Monday, January25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth City, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:09AMSunset 5:25PM Monday January 25, 2021 4:05 PM EST (21:05 UTC) Moonrise 2:27PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 94% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ230 Albemarle Sound- 348 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming ne after midnight, then becoming se 5 to 10 kt late. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 nm or less late this evening, increasing to 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. Rain likely, mainly in the morning. Patchy fog.
Tue night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft or less. A slight chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of rain in the afternoon.
Wed night..N winds 15 to 20 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Rain likely.
Thu..NW winds 20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft. Rain likely, mainly in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Fri..NW winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Sat..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft or less.
AMZ200 327 Pm Est Mon Jan 25 2021
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. Patchy sea fog could may become widespread overnight into Tuesday. Brief improvement is expected late Tuesday into Wednesday before strengthening low pressure creates hazardous conditions later Wednesday into Thursday night. High pressure will build over the waters for the end of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth City, NC
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location: 36.25, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 251626 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1126 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure tracks from the Plains to the Mid-Atlantic from today through Tuesday. Another area of low pressure tracks south of the area late Wednesday into Thursday morning.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1130 AM EST Monday .

Precipitation continues to spread east and north associated with strong warm advection aloft. Temperatures mostly in the 40s across the area except upper 30s north should allow this precip to stay all rain today across the region. Certainly seeing the melting layer in the radar imagery across the Piedmont so it is possible that there could be a brief period of graupel early on in that area over the next few hours. No impact would be expected however with temps well above freezing.

As the precip shield finally overcomes the dry air across the MD eastern shore late this afternoon into this evening, there is a signal in the latest CAMS guidance that there may be a period of snow or rain/snow mix especially across northern Dorchester/Wicomico/Worcester Counties between 00z and 06z as the low levels will likely cool some due to wet bulb effects (Td still in the teens/lower 20s there at this time) and the slightly slower northward push of the warm nose. As such, have added a period of snow or rain/snow this evening in these areas and introduced a minor accumulation of less than an inch. Will need to keep a close eye on this though as some of the high res models including the NAM and NMM suggest more than this. However, the 12z HREF mean and HRRR suggest less than an inch and have opted to trend that direction. However this will need to be watched closely this afternoon/early this evening and if the dew points stay low at the onset of the heavier precip early this evening, may need to do a quick winter weather advisory.

As of 630 AM EST Monday .

Developing sfc low pressure is centered over Oklahoma this morning with the associated shortwave aloft ejecting into the central High Plains. The associated warm front is still well to our south. Skies are overcast across the area with temperatures generally in the 30s. Regional radar mosaic shows an area of very light rain across NE NC. Appreciable pcpn is still to our SW, but has been inching closer to the area during the past few hours. The low over Oklahoma is progged to track into Missouri by this evening as the warm front slowly lifts north through the Carolinas. A large area of light to moderate rain will overspread the area from SW-NE today as an overrunning situation occurs as mild/moist air aloft lifts N of the warm front to the south. Timing for the arrival of pcpn is expected to be during the late morning/midday across the far SW, during the aftn for most other locations in VA and NC, and during the early evening over the Lower MD Ern Shore. Light to moderate rain is expected to continue through much of tonight across the area, with the main area of rain slowly shifting north of I-64. The warm front will likely remain south of the forecast area through tonight.

Pcpn is expected to be in liquid form across most of the area through the entire event. Thermal profiles suggest that pcpn may briefly start as a light snow or a rain/snow mix across parts of the Lower MD Ern Shore this evening before quickly changing to rain (w/ no accums expected). High temperatures will likely occur just before the pcpn arrives, with readings dropping toward wet bulb temps after it starts raining. Still think there is a chance that temperatures could briefly cool to ~32F across Louisa/Fluvanna Counties shortly after the arrival of the pcpn, but not expecting any ice accumulation given that road/sfc temps will likely be above freezing. Highs today range from the upper 30s NW, with mainly low-mid 40s elsewhere. Forecast lows are in the 33-37F range for the NW half of the area, with upper 30s- low 40s SE. The highest QPFs through 12z Tue (around or just above 1") will likely be aligned W-E from the central VA Piedmont to the VA Ern Shore. Elsewhere, expect 0.5-0.9" of rain through 12z Tue.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 325 AM EST Monday .

Rain tapers off from west to east Tuesday morning/midday, with perhaps some lingering light rain near the immediate coast Tuesday aftn. There is still considerable uncertainty with regards to high temps on Tue with the NAM as a cool outlier (low-upper 40s) as it is forecasting an in-situ wedge/OVC cloud cover to remain across the area through much of the day. The global models show the wedge eroding by Tuesday aftn with some clearing across the area as well. Will go with a blended forecast with a bit more weight to the NAM, which gives highs in the upper 40s N, 50s across central/srn VA, and upper 50s-60F for NE NC.

The surface low finally moves offshore by late Tuesday and the trailing cold front is progged to move through the area by late Tuesday night. Cannot rule out an isolated shower across NE NC Tuesday evening, but it should be mainly dry from late Tue-Tue night. Lows Tuesday night range from the mid 30s NW to the mid 40s SE. Wednesday will be cool to mild but mainly dry with highs in the upper 40s-mid 50s ahead of the next approaching system.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 325 AM EST Monday .

