Friday, August23, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Aulander, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 6:33AMSunset 7:53PM Friday August 23, 2019 8:33 PM EDT (00:33 UTC) Moonrise 11:29PMMoonset 12:54PM Illumination 40% Phase: Third Quarter Moon; Moon at 23 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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AMZ130 Albemarle Sound- 307 Pm Edt Thu Apr 4 2019
Tonight..E winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Fri..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 ft. Showers.
Sat..W winds around 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft. A chance of showers.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 ft. A slight chance of showers in the evening.
Sun..N winds around 5 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 ft.
Sun night..SE winds around 5 kt. Waves 1 ft.
Mon..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming W 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Aulander, NC
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location: 36.29, -77.09     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 232348
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
748 pm edt Fri aug 23 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will stall along the carolina coast over the weekend.

High pressure will build in behind the front Saturday. Low pressure
is expected to develop along the front early next week.

Near term through Saturday night
As of 745 pm edt Friday...

cold front and assctd pcpn now along the va nc border and slowly
sagging se. Cancelled the svr watch except for sern va NE nc.

Based off of current radar trends, will keep the ffa going but
may adjust some over the next few hrs. Still some hvy downpours
across sern va NE nc, but it appears the threat for flash flooding
is diminishing.

Otw, mstly cldy. Lows mid 60s north to lwr 70s se.

Pvs dscn:
by Saturday morning the front is expected to be just off the
carolina coast. High pressure builds in behind the front. NE flow
and plenty of low level moisture will be available that additional
showers will be around, especially in far SE va and NE nc where pops
will still run 50-70 percent. High temps on Saturday will be much
cooler, only reaching the upper 70s in most locations, possibly
cooler in areas where rain persists. There will be a noticeable drop
in humidity especially from i64 north where dewpoints will be in the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Winds behind the front will be out of the
n NE generally 5 to 10 mph, and a bit higher right along the
coast.

Short term Sunday through Monday
As of 320 pm edt Friday...

the models continue to push the sfc cold front southward toward
the carolina coast by Saturday evening and then stall it along
the coast as the surface high builds eastward into new england
with a good set up for a wedge to develop along the eastern
seaboard. The big adjustment was to continue to slow the
progression of the pops southward on Sat night as another
shortwave rotates through the exiting trough over northeast and
mid-atlantic. By Sunday morning, the surface high looks like it
will push the moisture far enough south to limit the chances for
any showers to mainly NE nc and the va tidewater with drying of
the mid and upper level expected to continue through the day on
Sunday suppressing the pcpn farther south through the day.

However, the low level moisture should remain in place with
strong easterly flow through about 850 mb. That may be enough to
hold clouds in place and could limit the day time heating. For
now have gone close to 80s most areas, but if those lower clouds
do hold together could see readings more in the mid 70s toward
the southern va piedmont.

The forecast for Sunday night into Monday could change rapidly
over the next few days depending on the potential development of
a tropical system of the SE us coast. The models are struggling
with the development and location of the system with the 12z gfs
quicker to develop the system and move it northward into the
carolinas by Monday afternoon while the 12 ECMWF is slower and
farther to the SE off the coast with much less impact to the
region. So for now have maintained a low chance pops for showers
with the moisture overrunning the wedging high and getting
temperatures back toward the lower 80s with good onshore flow.

Again will need to monitor the potential tropical development
along the SE us coast this weekend.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 300 pm edt Friday...

the early part of the extended forecast will depend much upon any
development and potential track of the tropical disturbance
currently off the fl coast. Latest NHC outlook suggests that
this system will stay well off the local coast. Despite that,
given the proximity to the tropical system and the potential for
some tropical type showers to move across the area, and some
reinforcing moisture lift from weak upper disturbances moving
across the mid atlc and NE states in the w-sw flow aloft, will
maintain low chance pops Mon night through thu. However, if the
tropical system stays further offshore it is conceivable that
much of the middle of next week will be dry other than perhaps
some widely scattered afternoon evening storms. Otherwise, by
Friday the GFS and ECMWF both show drying across the area as a
ridge axis builds in from the west. As such, have kept Friday
dry.

Temps on Tuesday will trend slightly below normal due to the
extensive cloudiness (although it will be muggy), but then rise to
near normal for wed-fri.

Aviation 00z Saturday through Wednesday
As of 745 pm edt Friday...

cold front and assctd convection now along the va nc border and
is slowly sagging to the se. Convection has ended at ric sby and
phf. Based on latest radar obs, kept vcts at orf and will keep a
tempo group at ecg for a few more hrs.

