Wednesday, September30, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Newport News, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:59AMSunset 6:51PM Wednesday September 30, 2020 12:29 AM EDT (04:29 UTC) Moonrise 5:43PMMoonset 4:39AM Illumination 96% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 950 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Tonight..S winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Waves around 2 ft. Showers likely early in the evening. Showers in the late evening and overnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Wed..W winds 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. A chance of showers in the morning.
Wed night..SW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Thu..SW winds 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Thu night..S winds 5 kt, becoming W late. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 10 kt, diminishing to 5 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. Winds and waves higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 950 Pm Edt Tue Sep 29 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure moves through the region this evening through tonight, with a cold front crossing the mid-atlantic waters after midnight. Another cold front crosses the coast Thursday night. High pressure builds across the area into the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Newport News, VA
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location: 37.08, -76.53     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 292335 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 735 PM EDT Tue Sep 29 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front crosses the area tonight. Drier conditions return by Wednesday and Thursday. Another cold front crosses the area Thursday night into Friday, with cool and dry conditions expected for the first part of the weekend.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday .

Front and assctd line of convection crossing the Piedmont and will cross the 95 corridor over the next 1-3 hrs, then head towards the coast by midnight. Nothing severe reported thru this writing. CAMS cont to show a broken line of convective elements as they move east. Data also showing the front picking up speed towards the coast by midnite as well. Decent area of rain progged behind it for a few hrs before tapering off to some ligt shwrs across the west after midnite. Locally hvy downpours and some minor flooding issues are still possible. Lows in the lwr 50s nw to lwr 60s se.

PVS DSCN: Late afternoon wx analysis reveals a deep upper trough stretching from the Hudson bay south to the Gulf Coast that continues to propagate to the east. There is a well-defined shortwave moving ENE toward the OH Valley. Sfc low pressure is centered over Ontario, with a cold front extending to the piedmont of VA/NC (west of the CWA) and all the way down to the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. A secondary area of low pressure is starting to develop from south- central VA to nrn SC (to our SW). The main swath of pcpn associated with the front is still a few counties west of the CWA but is progged to reach the wrn CWA border by 6 PM. Scattered to numerous showers (w/ isolated lightning strikes) continue across ern VA, NE NC, and the Lower Ern Shore. These showers over ern portions of the CWA will likely continue for the next few hours, but may diminish some before the main area of pcpn (associated w/ the cold front) approaches. There have been localized reports of 1-2" of rain across ern VA/NE NC today, but areal average amounts have been closer to 0.5".

The aforementioned secondary low becomes the main sfc low which will pass across the local area from this evening (W of I-95) to the coast (later this evening/overnight). This period will be when the best combination of stronger lift and deeper moisture affects the region with a more widespread heavy rainfall. The aforementioned cold front is expected to enter far wrn portions of the area by ~6 PM, and will quickly move to the east (likely moving offshore of the CWA by 2-3 AM). In addition, SPC has expanded the marginal risk of severe wx to include all of the CWA (except the far NE). Still think that the best chc of severe wx will be across SE VA/NE NC, where a south-southwesterly low level (950-850 mb) jet expected to increase to 40-50 kt by mid-late evening. Any of the storms along/just ahead of the front will be capable of producing isolated strong (but mainly sub-severe) wind gusts that will likely result in a few downed trees (especially given the wet antecedent conditions). There is also a minimal (but nonzero) tornado risk given strong shear and potentially some local backing of the low level wind fields given the sfc low development over the interior Carolinas. The most likely spot for a brief, spin-up tornado to occur is in SE VA/NE NC. The severe wx threat will end after the front crosses the area.

PoPs will increase to 90-100% all zones at some point from 22z through 03z (from W to E), aided by strong lift from an impressive ~160-180 kt upper-level jet streak to our NNW (on the E side of the trough). Our area will be situated in the RRQ of the aforementioned jet streak (which is one of the regions favorable for large-scale ascent) during this timeframe. Given PWAT values in excess of 1.75" in most areas along with a nearly unidirectional S flow there will be training storms and the threat for flooding. At this point, the more progressive nature of the system as a whole will lead to additional QPF amounts that will avg 1 to 2" across the area rather than the 3-4" the models suggested 36-48 hrs ago. Generally, the highest QPF is in the E/SE, but localized amounts in excess of 2" will possible just about anywhere in the CWA. There will likely be some urban/poor drainage flooding this evening-tonight (especially across SE VA/NE NC). A few instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, but am not expecting the flash flood threat to be widespread enough to warrant a watch. PoPs rapidly diminish after 5- 6 AM with just slight chc-chc PoPs near the coast by 12z Wed.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

