Friday, January22, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
La Selva Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:23PM Friday January 22, 2021 6:27 PM PST (02:27 UTC) Moonrise 12:37PMMoonset 1:55AM Illumination 73% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 224 Pm Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
.small craft advisory in effect until 9 pm pst this evening...
Tonight..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Wind waves 6 to 7 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 17 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sat..N winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sat night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds and S around 2 ft at 16 seconds.
Sun..NW winds 5 to 15 kt. Wind waves around 4 ft. W swell 3 to 5 ft at 14 seconds and W up to 2 ft at 21 seconds. A chance of rain.
Sun night..NW winds 20 to 30 kt with gusts up to 40 kt. Wind waves 7 to 8 ft. W swell 2 to 4 ft at 14 seconds and W 2 to 4 ft at 20 seconds. Rain.
Mon..NW winds 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Wind waves 5 to 6 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft at 13 seconds and W 3 to 5 ft at 18 seconds. A chance of rain.
Mon night..NW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 4 to 5 ft. W swell 6 to 8 ft at 16 seconds.
Tue..SW winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 5 to 7 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..S winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. W swell 4 to 6 ft. Rain. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 224 Pm Pst Fri Jan 22 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Post frontal showers will linger through early tonight with gusty winds. Unsettled weather will continue through much of the forecast period as a series of storms move through the region. The next one being on Sunday and into Monday. This front will be accompanied by widespread gusty winds with gale force conditions possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Another storm system is then expected mid next week. Moderate northwest swell will persist as a couple additional northwest swells arrive today and then on Sunday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near La Selva Beach, CA
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location: 36.93, -121.85     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 230159 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 559 PM PST Fri Jan 22 2021

SYNOPSIS. A significant shift in the weather pattern has arrived with widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures. After a brief break on Saturday, more widespread rainfall is expected late in the weekend with colder temperatures and lowering snow levels. Unsettled weather is likely to continue into next week with an atmospheric river arriving late Tuesday and persisting through Thursday. More unsettled weather is possible late next weekend.

DISCUSSION. as of 02:05 PM PST Friday . The storm door has been reopened today in response to the arrival of a 543dm 500mb upper low currently centered over Sonoma/Mendocino counties. This upper low is but a smaller segment of a much broader parent low draped across the western CONUS that will funnel a series of progressive storm systems into the region through the remainder of the month of January. Throughout most of the water year thus far, the moderate La Nina has performed its established role perfectly, with near text book deflection of approaching storm systems northward towards the Pacific Northwest while keeping California in the dry. That said, the current La Nina has been showing some signs of weakening over the last couple of months . and the teleconnection lag between ENSO and our regional weather may have finally come into sync as historically weak La Nina signals hold much less sway over California than do moderate signals.

Back to today's system-- a cold frontal band preceeding the core of the storm system rolled through the region very early this morning and held together better than previously modeled, bringing a wetting rain across most areas. This unexpected robustness may be a sign of other systems within this series of storm systems over the next week could also arrive stronger -- due to the supporting parent trough keeping adverse downstream ridging at bay. Cooler, more unstable air in the wake of the front has been encroaching on the region since then, and scattered to widespread rain showers nearer to the coldest, most unstable air near the core of the storm system has been kicking off weak to moderate convection on the southeast flank of the storm system. Eyeing the strength of these showers has been a little tougher than usual due to KMUX radar only returning to service within the last hour, however, GOES17 1minute mesoscale satellite imagery provided sufficient for evaluating the convective depth through visible, infrared, and other means. That said, KMUX radar has returned and shows predominately widespread weak to moderate rain showers across the entirety of the forecast area. SPC has included the Bay Area and Central Coast in a general mention of thunderstorms today which appears warranted -- an isolated thunderstorm or two, or even deeper convection without the rumble of thunder, is possible through the remainder of the day. We've had reports of heavy rain, pea size hail, mountain snow (some large flakes at Mt Hamilton and Mt Umunhum) and even a funnel cloud (near Petaluma) from these cells as they continue to deepen with the afternoon heating at the surface attempting to bubble up and overtop the colder denser unsettled air aloft. The main hazard today will remain extra slippery roadways given the recent dry stretch back to the first week of January that has allowed more motor oils to accumulate on roadways. Rain showers are forecast to taper off overnight.

