Sunday, July25, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Norfolk, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:04AMSunset 8:19PM Sunday July 25, 2021 10:47 AM EDT (14:47 UTC) Moonrise 8:53PMMoonset 6:29AM Illumination 99% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 16 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ634 Chesapeake Bay From Little Creek Va To Cape Henry Va Including The Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel- 1020 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
Rest of today..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Tonight..SW winds 15 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Mon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely in the afternoon.
Mon night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers and tstms likely.
Tue..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Tue night..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw late. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed..SW winds 5 kt, becoming se in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1020 Am Edt Sun Jul 25 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure moves offshore today. A cold front washes out over the region early this week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Norfolk, VA
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location: 36.92, -76.18     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 251032 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 632 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain offshore for the remainder of the weekend, allowing for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms today. A weak cold front crosses the most of the area on Monday, resulting in scattered numerous thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 630 AM EDT Sunday .

Morning wx analysis shows upper ridging anchored over the central/srn Plains, while NW flow aloft continues to prevail over the Mid-Atlantic. Surface high pressure has shifted well offshore of the local area. A shortwave aloft is tracking to our E-ESE over New England and this feature was responsible for the scattered showers (w/ brief heavy rain) that have just moved offshore of the Atlantic coast of MD. Elsewhere, it is mainly dry with S-SSW winds and temperatures mainly in the upper 60s-low 70s. Will keep slight chc- chc PoPs over the Lower Ern Shore through 12z.

It will be noticeably warmer (and a bit more humid) today than it has been during the past few days due to increasing low level SSW flow, as upper ridging continues to build over the central/srn Plains. Dry wx is expected from ~8 AM through early-mid aftn. Isolated to widely scattered tstms are progged to initially develop to our NW along a sfc trough this aftn and move into our NW zones (mainly from Farmville to Tappahannock and NW) by late aftn/early evening. Rain chances spread E-SE to northern neck and eastern shore by 00z . with even a slight chc of a tstm as far SE as the Richmond metro). Highs today mainly upper 80s to low 90s. While widespread severe wx is not expected, cannot rule out a couple near-severe wind gusts that down a few trees across our far NW zones from late aftn- evening. Effective shear values will be a bit less than they were yesterday, given sfc winds out of the SSW instead of the SE. The low- end severe threat should diminish by 9-11 PM with the loss of surface heating. However, an approaching cold front and a nocturnal southwesterly ~30kt 925mb jet may be enough to keep at least isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) going (mainly N of I-64 and E of I-95) through much of the night. Have 15-30% PoPs through 12z Mon to account for this. Early morning lows Monday AM range from the upper 60s to low/mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

For Monday, a WNW-NW flow aloft continues to prevail across the region as the above mentioned weak cold front continues to approach from the NW and drops through the local area late in the day and overnight into Tue morning. Meanwhile, deep-layer moisture continues to increase across the area, with PW values rising to 2.0-2.4" across the SE two-thirds of the area by Monday aftn. In addition, a shortwave trough aloft is progged to cross the area late Monday into Monday night.

Instability parameters become fairly impressive by 18z Mon (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) as temperatures rise to around 90F with low-mid 70s dew points. However, the models continue to forecast only minimal shear. Nevertheless, suspect that there will be some chance for at least isolated strong to severe storms (main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts) Mon aftn/evening. It appears the greater threat may be locally heavy rain/flooding given the above mentioned PWs and also the relatively slow expected motion (MBE velocities are only 10-15kt from Mon aftn-Mon evening as per 00z NAM/GFS). Greatest threat for localized flooding appears to be across southern VA and into NE NC (main concern would be the urban areas of Hampton Roads given relatively high FFGs elsewhere). Even though it is at the end of its forecast period (48-h), it is worth noting that the 00z HREF has 30-50% probabilities of 3"/3 hours in these areas from 21z Mon-00z Tue. WPC has maintained a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall from Mon-Mon night across most of the area. Have nudged the highest PoPs (60-70% . from 18z Mon-06z Tue) a bit to the south given the trend in the 00z/25 guidance. Have chc PoPs (mainly during the aftn/evening) across nrn zones.

Tstms will be most numerous during the aftn/evening (with the highest coverage along and S of I-64). These tstms are progged to gradually move SE during the evening and overnight. Convection will wane/exit the area during the latter part of Mon night. Forecast highs Mon are in the upper 80s to around 90F, with lows in the upper 60s-low 70s Monday night. The front stalls/weakens across NC on Tue. Will keep high chc PoPs across the south Tue aftn, with a slight chc of aftn tstms into most of central/E-central VA. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

The middle to late portion of this week will be characterized by near to slightly above normal temperatures and seasonally moderate levels of humidity, as the heat ridge remains anchored in place across the central CONUS with continued W-NW flow aloft across the local area. Timing of rain chances in this type of pattern will be dependent on timing and location of numerous shortwave disturbances in the flow aloft (and a cold front that potentially approaches by late next week). Overall, will have only 10-20 PoPs Wed-Thu, with PoPs 20-30% for Fri as the next cold front moves through, with 10-20% PoPs Sat. The timing of the front is somewhat uncertain so a faster solution (like the 00z GFS/GEM) could lead to higher PoPs than currently forecast as early as Thu evening/Thu night. The slower ECMWF solution would imply that the highest PoPs hold off until Fri aftn. Summerlike heat and humidity is expected with highs 90-95F and lows mainly 70-75F Wed-Fri. Sat looks a little cooler with less humidity at this time.

AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 630 AM EDT Sunday .

