Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Elkhorn, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:13AMSunset 5:23PM Friday January 22, 2021 7:48 AM PST (15:48 UTC) Moonrise 12:36PMMoonset 1:55AM Illumination 68% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 200 Am Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect from 6 am pst this morning through this evening...
Today..W winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft, increasing to 4 to 5 ft this afternoon. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 13 seconds and S around 2 ft at 18 seconds. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 17 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..W winds up to 10 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds and W up to 2 ft at 21 seconds. Rain.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 35 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds and W 2 to 4 ft at 20 seconds. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft and nw 2 to 4 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft. Rain likely. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 200 Am Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Expect gusty winds, showers, and a slight chance of scattered Thunderstorms this morning and into the afternoon as a cold front moves through the waters. Unsettled weather will continue through much of the forecast period as a series of storms move through the region. The next one being on Sunday and into Monday. This front will be accompanied by widespread gusty winds with gale force conditions possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Another storm system is then expected mid next week. Moderate northwest swell will persist as a couple additional northwest swells arrive today and then on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Elkhorn, CA
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location: 36.82, -121.75     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 221151 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 351 AM PST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A significant shift in the weather pattern will bring rain showers and much cooler temperatures to the region today. After a brief break on Saturday, more widespread rainfall is expected late in the weekend with colder temperatures and lowering snow levels. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into next week with a potential atmospheric river arriving during midweek.

DISCUSSION. as of 3:45 AM PST Friday . More typical winter- like weather is making a return to the Bay Area as a mid/upper level low approximately 275 miles to the north-northwest of San Francisco drops southward along the coast today. Regional radars and surface observations indicate isolated to scattered rain showers are moving into the North Bay and will soon reach the San Francisco Peninsula within the next few hours. These showers are generally producing rainfall rates of a few hundredths to 0.10" per hour and will continue to spread across the Bay Area and then over the Central Coast through sunrise as a cold front pushes inland. Cannot rule out isolated showers producing up to 0.25" per hour at times. As the core of the mid/upper level low approaches the Bay Area late this morning, more widely scattered showers are expected over the region and will continue through the afternoon. Given the colder air mass aloft, instability will increase enough to produce the potential for isolated thunderstorms. Locally heavier rainfall, small hail and brief gusty winds will likely accompany any heavier showers/thunderstorms from late morning into the afternoon. Rain showers will diminish from north to south with only lingering showers remaining over the Central Coast tonight. Rainfall with this first system will likely range from 1/10" up to 1/3" for the lower elevations/urban areas while isolated pockets of 1/2" to 3/4" cannot be ruled out within heavier showers/thunderstorms. As mentioned earlier, this system will advect much cooler air into the region resulting in daytime temperatures only warming into the low/mid 50s (40s in the hills, ridges and peaks). Snow levels will gradually lower to < 4,000 ft late in the day allowing for the potential for a few snow showers in the region's highest peaks. The primary hazard today will likely be slick roadways after the recent prolonged dry stretch and of course any impacts associated with isolated thunderstorms that may develop.

Tonight will be mostly dry with temperatures dropping into the 30s to lower 40s for much of the region. Cannot rule out near freezing temperatures in the region's coldest interior valleys, especially where sky conditions clear and winds diminish. Saturday looks to be mostly sunny and slightly warmer (mid/upper 50s) in wake of the exiting system.

The next storm system will arrive Sunday into Monday with a reinforcing shot of colder air, widespread moderate rainfall and breezy winds along the coast and over the higher peaks. Rainfall amounts are forecast to be similar to locally greater than today's system, yet primarily beneficial with limited hazards. This system however will be accompanied lowering snow levels which are forecast to drop to < 2,000 ft over the Bay Area and <2,500 ft over the Central Coast by Sunday night/Monday morning. The longer post frontal showers linger over the region will determine how much snowfall will occur over the region's ridges and peaks. Even colder surface temperatures are also expected Sunday through Tuesday with daytime highs generally in the lower 50s and overnight lows in the 30s to lower 40s. More widespread freezing temperatures will be possible away from the immediate coast.