Wind shift to the n-ne has brought a bkn ifr st deck in north of
the front. Models show the ifr CIGS lingering for a few hrs then
remaining lifting a bit to btw 1-2k ft overnight.

Cigs will be slow to rise Sat but should eventually goVFR by 18z.

N-ne winds 10-15 kts along the coast, less than 10 kts away from
the water.

Outlook...

low pressure developing along the stalled front and a high
building in to the north will keep an easterly flow with ample
moisture for the chance of additional showers especially at
eastern TAF locations into erly next week.

Marine
As of 245 pm edt Friday...

sfc cold front continues to drop south across waters this aftn.

Latest observations reflect nnely flow over northern waters just
north of the front, with ssw flow over southern waters 10-15 kt just
ahead of the boundary. Sfc cold front will continue to slowly drop
south through central and southern waters late today through this
evening, before slowing down further nearly stalling near the va nc
this evening... Eventually pushing south of the region by Saturday
aftn. Ahead of the front, SW will continue ~10 to 15 knots. Behind
the front, winds veer around to the nne at around 10 to 15 knots.

Still expect a round of showers and t-storms, with numerous smw mws
likely with convection along the frontal passage this evening over
the bay, rivers and northern central waters. A short-lived surge
likely as cooler air initially settles across the waters. Seas this
aftn and tonight will generally range from 2 to 3 feet, and waves in
the bay around 1 to 2 feet.

As surface high pressure builds in from the north and low pressure
develops along the southeast coast on Saturday, NE winds will likely
increase to 15 to 20 knots with gusts to 25 knots. Small craft
advisories have been issued for Saturday night and Sunday over the
bay and lower james, and may be needed with into early next week as
onshore flow persists. NE flow will allow for seas to build to 5 to
6 feet (potentially 7 feet out 20 nm) and waves at the mouth of the
bay to build to as high as 4 to 5 feet. Winds and seas look to
diminish by mid-week.

High pressure will continue to nose in from the north as the cold
front becomes quasi-stationary offshore late Sat through Sunday
aftn. By Sunday night, sfc low pressure begins to take shape and
eventually slides NE along the front offshore into early next week.

Pressure gradient becomes more compressed with time Mon tue. While
considerable model differences persist, probabilistic models all
seem to show sfc low tracking along the front. The GFS is a bit
weaker slower and closest to the coast, while the ECMWF and its
ensemble mean stronger and farther offshore. Upshot for the moment
is strongest winds will remain offshore and will reflect as much for
now. Nnw wind orientation should keep seas on the lower side of the
envelope and will stay just below wavewatch.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... Flash flood watch until 4 am edt Saturday for ncz012>017-
030>032.

Va... Flash flood watch until 4 am edt Saturday for vaz092-093-
095>098-524-525.

Marine... Small craft advisory from 6 pm Saturday to 6 pm edt Sunday for
anz630>632-634.

Small craft advisory from midnight Saturday night to 6 pm edt
Sunday for anz638.

Synopsis... Cmf mpr
near term... Cmf mpr
short term... Ess
long term... Mrd
aviation... Mpr
marine... Mam


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 54 mi63 min NNE 7 G 13 77°F 82°F1013.4 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 57 mi63 min NNE 13 G 16 77°F 1013.4 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Ahoskie, Tri-County Airport, NC4 mi39 minNNW 10 G 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy74°F73°F100%1015.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KASJ

Wind History from ASJ (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Suffolk, Virginia
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Suffolk
Click for Map
Fri -- 04:19 AM EDT     3.64 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:17 AM EDT     0.85 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:52 PM EDT     4.29 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 11:22 PM EDT     1.13 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.12.83.33.63.63.12.51.81.20.90.91.42.12.93.74.14.343.52.821.51.2

Tide / Current Tables for Hollidays Point (bridge), Virginia
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Hollidays Point (bridge)
Click for Map
Fri -- 03:33 AM EDT     2.91 feet High Tide
Fri -- 06:29 AM EDT     Sunrise
Fri -- 09:45 AM EDT     0.71 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 10:58 AM EDT     Last Quarter
Fri -- 01:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Fri -- 04:06 PM EDT     3.42 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:47 PM EDT     Sunset
Fri -- 10:50 PM EDT     0.94 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.12.62.92.92.62.21.61.10.80.711.52.12.83.23.43.32.92.41.91.410.9

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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GOES Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (20,4,5,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.