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period with SSW-SW winds increasing to 9-13kt with gusts to around 20kt by afternoon. Otherwise, any isolated showers/tstms are expected to remain NW of RIC and SBY this afternoon, but could approach SBY (and even RIC) by this evening. However, PoPs are only 20-30% at RIC/SBY this evening, so will hold off on mentioning pcpn in the TAFs. Isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) are possible tonight at SBY, while PoPs are no higher than 20% at the VA/NC terminals. Prevailing conditions likely remain VFR through tonight.

Outlook . The chc for afternoon/evening showers/tstms increases to 30-60% on Monday, as moisture pools ahead of an approaching frontal system. Mainly VFR conditions Tuesday with isolated to widely scattered showers and tstms potentially bringing brief degraded flight conditions in the afternoon and evening. The chc for afternoon and evening showers and tstms is 20% or less by Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE. As of 300 AM EDT Sunday .

Try as I might, can't seem to find gusts aoa 20 kts across the Ches Bay except from Tangier Isl on north. Latest model guid not as bullish with 20 kt gusts either, so dropped the SCA on the Bay south of Windmill Point. Will leave the SCA up for ANZ603 though.

Minimal SCA's cont for the nrn cstl waters, expecting gusts arnd 25 kts and 4-5 ft seas later today/tonite.

Diminishing winds Mon as the pressure gradient relaxes. A weak front approaches then crosses the region Mon aftrn into Tues. The boundary lingers/washes out just south of the local area Tues into Wed. Sub- SCA conditions expected thru mid week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630.

SYNOPSIS . ERI/LKB NEAR TERM . ERI SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . ERI MARINE . MPR


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44087 7 mi52 min 80°F2 ft
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 8 mi48 min SSW 15 G 22 78°F 1016.8 hPa (+0.0)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 8 mi48 min 80°F1017 hPa (+0.0)
CHBV2 9 mi48 min SW 13 G 16 79°F 1016 hPa (+0.0)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 9 mi48 min SSW 7 G 16 79°F 1017.2 hPa (+0.0)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 9 mi48 min SSW 11 G 15 79°F 1016.8 hPa (+0.0)
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 12 mi48 min SW 9.9 G 14 79°F 81°F1016.8 hPa (+0.0)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 13 mi48 min SW 15 G 19 77°F 1017 hPa (+0.0)
44072 20 mi30 min SW 14 G 16 76°F 80°F2 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 20 mi48 min SSW 11 G 14 77°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 24 mi52 min 76°F2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 24 mi48 min SW 17 G 20 78°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 26 mi48 min SSW 9.9 G 16 77°F 81°F1016 hPa (+0.0)
44041 - Jamestown, VA 37 mi30 min S 7.8 G 12 76°F 1016.4 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 44 mi48 min SSW 19 G 21 1017 hPa (+0.3)
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 44 mi78 min SSW 1 75°F 1017 hPa67°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 45 mi30 min SW 16 G 19 76°F 81°F3 ft1016.3 hPa

Wind History for Chesapeake Bay Bridge Tunnel, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA2 mi57 minSW 1710.00 miFair84°F66°F55%1016.7 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA6 mi49 minSW 710.00 miMostly Cloudy81°F66°F61%1017.3 hPa
Virginia Beach, Oceana, Naval Air Station, VA10 mi52 minSW 1410.00 miPartly Cloudy82°F67°F60%1017.2 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA15 mi52 minSSW 1010.00 miPartly Cloudy77°F69°F76%1017.9 hPa
Chesapeake, Chesapeake Municipal Airport, VA19 mi53 minSSW 107.00 miMostly Cloudy78°F68°F71%1017.6 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA23 mi54 minSW 910.00 miPartly Cloudy76°F67°F74%1016.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KORF

Wind History from ORF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrN4NE6N7SE5E13SE12S9SE8S12S12
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S8S6S6S6S6S7S6S7S7SW7SW12S12SW14SW17
1 day agoN6N73N8NE6NE6NE7NE8NE6E43CalmS3SW3SW4SW3CalmCalmCalmCalmW33E3NE4
2 days agoNE8NE9N11N10
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N9N11NE11NE12NE6NE4NE4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmSW3SW4CalmW4W3CalmNW3

Tide / Current Tables for Little Creek (RR. Terminal), Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Little Creek (RR. Terminal)
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Sun -- 04:07 AM EDT     -0.22 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 06:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:29 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 10:09 AM EDT     2.76 feet High Tide
Sun -- 04:09 PM EDT     -0.17 feet Low Tide
Sun -- 08:17 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:53 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:31 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.50.70-0.2-0.10.51.21.92.52.82.62.11.40.70.1-0.2-00.51.22.12.73.13.1

Tide / Current Tables for Chesapeake Bay Entrance, Virginia Current
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Chesapeake Bay Entrance
Click for Map
Sun -- 12:55 AM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:17 AM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 06:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sun -- 07:24 AM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 07:28 AM EDT     Moonset
Sun -- 09:43 AM EDT     0.84 knots Max Flood
Sun -- 12:37 PM EDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 04:18 PM EDT     -1.55 knots Max Ebb
Sun -- 07:20 PM EDT     0.00 knots Slack
Sun -- 08:16 PM EDT     Sunset
Sun -- 09:52 PM EDT     Moonrise
Sun -- 10:07 PM EDT     1.31 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.5-0-0.7-1.2-1.5-1.4-1-0.30.40.80.80.60.3-0.2-0.7-1.3-1.5-1.5-1-0.30.51.11.31.2

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