High pressure builds over the Gulf coast states on Wed in the wake of the front, and the flow at the sfc becomes more WSW. This will lead to clearing skies/dry conditions. Will continue to go a couple of degrees higher than the blends for highs Wed given sunny skies/decent WSW flow. Expect mainly dry wx, cooler conditions, and lower humidity to continue through much of Thu before a secondary cold front crosses the area late Thu-Thu night. Aloft, a shortwave trough will approach the area late Thu and track near or just N of the area on Fri. There is a low (15-30%) chc of showers across mainly the nrn two-thirds of the area Thu aftn/spreading E Thu night as the secondary front approaches. 15-30% PoPs for showers continue through 18z Fri before pcpn chances end by evening (as the shortwave trough exits the area).

Forecast highs on Wed are generally in the low to mid 70s. Low temps Wednesday night will range from near 50F NW to the upper 50s close to the coast. Highs Thu in the upper 70s SE to the lower-mid 70s NW. Lows Thu night range from near 50F NW to around 60F SE. Cooler behind the front on Fri with highs mainly in the mid 60s-around 70F.

LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

A broad trough aloft will be dominant from ern Canada to the ern CONUS through the medium range period . resulting in mainly dry and cool wx through at least the weekend. High pressure builds toward the local area Fri night . allowing for mainly clear/cool conditions with lows in the 40s over much of the local area, with 50s along the coast. The high is progged to settle over the region on Sat with mainly sunny skies and cool temperatures with highs of 65-70F. Continued cool Sat night with lows in the 40s over much of the interior again, with 50s at the coast.

Models diverge in their solutions for the latter part of the medium range period (late Sun-Tue). The models remain in agreement with respect to persistent ridging off the SE CONUS coast. However, there are notable disagreements with respect to the evolution of of a sharpening upstream shortwave trough that is progged to track from the central CONUS eastward to the Mid-Atlantic region from Sunday- early next week. The GFS is faster and more progressive with the shortwave and forecasts it to remain an open wave (w/ limited moisture) as it crosses the local area on Mon. The ECMWF forms it into an upper low near the MS River Valley Sun night and tracks it ENE into the OH Valley by Mon PM before finally tracking directly to our N Monday night. The ECMWF also has a stronger surface low nearby on Mon/Mon night as well, with much more in the way of moisture/rain in the area than the GFS. Regardless, Sun will likely remain dry (except across SE VA/NE NC late in the day). For now, will have slight chc-chc PoPs from Sun night-Mon night to account for the uncertainty. Will still not go anywhere near as wet as the ECMWF at this point, but will continue to monitor model trends in the coming days. Highs Sun/Mon mainly in the upper 60s-low 70s, with overnight lows generally in the 50s (w/ upper 40s NW).

AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 730 PM EDT Tuesday .

Cold front and assctd line of convection now moving east across the Piedmont and should apprch RIC by 01Z. Shwrs were sct out ahead of it in the warm/humid airmass with little if any thunder. CIGS mainly VFR along the coast with IFR/MVFR well inland. Expect CIGS to quickly lower (IFR most areas by midnite) once the front and pcpn arrive over the next svrl hrs. Only place thunder was added was RIC (per current radar trends). VSBYS will also lower to IFR in any hvy downpours and areas of rain behing the bndry.

The front is progged to clr the coast by morning with rapid clearing behind it. Look for CIGS to quickly improve to VFR Wed morning. Outlook.. VFR conditions through Thu. Another front crosses the area Thu night-Fri AM (bringing a low chc of SHRAs). Dry/VFR Fri evening through Sunday AM.

MARINE. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

A strong cold front is approaching from the west this aftn, with an area of low pressure developing along the boundary. The wind is S 10-15kt this aftn, with seas of 3-4ft. The pressure gradient tightens late this aftn into early evening as the cold front continues to approach from the W and as the low tracks NNE along the boundary. The wind is expected to become SSE 15-25kt, with a few gusts to ~30kt over the ocean. The cold front is expected to cross the coast late this evening into the early overnight hours. The wind is expected to shift to NW 15-25kt with a surge immediately behind the front. The wind may actually diminish for a few hours, then become WNW 15-20kt around sunrise Wednesday. Seas build to 4-5ft S to 5-7ft N tonight, with 2-3ft waves in the Bay. High pressure builds across the Southeast Wednesday and the wind will diminish to 10-15kt and gradually become WSW. Seas subside to 2-3ft S by aftn, and mainly 3-4ft N, with some seas lingering ~5ft out near 20nm. SCAs for the Bay run through 10am Wednesday, through 7am Wednesday for the Sound, and ending from S to N for the ocean later Wednesday morning through early evening. The rivers are generally expected to have sub-SCA conditions, with the exception of a brief period of a NW wind of 15-20kt immediately behind the front.

