Friday, July10, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hamilton, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:01AMSunset 8:28PM Friday July 10, 2020 3:47 AM EDT (07:47 UTC) Moonrise 11:12PMMoonset 10:12AM Illumination 76% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 20 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ136 Pamlico And Pungo Rivers- 313 Am Edt Fri Jul 10 2020
Today..W winds 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms late.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sat night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. Showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves light chop, increasing to a moderate chop in the afternoon. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the morning, then a chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves a moderate chop. A chance of showers and tstms.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves light chop. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hamilton, NC
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location: 36, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 100545 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 145 AM EDT Fri Jul 10 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical Storm Fay off the Carolina coast this evening will lift north/northeast along the Mid Atlantic coast overnight. The system will pull away from the area during the day on Friday. A frontal boundary will push across most of the area on Saturday before dissipating along the coast Saturday night. Hot and humid conditions are expect to continue through much of next week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 710 PM EDT Thursday .

We now have Tropical Storm Fay off the Carolina coast. The latest NHC forecast has the center lifting N/NE overnight. The current consensus is that the center is most likely to stay just to our east, however Ocean City is in the cone of uncertainty. After collaboration with NHC and surrounding offices, no tropical headlines are currently in effect as the strongest winds are forecast to be on the eastern side of this storm. Regardless of the exact track of the center, our local messaging remains the same. Precip is expected to intensify overnight across the MD/VA eastern shore. Precip amounts of anywhere from 1" - 4" across the Delmarva expected. With those amounts combined with heavy rain over the last week, Flash Flood Watch in effect beginning at midnight tonight through Noon tomorrow. Outside of the eastern shore, scattered showers and an isolated thunderstorm with chances decreasing as you head further inland. Expect overnight lows similar to last night in the low to mid 70s.

For Friday, Fay will continue to move NE away from the area. Once the center is north of the Delmarva, the rain threat should quickly diminish. The Models all show good subsidence in the wake of the low. This should allow for most areas to see lots of sunshine and few showers. Have left slight chance pops for the afternoon, but expect most areas should be dry. With the sunshine and little showers, the temperatures should be warmer in the lower 90s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 500 PM EDT Thursday .

The models are in good agreement with a shortwave trough swinging a cold front across the mountains Friday night and through the forecast area on Saturday. With the front in the mountains still Friday night, did hold on to some slight chance pops across the Piedmont from the daytime heating and what might move off the mountains but with little forcing after that have let the chances for rain dissipate after Midnight. Have kept overnight lows up in the low to mid 70s still with the front still to the west. The pops on Saturday could be challenging and based upon how the front moves across the area. The 12z model cycle showed the front near the I-95 corridor around 18z and focused the convection more for eastern sections of the forecast area. Could still see some showers west of I-95, but that area should see the frontal passage during the morning when chances for convection are usually less. Have kept temps in the low to mid 90s ahead of the front and with the mid 70s dewpoints could see heat index values in the low 100s. Just below advisory levels.

The front looks like it will dissipate over eastern parts of the area saturday night with the chances of rain diminishing after midnight. With there being nearly no push of cool air behind the front have not dropped overnight lows much with maybe some upper 60 degree readings possible in the VA Piedmont, but the rest remain in the low to mid 70s.

On Sunday, expect another warm day with highs in the lower 90s. The chances for rain look low as the area is between systems with the next upper level trough and surface cold front still across the Ohio valley. The GFS is quickest to bring the next system in and arrives more Sunday night while the NAM and ECMWF don't bring it in until Monday. At this point prefer the slower solution and kept the area mainly dry, but with temps in the 90s, can't rule out a pop up shower or two, especially in the Piedmont counties.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 450 PM EDT Thursday .

Overall the operational models are still in decent agreement with a Eastern US Trough being the dominant weather feature in the extended period, but the strength of the trough and differs. Southerly flow sets up Monday ahead of a weak cold front which slowly approaches from the west and eventually pushes offshore Tue morning. Kept a blended between the synoptic models increasing POP especially late Mon morning and through the afternoon. POPs should decrease from west to east monday evening and overnight into Tue morning.

POPs lessen mid week and have removed all POPs for Wed. There is a slight chance of showers early over MD on Thu and then a slight chance of showers and storms over the piedmont Thu afternoon ahead of the next front. POPS increase to chance from west to east Thu evening as a weak cold front tries to push through.

For temperatures . next week after a cooler day Monday things warm up and will be seasonably warm. Have Bumped up readings into the mid 90s Wed and Thu. Lows in the low to mid 70s.

AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 140 AM EDT Friday .

Shwr bands assctd with TS Fay cont to rotate west across sern VA and nern NC at 06Z while the main slug of rain now overspreading the lwr Md ern shore. Per current radar trends, added TEMPO group for a SHRA at ORF/PHF and VCSH at ECG along with SCT-BKN MVFR CIGS btwn 1-3K FT. Rain overspreads SBY and becomes hvy at times thru 12Z. Thunder not an immediated threat attm, but will include VCTS at SBY closer to 12Z as that is the target time the models are pointing to. Just SCT clouds at RIC as they are to far west to have any affects from Fay. NNE winds at 10 kts or less, however gusts up to 25 kts psbl in any shwr along the coast.

