Thursday, December12, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Hertford, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:05AMSunset 4:51PM Thursday December 12, 2019 4:17 PM EST (21:17 UTC) Moonrise 5:28PMMoonset 7:24AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ230 Albemarle Sound- 235 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Tonight..NE winds 15 kt. Waves 2 ft. A slight chance of rain late this evening.
Fri..NE winds around 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of rain in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Sat..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers likely.
Sat night..W winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A slight chance of showers.
Sun..W winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft in the morning, then 1 ft.
Sun night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 15 to 20 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely, then a chance of showers. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 146 Pm Est Thu Dec 12 2019
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles. High pressure passes north of the area today, leading to gusty ne winds. A low pressure system will affect the area Friday into Saturday with widespread rainfall. Drying conditions and high pressure then follow for Sun into early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Hertford, NC
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location: 36.18, -76.47     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 122057 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 357 PM EST Thu Dec 12 2019

SYNOPSIS. High pressure exits to the northeast through tonight. Low pressure develops along the Gulf Coast on Friday, then tracks northeast along the eastern seaboard over the upcoming weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/. As of 330 PM EST Thursday .

Sfc high pressure will be slowly exiting to the northeast through this evening, before pushing off the England coast late tonight. ENE flow off the ocean has already brought a batch of stratocumulus into SE VA and coastal NE NC this afternoon where overcast conditions are expected to continue into tonight. Elsewhere, a mostly clear sky through this evening will give way to increasing clouds before midnight and generally overcast conditions all areas prior sunrise.

Moisture from a developing system to the SSW increases along a sfc trough in vicinity of the mountains tonight. There could be a bit of light rain that funnels north along the immediate coast prior to 12z. Otherwise, the focus of attention in the short term forecast will be on whether or not parts of the Piedmont see any frozen pcpn arriving early Friday morning. At this time, have slight chc Pops (~20%) limited to the coast from 06z- 12z. Also have slight chc PoPs across the far western extent of the FA from 06-09z, increasing to 30-50% by 12z.

Thermal profiles continue to indicate the potential for this precipitation to begin as a period of ZR (IP across the NW where there will be colder temperatures aloft initially). The chance to see a period of ZR/IP will continue across the NW until around 14z before transitioning to all rain. Only minor ice accumulations (if any) are forecast (generally ~0.02" or less) for these areas, and thus have opted not to have a winter wx advisory as impacts will be very minor to none and very short- lived. Will mention light ZR/IP potential in the HWO.

Lows for tonight will occur this evening or before midnight, then steady or slowly rising temps through 12z. Lows from upr 20s/nr 30 NW to around 40 SE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Thursday .

WAA moisture will continue to overspread the area from the SSW through the day on Friday, staying as plain rain for all areas minus the aforementioned far NW/W locations. Deepest moisture arrives later in afternoon Friday into the overnight hours with likely to def PoPs in the forecast for this timeframe. Temperatures will vary widely from NW to SE during the day on Friday due to the in-situ wedge setup with highs ranging from around 40 across the NW to near 60 across the northern OBX.

Low pressure lifts NE and away from the mid-Atlantic region on Saturday. However, upper level energy rotating in from WNW will generate additional rain chances, especially through the morning. PoPs continue to trend lower in the afternoon with potential dry slot arrival. Highs from the low 50s NW to the low 60s SE. Total QPF through Saturday will average around 1".

Dry wx returns Saturday night into Sunday with WNW flow developing. Fair to partly cloudy Saturday night, then mostly sunny on Sunday. Lows Saturday night in the upr 30s to mid 40s. Highs Sunday in the 50s.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 PM EST Wednesday .

Low pressure will continue to move northeast away from the area Saturday, across the Hudson River Valley and into Quebec. Winds will turn northwest behind the low pressure system producing a downslope flow off of the mountains beginning Saturday night, quickly drying the area out. There will only be weak cold air advection as the low moves north, therefore temperatures will remain mild. Saturday and Sunday night temperatures will be in the mid 30s to mid 40s. High temperatures will be in the low to mid 50s on Sunday.

