG TERM /Saturday through Tuesday/...
As of 315 AM Fri...Decent boating conditions are expected this weekend with slightly worsening conditions developing early next week.

Winds will come around to the south of Sunday at 5-15 kts. SW winds then develop Monday through most of next week with winds increasing to 10-20 kts. Seas will be generally 2-4 ft through Monday and then increase to 3-5 ft Tuesday.

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

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Davis Slough
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Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:27 AM EDT     0.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 11:08 AM EDT     0.05 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 05:01 PM EDT     0.94 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Davis Slough, North Carolina, Tide feet

Oregon Inlet Channel
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Fri -- 03:32 AM EDT     Moonrise
Fri -- 04:08 AM EDT     1.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:07 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:35 AM EDT     0.08 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 02:54 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:43 PM EDT     1.34 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:08 PM EDT     0.04 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Oregon Inlet Channel, North Carolina, Tide feet

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