Cool and dry conditions will develop on Saturday as short lived ridging develops within the broader deep parent low across the western CONUS. Expect chilly overnight lows.

The next storm system arrives Sunday into Monday and is forecast to be a rather typical mid winter system with a healthy cold frontal boundary, trailing showers, cooler air, and gusty winds. As previously mentioned, there has been a strengthening trend in the models with the upcoming storm systems and this remains true with this storm system. Forecast precipitation amounts are slightly higher with this systems versus 24 hours ago, however, forecast winds increased much more so in response. Latest thinking is now that gusty northerly winds will be more of a threat in the wake of this second storm systems frontal boundary may even necessitate a wind advisory for some, but that decision will be made tomorrow. This second storm system will bring increased precipitation accumulations relative to the first storm system. These rains are also forecast to bring widespread beneficial rainfall to the region throughout its entirety. Snow levels are also forecast to continue to drop as cooler air filters in with this storm system and will bring snow levels down to the 2000-2500 foot range in the post frontal environment, meaning trailing showers could bring snow to these lower elevations, and even an inch or few of accumulating snow fall to the higher elevations. Overall, urban areas will be looking at 1/8" to 1/2" of an inch of rainfall, with higher terrain looking at 1/2" to 1" of rainfall or snow water equivalent if it comes to that. Finally, even cooler air is forecast to advect into the region with and in the wake of this storm system and overnight lows Monday night into Tuesday morning will be rather cold by our standards, with widespread near to subfreezing temperatures away from the immediate coast. This will likely be the primarily hazard with the second storm system.

Then, forecast models are converging on the arrival of a moderate atmospheric river event later Tuesday then persisting through Thursday. SCRIPPS diagnostic tools previously only hinted at an AR1 (out of 5/weak), but has now upgraded areas from Santa Cruz southward along the Central Coast to AR2 (out of 5/moderate). This, in addition to other data, continue to show a gradual strengthening trend for the upcoming potential atmospheric river. GFS/EURO ensembles still show a degree of timing, intensity, and trajectory differences however with each run the scenario will become clearer. Ensemble members as well as the deterministic runs continue to suggest a prolonged event with a burst of heavy rainrates (0.50-0.75/hr) late Tuesday night through the day Wednesday as the storm system stalls once aligning with the Santa Cruz mountains. Precipitation totals and all the other details will likely remain in flux until we move closer to the arrival of this storm systems.

The latest thinking, which should be expected to change closer to the event, is that urban areas may see between 1.5 to 3.5" (lower amounts expected in rain shadowed valleys) of rainfall during the course of this event, while higher elevation locations could see double that. Longer term model data point towards locally higher precipitation amounts of potentially up to 8", perhaps 9-10", at orographically enhanced coastal slopes of Santa Cruz mountains and coastal Big Sur. This is where beneficial rainfall would become potentially become hazardous rainfall as recent wildfire burn scars at the CZU complex & in Monterey county may be tested against rain rate intensities that may have the ability to trigger debris flow at these locations. This is something we and others are watching extremely closely. Otherwise, these heavy rainfall amounts will likely lead to mud and rock slides across steeper terrain as well as lead to widespread nuisance type flooding near low lying areas and poorly drained areas. Other hazards will exist with the gusty winds accompanying the arrival of this potential atmospheric river that may topple trees or power lines.

Drier weather will gradually return into Friday and Saturday however the broader parent trough will remain in place. Another wet long live system may be looming by next Sunday to close out the month of January. Stay tuned as these systems come into closer focus and provide us the opportunity to share more details.

