Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:55 PM Moonrise 2:05 AM   Moonset 12:46 PM

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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon. Fri night - SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.Sat - W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers. Sat night - N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening. Sun - N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.Sun night - SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft. Mon - S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.

AMZ100 303 Pm Edt Thu May 2 2024
Synopsis for eastern north carolina coastal waters - High pressure builds in for a couple of days before yet another cold front impacts the area over the weekend bringing slight chances for showers, but should remain mainly west of enc.

FXUS61 KAKQ 021903 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303 PM EDT Thu May 2 2024

SYNOPSIS
A backdoor cold front pushes into the Maryland eastern shore late tonight, then inland across the remainder of the area on Friday, leading to much cooler conditions at the coast. Rain chances return Friday evening through Sunday as a series of disturbances impact the region. Summerlike conditions come to the area by the middle of next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

Very quiet tonight with high pressure overhead.
Guidance suggests that the front over southern New York and PA will move across the MD eastern shore late tonight allowing winds to back to the NE with an increase in clouds late. But otherwise this front will be of little consequence tonight. Do not think fog will be an issue over land tonight given that we had a day of full sunshine today likely allowing any excessive moisture to burn off. Lows will be in the mid-upper 50s across the MD eastern shore and lower 60s elsewhere.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

The backdoor front will continue to move SW across the region on Friday. Models have good timing on the front, reaching the VA eastern shore and SE VA Friday morning, the RIC metro around lunch time, then to the southern Piedmont of VA by late afternoon.
Latest CAMs show some pop up showers for areas mainly west of I-95 as the front moves SW. Have therefore included slight chance PoPs for the afternoon in that same general region. Could not completely rule out thunder as the HRRR mean SBCAPE shows 500-1000 J/KG. There will be quite a gradient of temperatures across the area, with Ocean City likely staying in the 50s through the day, while areas in the southern Virginia Piedmont will reach upper 80s for highs. The temperature will likely remain steady or even fall slightly once the front passes your location tomorrow.

Improved moisture return sets up for Friday night and continues into Saturday. Best moisture stays mainly over the Piedmont, and will also be helped by overrunning over top the low level wedge. The better moisture and lift moves in on Saturday as the 850mb winds increase and have kept likely PoPs over the Piedmont, tapering to low chance at the coast. Even at the coast though, it will not be terribly pleasant in the morning with onshore flow, low clouds and the potential for drizzle into Saturday morning. Have generally undercut the NBM highs for Saturday, especially across the far NW. Highs will range from the mid 60s (or possibly even lower) in the NW piedmont counties, to lower 80s across the far south where some afternoon sunshine is possible.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 230 PM EDT Thursday...

The backdoor front will attempt to move back north on Sunday as the Ohio valley system approaches from the west. Showers may be more widespread on Sunday due to a weak disturbance aloft lowering heights across the region. Best moisture and still expected along/west of I-95. As such, have continued with likely/categorical PoPs over the west on Sunday, tapering to chance PoPs at the coast.
Highs expected to be warmer than Saturday in the mid 70s to lower 80s, warmest SE VA/NC NC.

By Monday, the warm front will be well north of the area. However, the system over the Ohio Valley will be moving through during the day. Expect another round of showers/storms mainly during Monday afternoon into Monday evening as a stronger upper disturbance moves through in the W-NW flow aloft. Slightly more instability on Monday vs Sunday so more thunderstorms are expected.

We get into an almost summertime pattern by Tuesday as the ridge aloft builds overhead with afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms each day being triggered by the lee side trough. The GFS and ECMWF both suggest the ridge breaks down slightly by Wed/Thu with stronger 500mb flow of up to 50 kt by Wed afternoon. Along with this, those models suggest weak short waves (likely of mesoscale origin from convection over the Ohio Valley and central plains)
moving through the area. Although we are talking about days 6 and 7, the relatively strong upper flow combined with relative steep mid level lapse rates of up to 7 C/km would suggest the possibility of severe weather. In fact, the CSU Machine Learning Probabilities suggest a slight risk for severe weather on Wednesday and again on Thursday. We have plenty of time to monitor this, but the area may become a little more active by the end of next week.

AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
As of 130 PM Thursday...

VFR conditions with light winds expected through tomorrow morning. A backdoor cold front will move into the Maryland Eastern Shore late tonight, allowing winds to turn NE by Fri morning. This front will continue to slowly move SW on Friday, perhaps reaching the other terminals by 18z. Some forecast guidance suggest that SBY may see MVFR cigs after 15z tomorrow behind the front and have included that in the terminal fcst.

Outlook...Sub-VFR conditions expected at times through through the weekend and even into early next week due to an unsettled weather pattern through Monday with chances for rain/storms each day. A summerlike pattern returns by Tuesday with chances for storms each afternoon/evening.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- Small craft advisories have been issued for the Chesapeake Bay Friday behind a backdoor cold front.

Benign conditions on the marine front this afternoon with winds having recently shifted to the S/SSE. Speeds are 15 kt or less. Very shallow marine fog has also been noted on the ocean, mainly N of the Cape Charles. Have a dense fog advisory for these zones through 4 PM this afternoon. Otherwise, light winds are expected through Friday morning with a light pressure gradient across the area. E/NE winds increase abruptly later Friday morning as a backdoor cold front moves from NE to SW through the waters. Winds increase to 15-20 kt with gusts to around 25 kt. A brief period of gusts to 30 kt are possible right behind the front early Fri aftn. The highest confidence in meeting small craft criteria is in the southern bay, though am rather confident the entirety of the bay should approach criteria. Have therefore issued a small craft advisory for these areas from Fri morning/aftn into Fri night. The bay N of New Point Comfort starts at 10 AM Fri, with the lower bay, mouth of the bay, and lower James starting at 1 PM Fri. On the ocean, wind gusts and wave heights on average should stay below 25 kt and 5 ft, respectively. Should note that onshore flow conditions tend to elevate seas a bit higher than guidance, so will monitor this over the next 12-24 hrs. As of now, seas are forecast to increase to 3-4 ft. The best chance of 5 ft seas would be N of Cape Charles.
Easterly winds subside some Sat morning, but will remain around ~15 kt. Wind speeds tick up again Sat aftn with another chance at SCA conditions. Seas remain 3-4 ft with waves 2-3 ft in the bay/rivers/sound.

The front lifts back N on Sunday, shifting winds to the S/SSE. SSW winds return for Monday through the middle of next week (but remain sub-SCA).

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ630-631.
Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM Friday to 1 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ632-634-638.
Dense Fog Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ650- 652-654.

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Currituck Beach Light
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Thu -- 02:35 AM EDT     3.60 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:03 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:06 AM EDT     0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:13 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:52 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:29 PM EDT     0.35 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina, Tide feet

Duck Pier
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Thu -- 02:35 AM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Thu -- 03:02 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 09:02 AM EDT     0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 01:42 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 03:13 PM EDT     3.24 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 09:25 PM EDT     0.30 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION

Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2), Tide feet

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