Tuesday, August4, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Norfolk, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:12AMSunset 8:09PM Tuesday August 4, 2020 12:39 AM EDT (04:39 UTC) Moonrise 8:11PMMoonset 5:56AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ634 Chesapeake Bay From Little Creek Va To Cape Henry Va Including The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- 1218 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
.tornado watch 414 in effect until 6 am edt early this morning...
Overnight..Tropical storm conditions. SE winds 10 kt, increasing to 35 to 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Waves around 2 ft, building to 5 ft. A chance of showers late this evening. A chance of tstms. Rain with vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions expected. S winds 45 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, becoming sw 20 to 25 kt in the afternoon. Waves around 8 ft, subsiding to 6 ft in the afternoon. Rain in the morning. A chance of tstms. Showers likely in the afternoon. Vsby 1 to 3 nm until late afternoon.
Tue night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms in the evening.
Thu..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers. A chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Fri..SW winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of tstms early in the morning. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Fri night..SW winds 5 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms in the late evening and overnight.
Sat..NW winds 5 kt, becoming ne in the afternoon. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Sat night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. A chance of showers and tstms early in the evening. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1218 Am Edt Tue Aug 4 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Tropical storm isaias will bring dangerous marine conditions to the local area from late tonight through Tuesday. Please see the advisories from the national hurricane center for the latest information on isaias. Improving marine conditions are expected from the middle to latter part of the week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norfolk, VA
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location: 36.92, -76.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 040022 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 822 PM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. Tropical cyclone Isaias impacts the region later tonight into Tuesday afternoon. This will bring heavy rain, breezy to windy conditions, and a threat of tornadoes toward the coast. More typical summer-like conditions return by the middle of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 800 PM EDT Monday .

PRE (predesessor rain event) underway across the Piedmont where nmrs shwrs/tstrms have produced (locally) 1-2 inches of rain over the past few hrs. This leading trplcl moisture is setting the stage for what will be a rather messy morning commute up the I95 corridor. May see a some decrease in intensity over the next few hrs with areal coverage rapidly increasing after 06Z as the systm moves north across ern NC. Some minor adjustments may to the grids this eve but overall there are in good shape. Lows in the mid 60s to mid 70s.

Note . already noting some TORs coming out of ILM from the outer bands ahead of the low. Expect the conditions for trplcl TORs to increase across sern VA/ern nc after midnite based on current model data.

PVS DSCN:

Current wv imagery places a deep trough in vicinity of the Great Lakes and Mississippi Valley, with a ridge over the subtropical wrn Atlantic. Meanwhile, TS Isaias is located about 115mi S of Charleston, SC moving nwd about 13mph. An initial band of showers/tstms has lifted nwd through the region this aftn producing brief heavy rain and wind gusts of 35-40mph. There is a lull S of this band, with additional showers/tstms crossing the Albemarle Sound and moving into NE NC as of 330pm. Temperatures are largely in the upper 70s to low 80s in the wake of the pcpn, but highs did reach the mid 80s to around 90F prior to the rain, and RIC has hit 90F once again. Occasional showers/tstms are expected to progress through the area this evening producing brief heavy rain.

TS Isaias is expected to make landfall along the nrn SC coast later this evening into the early overnight hours, and then increase in speed and turn NNE as it feels the effect of the trough to the W. A 130-140kt upper jet at 200mb is forecast to develop over the St. Lawrence Valley by Tuesday morning placing the Mid-Atlantic region in the RRQ of the jet. This will result in strong forcing for ascent and will combine with rich tropical moisture bringing a threat for heavy rainfall/flooding to the region. The heaviest rain should shift to left of track, so the rain threat is more inland with lesser amounts of rain toward the immediate coast. The Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for the same locations. Forecast amounts remain 3-6" with locally higher amounts for areas in the FF Watch. 03/12z HREF does have a signal that some of this rain could fall on the order of 3hrs, with the potential for some rainfall rates greater than 1" an hour. WPC has a large portion of the area in a moderate risk for excessive rainfall. Breezy to windy conditions develop later tonight into Tuesday morning, with the latest data suggesting the strongest wind occurs as some drier air mixes in on the srn flank of the low. Wind gusts of 55-70mph are possible E of I- 95 toward the coast. Strong low-level shear and SRH are expected E of the track bringing a tornado potential initially to NE NC/SE VA later tonight and spreading nwd along the coast Tuesday. The tornado potential and the extent will be dependent on how much destabilization is able to occur E of the track along with the location of any surface boundaries. SPC has the area from NE NC/SE VA to the Delmarva in a slight risk for severe weather.