AVIATION. as of 5:59 PM PST Friday . For the 00Z TAFs. Scattered to isolated showers /VFR-MVFR/ tonight, clearing late tonight and early Saturday morning resulting in patchy fog /VLIFR-IFR/. VFR conditions Saturday.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR tempo MVFR ceiling with isolated showers ending tonight. Northwest to west wind 5 to 10 knots tonight and west wind 10 to 15 knots Saturday afternoon.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . VFR-MVFR ceilings with scattered to isolated showers tonight. VFR conditions Saturday. Northwest to west winds 10 knots diminishing and becoming mainly light east to southeast tonight. West to northwest winds 5 to 15 knots Saturday.

MARINE. as of 4:30 PM PST Friday . Post frontal showers will linger through early tonight with gusty winds. Unsettled weather will continue through much of the forecast period as a series of storms move through the region. The next one being on Sunday and into Monday. This front will be accompanied by widespread gusty winds with gale force conditions possible Sunday night into Monday morning. Another storm system is then expected mid next week. Moderate northwest swell will persist as a couple additional northwest swells arrive today and then on Sunday.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. SCA . Mry Bay until 9 PM SCA . Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA . Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 9 PM SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm



PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP AVIATION: Canepa MARINE: MM

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 9 mi28 min 53°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 10 mi103 min WSW 6 51°F 1011 hPa46°F
46269 10 mi58 min 50°F 53°F6 ft
46092 - MBM1 16 mi91 min NW 12 51°F 53°F1010.8 hPa (-1.9)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 21 mi32 min 55°F4 ft
MEYC1 23 mi52 min W 5.1 G 8 50°F 1012 hPa
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 31 mi38 min NW 19 G 25 52°F 54°F13 ft1012 hPa46°F
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 31 mi32 min 55°F13 ft
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 43 mi62 min 55°F10 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 44 mi58 min WSW 4.1 G 4.1 50°F 55°F1012 hPa

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA3 mi35 minN 010.00 miMostly Cloudy48°F45°F89%1011.6 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA23 mi34 minSW 410.00 miMostly Cloudy49°F46°F90%1013.4 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA23 mi35 minW 610.00 miMostly Cloudy50°F46°F86%1012.6 hPa
Hollister, CA, CA23 mi33 minENE 310.00 miOvercast48°F45°F87%1011.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWVI

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW3CalmW3CalmW3S5S4SW5SW6S5NW6SW8W8SW3SW6CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmN3CalmNW5CalmN3CalmNW4CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm5SW5SW8SW4SW5Calm
2 days agoNE7W4NE3CalmCalmCalmN4CalmW3CalmCalmNW5W3NW4CalmE34CalmSE4SW3SW7W5CalmCalm

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge, California
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Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 05:42 AM PST     5.11 feet High Tide
Fri -- 07:15 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 12:36 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 12:58 PM PST     0.91 feet Low Tide
Fri -- 05:22 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 08:04 PM PST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.62.93.54.14.755.14.84.23.32.41.61.10.91.11.422.533.43.53.43.22.9

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
Click for Map
Fri -- 01:22 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 01:55 AM PST     Moonset
Fri -- 04:17 AM PST     0.40 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 07:12 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Fri -- 10:20 AM PST     -0.65 knots Max Ebb
Fri -- 12:37 PM PST     Moonrise
Fri -- 02:39 PM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 05:23 PM PST     Sunset
Fri -- 05:45 PM PST     0.47 knots Max Flood
Fri -- 08:42 PM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Fri -- 10:48 PM PST     -0.29 knots Max Ebb
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.2-0.10.10.30.40.40.30.1-0.2-0.5-0.6-0.6-0.5-0.4-0.20.10.30.40.50.40.2-0.1-0.2-0.3

Weather Map
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wmap_P
GEOS Local Image of CentralWestCoast    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.