Thursday, July16, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elizabeth City, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 5:58AMSunset 8:23PM Thursday July 16, 2020 10:35 AM EDT (14:35 UTC) Moonrise 1:29AMMoonset 3:51PM Illumination 15% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ230 Albemarle Sound- 1001 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Rest of today..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..SE winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Sat..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sun..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
AMZ200 1011 Am Edt Thu Jul 16 2020
Synopsis for coastal waters from surf city north carolina to south santee river south carolina out to 20 nautical miles.. High pressure will build south along the u.s. East coast today, moving away from the area Friday and Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elizabeth City, NC
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location: 36.25, -76.21     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 161406 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1006 AM EDT Thu Jul 16 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure centered off the New England coast will continue to prevail today, before sliding off the coast tonight into Friday. A trough of low pressure will slide across the area later Friday into Saturday. High pressure off the Southeast coast will bring increasingly hot conditions to the region Sunday into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 1000 AM EDT Thursday .

Fairly quiet mid July day across the region with surface high pressure off eastern Canada and upper level ridging over the northeast. Low chance pops out west today (10-20%) for some widely scattered showers that may try to sneak into the Piedmont. Otherwise, partly cloudy (partly to mostly cloudy along the eastern shore) with high temps this afternoon ranging from the mid 80s along the coast to lower 90s inland.

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 355 AM EDT Thursday .

16/00z numerical guidance is quicker with breaking the ridge down an allowing shortwave energy and a surface trough to track across the region Friday aftn/evening. Forecast PoPs range from 30-50% from the Piedmont to the Ern Shore, with 20-30% for SE VA/NE NC. Much of the local area has received 25-50% of normal rainfall the past 2 weeks (even less in some areas of central VA), so any rain from showers/tstms should be welcome. The only exception in the MD Ern Shore from SBY to WAL to OXB. Given strong surface heating some locally strong wind gusts are possible in any tstms. Hotter and more humid Friday with highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s, and max heat indices in the mid 90s to around 100F. Lows will mainly range from the upper 60s to mid 70s Friday morning.

Similar conditions are expected Saturday with the boundary remaining in the region and some weakness in the ridging aloft over the Mid Atlantic. The potential for showers and tstms increases into the aftn with strong surface heating. Some degree of uncertainty on where the boundary will stall, so will PoPs remain in the chc range (30-50%). More clouds around on Saturday will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s and low 90s (possibly mid 90s for central VA), however, dewpoints in the low to mid 70s will result in afternoon heat indices in the upper 90s and low 100s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 355 AM EDT Thursday .

Latest model guidance for the long range continues to imply hot/humid summer conditions with chance for showers/storms each day. Although certainly not unprecedented, temps are expected to be above normal and the hottest so far this summer, with the broad upper ridge extending from the Rockies through the middle Atlantic states. This will allow 850mb temps of 20-22C to move across the region from the west per the GFS and ECMWF. This would suggest temps in the mid- upper 90s each day with perhaps the warmest day being Monday. In fact, the NBM mean for Monday suggests some 100F high temperatures near and just north of RIC. However, have kept in the upper 90s as any shower/storm activity would keep temps slightly below 100. Regardless of the exact temperature, expect heat index values to approach 105 each day. Speaking of storms, will keep chance PoPs each afternoon/evening in the extended as the area will be on the southern edge of the westerlies which combined with the expected lee trough will allow for late aftn/evening storms to develop across the Piedmont/I-95 corridor and move east before dissipating.

AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 700 AM EDT Thursday .

High pressure will remain in vicinity of the New England coast today, and this will result in a SE wind that will peak at 8-12kt late morning through the aftn. Occasional mid and high clouds will pass across the region this morning, mainly for RIC/SBY/PHF. SCT CU are expected during the aftn, and dry conditions are expected as showers/tstms are expected to remain along and W of the Blue Ridge. The high will gradually slide offshore tonight the the low-level flow veering from SSE to SSW under occasional mid and high clouds, especially after 06z.

The chc for aftn/early evening showers/tstms is generally 20-40% Friday, 30-40% Saturday, and 20-30% Sunday and Monday. VFR conditions are expected to prevail outside of showers/tstms.

MARINE. As of 325 AM EDT Thursday .

No headlines in the short term through Saturday. Early this morning, sfc high pressure was pushing off the New England coast. Winds were E 5-10 kt, while waves/seas were 1-2 ft. Expect winds to become SE 10-15 kt this aftn, then SSE 10-15 kt Fri aftn. SSW winds around 10 kt or less expected Sat and Sun, as a weakening frontal boundary washes out over the region. Waves on the Ches Bay will remain 1-2 ft through the period, with seas 2-3 ft.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ NEAR TERM . CMF SHORT TERM . AJZ/RHR LONG TERM . AJZ/MRD AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . JDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
FRFN7 25 mi156 min 3 ft
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 25 mi126 min E 16 G 17
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 26 mi40 min 80°F3 ft
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 33 mi40 min 80°F3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 37 mi48 min 83°F
44086 45 mi23 min 79°F3 ft
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 45 mi126 min E 9.9 G 11
ORIN7 - 8652587 - Oregon Inlet Marina, NC 47 mi54 min 81°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 48 mi126 min E 11 G 12
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 48 mi48 min 82°F

Wind History for Duck, NC
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC2 mi42 minE 910.00 miPartly Cloudy85°F73°F70%1022.8 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC15 mi41 minE 610.00 miFair81°F72°F77%1023 hPa
Edenton, Northeastern Regional Airport, NC24 mi41 minE 13 G 1710.00 miPartly Cloudy83°F75°F78%1022.7 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrNE6NE6E8E7E8E9E10E10E9E9E8E6E8E6E4NE4NE4N3N5N3NE5E8E9E9
1 day agoCalmN34CalmSE7SE7NE18
G26
E6E6E5E6E5E4E5E5E3E3CalmCalmCalmNE4NE5NE5NE4
2 days agoN7CalmCalmE8S8S7E11
G19
SE7S3SE5SW3Calm--S5S3CalmCalmNW3CalmNW5NW3NW9N6NE3

Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     2.93 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:33 AM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     3.74 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:20 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:41 PM EDT     0.62 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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11.422.62.92.92.62.11.510.60.611.62.333.63.73.63.12.51.71.10.7

Tide / Current Tables for Duck Pier, outside, North Carolina (2)
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Duck Pier
Click for Map
Thu -- 02:26 AM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:33 AM EDT     2.79 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:58 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:29 AM EDT     0.52 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:49 PM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 05:03 PM EDT     3.56 feet High Tide
Thu -- 08:19 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 11:37 PM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.41.92.42.72.82.521.40.90.60.60.91.52.22.93.43.63.432.31.610.6

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (10,2,3,4)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.