Tuesday, July27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
La Selva Beach, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone.
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:06AMSunset 8:20PM Monday July 26, 2021 11:49 PM PDT (06:49 UTC) Moonrise 9:32PMMoonset 7:49AM Illumination 91% Phase: Waning Gibbous; Moon at 18 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ535 Monterey Bay- 900 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 15 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms. Patchy fog after midnight.
Tue..W winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 14 seconds. A slight chance of showers and Thunderstorms.
Tue night..SW winds 15 to 20 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. SWell S around 2 ft at 13 seconds.
Wed..W winds 5 to 10 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft. Patchy fog.
Wed night..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft.
Thu..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves around 2 ft.
Thu night..W winds around 5 kt. Wind waves 2 to 3 ft.
Fri..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..W winds 5 to 10 kt. Wind waves 3 to 4 ft. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms. Locally lower winds and seas across sheltered portions of the bay.
PZZ500 900 Pm Pdt Mon Jul 26 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... Light to locally breezy northwest winds continue to drive the sea state at around 8 to 9 seconds along with a weak southerly swell. Wind gusts will increase Tuesday afternoon and into the evening through the golden gate gap into the san francisco bay. Locally generated steep wind waves may be hazardous for smaller vessels. Slight chance of showers and high based Thunderstorms remains over the waters through Tuesday morning. Any developing Thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and erratic winds. Chances for Thunderstorms diminish Tuesday afternoon.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near La Selva Beach, CA
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location: 36.93, -121.85     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 270619 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 1119 PM PDT Mon Jul 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Monsoon moisture has moved into our region with light shower activity today. Slight chance of showers and isolated thunderstorms continues into Tuesday morning. Long range trends remain seasonably warm and dry through the end of the month.

DISCUSSION. as of 08:59 PM PDT Monday . Currently radar shows a band of light showers beginning to move into southern Monterey County. The latest CAM's show this line continuing more west, eventually moving off shore around 1-2 AM PDT. Newest models runs have slowed things down a couple hours. High clouds and light showers should move into Monterey Bay around sunrise. Showers should reach the Bay Area by 10-11 AM PDT and the North Bay by 1-2PM PDT. The 00Z KOAK RAOB shows decent moisture above 850mbs, with PW at 1.13 inches. All of this moisture is still missing the buoyancy needed for thunderstorm activity. MU CAPE from the sounding shows 96 J/Kg with 20 CIN to overcome. This buoyancy is around -8 to -17 degrees C, which means there could be some very light and small hail with showers that have a chance to grow. Best chances to see this will be in the higher terrain. The chances for lightning are low, as model soundings still stable air around 400-300mbs (giving an EL around 25,000ft). This is another hurdle for any vertical growth updrafts seem to manage. Rain totals should be lighter, as the air below 850mbs is still very dry.

PREV DISCUSSION. as of 02:55 PM PDT Monday . Many folks have enjoyed seeing some light rain fall across the region today. It's been a long time since we've seen actual rain drops instead of just drizzle drops from marine stratus. The monsoon moisture arrived earlier today and the first wave of light showers moved across Monterey County from south to north and has continued to track northward. Isolated to scattered light showers are now in the North Bay. We have not had any reports of lightning so far, but one of our forecasters did report some small hail that briefly hit his home southeast of Marina, CA this morning. Measurable rain has generally been just a few hundredths although a few sites reported as much as 0.08". Current radar shows that the bulk of shower and lightning activity remains to our south and southeast.

So, how will the rest of today into tomorrow play out? The hi-res NAM and HRRR models are indicating that we should see a second wave of shower activity move from south to north later tonight into Tuesday morning. The difference being that the NAM illustrates a more organized line of showers while the HRRR has a more broken, disorganized wave of shower activity. From the hi- res NAM: estimated timing of that second wave starts around 8 pm tonight for southern Monterey County. This line of showers will be oriented SW to NE and should reach South Bay & East Bay after midnight (approx 2 am) then track across SF soon after. It will then start to impact the North Bay counties around 3 am and gradually track north until it exits far northern Sonoma County by Tuesday afternoon.

We are still seeing the models indicate some instability with this second wave of showers, so have kept the mention of showers and thunderstorms in the forecast. There is currently a large complex of thunderstorms straddling the southern NV and CA stateline that is producing a lot of lightning strikes . fortunately, it is also dropping good rain amounts ranging 0.25-0.75" with a few spots topping out over an inch. The models do not indicate that that complex will track directly into the Bay Area, but it does indicate that the instability is present. It will be interesting to see if the line of showers just west of that complex will carry some of that instability into our region and result in a few strikes. However, we're still viewing this event as low probability for thunderstorms. NAM is showing MUCAPE values up to 150 J/kg across our inland areas with this second wave while the showers over coastal waters might have more instability with MUCAPE peaking over 400 J/kg. Rain totals from the second wave are not expected to be super wet, likely staying under 0.10".

By Tuesday late afternoon/early evening, the excitement should be over and we will go back to a drier weather pattern. We've got a warm up in the forecast for the second half of the week with Thursday potentially being the warmest day. Coastal areas should peak in the mid 60s to mid 70s while inland spots range from the upper 70s to upper 90s. This is all thanks to a very large and broad high pressure ridge that will dominate much of the CONUS. By the weekend, that high pressure will weaken as an upper level low off the coast of Canada nudges inland and returns our region to a more marine influenced and seasonable climate.

