Marine Weather and Tides
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|Sunrise 7:39AM||Sunset 5:50PM||Sunday January 26, 2020 2:59 PM MST (21:59 UTC)||Moonrise 8:58AM||Moonset 7:39PM||Illumination 4%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Kanab, UTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 261625 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 925 AM MST Sun Jan 26 2020
SYNOPSIS. High pressure aloft will move east of Utah ahead of a weakening weather disturbance for tonight through early Monday. A second storm system will follow for Tuesday night through Wednesday morning. High pressure aloft will expand across the Great Basin for the latter half of the week.
DISCUSSION. Guidance has trended slower with overspreading warm advection precipitation across northern Utah today. By the end of the day, there is a chance for light snow accumulations in the mountains north of I-80.
Fog and stratus is the main theme this morning. The combination of afternoon mixing at some locations yesterday, the lowering of the subsidence inversion below 850mb, and mid/high clouds last night has reduced the impacted areas somewhat, especially Salt Lake County. However locally dense fog is being reported across southwest part of the valley as well as along I-80 near the lake. Will allow the Dense Fog Advisory to continue until 11am.
Kept the mention of fog across the eastern valleys this afternoon. The combination of thickening mid/high cloud cover and the onset of precipitation should erode the impacted areas of fog across the northern valleys.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION. The upper ridge advancing east across the western Great Basin will cross through Utah today. Stable conditions with shallow valley inversions has lead to several areas of northern and eastern Utah in fog and low stratus overnight. Any significant dissipation of fog/low clouds will likely be across northwest Utah behind the passing ridge axis and ahead of a weakening upper trough scheduled to arrive over western Utah early this evening.
Low-level warm advection ahead of this trough will focus across far northern Utah late this afternoon. Any lift generated from this warm advection looks to be weak and probably insufficient to generate precip outside of the far northwest corner of the state late this afternoon.
The best opportunity for precip will begin this evening as low- level cold advection develops across northwest Utah ahead of the advancing upper trough. Deep layer cold advection will become established as the upper trough enters western Utah late this evening. Looking at a relatively short period of organized light to moderate precip immediately ahead of the weakening trough as it moves through the state late tonight/early Monday.
Accumulating snows will likely remain at the higher elevations of northern/central Utah, with a mix of rain/snow in the valleys. Any valley accumulations look to minor and mainly focused along the I-15 corridor south into central Utah through early Monday morning. A quick return to low-level warm advection Monday afternoon may keep some light precip going across the northern/central mountains, though the intensity and areal extent looks limited as there doesn't appear to be any mid-level support for lift behind the exiting trough. A developing anti-cyclonic northwest flow along with a drying air mass should bring an end to precip by late Monday afternoon or early evening.
The next trough to impact the area will enter the Pacific Northwest early Tuesday. This feature will dig southeast across the Great Basin Tuesday night/Wednesday in response to sharp ridging behind the trough along the west coast.
Increasing moist, low-level warm advection will return to far northern Utah early Tuesday. Can not rule out light precip developing near the Idaho border by afternoon, though suspect that increasing cloud cover will be the result of the warm advection lift.
Anticipating a fairly rapid increase in precip Tuesday evening as the trough moves into northern Utah. Fairly strong deep layer cold advection working with the dynamic lift generated by the trough should produce widespread precip along and ahead of the trough axis Tuesday night through early Wednesday. Temperatures aloft with this feature will be cold enough to bring snow down to the valley floor by late Tuesday night. The greatest valley accumulations may end up along the I-15 corridor in central and southwest Utah where solid baroclinic structure will create the strongest lift near the core of the upper trough.
Cold air instability showers will persist over/near the higher terrain behind the trough passage Wednesday afternoon. The development of an anti-cyclonic northerly flow late in the day should bring an end to most of these showers heading into the evening hours.
The mean ridge position over the southeastern pacific will expand east (and further interior) over the eastern Great Basin throughout the long term period. Ensemble clusters are in good agreement regarding this, with the only slight differences in large scale detail keying in on the amplitude of the ridge. As a whole, this ridge is expected to be elongated, with the associated axis remaining largely upstream of the area.
A somewhat moist northwesterly flow aloft on the downstream side of this ridge axis should at times clip northern portions of the area, but in large have continued to run with a dry forecast this package. Coincident with the building heights of the ridge, and likelihood of residual low level moisture, stratus and/or fog within inverted valley/basin areas will remain a potential. Details regarding extent of this remains an unknown at this time, this far out however.
Regarding the residence time of this ridge moving past the long term period, ensemble means shed little light locally, but do show signals of the ridge axis retrograding back towards 140W after day 7. Deterministic output diverges on the net outcome downstream however, and are out of phase across the intermountain region signaling a broad range of potential outcomes.
AVIATION. IFR/LIFR conditions in fog are expected to improve to VFR between 18Z and 20Z, but there is a 30 percent chance they will stick around longer than expected. Light southerly winds are expected to shift to the northwest between 19Z and 21Z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . Dense Fog Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for UTZ002>005- 008-012.
WY . None.
PUBLIC . 10/Conger/Merrill AVIATION . Traphagan
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
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|Page, Page Municipal Airport, AZ||42 mi||66 min||NE 3||10.00 mi||Overcast||39°F||32°F||76%||1021.5 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KPGA
Wind History from PGA (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||NE||N||E||Calm||SE||Calm||Calm||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||E||SE||Calm||SE||SE||Calm||Calm||NE||Calm||NE||Calm|
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Wind Forecast for Salt Lake City, UT (16,3,4,5)(on/off)  Help
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