While a few showers may linger Monday into Monday night, widespread rainfall does not appear likely during this time frame. This will be the brief break before a more potent weather system arrives Tuesday into Wednesday. Ensembles have been consistent in showing the arrival of a weak to potentially moderate atmospheric river advecting inland from late Tuesday and persisting into Thursday. There remains some differences in the deterministic models regarding the exact timing and trajectory of this system, however confidence continues to increase that the region will see more widespread, moderate to heavy rainfall (especially along the coastal ranges). The current thinking is that rainfall amounts of 1.00" to 3.00" will be possible midweek for most urban areas while higher elevations would likely receive double that. As always with atmospheric rivers, isolated rainfall amounts may be greater in the orographically enhanced coastal slopes and lesser in the rain shadowed valleys. This event will be closely monitored in the coming days as this amount of precipitation would greatly increase the potential for mud and rock slides across steeper terrain as well as widespread nuisance type flooding in lower lying, poorly drained areas. Additionally, any high intensity rain rates could potentially trigger debris flows in recent burn areas. One last think to keep in mind is strong southerly winds ahead of the approaching atmospheric river that may topple trees and/or power lines.

Cool, unsettled conditions will potentially continue at times through late next week and into the following weekend as the storm track remains active over the region. Be sure to stay tuned in the coming days as we fine tune the forecast!

AVIATION. as of 3:35 AM PST Friday . For the 12Z TAFs. Mixed conditions this morning as low clouds slowly fill in while a cold front moves through the region. Observations show cig heights between 1,000 to 3,000 generally with an additional layer of mid level clouds around 5,000 to 8,000 ft AGL. The main boundary should still have passed by about 16z with an additional round of showers after 18z that may be accompanied by scattered thunderstorms. Generally MVFR conditions prevailing into this afternoon before cigs lift and showers exit. Slight possibility of some patchy fog over the North Bay once the front has passed and low level moisture lingers. S/SW winds this morning as the front passes before winds turn more W/NW behind the front.

Vicinity of KSFO . MVFR through this afternoon as showers move through. A slight chance of thunderstorms after 18z with lingering showers into the afternoon. Slight chance of MVFR cigs overnight, though confidence is low. S/SW winds this morning turning W/NW behind the front. Winds may be locally breezy during the frontal passage.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . MVFR/VFR as showers approach, temporary IFR cigs/vis possible with heavier showers. Slight chance of thunderstorms this afternoon. Expecting VFR conditions to return this afternoon with lowering cigs possible overnight. S/SW winds this morning with locally breezy conditions along the coast. Breezy W/NW winds behind the front this afternoon. Showers will linger behind the system into tonight, but become more widely scattered.

MARINE. as of 02:00 AM PST Friday . Expect gusty winds, showers, and a slight chance of scattered thunderstorms this morning and into the afternoon as a cold front moves through the waters. Unsettled weather will continue through much of the forecast period as a series of storms move through the region. The next one being on Sunday and into Monday. This front will be accompanied by widespread gusty winds with gale force conditions possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Another storm system is then expected mid next week. Moderate northwest swell will persist as a couple additional northwest swells arrive today and then on Sunday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tday. SCA . Mry Bay from 6 AM SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm from 6 AM SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm SCA . Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm from 8 AM SCA . Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm



PUBLIC FORECAST: RGass AVIATION: AS MARINE: AS

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 1 mi64 min SSE 2.9 46°F 1014 hPa45°F
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 3 mi34 min 53°F
46092 - MBM1 16 mi52 min NNW 16 50°F 53°F1013.9 hPa (+0.7)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 16 mi53 min 54°F3 ft
46269 17 mi49 min 52°F4 ft
MEYC1 17 mi73 min WNW 7 G 13 50°F 1014.9 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 33 mi53 min 55°F7 ft
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 34 mi29 min NW 18 G 21 53°F 54°F1015.1 hPa44°F
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 38 mi53 min 55°F6 ft

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA9 mi56 minSSW 57.00 miLight Rain47°F46°F97%1014.7 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA13 mi56 minS 97.00 miLight Rain47°F43°F86%1015.3 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA17 mi55 minW 105.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist50°F47°F89%1016.5 hPa
Hollister, CA, CA19 mi54 minSSE 34.00 miFog/Mist45°F43°F93%1014.6 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWVI

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5SW5SW8SW4SW5CalmCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3CalmW3S5
1 day agoNW4CalmE34CalmSE4SW3SW7W5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW5CalmN3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoNE16
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N43NE7W4NE3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmW3CalmCalmNW5W3

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn, California (2)
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Elkhorn
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:54 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:30 AM PST     4.89 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:36 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:55 PM PST     0.92 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:22 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 07:52 PM PST     3.34 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.633.54.14.64.84.84.53.93.12.21.51.10.91.11.522.52.93.33.33.33.12.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:22 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:17 AM PST     0.40 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:12 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:20 AM PST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:37 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:39 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:23 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:45 PM PST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:42 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:48 PM PST     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.30.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.