Sfc low pressure will deepen as it tracks ENE through the Carolinas on Wednesday and is now progged to move well offshore of the NC Outer Banks by Thursday morning. At the same time, an energetic shortwave drops tracks ESE through the Ohio Valley and over the local area by early Thursday morning. That shortwave is expected to move offshore of the srn Mid-Atlantic coast by 12z Thu. During the past 24 hours, deterministic models have trended towards a faster/more progressive solution with respect to the shortwave aloft (rather than forming it into an upper low over the local area). At the surface, these trends result in the low being considerably weaker as it crosses the area than was thought 24 to 36 hours ago. The interaction of the sfc/upper level feature will result in a good chc of rain and possibly snow over a good portion of the area (with lower PoPs/QPFs across the north). Thermal profiles still suggest more rain than snow as the pcpn initially arrives from the S/SW Wednesday evening, but am still expecting the boundary layer to cool enough to support a changeover to snow for a good portion of the area by 06-12z Thu. However, with the faster solution, pcpn is is expected to quickly exit from W-E during the 09-15z Thursday timeframe (with the window for accumulating snow likely being only a few hours). 00z/25 ensemble solutions continue to trend downward, with EPS/GEFS probabilities of 3"+ of snow only around 10% at best. Even the ensemble probabilities of 1" of snow (at a 10:1 ratio . which will be too high with temps around or just above 32F) are only ~40-50% at best as a faster/weaker solution appears more likely. In the gridded forecast, have snow amounts of a few tenths of an inch for a good portion of the area. The best chc for seeing localized higher amounts (perhaps an inch or so on grassy/elevated surfaces) look to be over south-central and southeast VA (away from the immediate coast).

The timing of Thursday's event appears to be even quicker than previous runs showing much drier air racing in behind the departing system Thursday afternoon/evening for dry wx . and much colder temperatures for Thursday night. Additionally, breezy to perhaps windy conditions are expected after the low passes by (during most the day Thu lasting through the evening near the coast) with the rapidly tightening pressure gradient on the back side of the low. A wind advisory may eventually be needed along the immediate coast. After the storm moves off the East Coast, cold/dry conditions will return for the end of next week as high pressure slowly builds in from the NNW.

Highs through the period will generally range from the mid 30s to mid 40s. Milder by next Sunday. Lows Wednesday night from ~30F NW to the mid 30s SE. Colder Thursday and Friday nights with lows primarily in the 20s.

AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 630 AM EST Monday .

Generally VFR (w/ localized MVFR at ECG) through this morning with dry conditions at RIC/SBY/ORF/PHF, with scattered light rain near ECG. A large area of rain ahead of low pressure and an associated warm front will overspread the area from SW-NE from late this morning through early evening (with mainly light to moderate intensity). Light to moderate rain then continues at most of the terminals through much of tonight before ending from west to east Tuesday morning. CIGs fall to MVFR then IFR during the latter half of the day after the rain moves in. LIFR CIGs appear likely tonight. VSBYs will average 2-4SM in the rain. Winds will generally be light out of the E through tonight.

Outlook: Flight restrictions (mainly due to CIGs) could linger through much of Tuesday before conditions rise back to VFR by Tuesday night. Another low pressure system affects the area Wed night-Thu AM.

MARINE. As of 140 AM EST Monday .

Sfc hi pres continuing to drift off the coast through this morning w/ winds VRB or SSW blo 10 kt. Lo pres will track into and across the mid-Atlantic region (late) tonight then offshore Tue. E winds mainly 5-15 kt (20 kt poss over the nrn ocean waters) before the low moves offshore . then become SSW as the storm exits. Weak hi pres and WNW winds expected Wed. The next storm will then affect the local waters Wed night then exit (quickly) Thu. By late Wed night . NNW winds begin to pick up and become strong in the wake of the storm Thu into Thu night. Despite the storm now appearing to being quicker moving through the region (as well as slower to strengthen offshore Thu-Thu night) . strong SCAs to Gales (highest potential on the ocean waters) are likely.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . ERI NEAR TERM . ERI/MRD SHORT TERM . ERI/RMM LONG TERM . ERI/JDM AVIATION . ERI MARINE . ALB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 25 mi48 min ENE 2.9 G 4.1 43°F 1016.9 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 26 mi40 min 45°F2 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 37 mi48 min ESE 2.9 G 5.1 44°F 44°F1016.1 hPa
44086 45 mi53 min 49°F2 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 45 mi48 min ESE 2.9 G 4.1 42°F 1016.3 hPa
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 47 mi54 min NE 4.1 G 5.1 43°F 44°F1016.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 48 mi48 min SE 7 G 8.9 41°F 1017.1 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 48 mi48 min 43°F1016.5 hPa

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC2 mi72 minESE 510.00 miLight Rain43°F41°F93%1017.3 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC15 mi71 minN 010.00 miOvercast42°F42°F100%1017.6 hPa
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC24 mi71 minE 410.00 miLight Rain45°F45°F100%1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3S3W4CalmSW3CalmCalmCalmCalmS3S3SE3S5SW7S7S3S5S5S3S4CalmE5E5E7
1 day agoN14N8NW8N9N8N10N9NW7NW7NW8N11N10N12N12NW8N9N11N12N7N6N9N64W5
2 days agoW9
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W5CalmSW4SW6SW4N6N5N6N7N7N5N7NW4W5N9NW12N13N14N16
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Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:38 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     3.34 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:09 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:18 AM EST     0.26 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     2.65 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 11:00 PM EST     -0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.42.22.83.23.33.12.51.81.10.60.30.40.81.422.52.72.521.30.70.2-0

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Mon -- 04:37 AM EST     Moonset
Mon -- 04:44 AM EST     3.17 feet High Tide
Mon -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Mon -- 11:14 AM EST     0.23 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:25 PM EST     Moonrise
Mon -- 05:00 PM EST     2.52 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:22 PM EST     Sunset
Mon -- 10:56 PM EST     -0.02 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.71.32.12.73.13.22.92.41.710.50.20.30.71.31.92.42.52.41.91.30.60.1-0

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.