Conditions improve from SW-NE later Tuesday aftn. Forecast highs are generally in the low/mid 80s after morning lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Monday .

Conditions settle down Tuesday night through Thursday as Isaias moves well NE of the region. There is a chc of diurnal showers/tstms Wednesday/Thursday aftn. Seasonal temperatures with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s Tuesday/Wednesday night, followed by highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Wednesday/Thursday.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 400 PM EDT Monday .

Going with a blend of the 12Z/03 GFS and 12Z/03 ECMWF for the extended period. Until a shortwave trough to the west of the area Thu night, combined with a lingering frontal boundary over ESE portions of the region, move off the coast, there will continue to be chc to likely PoPs from Thu night through Sat across much of the CWA. Only slight to small chc PoPs for Sat night into Mon morning, as high pressure tries to build in from the NW or N. Increasing chances again Mon aftn into Mon evening, esply inland/Piedmont locations. Highs will range from the mid 80s to near 90 through the period, with lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s.

AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 800 PM EDT Monday .

Rain and wind increase after 06Z as TC Isaias apprchs from the south. Look for CIGS to lower to MVFR with lcl IFR CIGS and VSBYS in R+. SE winds ahead of the low gust btwn 40-60 kts across coastal TAF sites then switch to the SW and gust btwn 30-40 kts behind it. The rain ends by 18Z Wed with BKN (VFR) CU during the aftrn along with diminishing winds.

OUTLOOK . Conditions transition back to more diurnal showers/tstms Wednesday through Saturday.

MARINE. As of 400 PM EDT Monday .

Late this afternoon, Tropical Storm Isaias was moving northward off the coast of GA, with high pressure well offshore of the Mid- Atlantic coast. Winds are generally S-SW at 5-15 kt with seas of ~3 ft and waves of 1-2 ft on the bay. Isaias will significantly impact the area waters from late tonight-Tuesday. Tropical Storm Warnings remain in effect for all marine zones.

Fairly high confidence forecast with respect to Isaias, as models are now in very good agreement with respect to timing. In general, the 12z/03 models (especially some of the CAMs) continue to show a modest increase in strength over the next 12-24 hours vs the previous forecast, resulting in a slightly stronger wind field for our area. The latest NHC track is faster and shows Isaias making landfall just S of the NC/SC border late this evening before moving to just east of Raleigh. Isaias will likely track NNE just to the west of the Chesapeake Bay on Tuesday morning before quickly exiting to the N/NE Tue afternoon. Isaias is expected to be a strong tropical storm as it tracks through the area, so TS Warnings remain in effect for the ocean, bay, Currituck Sound, and all of the rivers. Still looks like the most likely timing for tropical storm conditions will be from around 2 AM through 2 PM Tuesday. The earliest onset of TS conditions will be across srn marine zones, with the latest onset of TS conditions occurring across nrn marine zones. There is the potential for sustained winds of 40-50 kt with gusts up to 60-65 kt during this timeframe. The strongest winds will generally be from the S or SE across the marine area (E of the center of Isaias). However, there are some hints that there will be a brief (~1 hour) period of 50-65 kt gusts as winds turn to the west on the back side of Isaias at the tail end of the event as drier air mixes into the boundary layer. This will be something to watch for closely (and has been modeled by a good portion of the CAMs). Given that Isaias will be gaining forward speed as it tracks through the area, tropical storm conditions will last no more than 6-8 hours or so at any given location. Dangerous waves/seas (could see seas of 12- 15 ft w/ waves of 6-9 ft on the bay) are expected through the duration of tropical storm conditions. Seas quickly decrease Tue evening in the wake of Isaias. Sub-SCA conditions return on Wed and are expected to last through Fri. Please see the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center concerning the track of Hurricane Isaias.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 530 PM EDT Monday .

Tidal flooding is expected across parts of the area on Tuesday as TS Isaias tracks NNE through the area. Strong S to SE winds for a 6-8 hour period will result in rapidly rising water levels across the mid/upper Ches Bay (especially the bayside of the Lower MD Ern Shore) and also in areas on the north side of the Albemarle/Currituck Sounds. In coordination with neighboring offices, Coastal Flood Watches have been upgraded to warnings on the east side of the Ches Bay (from Dorchester County S to Northampton VA). A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for areas on the north side of the Albemarle Sound, where moderate to potentially major tidal flooding is expected on Tue. Watches have been converted to advisories across the VA Northern Neck where minor tidal flooding is expected on Tuesday.

