Saturday, August15, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Smithfield, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:21AMSunset 7:58PM Saturday August 15, 2020 3:20 PM EDT (19:20 UTC) Moonrise 1:29AMMoonset 4:38PM Illumination 10% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 26 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 116 Pm Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
This afternoon..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers with a slight chance of tstms.
Tonight..E winds 10 to 15 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers.
Sun..E winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming N 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Showers in the morning, then showers likely with a chance of tstms in the afternoon.
Sun night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely with a chance of tstms in the evening, then a chance of showers after midnight.
Mon..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Mon night..NE winds 5 kt, becoming se late in the evening, then becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..NW winds 5 kt, becoming N in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Wed..SE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms in the afternoon.
Wed night..SE winds 5 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers and tstms. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 116 Pm Edt Sat Aug 15 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds northeast of the region today as tropical storm kyle tracks northeast well away from the mid-atlantic coast. Another weak area of low pressure tracks across the region later tonight into early Sunday, before pushing offshore Sunday afternoon into Sunday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Smithfield, VA
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location: 37.01, -76.57     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 151532 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1132 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020

SYNOPSIS. A trough of low pressure and a slow moving front across the area, will result in unsettled weather through the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1130 AM EDT Saturday .

Very busy with flash flooding this morning. Latest surface analysis shows a stationary boundary generally from the eastern shore through RIC to the southern piedmont. Very heavy rainfall associated with perhaps a weak wave along the boundary has set up over southside RIC metro leading to up to 9 inches in parts of Chesterfield County. Latest radar continues to show development along the boundary across the southern Piedmont and also along the boundary down the Peninsula. Latest HRRR and NAM3km have locked into heavy pcpn this afternoon into this evening along this boundary which makes sense given the current radar. As such, no changes at this time to the current flash flood watch but will need to look closely at possible expansion northward if the heaviest rain shifts north slightly. Still expecting development along a seocndary trough across southern VA into NE NC as well later this afternoon given some partial clearing helping to destabilize the atmosphere.

As of 400 AM EDT Saturday .

Numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms with heavy rain are possible later this afternoon through this evening. Early morning weather analysis reveals TS Kyle moving further off the Mid-Atlantic coast and a weak area of low pressure across the TN Valley. At the surface, a frontal boundary is expected to remain nearly stationary near the VA/NC border which will become the focus for showers or thunderstorms as we head through the day. A wedge airmass is expected to form north of the boundary across the VA Piedmont as high pressure builds down from the N between the two systems.

The main threat today into tonight will be heavy rain and flooding. With precipitable water values still at or above 2 inches, improving upper support and the boundary slowly lifting north there is good support for a significant heavy rain event. On average the region could see 1 to 3 inches of rain, however, some locations along and just north of the front could see even higher totals. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch is now in effect for roughly the southern 2/3rds of the forecast area (RIC and south). Very saturated grounds and low FFG values will increase the risk for flash flooding across the local area.

Instability will likely be lacking for northern portions of the area as the wedge airmass sets up, more of stratiform type rain is expected for these locations. Still some questions in general how far north the heaviest rain develops due to the developing wedge feature and it is possible the convective elements remain confined to far S VA/NE NC, limiting heavy rainfall further to the north. Opted to include up to RIC in the Flash Flood Watch to follow the Day 1 ERO placement of the MDT risk.

Additional Flash Flood Watches may be needed for the Eastern Shore/Northern Neck later this evening and tonight as the heavier precip pivots further to the east.

Tricky temperature forecast today due to the wedge airmass. Highs will likely only make reach the lower to mid 70s across the far NW while highs across the SE climb into the lower 80s. Lows tonight will range from the mid 60s to lower 70s.

SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 400 AM EDT Saturday .

Showers and thunderstorms are expected once again during the day (especially east) before drier conditions move in by Sunday night as the surface trough finally moves off the coast. A weak front potentially moves through the area Monday, bringing the slight chance for a shower, but do expect generally dry conditions.

Slightly cooler (but still muggy) Sunday due to the rain/cloud cover. Have highs ranging from the mid 70s across the NW to the mid/upper 80s SE on Sunday. Monday will feature highs in the middle to upper 80s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 PM EDT Thursday .

Upper level low pressure will be centered near/just east of the Hudson Bay from early-mid next week, as the associated upper trough axis digs into the Great Lakes and northeast. The upper trough axis then eventually elongates south-southwestward to the MS River Valley/GOMEX by the middle to end of next week. Unfortunately, this means the unsettled pattern will stay with us through much of next week (especially Wed-Fri). Tuesday looks to be the least active day (lowest PoPs from Tue-Fri) with PoPs in the 25-40% range. Then, expect (mainly diurnal) convection to increase in coverage once again from the middle to end of next week. As a result, have high chc PoPs for much of the area during the aftn/evening hours from Wed-Fri. Am not expecting as much heavy rainfall potential as the precipitable water values will not be as high as they are now, but localized flooding will be possible each day given wet antecedent conditions. Otherwise, temperatures should be seasonable with highs in the mid-upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 140 AM EDT Saturday .