AVIATION. as of 11:15 PM PDT Monday . For the 06z TAFs. Showers will continue to move up the Central Coast overnight with high clouds causing a cluttered view of stratus moving inland. The influence of these high clouds may also prevent some of the stratus moving into certain terminals until the late night and early morning. While these showers may offer some convection, they are not looking to lead to VCTS for the TAF sites, just VCSH. These showers will be moving north slowly, reaching the Monterey Bay in the next few hours, but not reaching the SF Bay until around 10z and even then this system could continue to slow down. Expect lowered CIGs overnight for all but the more interior terminals, such as SJC and LVK. Showers look to still linger in North Bay for mid morning, but clearing conditions will lead to widespread VFR again for Tuesday afternoon.

Vicinity of KSFO . VFR with high clouds through most of the night. Expect moments of inconsistent BKN012 CIGs around 10z with shower chances as well. Shower chances look spotty and cloud be push back into early Tuesday morning if this system keeps slowing down. Overnight winds remain westerly and mild. Expect cloud cover around the SF Bay to thin in the early to mid morning leading to VFR. Tuesday afternoon moderate northwesterly wind at SFO with peak winds around 15 kts, under mostly clear skies. These winds look to last through that evening but back off after nightfall.

KSFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay . Expect IFR and LIFR around the Monterey Bay in the late night with moments of fog and mist ahead of chances for showers. Winds become weak and variable in the late night. Cloud cover will thin in the late morning around the Monterey Bay terminals, marking a return to VFR. Winds look to remain mild through Tuesday morning, but become more moderate that afternoon.

MARINE. as of 11:17 PM PDT Monday . Light to locally breezy northwest winds continue to drive the sea state at around 8 to 9 seconds along with a weak southerly swell. Wind gusts will increase Tuesday afternoon and into the evening through the Golden Gate gap into the San Francisco Bay. Locally generated steep wind waves may be hazardous for smaller vessels. Slight chance of showers and high based thunderstorms remains over the waters through Tuesday morning. Any developing thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and erratic winds. Chances for thunderstorms diminish Tuesday afternoon.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. NONE.



PUBLIC FORECAST: Dhuyvetter AVIATION: Murdock MARINE: DK

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
MLSC1 - Moss Landing, South Harbor, CA 9 mi32 min Calm 57°F 55°F
ELXC1 - Elkhorn Slough Reserve, CA 10 mi65 min W 1 57°F 1015 hPa56°F
46269 10 mi80 min 57°F 60°F3 ft
46092 - MBM1 16 mi87 min Calm 57°F 57°F1014.4 hPa (+0.4)
46240 - Cabrillo Point, Monterey Bay, CA (158) 21 mi54 min 56°F2 ft
MEYC1 23 mi74 min N 2.9 G 2.9 57°F 1015.2 hPa
46042 - MONTEREY - 27NM West of Monterey Bay, CA 31 mi40 min Calm G 1.9 57°F 58°F1015.3 hPa
46114 - West Monterey Bay, CA 31 mi84 min 58°F5 ft
46239 - Point Sur, CA (157) 43 mi54 min 59°F4 ft
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 44 mi56 min NNW 1.9 G 4.1 62°F 1015.3 hPa

Wind History for Monterey, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Watsonville, Watsonville Municipal Airport, CA3 mi57 minN 010.00 miFair57°F56°F96%1015.3 hPa
Monterey Regional Airport, CA23 mi56 minN 010.00 miOvercast62°F56°F80%1016.4 hPa
Salinas, Salinas Municipal Airport, CA23 mi57 minNNW 310.00 miFair60°F55°F84%1016 hPa
Hollister, CA, CA23 mi55 minSSW 510.00 miFair61°F54°F77%1015.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KWVI

Wind History from WVI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmSW3CalmW3CalmCalmCalmW5CalmSW4CalmSW5W6SW7W8W85SW7W6SW6SW8W3CalmCalm
1 day agoCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3SW6SW7SW7SW9W8SW10SW9W9W6W7SW4W4CalmCalm
2 days agoCalmCalmCalmCalmN3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalm3W6W7SW9SW9SW8SW7SW8SW7SW7W5W5SW3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge, California
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Elkhorn Slough railroad bridge
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Tue -- 01:24 AM PDT     5.51 feet High Tide
Tue -- 06:08 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 07:55 AM PDT     -0.35 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 09:53 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 03:06 PM PDT     4.91 feet High Tide
Tue -- 08:17 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 08:20 PM PDT     2.26 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 10:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.15.55.44.73.52.10.8-0.1-0.4-00.71.72.83.84.64.94.74.13.32.62.32.32.73.4

Tide / Current Tables for Point Pinos, California Current
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Point Pinos
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Tue -- 12:03 AM PDT     0.59 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 02:53 AM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:03 AM PDT     -0.94 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 06:10 AM PDT     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:54 AM PDT     Moonset
Tue -- 09:55 AM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 12:55 PM PDT     0.75 knots Max Flood
Tue -- 04:13 PM PDT     -0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 06:40 PM PDT     -0.58 knots Max Ebb
Tue -- 08:18 PM PDT     Sunset
Tue -- 10:08 PM PDT     0.00 knots Slack
Tue -- 10:59 PM PDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.60.50.3-0-0.5-0.8-0.9-0.9-0.6-0.300.40.70.80.70.40.1-0.3-0.5-0.6-0.5-0.3-00.2

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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