Moderate coastal flooding is expected on the bayside of the Lower Eastern Shore (highest confidence from Cambridge to Crisfield, with lesser confidence on the bayside of Accomack/Northampton Counties). It is possible (but not the most likely scenario) that sites on the bayside of the Lower MD Eastern Shore (mainly Cambridge/Bishop's Head) could crest around major flood thresholds during Tuesday's high tide. This could happen if there is a short period of very strong westerly winds on the tail end of the storm that act to push water toward the bay side of the Lower MD Ern Shore. The latest guidance still shows potential for water to be trapped in the northern Ches Bay, but has backed off on water levels somewhat. The forecast will show minor flooding on the bayside of the Lower Ern Shore early Wed AM. Will run the warning for the Ern Shore through 06z Wed for now, but may cancel early if things continue to trend downward.

CLIMATE. As of 800 PM EDT Monday .

RIC official had a high temperature of 90F Mon which made it 25 consecutive days of 90+F temperatures (the 2nd longest streak in the period of record). The longest streak on record is 27 days in 1995.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MDZ021>023. Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ021>025. Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for MDZ021>023. NC . Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for NCZ012>014-030. Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. VA . Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for VAZ048-060>062- 064>069-075>090-092-093-096-509>524. Tropical Storm Warning for VAZ064-075>090-092-093-095>100- 511>525. Coastal Flood Warning from 5 AM Tuesday to 2 AM EDT Wednesday for VAZ099-100. Coastal Flood Warning from 2 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Advisory from 5 AM to 8 PM EDT Tuesday for VAZ075-077. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM . AJZ/MPR SHORT TERM . AJZ/ALB LONG TERM . TMG AVIATION . AJZ/MPR MARINE . ERI TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44087 7 mi43 min 80°F1 ft
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 8 mi57 min 82°F1015.1 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 8 mi51 min WSW 8.9 G 12 77°F 1014.2 hPa
CHBV2 9 mi57 min SSE 11 G 13 79°F 1014.2 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 9 mi51 min SSE 8.9 G 12 79°F 1015.3 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 9 mi51 min W 4.1 G 7 76°F 1014.8 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 12 mi51 min SE 4.1 G 7 78°F 84°F1014.5 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 13 mi57 min WNW 7 G 8 75°F 1015.3 hPa
44072 20 mi39 min SW 16 G 18 80°F 83°F1 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi51 min ESE 8.9 G 13 82°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 24 mi133 min 77°F3 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi51 min SE 13 G 15 81°F 1015.5 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi51 min W 4.1 G 8 74°F 84°F1015 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 44 mi51 min E 8 G 9.9 1016.2 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 44 mi69 min N 1.9 74°F 1017 hPa73°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi33 min ESE 9.7 G 12 84°F1017.7 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA2 mi48 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain81°F77°F88%1014.7 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA6 mi40 minN 010.00 miLight Rain78°F73°F87%1015.3 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA10 mi43 minSE 910.00 miFair80°F75°F87%1014.9 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA15 mi1.7 hrsESE 610.00 miA Few Clouds79°F78°F100%1016.5 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA19 mi44 minE 47.00 miRain74°F72°F94%1014.9 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA23 mi45 minN 31.75 miHeavy Rain76°F71°F85%1015.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORF

Wind History from ORF (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Little Creek (RR. Terminal), Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Little Creek (RR. Terminal)
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Tue -- 03:43 AM EDT     0.02 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:55 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:44 AM EDT     2.68 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:43 PM EDT     0.07 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 10:03 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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21.20.60.100.30.91.62.22.62.72.41.91.20.60.20.10.40.91.72.42.932.9

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
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Tue -- 12:39 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:04 AM EDT     -1.34 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:12 AM EDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 06:54 AM EDT     Moonset
Tue -- 07:10 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 09:24 AM EDT     0.66 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 12:12 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 04:00 PM EDT     -1.35 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 07:00 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 08:07 PM EDT     Sunset
Tue -- 09:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tue -- 09:47 PM EDT     1.10 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.3-0.2-0.7-1.2-1.3-1.2-0.7-0.10.40.60.60.40.1-0.3-0.8-1.2-1.4-1.2-0.7-00.611.10.9

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (0,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.