Tuesday, September29, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
South Mills, NC

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:57AMSunset 6:52PM Tuesday September 29, 2020 10:14 AM EDT (14:14 UTC) Moonrise 5:15PMMoonset 3:41AM Illumination 93% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 12 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ633 Currituck Sound- 957 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
.small craft advisory in effect from 8 pm edt this evening through Wednesday morning...
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the late evening and early morning, then becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers likely in the evening, then showers after midnight with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. Showers in the morning.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 957 Am Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure moves through the region this afternoon through tonight, with a cold front crossing the mid-atlantic waters Wednesday morning. High pressure builds across the area into the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near South Mills, NC
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location: 36.44, -76.29     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 291148 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 748 AM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A slow moving cold front approaches the area today and crosses the area tonight into Wednesday morning. Drier conditions return by Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front crosses the area Friday, with cool and dry conditions expected for the first part of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday .

Latest analysis reveals a digging/upper trough dropping across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, reaching all the way to the lower MS Valley and western Gulf coast early this morning. Sfc low pressure is centered over Ontario, N of the Great Lakes with a cold front extending S to the southern Appalachians. Main swath of Pcpn associated with the front will remain well to our W through much of today given that the flow aloft id SSW and nearly parallel to the front. There will still be scattered to numerous showers today as we remain in the warm sector and an area of increasing deep layered moisture. Latest CAMs are showing the bulk of the shower activity this morning along and to the E of I-95, especially over interior sections of SE/E VA. While at least chance PoPs will be maintained for all of the CWA this morning/early aftn, most of the guidance shows only minimal shower coverage to the W of I-95 (with the widespread shield of rain with the actual cold front remaining W of the CWA). There is enough instability progged by aftn to include slight chance tstm mention for most of the area.

By later this aftn, as the stronger lift associated with the upper trough pivots E, both the GFS/NAM depict pressure falls from western VA south across the Carolinas. This feature then becomes the main sfc low which will pass across the local area from late this aftn/early evening (W of I95) to the coast (later this evening/overnight). This period will be when the best combination of stronger lift and deeper moisture affects the region with a more widespread heavy rainfall and the potential for localized flooding. In addition, SPC continues with a marginal risk area over SE 1/2 of the CWA, with a minimal, (but nonzero) tornado risk given strong shear and potentially some local backing of the low level wind fields given the sfc low development over the interior Carolinas. Highs today will range from around 80F SE to the mid 70s NW.

Pops will increase to 90-100% all zones at some point from 21Z through 06Z (from W to E), aided by strong lift from an impressive ~160-180 kt upper-level jet streak to our NNW (on the E side of the trough). Our area will be situated in the RRQ of the aforementioned jet streak (which is one of the regions favorable for large-scale ascent) during this timeframe. and given PWAT values in excess of 1.75" most areas along with a nearly unidirectional S flow there will be training storms and the threat for flooding. At this point, the more progressive nature of the system as a whole will lead to total QPF amounts that will avg 1 to 2" across the area rather than the 3-4" the models suggest from 24 hrs ago. Generally highest QPF in the E/SE, but localized amounts in excess of 2" will possible just about anywhere in the CWA. Will linger slight chc-chc PoPs Wed from 09-12Z, highest along the coast, but the faster trends have continued and Wed now appears to be a dry day with skies becoming mostly sunny.

SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EDT Tuesday .

Expect mainly dry wx, cooler conditions, and lower humidity from Wed through much of Thu before a secondary cold front crosses the area late Thu. There is a slight chc of showers across the nrn third of the area Thu aftn/spreading E Thu night as the secondary front approaches.

Forecast highs on Wed are generally in the low to mid 70s. Low temps Wednesday night will range from the around 50F NW to upper 50s close to the coast. Highs Thu in the upper 70s Se to the lower-mid 70s NW.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 230 AM EDT Tuesday .

A broad trough aloft will be dominant through the extended period . resulting in mainly dry and cool wx. The latest 00Z/29 models continue to show a fast moving shortwave passing by the region on Fri, which will be enough for a period of more clouds and 20-30% PoPs (highest N/NE). Highs Fri will generally only be in the 60s due to more cloud cover and low level flow shifting to the N. Becoming mostly clear/cool Fri night with lows in the 40s over much of the local area, with 50s along the coast. High pressure is progged to settle over the region for Sat with mainly sunny skies and cool temperatures with highs 65-70F. Continued cool Sat night with lows in the 40s over much of the interior again, with 50s at the coast. The models are trending slightly stronger with a ridge well off the SE US coast Sat night-Mon, with a sharpening upstream trough across the central CONUS. This would act to bring a stronger SW flow aloft and potentially increasing moisture and chances for rain to the local area. For now, have only raised PoPs on Sunday to ~20% in NE NC with just increased clouds elsewhere and highs similar to Sat. Raised PoPs slightly for Mon, though there are big model differences and am not going anywhere near as wet as the ECMWF which is quite strong with the upper trough compared to the consensus.

AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 730 AM EDT Tuesday .

