Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Lockwood, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:49PM Thursday October 1, 2020 2:43 PM PDT (21:43 UTC) Moonrise 6:12PMMoonset 5:45AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ565 Coastal Waters From Point Pinos To Point Piedras Blancas California Out To 10 Nm- 152 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 1 2020
.small craft advisory in effect through Friday evening...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 17 seconds, increasing to 5 to 7 ft at 16 seconds after midnight. SWell sw around 2 ft. Hazy.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 15 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Hazy.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 13 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 15 seconds. Hazy.
Sat..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. NW swell 3 to 4 ft at 14 seconds and sw around 2 ft at 14 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. Mixed swell W 3 to 5 ft at 15 seconds and S 2 to 3 ft at 17 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. Mixed swell W 4 to 5 ft at 14 seconds and S 3 to 5 ft at 17 seconds.
Sun night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 to 2 ft. Mixed swell W 3 to 5 ft at 13 seconds and S 4 to 5 ft at 17 seconds.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and S 4 to 5 ft.
Tue..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 1 ft. Mixed swell nw 3 to 4 ft and S 3 to 5 ft.
PZZ500 152 Pm Pdt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Northerly winds will continue Thursday into Friday over a mixed and generally light swell. Locally stronger winds will occur over the near shore waters south of point sur. By Friday night and Saturday northwest winds will increase as high pressure over land begins to break down. Some southerly swells may approach later this weekend as energy from hurricane marie propagates northward.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Lockwood, CA
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location: 35.92, -121.73     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 012055 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 155 PM PDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. Very warm to hot and dry conditions will persist over the region through Friday. This will result in an increase in Heat Risks across interior locations as well as critical fire weather conditions over the higher terrain, especially where ongoing fires continue. A region-wide cooling trend is then expected for this upcoming weekend.

DISCUSSION. as of 01:55 PM PDT Thursday . Visible Satellite imagery depicts an unfortunate image of the smoke canopy extending from the coast all the way up to the Sierra. The (somewhat) good news is that unlike the previous smoke canopy that brought on orange and red skies, this canopy is much less pronounced. Nonetheless, its effects have already been observed in interior locations below 1000 feet where temps have not increased as quickly as they otherwise would have. However, the thermal trough is still about as strong as progged, so higher-terrain locations (especially those just above the smoke canopy) are still seeing temps as expected and even areas where temps may not make it to their original max temps will still end the day well above-average.

Winds are expected to once again pick up across much of the interior North and East Bay Mountains, Santa Cruz Mountains along with locations in the Santa Lucia Mountains in Monterey County. The greatest fire weather concerns will not only be these overnight winds but also the poor temperature and humidity recoveries, as the local WRF has continually progged RH values in the teens (with some isolated higher-terrain locations showing signatures in the 10-13% range). The active Glass Fire will also not be seeing much of an overnight humidity recovery either, given the near nonexistent marine layer. The added caveat of the smoke canopy will also act as a radiational blanket across much of the CWA, so expecting overnight temperatures will not recover much. As such, are progging min temps in the 60s across most of the interior with high-terrain locations only making it down to the 70s. The thermal low is also not expected to weaken much overnight and into tomorrow, so the added vertical mixing may make some isolated interior locations only drop into the low 80s. With all of this in mind, have extended the Heat Advisory through 8PM Friday and the Red Flag Warning out to 6AM Saturday. Please see the Fire Weather Discussion below for additional details.

Mid-range guidance is in high agreement that the upper-level ridge will break apart this weekend, which will finally allow for 591dm 500hPa heights to move out of our CWA. This will translate to less of a marine layer compression and for greater onshore flow, which will help to clear some of this smoke away from the immediate coast. The break up will also allow for the interior to experience non-smoke-enhanced temperature relief Saturday and especially into Sunday, with locations like LIvermore and San Jose finally breaking their 90+ F streaks. Nevertheless, smoky skies may not fully recover across most of Central and Northern until later next week.

GEFS and ECMWF ENS have started to show greater agreement that as this upper-level ridge becomes more zonal, it may allow for the remnants of tropical cyclone Marie to move towards the Central Coast. Currently the latest ECMWF takes a more robust approach for Marie, bringing a stronger mid-level low closer to our CWA than does the GFS, which keeps it further out in the Pacific. In either case, we are still over 150 hours out, so this is low-confidence, at best. Nonetheless, the possibility is there that we may see some moisture make its way into our CWA during the middle/second- half of next week. How much of that moisture (if any) ends up moving in to the Central Coast and/or the Bay Area is largely a wishy-washy outlook right now. But as we approach Sunday and the early part of next week, will see both an increase in confidence and also much more quantitative precipitation measures for what we may expect should these runs verify.

AVIATION. as of 10:55 AM PDT Thursday . For the 18z TAFs. Concerns today will all be smoke related. ASOS are reporting cloud layers but its actually smoke. Vsby will be impacted mainly in the 3-6 sm range for smoke and haze. Winds to remain light. Slant range vsby to continue to impact SFO approach.

Vicinity of KSFO . Smoke layers to impact vsby the rest of this afternoon and evening. No clouds forecast, just smoke layers. Winds to remain light. Some low level wind shear with gusty north winds aloft.

SFO Bridge Approach . Possible slant-range vis issues with smoke and haze. Otherwise, similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . Only impacts will be smoke and haze with vsby 4-6sm. Winds to remain light.