Conditions begin to improve by 18Z as TS Fay moves north of the local area. Subsidence behind the departing tropical systm results in only SCT CU this aftrn except at SBY where MVFR CIGS hang on thru most of this forecast period.

OUTLOOK . VFR conditions expected thru Mon, but sct diurnal convection results in periods of MVFR CIGS/VSBYS.

MARINE. As of 405 PM EDT Thursday .

Afternoon surface analysis shows deepening ~1008mb low pressure off the NC coast with high pressure to the east/well offshore. Winds are out of the east at 15-20 knots with gusts 20-25 knots across the bay, lower James, Currituck sound, and southern coastal waters. Seas are building to 4-6 ft S and 3-4 ft N. Waves are on the increase in the southern bay at 1-3 ft.

Low pressure off of Wilmington, NC this morning has lost definition this afternoon as a new area of low pressure attempts to form under robust convection east of Cape Hatteras. The NOAA Hurricane Hunter C130 is investigating this area of low pressure for tropical development and has recently found some westerly winds within the circulation, suggesting a closed low has formed. Model guidance shows this low being pulled northward and potentially NNW for a period this evening and tonight as the low pressure consolidates with the remnants of the older surface low. Still think the mean motion of the low will be northward (20-30nmi offshore) overnight with some gradual deepening expected. The low is forecast to be near/east of the mouth of the bay after midnight tonight and moving northward along/off the Atlantic coast of the eastern shore by sunrise. The low will be north of our waters mid to late afternoon on Friday. Current forecast has winds 20-25 knots with gusts 30 knots offshore with direction transitioning from E-NE-N-NW-W based on the position of the low. Greatest potential for gusts aoa 35 knots will exist across the coastal waters north of Parramore Island late tonight into early Friday. 15-20 knots will prevail in the bay through this evening with some increase late tonight to 20-25 knots with gusts to 30 knots (especially our northern bay zones) as the low makes its closest approach. Waves build to 3-4 ft tonight in the bay. 4-6 ft seas over the southern coastal waters will begin to decrease by sunrise Friday. Farther north, seas increase to 5-8 ft tonight and will be slow to subside to 4-5 ft by late Friday afternoon.

Left headlines largely unchanged for the overnight period with SCAs in effect for all waters except the upper James, York, and Rappahannock rivers. SCAs end from south to north into Friday afternoon. Northern coastal waters may need to be extended a few hours depending on how seas behave.

Behind the departing low pressure, southerly flow will quickly resume ahead of an approaching trough and cold front on Saturday. The front looks to cross the waters Saturday evening into the overnight.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. Have issued a Coastal Flood Statement for the bayside of the VA Eastern Shore, as water levels are expected to crest around minor flood thresholds at Bayford early Fri AM. There is a chc that water levels approach minor flood thresholds at Lewisetta/Windmill Pt. However, confidence in this is not as high, so will keep the forecast a tenth or two below minor attm. Elsewhere, water levels are expected to remain at least a few tenths below minor flood thresholds.

High risk of rip currents continues through this evening for Virginia Beach and the NE NC beaches. Went with a high risk of rip currents for the nrn beaches on Friday, with a moderate risk for VA Beach/nrn Outer Banks.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for MDZ021>025. NC . None. VA . Flash Flood Watch until noon EDT today for VAZ099. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ632- 634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630- 631-650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT this morning for ANZ638.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/MPR NEAR TERM . CMF/ESS SHORT TERM . ESS LONG TERM . JAO AVIATION . MPR MARINE . RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 68 mi47 min NNW 5.1 G 8 76°F 82°F1008.9 hPa (-1.6)
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 72 mi47 min NNW 15 G 19 76°F 1008.1 hPa (-0.5)

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ahoskie, Tri-County Airport, NC21 mi52 minNW 310.00 miFair72°F71°F100%1011.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASJ

Wind History from ASJ (wind in knots)
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1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3E5E3NE6NE6NE7
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2 days agoS3CalmCalmCalmCalmSE3S6S6SE5SE6SE9SE9S10
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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:58 AM EDT     3.86 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:56 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:13 AM EDT     0.31 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 03:29 PM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 09:31 PM EDT     0.60 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.33.13.73.93.632.21.30.60.30.40.91.72.63.23.63.63.22.51.71.10.70.61

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Fri -- 02:12 AM EDT     3.08 feet High Tide
Fri -- 05:55 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 08:41 AM EDT     0.25 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 11:09 AM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 02:43 PM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Fri -- 08:27 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 08:59 PM EDT     0.50 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.32.83.132.621.30.70.30.30.61.11.82.52.82.92.72.21.61.10.60.50.71.1

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (3,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.