Monday, December9, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Jamesville, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:57PM Monday December 9, 2019 7:48 PM EST (00:48 UTC) Moonrise 3:26PMMoonset 4:19AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 619 Pm Est Mon Dec 9 2019
Tonight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Patchy fog this evening.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W after midnight. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers in the evening, then showers likely after midnight.
Wed..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu..NE winds around 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Thu night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming se. Waves a moderate chop, diminishing to light chop. A chance of rain, then rain likely.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. Rain likely, then a chance of rain.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Jamesville, NC
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location: 35.76, -76.9     debug


Area Discussion for - Newport/Morehead City, NC
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FXUS62 KMHX 092314 AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 614 PM EST Mon Dec 9 2019

SYNOPSIS. A strong cold front will move through Tuesday night and early Wednesday. High pressure will build north of the area through late next week, with another system likely impacting the area late week into the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/. As of 610 PM Monday . Fcst looks good with bulk of shra expected to remain off the coast tonight. Will cont to monitor threat for sea fog with areas near OBX having best potential.

Prev disc . Mainly dry and mild for tonight except for a continuing very low end shower threat along the OBX. The atmospheric column will remain very moist resulting in abundant mainly mid and high level cloud cover. Low level mixing will preclude widespread dense fog like last night, but sea fog could occur adjacent to the Pamlico Sound and Outer Banks. Good low level WAA and mixing, will produce temps well above normal tonight with lows occurring in the evening then temps will become steady or slightly rise late. Expecting lows only in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/. As of 320 PM Monday . Mostly dry weather and very warm temps are expected Tue. In fact could see some record highs if sufficient insolation can occur through the expected mostly cloudy skies. Will trend the forecast toward the warmer guidance with highs nearing the 80 degree mark, which makes sense given fcst low lvl thicknesses soaring to aoa 1380M. (see climate section below). Could see some showers creep in toward evening coastal plain and Outer Banks.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 230 PM Mon . Periods of unsettled weather expected through much of the long term period, with roller coaster temps as a progressive/amplified active weather pattern is expected.

Tuesday night through Wednesday . A strong cold front approaches the area, resulting in widespread shower activity through Wednesday morning. The best chances for rain will be along the coastal plains initially, then spread eastward through the overnight hours and Wednesday morning. There could be some thunder embedded in the showers along the immediate coast where some instability will reside, mainly Downeast Carteret through the OBX. The frontal boundary will push through the area by Wed morning, then conditions will dry during the afternoon hours from west to east. Temps will swing to the other side of climo, and only be in the upper 40s N to low/mid 50s S for highs.

Wednesday night through Thursday . Strong high pressure will build in from the north with much cooler and drier air Wed night and Thursday with highs Thu only in the 40s in most locations. Widespread lows near or below freezing Thursday morning.

Friday through Monday . Rain chances inc Fri through Sat as deep srly flow increases with digging long wave trough across the lower MS River Valley, which will spur several areas of low pressure along the eastern seaboard. Have maintained likely pops centered on Fri night into Sat as models converging on this period being wettest. Widespread moderate to heavy rain will be possible. Depending on exact track of said low pressure areas, there could be potential for strong to even severe storms if storm tracks are further inland. Drier conditions with near normal temps could arrive Sunday and Monday.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. Short Term /through Tuesday/ . As of 610 PM Mon . Fcst tricky with plenty of low lvl moisture which would favor fog/st . however decent mixing and good amount of mid/high clouds expected. For now will cont trend of mainly VFR thru period . did add a bit of MVFR this evening per several high res mdls. If winds decouple or clouds thin out fog/st could develop quickly. Dry weather will cont Tue with sct clouds . SW winds wl be gusty from mid to late morn on.

Long Term /Tue night through Sat/ . As of 4 AM Mon . Unsettled weather is expected Tue night through early Wednesday with gusty winds, scattered showers and periods of sub-VFR conditions likely. Dry weather returns second half of Wed through Thu. Increasing moisture Friday will lead to the development of rain with the potential for sub VFR ceilings and vsbys.

MARINE. Short Term /Tonight and Tuesday/ . As of 610 PM Monday . No changes with cont rough seas for cstl wtrs.

Prev disc . Continue the SCA's. Southerly flow 15-20 kt will continue through Tue, except for the outer central waters where the flow will be 20-25 kt with gusts to around 30 kt. Seas are very high late today, 8-12 ft, but will subside slightly overnight to 6 to 9 ft and to 5 to 8 ft Tue.

Long Term /Tuesday night through Saturday/ . As of 245 AM Mon . No changes to previous thinking with an active weather pattern expected through the end of the week which will result in hazardous boating conditions with strong winds and elevated seas AOA 6 ft through the period. Winds will shift N 15-25 kt with higher gusts behind cold front Wed into Thur with large dangerous seas continuing above 6 ft through at least Sat as yet another storm system moves through the waters Fri night and Sat.

CLIMATE. Record High temps for 12/10 Tuesday

LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 79/2007 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 73/1986 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 79/2007 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 73/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 78/2007 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 79/2007 (KNCA ASOS)

MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. NC . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST Friday for AMZ150-152-154- 156-158.

SYNOPSIS . MHX NEAR TERM . RF/JME SHORT TERM . JME LONG TERM . TL/BM AVIATION . RF/TL MARINE . RF/JME/TL/BM CLIMATE . MHX


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 68 mi187 min SSW 12 G 13 64°F 1015.2 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 70 mi49 min 54°F5 ft
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 72 mi157 min 57°F

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Washington, Warren Field Airport, NC15 mi74 minS 410.00 miFair63°F59°F91%1016.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOCW

Wind History from OCW (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN3NE4CalmNW3CalmCalmW3W6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3CalmS4S3S4S3S3S3S4
1 day agoNE5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN5N3NE8NE6NE7NE8E5NE5CalmCalmN6N5N4
2 days agoCalmS3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4N8N11NE9N8N13NE10
G15
N7NE8N10NE6NE5NE4NE5

Tide / Current Tables for Core Creek Bridge, North Carolina
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Core Creek Bridge
Click for Map
Mon -- 12:16 AM EST     0.11 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 04:16 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 06:26 AM EST     2.22 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:02 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 01:07 PM EST     0.20 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:26 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:55 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 06:41 PM EST     1.89 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.511.522.22.221.61.10.70.30.20.30.61.11.51.81.91.71.40.90.5

Tide / Current Tables for Ocracoke, Ocracoke Island, North Carolina (2)
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Ocracoke
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:14 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 05:24 AM EST     1.13 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:00 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 12:13 PM EST     0.10 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 03:23 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 05:39 PM EST     0.96 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.20.50.811.11.110.80.60.40.20.10.10.30.50.80.910.90.70.50.30.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Newport/Morehead City, NC (19,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Morehead City, NC
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.