Monday, March8, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Kilauea, HI

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:45AMSunset 6:40PM Monday March 8, 2021 5:10 AM HST (15:10 UTC) Moonrise 3:49AMMoonset 1:31PM Illumination 25% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 25 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kilauea, HI
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location: 36.66, -151.22     debug


Area Discussion for -
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FXHW60 PHFO 081340 AFDHFO

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Honolulu HI 340 AM HST Mon Mar 8 2021

SYNOPSIS. Cloudy and showery weather is expected for the first half of the week as an upper level disturbance interacts with tropical moisture moving in from the east and south. Breezy trade winds will give way to lighter winds by mid-week as a surface trough moves over the islands. Strong and gusty northeast winds are in the forecast for next weekend.

DISCUSSION. The combination of cold temperatures aloft and a deep tropical air mass will result in an extended period of widespread heavy showers and possible thunderstorms through mid week. A Flash Flood Watch is currently in effect for the Big Island and Maui County through Tuesday night. This watch could be extended to the other islands if the conditions warrant. This moisture will also bring a potential for winter weather to the Big Island summits above 11k feet through mid week. A Winter Weather Advisory is effect through early Tuesday morning with the likelihood of additional extensions.

The latest ECMWF model run has nudged toward the GFS solution. Not completely but closer by placing the surface trough over the central islands on Thursday. The trough presented by the EC, although not as strong as the GFS, will still cut off the trades. This surface trough not expected to clear the Big Island until Saturday afternoon.

There is no disagreement with the models in addressing the upper level low/trough. Both models have the low southwest of Kauai opening up to a trough Wednesday. The upper trough then pushes eastward across the island chain, finally moving past the Big Island by Friday morning. With the upper level trough moving east of the surface trough, there will only be limited support for heavy rains. So, expect an improving trend Thursday through Friday, from west to east.

Heavy showers ended across the Hilo and Puna districts just before midnight. This dry period will help the ground recover from the drenching it took earlier. Now, the leading edge of a new area of clouds and showers has just moved ashore into the Puna and Kau districts. Hopefully, the land breeze will slow down its progress inland, and/or weaken the showers. Passing showers have been observed with the remaining islands. Satellite imagery shows mid and high clouds streaming across the eastern half of the island chain that will get thicker through the rest of today.

Following the trough, strong northeast winds are expected to spread down the island chain from east to west, that is between Friday and Saturday. It won't be until Sunday night and Monday when the northeast winds weakens.

AVIATION. VFR conditions prevail at all TAF sites except PHTO where MVFR to IFR conditions are expected through the night due to low clouds and showers. As increasing moisture moves in from the southeast tonight, conditions will deteriorate mainly over windward slopes of the Big Island and Maui County. AIRMET Sierra for mountain obscuration is currently in effect for the NE slopes of the Big Island and will likely be expanded to Maui County.

AIRMET Tango is currently in effect over and immediately south thru west of mountain ranges on all islands due to low level mechanical turbulence.

MARINE. A high far north of the main Hawaiian Islands will slowly drift southeast over the next few days as it drives moderate to locally strong trades across Hawaiian waters through 6 am HST Tuesday morning. Trade wind waves, combined with northerly swell, will maintain elevated seas over exposed waters. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early Tuesday morning for all Hawaiian waters. Models develop a surface trough east the area in the coming days and slowly drag it across the state through the week. This would disrupt mid to late week trade flow.

Strong trade winds will cause surf to remain elevated along east- facing shores today and tonight. A High Surf Advisory for eastern exposures remains in effect through tonight. North swell will continue to decline through today. However, reinforcing north and northwest swells, in tandem with a trade wind wave/east swell wrap, will generate medium surf heights along most north and west- facing shores through today. Diminishing northerly swells will cause surf heights along north and west shore to decrease from Tuesday into next weekend. Small, long period south and southwest swells, along with some trade wrap, will provide enough background to support near seasonable surf along most south-facing shores.

HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. High Surf Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Kauai Windward- Oahu Koolau-Olomana-Molokai Windward-Maui Windward West-Windward Haleakala-South Big Island-Big Island North and East.

Flash Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Big Island.

Flash Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for Molokai-Lanai- Kahoolawe-Maui.

Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for Big Island Summits.

Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM HST Tuesday for all Hawaiian waters-



H Lau/Morrison/Powell


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