Another low pressure system will develop over the gulf coast states Sunday night and track east as an upper trough amplifies over the central CONUS. The GFS has the center of the low pressure tracking inland, west of the Appalachian mountains, while the Canadian and ECMWF have a low pressure track northeast into the southern Appalachian Monday night and developing a secondary low pressure system somewhere across eastern NC or eastern VA early Tuesday morning. The forecast leans towards the ECMWF and Canadian track. There will be a chance of a rain/snow mix across the northern portions of the forecast area at the onset of the precip Monday morning before a widespread area of rain moves in with the warmer air Monday night.

Temperatures will warm from south to north Monday night with lows in the mid 30s north and low 50s south. With the center of the low pressure tracking over the area, High temperatures on Tuesday will range from the upper 40s in the Piedmont and upper 50/low 60s close to the coast. Cold front will move through behind the low pressure with colder air moving in with high pressure.

AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 1230 PM EST Thursday .

Stratocu moving in off the ocean will allow for borderline MVFR CIGS at the southeast terminals this afternoon into tonight. Otw, clouds increase from SE to NW late this afternoon into this evening. Ceilings are then expected to lower to low end MVFR or IFR early Friday morning (starting 10-12z), especially for KRIC/KSBY as the next system approaches the region. Pcpn mostly in the form of rain will then overspread the entire region from SW to NE during Friday. Winds generally remain light (5-10 knots) from the N to NE through the forecast period.

OUTLOOK . The next system brings rain and degraded flight conditions Friday afternoon through Saturday. The heaviest/steadiest rain is expected Friday night through Saturday morning. A gradual return to VFR conditions expected later Sat, with VFR conditions expected Sunday into early next week.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EST Thursday .

High pressure weakens and moves offshore this evening. SCA now up for North Carolina waters will come down this evening as seas subside. Winds currently around 10 kt in the bay and 10 to 15 kt in coastal waters will remain near constant or decrease slightly by a couple of knots this evening. Waves will remain generally 1 to 2 ft in the bay with seas of 3 to 4 ft in coastal waters this evening into the day Friday. Low pressure will move into the region Friday into Saturday bringing with it increased waves of 2 to 3 ft in the bay and seas of 4 to 6 feet beginning Saturday before subsiding during the day on Sunday. Winds will weaken to 5 to 10 kt on Friday before increasing to 10 to 15 kt Saturday morning and 15 to 20 kt (with coastal waters sustained at 20 to 25 kts) Saturday evening into Sunday morning. SCA will be possible mainly for winds (possibly for seas) in later updates but will not be issued at this time.

A weak cold front settles S over the waters Sun night shifting winds from SW to NE (though conditions expected to be sub-SCA). Onshore winds Mon become SSW (and potentially increase to at least low end SCA) late Mon into Tue as that front lifts back N as a warm front. A stronger cold front is forecast to cross the waters late Tue.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for ANZ658.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM SHORT TERM . JDM LONG TERM . CP AVIATION . AJB/JDM MARINE . ALB/RMM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 38 mi47 min NNE 16 G 19 46°F 1035.5 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 40 mi17 min 53°F4 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 42 mi53 min N 4.1 G 8 43°F 51°F1037.3 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 47 mi17 min 54°F4 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 49 mi47 min NNE 11 G 14 41°F 1037.4 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC12 mi42 minNE 610.00 miFair46°F34°F63%1036.6 hPa
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC16 mi83 minNNE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy47°F30°F54%1036.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KEDE

Wind History from EDE (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNW7NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN4--N6N5NE5NE6NE8
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1 day agoSW11S9S8S8W3NW8N7NW5N11
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Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:43 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:05 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     4.17 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:21 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:39 PM EST     -0.06 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:24 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:27 PM EST     3.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.10.31.12.13.13.94.243.42.41.40.60-00.41.122.83.23.22.721.1

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:14 AM EST     Full Moon
Thu -- 12:39 AM EST     -0.12 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:04 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 07:06 AM EST     3.96 feet High Tide
Thu -- 07:20 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 01:35 PM EST     -0.05 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:48 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 07:27 PM EST     3.11 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0-0.10.31.1233.743.83.22.31.30.50-00.41.11.92.73.132.61.81

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.