Mainly a mix of MVFR to VFR conditions at the TAF sites to start the forecast period. Showers remain widely scattered across the area, thus the continued mention of VCSH in the forecast. Showers early this morning are fairly light, with minimal reductions in visibility expected. Generally expect the sites to linger around MVFR through much of the forecast period with the exception of SBY where VFR likely prevails through midday. A slow moving boundary likely stalls near the VA/NC border later today with the potential for heavier rainfall and MVFR to IFR north of this boundary in any heavier showers. Northeast winds between 5-10 knots will continue through the period.

Outlook: Numerous showers/thunderstorms continue Saturday night as deep moisture continues to move along the surface trough/cold front. Sub-VFR conditions will be possible for the remainder of the weekend.

MARINE. As of 400 AM EDT Saturday .

High pressure is centered over the Saint Lawrence Valley early this morning, with a stationary front located over NC. Meanwhile, TS Kyle is tracking ENE well off the Mid-Atlantic coast. The wind is NE and ranges from 10-15kt N to 5-10kt S. Seas range from 2-3ft S to 3-4ft N. High pressure remains anchored well NE of the region today into tonight as an area of low pressure slowly tracks along the stationary front across NC. A NE wind has the potential to increase to 15-20kt for the ocean N of Parramore Is. and the Bay N of New Point Comfort this aftn/evening. Seas build to 4-5ft today N of Chincoteague, and are expected to remain 4-5ft and possibly up to 5-6ft through at least Sunday night. Therefore, the SCA has been extended through 6 am Monday. An SCA has not been issued for the Bay N of New Point Comfort at this time given that the duration may be less than 3hrs. The pressure gradient slackens later tonight into Sunday morning as the low tracks across the Mid- Atlantic coast. The pressure gradient tightens again Sunday aftn/Sunday night with the wind becoming N/NW 10-15kt. Seas are expected to gradually subside to 3-4ft early next week. Weak high pressure is expected to build into the area by Monday and Tuesday, and then slide offshore Wednesday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032- 102. VA . Flash Flood Watch through this evening for VAZ060-061-065>069- 079>084-086>090-092-093-095>098-513>516-523>525. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB/MRD SHORT TERM . AJB LONG TERM . ERI/JDM AVIATION . AJB MARINE . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 8 mi51 min E 17 G 23 78°F 1011.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 14 mi51 min 82°F1011.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 14 mi51 min E 19 G 22 77°F 1010.6 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 15 mi51 min E 15 G 18 79°F 1011.2 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 16 mi51 min E 22 G 24 76°F 82°F1012.1 hPa
44072 21 mi21 min SE 19 G 23 76°F 83°F3 ft
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 21 mi51 min ESE 6 G 15 80°F 82°F1011.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 21 mi51 min E 21 G 25 75°F 1012.8 hPa
44087 22 mi25 min 83°F3 ft
CHBV2 26 mi51 min E 14 G 19 78°F 1011 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 29 mi51 min ENE 2.9 74°F 1013 hPa73°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 30 mi51 min E 21 G 22 76°F 1012.2 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 33 mi51 min E 14 G 22 79°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 42 mi21 min NE 18 G 23 78°F 83°F2 ft1015.1 hPa (-1.1)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi55 min 79°F4 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 47 mi51 min ENE 18 G 21 1013.5 hPa

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA9 mi25 minE 10 G 1610.00 miLight Drizzle75°F73°F95%1011.1 hPa
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA10 mi27 minENE 15 G 214.00 miRain77°F72°F85%1011.5 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA13 mi85 minENE 100.63 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist75°F74°F100%1013.1 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA16 mi22 minE 15 G 2410.00 miOvercast80°F72°F76%1011.7 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA18 mi26 minENE 4 G 162.50 miMostly Cloudy75°F75°F100%1011.8 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi30 minE 11 G 2010.00 miMostly Cloudy80°F73°F82%1011.1 hPa
Wakefield Municipal Airport, VA23 mi27 minVar 41.75 miRain Fog/Mist76°F73°F91%1011 hPa
Suffolk, Suffolk Municipal Airport, VA23 mi26 minENE 80.75 miThunderstorm Heavy Rain76°F75°F95%1011.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFAF

Wind History from FAF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hr4E5CalmCalmN4NE3E6CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmE3E3NE6NE4E6E7E5E8E10
G16
1 day agoE5NE4E5--E4E3CalmN5CalmSE3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNE3N4N4N5N4N4CalmNE4Calm
2 days agoW3SE9CalmSE5N6CalmNE3E4SE3S3CalmCalmS4CalmCalmSE3SE3SE5S4S5NE8E63N7

Tide / Current Tables for Smithfield, Pagan River, James River, Virginia
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Smithfield
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:14 AM EDT     0.72 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:28 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:06 AM EDT     2.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:58 PM EDT     0.58 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:38 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:57 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 08:34 PM EDT     3.28 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.40.90.70.81.11.622.42.62.42.11.61.10.70.60.71.21.82.42.93.23.332.5

Tide / Current Tables for Huntington Park, James River, Virginia
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Huntington Park
Click for Map
Sat -- 01:30 AM EDT     0.66 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:27 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 06:23 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:17 AM EDT     2.37 feet High Tide
Sat -- 01:14 PM EDT     0.53 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 05:37 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:45 PM EDT     3.05 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.90.70.70.91.31.82.22.42.321.61.10.70.50.611.52.12.6332.82.41.8

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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Disclaimer:
The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.