Marine Weather and Tides
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.
|Sunrise 6:54AM||Sunset 6:35PM||Sunday March 7, 2021 5:38 PM MST (00:38 UTC)||Moonrise 3:14AM||Moonset 12:48PM||Illumination 31%|
7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Springdale, UTHourly EDIT Help
Area Discussion for - Salt Lake City, UT  (on/off)  Help NOTE: mouseover dotted underlined text for definition
FXUS65 KSLC 072256 AFDSLC
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT 356 PM MST Sun Mar 7 2021
SYNOPSIS. A dry and mild southwest flow will remain in place into Monday. A cooler and more active weather pattern is expected Tuesday through the end of the week.
SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Wednesday). A typical though warmer than normal early spring day continues to unfold across the region this afternoon. Temperatures are averaging around 10 degrees above normal in most locations. Upper air and satellite analysis indicate a weakening shortwave trough and associated jet max are crossing the Desert Southwest. Aside from a fairly prolific cloud shield, radar shows no precipitation across the entire region.
An upper level low is currently located over the Gulf of Alaska. Multiple disturbances are ejecting ahead of this longwave trough into the Pacific Northwest. The center of this low will gradually shift southward over the next several days. With this southward movement, multiple shortwaves will eject into the Interior West Monday into Wednesday.
A fairly strong cold front associated with one of these ejecting waves will shift southeastward into Utah Monday evening into Monday night. Ahead of this front, deep and strong southwesterly flow is expected. Currently, wind gusts are expected to largely remain below 45 mph outside of some of the normally windy locations in west central and southwest Utah. Given this, have not issued a wind advisory for Monday afternoon and evening on this shift as confidence in meeting criteria is low and overall impact is minimal. One thing to note however, like the previous wind event, and dry antecedent conditions . blowing dust is likely. Areas of blowing dust should start near the origin points in southwest and west central Utah, spreading north and east through the afternoon and evening. Reduced visibility will be possible.
This cold front will have a fairly pronounced mid-level baroclinc zone, with temperatures falling to -11C or so behind the front. As the associated shortwave lifts northeast away from the region, the cold front will stall across portions of northern/central Utah Tuesday morning.
The next shortwave will approach the state later Tuesday . again developing precipitation along this boundary (still in northern/ central Utah) for a period Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. As this wave departs the region, the mid-level baroclinc zone (and resulting surface feature) steadily weaken Wednesday morning.
Precipitation type for the northern mountains will be snow . however the northern valleys may initially see a rain/snow mix followed by a transition to snow Tuesday night. Amounts are expected to remain relatively light . up to 2 inches possibly more benches, somewhere around 3-6 inches for the northern mountains. This portion of the storm will favor northern and central Utah. Southern Utah will largely wait until the long term portion of the forecast.
LONG TERM (After 12Z Wednesday). Most of the long term forecast will be impacted by a phase shifting longwave trough across the Intermountain West. This evolving trough will greatly influence the precipitation forecast, primarily in the Wednesday through Friday timeframe. The bulk of the long term discussion will focus on this complex trough and discuss the precipitation forecast methodology for southern and central Utah specifically and discuss why portions of northern Utah may see a dry forecast through this time period.
(Southern and Central Utah Precipitation) . As mentioned above a predominately positively tilted trough may be undergoing a phase change into a broad area of low pressure Wednesday, then transitioning back into a elongated, positively tilted trough on Thursday as noted in several model runs. This variability and chaotic nature regarding the H5 pattern makes for varying degrees in confidence in the precipitation forecast. Overall, the models do agree on the overall trough orientation, but waiver on the development of a closed low in terms of timing and location. The approach to the PoP forecast across southern and central Utah where to continue to lean toward the NBM PoP output for Wednesday. A residual surface boundary and weak baroclinic zone aided by weak vort lobes embedded in the main trough, should be enough to initiate some light precipitation chances on Wednesday. Adjustments were made for PoPs on Thursday compared to what the NBM had initialized with. Given the consistent southerly trend amongst the models over the past few days, PoPs across southern and central Utah were increased through Thursday to account for the more southern track. Added moderate to high end PoPs across southern and central Utah into Thursday with the highest PoPs across the southern Utah mountains. The PoP forecast becomes a little murky heading into Friday as some models keep a broad area of low pressure in Arizona, while some transition back to an elongated trough. Lingering precipitation chances should continue into Friday morning but to what extent depends on the evolution of the trough. There may be a brief lull in the precipitation or it may become more isolated in nature but with the back end of the trough axis progged to move through precipitation chances should increase throughout the day, primarily over the higher elevations.
A quick note about precipitation chances for northern Utah. PoPs across northern Utah were adjusted downward with the continued trend toward a more southerly tracking storm system. The northerly extent of the precipitation may reach the southern SLC valley on Thursday, but precipitation that does occur will be very light with no expected impacts or accumulation. Any shift back toward a more northerly track will shift the precipitation axis and PoPs may need to be increased across northern Utah, but we should still expect light precipitation amounts and little impacts with that scenario also.
The latter part of the long term forecast is indicating ridging building in just in time for weekend which should usher in slightly warmer temperatures and dry conditions.
AVIATION. No weather concerns through the TAF period at the SLC terminal. Northwest winds are expected to switch back to southeast between 03-04z this evening. Any cigs developing overnight should remain above 12kft agl. Southerly winds will increase and become gusty after 16z.
SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. UT . None. WY . None.
For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity
For frequently asked questions about the Area Forecast Discussion visit . http://weather.gov/saltlakecity/general/afd_faqs.php
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|St George Municipal Airport, UT||31 mi||43 min||W 8||10.00 mi||Fair||72°F||17°F||12%||1013 hPa|
Link to 5 minute data for KSGU
Wind History from SGU (wind in knots)
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|2 days ago||W||SW||S||S||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||N||SE||SE||S||Calm||SE||Calm||S||NW||NW||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm||Calm|
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