CLIMATE. Here are record high temperatures for Thursday and Friday .

. THURSDAY FRIDAY SANTA ROSA . 102 in 1980 . 105 in 1980 KENTFIELD . 97 in 2012 . 100 in 2012 NAPA . 106 in 1980 . 102 in 1980 RICHMOND . 99 in 1980 . 100 in 1980 LIVERMORE . 102 in 1952 . 106 in 1980 SAN FRANCISCO . 97 in 1980 . 96 in 1980 SF AIRPORT . 97 in 1980 . 96 in 1980 REDWOOD CITY . 103 in 1980 . 104 in 1980 HALF MOON BAY . 83 in 2014 . 88 in 1995 OAKLAND DOWNTOWN . 103 in 1980 . 103 in 1980 SAN JOSE . 97 in 1980 . 96 in 2012 GILROY . 104 in 2001 . 107 in 1980 SANTA CRUZ . 102 in 1965 . 102 in 1980 SALINAS . 105 in 1980 . 103 in 1980 KING CITY . 109 in 1980 . 107 in 1980

FIRE WEATHER. as of 10:04 AM PDT Thursday . All current Red Flag Warnings will be extended through 6 am Saturday morning for all hills above 1000 feet except in San Benito county. Very hot and dry conditions regionwide with humidity values in the teens. Highs in the 90s to lower 100s today. Smoke is extensive across the region and likely to persist into Friday. Smoke layer will keep temps a few degrees cooler than if skies were clear as well as bringing some stability to the fire behavior.

Northerly winds 10 to 20 mph in the hills combined with ongoing low humidity will keep fire weather conditions critical at least the next 1-2 days.

Glass Fire: Red Flag Warning 1 pm Thursday through Saturday 6 am. Northerly winds this morning will turn more to the Northwest Thursday afternoon and evening when gusts 25-30 mph likely. These will combine with the very low humidity values under 20% with temps in the 90s to lower 100s. Winds veer back to the North overnight with continued little or no humidity recovery. No significant wx changes for Friday with Red Flag continuing as persistent hot, dry, breezy wx continues. Red Flag now extended through the overnight hours of Friday through 6 am Saturday morning. Models showing a final burst of winds Friday night while the hot/dry wx continues. Some cooling finally arrives Saturday but will need to watch for gusty seabreeze winds Saturday afternoon moving up the Napa Valley.

Dolan Fire: Red Flag Warning through 6 am Saturday. Very hot and dry conditions in the Los Padres NF with temps 90s to lower 100s. Humidity values to remain single digits and teens with essentially no night time recovery. Models continue to show 925 mb winds around 20 mph with some peak speeds to 30 mph to impact the higher ridges of the Dolan Fire. The next 2 days should offer a good wind/heat test for containment lines. Relief on Saturday will be slow as the marine layer slowly returns to the coast but looks like continued breezy and dry in the hills Saturday.

MARINE. as of 10:37 AM PDT Thursday . Light to moderate northwest winds will persist as high pressure remains over the eastern Pacific. Locally breezy afternoon and evening conditions expected along the immediate coast and prominent points and headlands. The strongest winds are forecast along the Big Sur Coast south of Point Sur. Mixed seas will continue with a moderate northwest swell and a longer period light southerly swell. Expect southerly swell to build from south to north at the end of the week and into the weekend as a result of Hurricane Marie.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. Heat Advisory . CAZ006-506>508-510>513-516>518-528 Red Flag Warning . CAZ507-511-512-517 SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA . Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm



PUBLIC FORECAST: Diaz/RGass AVIATION: RWW MARINE: RWW FIRE WEATHER: RWW

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
46028 - CAPE SAN MARTIN - 55NM West Northwest of Morro Bay, CA 14 mi44 min NW 7.8 G 9.7 61°F 1013.7 hPa (-1.1)59°F
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 35 mi48 min 58°F5 ft
MEYC1 48 mi68 min 64°F 61°F1014.6 hPa

Wind History for Monterey, CA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Monterey Regional Airport, CA47 mi50 minNNW 36.00 miOvercast with Haze0°F0°F%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMRY

Wind History from MRY (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN6N7--NW3CalmCalmCalmSE3CalmSE4CalmSE3SE7SE4E5SE6SE5CalmE3CalmCalmNW4NW5N3
1 day agoN5N6N7NW3NE3N3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE3E4SE5SE4E3Calm3NW5NW4NW45
2 days ago554N5N3NE3E3E3E3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSE4SE3SE3CalmCalmN5N6NE4N7

Tide / Current Tables for San Simeon, California
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San Simeon
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:34 AM PDT     0.47 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:42 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:00 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:44 AM PDT     5.10 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM PDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 04:47 PM PDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:47 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:09 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 10:47 PM PDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.43.42.21.20.60.51.123.24.34.95.14.73.82.81.81.111.32.23.24.24.95

Tide / Current Tables for Carmel Cove, Carmel Bay, California
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Carmel Cove
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:49 AM PDT     0.46 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:45 AM PDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:03 AM PDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:00 AM PDT     5.05 feet High Tide
Thu -- 02:06 PM PDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 05:02 PM PDT     0.93 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 06:50 PM PDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:12 PM PDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:03 PM PDT     5.00 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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4.63.62.51.40.70.50.91.72.944.854.84321.20.91.21.92.93.94.75

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Ground Weather Radar Station San Francisco Bay Area, CA
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