High pressure slides off the Southeast coast Wednesday night and Thursday with the wind becoming SW 10-15kt Wednesday night into Thursday morning, then light and sea-breeze dominated for a period of time Thursday aftn. Another cold front approaches from the W Thursday evening, and slides across the coast Thursday night. The wind wind is forecast to become NNW 15-20kt late Thursday night into Friday morning, with SCA conditions likely for at least the Bay. High pressure builds into the region Saturday and Sunday.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 350 PM EDT Tuesday .

A SSE wind will likely result in a modest surge through the the middle of the Bay this evening, and then a wind shift to NW will push this water toward the Bay-side of the MD Ern Shore during high tide from around midnight tonight into the overnight hours. Water levels will approach minor flood levels and a Coastal Flood Statement has been issued.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ630>632- 634-656-658. Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EDT Wednesday for ANZ633. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ654. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . ERI NEAR TERM . ERI/MPR SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . MPR MARINE . AJZ TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 10 mi59 min W 23 G 34 69°F 1004 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 11 mi59 min W 17 G 24 69°F 71°F1003.5 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 13 mi59 min S 29 G 41 75°F 1001.8 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 14 mi59 min 72°F1003.1 hPa
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 15 mi59 min WSW 21 G 35 72°F
44072 16 mi39 min NNW 19 G 27 71°F
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 17 mi59 min S 17 G 27 75°F 1003.4 hPa
44087 20 mi63 min 71°F2 ft
CHBV2 24 mi59 min S 25 G 32 75°F 1002.4 hPa
MNPV2 - 8639348 - Money Point, VA 24 mi59 min SSW 12 G 20 76°F 71°F1003.8 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 25 mi59 min WNW 5.1 1006 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 29 mi59 min S 25 G 32 72°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 30 mi59 min S 18 G 29 76°F 1004.2 hPa
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 37 mi41 min W 21 G 25 64°F 71°F1006.2 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 42 mi59 min SSE 29 G 33 1002.9 hPa
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 44 mi123 min 71°F4 ft

Wind History for Dominion Terminal Associates, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Newport News, Newport News / Williamsburg International Airport, VA4 mi35 minWNW 1310.00 miLight Rain66°F63°F90%1005.2 hPa
Fort Eustis / Felker, VA6 mi93 minS 9 G 189.00 miOvercast73°F73°F100%1002.3 hPa
Langley Air Force Base, VA10 mi33 minW 14 G 261.25 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist68°F67°F100%1005.4 hPa
Williamsburg-Jamestown Airport, VA15 mi34 minNW 11 G 194.00 miOvercast61°F59°F94%1005.8 hPa
Norfolk, Naval Air Station, VA16 mi30 minW 14 G 232.00 miHeavy Rain Fog/Mist70°F66°F90%1005.3 hPa
Norfolk, Norfolk International Airport, VA21 mi38 minS 17 G 245.00 miRain Fog/Mist76°F73°F91%1003.8 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KPHF

Wind History from PHF (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS9S6S5S7S6S5S6S9S6S5S12S10S11S14S6S6SE7S10S7S9
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1 day agoSW6--SW6SW6--SW5SW5SW6--SW6W7SW6SW7S6S9SE8S10S7S9S6S8S7S8--
2 days agoNW4NW3NW5NW4CalmW3W3NW3NW3CalmW3S4W4CalmW6W5W4W4SW4SW4CalmSW3S4SW5

Tide / Current Tables for Menchville, James River, Virginia
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Menchville
Click for Map
Wed -- 04:09 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:01 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:02 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:26 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:50 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 10:17 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.31.71.10.60.40.511.72.32.832.92.51.91.30.70.40.50.91.52.22.733

Tide / Current Tables for Huntington Park, James River, Virginia
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Huntington Park
Click for Map
Wed -- 03:34 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 05:38 AM EDT     Moonset
Wed -- 07:00 AM EDT     Sunrise
Wed -- 09:44 AM EDT     3.03 feet High Tide
Wed -- 03:51 PM EDT     0.41 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:42 PM EDT     Moonrise
Wed -- 06:49 PM EDT     Sunset
Wed -- 09:59 PM EDT     3.04 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.40.80.40.40.71.322.62.932.82.31.610.50.40.61.11.82.42.932.9

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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