An area of showers with a few embedded tstms is now moving across NE NC and will likely overspread much of SE VA and perhaps the eastern shore through the next few hrs. Have included a TEMPO group for IFR VSBYs at ECG in heavier showers and MVFR conditions for ORF/PHF. Some lower CIGs (but less of a chance for rain elsewhere. During the late morning and aftn, bulk of the shower activity will remain across eastern 1/2 of the area with RIC mostly dry. S winds could occasionally gust to 15-20 kt this aftn. Overall, the most widespread flight restrictions in both heavy rain and low CIGs will be tonight, from 00-09Z. Winds shift sharply from the S to the NW w/ the frontal passage tonight between 00-06Z most areas. Lingering low clouds and light showers are likely at area terminals through 09-12Z.

Outlook . Rapidly improving conditions during the day on Wed in the wake of the cold front, with little to no pcpn chances at the terminals after 12Z/Wed. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through much of Thu before another front crosses the area Thu night-Fri AM (bringing a slight chc of SHRAs). Dry/VFR Fri evening through Sunday AM.

MARINE. As of 300 AM EDT Tuesday .

Latest analysis shows a cold front approaching from the west with high pressure located well offshore. Generally S to SSW winds over the waters early this morning at around 5 to 15 knots. Seas range from 3 to 4 feet and waves in the Bay around 1 to 2 feet. SSW winds increase later this afternoon into this evening to 15 to 25 knots as the cold front slowly approaches the region from the west. Winds become NNW early Wednesday morning and remain elevated behind the frontal passage. Seas likely build to 4 to 6 feet (isolated 7 feet out 20 nm) as we head through today into tomorrow with waves building 2 to 3 feet in the Bay (up to 4 feet at the mouth). Small Craft Advisories have been expanded to include all of the Chesapeake Bay and Currituck Sound later this afternoon/evening into Wednesday morning due to an increased probability of seeing wind gusts of 20 to 25 knots during this timeframe. SCAs for coastal waters north of Cape Charles Light have been extended into Wednesday evening as seas will likely linger around 5 feet, especially out 20 nm.

Winds decrease fairly quickly (to around 10 knots) Wednesday morning and afternoon as the gradient relaxes across the region. Another cold front approaches and crosses the waters Thursday into Friday morning. Winds may briefly increase behind the front, though are forecast to remain sub-SCA at this time. High pressure returns for the later part of the week into the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632-634. Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 11 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . ERI/LKB SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ALB/LKB AVIATION . LKB MARINE . ALB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 23 mi57 min SSE 6 G 8.9 74°F 71°F1011.7 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 31 mi57 min S 7 G 9.9 73°F 1011.8 hPa
DUKN7 - Duck Pier, NC - 8651370 34 mi57 min SE 8.9 G 9.9 74°F 1012.5 hPa
44056 - Duck FRF, NC 35 mi49 min 73°F3 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 35 mi57 min 71°F1011.9 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 37 mi57 min SE 6 G 8 73°F 1012.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 37 mi63 min WSW 2.9 G 4.1 72°F 1012.2 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 37 mi57 min S 8.9 G 9.9 73°F 1011.2 hPa
44100 - Duck FRF 26m, NC (430) 39 mi49 min 73°F3 ft
44087 41 mi49 min 71°F1 ft
CHBV2 42 mi57 min SSE 8 G 8 71°F 1011.2 hPa

Wind History for Money Point, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Elizabeth City C/G Regional Airport, NC14 mi21 minSSE 810.00 miA Few Clouds77°F73°F90%1012.8 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA15 mi60 minSSE 410.00 miLight Rain72°F70°F96%1012.2 hPa
Currituck, Currituck County Airport, NC15 mi20 minS 610.00 miPartly Cloudy73°F73°F100%1012.9 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA23 mi20 minS 610.00 miOvercast74°F73°F99%1012.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KECG

Wind History from ECG (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmE8SE7SE6SE8E11SE6SE9SE7SE6SE9S5S4S5S6S5S5S43SE4SE4SE5S9S8
1 day ago3NW8W9W64SW7SW7SW4W5SW4CalmS6S5SW4S3CalmS3CalmW3W4CalmCalmS4S3
2 days agoSW8S6SW8W4NE7E6N6NW5N6NE5N4N5NW6NW6NW6W6NW4N5NW5W3W6CalmNW5N4

Tide / Current Tables for False Cape, Virginia
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False Cape
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Tue -- 12:37 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:42 AM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:48 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:13 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 07:01 PM EDT     4.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.611.82.63.544.13.732.11.30.70.60.91.62.53.444.34.13.42.61.6

Tide / Current Tables for Currituck Beach Light, North Carolina
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Currituck Beach Light
Click for Map
Tue -- 12:32 AM EDT     0.55 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 04:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 06:37 AM EDT     3.88 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:57 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 12:43 PM EDT     0.59 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 06:48 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 06:56 PM EDT     4.07 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.611.82.63.33.83.83.52.821.20.70.60.91.62.53.33.94.13.83.22.41.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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