Thursday, June4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hertford, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:46AMSunset 8:20PM Thursday June 4, 2020 10:54 PM EDT (02:54 UTC) Moonrise 6:16PMMoonset 3:57AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ230 Albemarle Sound- 917 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Overnight..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Fri..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming S 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms, mainly in the evening.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..NE winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming E 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tue..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming s. Waves 1 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 944 Pm Edt Thu Jun 4 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Southwest winds will prevail the remainder of this week as high pressure holds offshore. A cold front drops into the area Sunday, as high pressure builds in from the north early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hertford, NC
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location: 36.18, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 050016 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 816 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure remains centered off the southeast coast through Saturday. A cold front crosses the region Saturday night. High pressure builds into the area from the north early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 715 PM EDT Thursday .

Latest analysis indicates high pressure at the sfc and aloft centered (well) off the SE US coast, with a very weak sfc trough noted across the Piedmont of central and northern VA. Scattered tstms clipped our NW zones over the past few hrs, but have mostly pushed N of the CWA now. Have adjusted PoPs fro the remainder of the evening downward a bit based on current radar trends, but will still maintain 20-40% PoPs for a few more hrs over the N to NW 1/2 of the CWA.

As for severe threat, SPC currently has the marginal risk for much of the area but any threat is quickly diminishing as bulk of storms push N and really only the far northern zones have any chance for additional strong storms as the storm organization has been limited by the relatively weak deep layer wind field. Mostly clear SE and partly cloudy elsewhere through the evening, with increasing clouds from the S late (well after midnight) as a weak disturbance aloft over SC/GA slowly tracks to the NE.

Expect warm/humid conditions after midnight w/ perhaps some lingering isolated showers on the eastern shore. Lows ranging from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Thursday .

Could see some showers (w/ perhaps a rumble of thunder or two) from Fri morning-midday as the aforementioned disturbance across SC/GA clips the far SE portion of the CWA. Meanwhile, the upper shortwave over KY/TN approaches the area on Fri before crossing CWA Fri evening-Fri night. Expect tstms to again form to our west by early-mid aftn before crossing the area during the late aftn-evening. Some diurnal weakening is expected Fri night, but tstms may hold together longer (perhaps as late as 06z Sat) than they do tonight given that the upper shortwave is crossing the area. Have high-end chc PoPs for much of the area from Fri aftn-Fri night. Kinematic profiles will be similar to today, but weaker lapse rates (especially from 700-500 mb) and slightly more moist mid-levels will reduce the overall severe threat. SPC has maintained with a General Thunder Risk on Fri with a Marginal Risk just to our NW. More clouds/a bit cooler on Fri with highs in the mid 80s-near 90F. Another warm/humid night Fri night with lows in the upper 60s-low 70s.

On Saturday, surface low pressure is progged to track across ern Canada with its trailing cold front crossing the area Sat evening-Sat night. The day starts out partly sunny, but expect isolated to scattered convection to develop along the front during the aftn (first across nrn portions of the area), with tstm chances increasing across the srn half of the CWA by evening. Tstm chances decrease from NW to SE Sat night, with all PoPs south of the area by early Sun AM. Cannot rule out a few stronger storms with the FROPA. Highs Sat in the upper 80s-low 90s. Lows Sat night in the mid-upper 60s in most areas to near 70F near the Albemarle Sound.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 345 PM EDT Thursday .

Consensus of GEFS/EPS show TC Cristobal making landfall along the wrn Gulf Coast Monday morning before its remnant low tracks northward early next week on the west side of an upper ridge that is progged to amplify over the ern CONUS. Meanwhile, an upper low/deep upper trough over the wrn CONUS is progged to move into the Rockies/High Plains by Tuesday. The forecast becomes slightly more uncertain as we head into the middle of next week as it will depend on how the remnants of Cristobal interact with the aforementioned trough aloft that is progged to move E into the upper Midwest by Wed. Regardless, mainly warm/dry wx is expected from Sun-Tue night. Latest models/ensembles are forecasting that the upper ridge over the area will be slow to break down next week before finally retreating to our SE by late Wed or Thursday. As the ridge breaks down, deep-layer moisture starts to increase in advance of the approaching upper trough/remnant low of Cristobal. Still some uncertainty as to how fast PoPs return, but will go with a slower solution than the previous forecast (given model trends and the fact that models often break down ridges too fast in these types of situations). This results in the return of slight chc PoPs in the gridded forecast by Wed evening (with mainly low-end chc PoPs continuing through Thu). After lows in the upper 50s-low 60s Sun night, highs will be back into the low 80s in most areas on Mon/mid-upper 80s by Tue. Highs mainly in the mid 80s on Wed.

AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 815 PM EDT Thursday .

VFR conditions will continue through at least early morning. Most of the storms will pass to the N and NW of the terminals this evening. However, have maintained slight PoPs for SBY through 06z (~15% chance of precip) to account for any stray showers/storms tonight. Confidence is too low at this time to include VCTS. High clouds will increase from W to E this evening. By early tomorrow morning, cloud cover will increase from the S along with a chance for showers/storms. The extent of the precip is too uncertain at this time to reflect in the taf, but MVFR ceilings will be possible by late morning/early afternoon (generally after 15z). Another round of storms will be possible from W to E after 21z and will likely continue into tomorrow evening.

SSW winds around 10 kts will weaken to 5 to 10 kts overnight before increasing to 10 to 15 kts with a few gusts to 20 kts by late morning/early afternoon.

OUTLOOK . Scattered diurnal tstms continue tomorrow evening through Sat as a cold front drops south towards the area. The front crosses the area late Sat night. Dry wx/VFR conditions Sun/Mon.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EDT Thursday .

No headlines in the short term tonight through Sat. Late this aftn, high pressure was centered well off the Mid Atlc/SE coast. Expect SSW winds mainly 5-15 kt tonight through Fri night, then a cold front will drop across the area Sat evening/Sat night, with winds shifting to the NW or N with a few gusts to near 20 kt possible. Waves will be 1-3 ft and seas will be 2-4 ft. Northerly winds 5-15 kt on Sun, then N or NE 5-10 kt Sun night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/MPR NEAR TERM . ERI/LKB SHORT TERM . ERI/MPR LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . ERI/RMM MARINE . CP/TMG


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 38 mi54 min SSW 15 G 21 77°F 1014.7 hPa (+1.7)
FRFN7 39 mi174 min 1 ft
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 40 mi54 min 64°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 42 mi54 min SSW 7 G 12 81°F 71°F1013.4 hPa (+1.7)
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 47 mi54 min 66°F3 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 49 mi54 min SSW 12 G 16 82°F 1013.2 hPa (+1.8)

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC12 mi59 minSSW 910.00 miFair77°F65°F66%1015.2 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC16 mi60 minSSW 1010.00 miFair79°F62°F56%1014.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEDE

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:57 AM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:45 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     3.54 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:53 PM EDT     -0.42 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:14 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     4.53 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.10.71.72.73.33.53.22.51.50.5-0.2-0.4-0.10.81.93.144.54.43.72.71.5

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:53 AM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:53 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:46 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 06:52 AM EDT     3.37 feet High Tide
Thu -- 12:49 PM EDT     -0.37 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:18 PM EDT     4.30 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.4-0.10.71.62.53.23.43.12.31.40.5-0.2-0.4-00.81.933.94.34.23.62.61.4

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (22,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.