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Marine Weather and Tides Eastville, VA Version 3.4

NOTICE 3/30/2021 -- ANZ330 has been split into ANZ331 and ANZ332. Click EDIT in Marine Forecast and select your new zone. 1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17. 1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

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Sunrise 6:02AM

Sunset 8:18PM

Sunday July 25, 2021 12:18 PM EDT (16:18 UTC)

Moonrise 8:51PM

Moonset 6:25AM

Illumination 98%

NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.

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7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Eastville, VA

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Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA

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FXUS61 KAKQ 251553 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1153 AM EDT Sun Jul 25 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure will remain offshore for the remainder of the weekend, allowing for diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms today. A weak cold front crosses the most of the area on Monday, resulting in scattered to numerous thunderstorms from Monday afternoon through Monday night.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1130 AM EDT Sunday .

The latest wx analysis shows upper ridging anchored over the central/srn Plains, keeping a WNW flow aloft in place across the local area. Sfc high pressure has settled well off the Carolina coast, with an area of low pressure off the east coast of FL. The low level flow today is more from the SSW (compared to the SSE winds yesterday). Skies are variably cloudy, generally more cloudy over the eastern shore and partly to mostly sunny elsewhere with temperatures in the upper 70s/around 80F on the eastern shore and into the lower 80s most other places.

A few isolated showers developed over the Bay and passed through the MD/VA eastern shore over the past few hrs but have now dissipated and mainly dry wx is expected through 18-19Z as showers/tstms gradually develop off to our W across the mountains aided by a weak sfc trough. Isolated to widely scattered tstms are then progged to hold together while pushing ESE into the Piedmont (mainly the NW zones). Most of the high res guidance keeps the convection confined to the NW of RIC, but will maintain ~20% PoPs to include metro RIC and to portions of E-central VA as well. SPC has placed our far northern zones into a Marginal risk for severe for the rest of today/tonight, primarily for strong/damaging winds. The overall shear is less than yesterday however, and expect most of the stronger storms to stay N over the NE CONUS and northern mid-Atlantic. The low- end severe threat should diminish by 9-11 PM with the loss of surface heating. However, an approaching cold front and a nocturnal southwesterly ~30kt 925mb jet may be enough to keep at least isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) going (mainly N of I-64 and E of I-95) through much of the night. Have 15-35% PoPs through 12z Mon to account for this. Early morning lows Monday AM range from the upper 60s to low/mid 70s.

SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

For Monday, a WNW-NW flow aloft continues to prevail across the region as the above mentioned weak cold front continues to approach from the NW and drops through the local area late in the day and overnight into Tue morning. Meanwhile, deep-layer moisture continues to increase across the area, with PW values rising to 2.0-2.4" across the SE two-thirds of the area by Monday aftn. In addition, a shortwave trough aloft is progged to cross the area late Monday into Monday night.

Instability parameters become fairly impressive by 18z Mon (1500-2500 J/kg of MLCAPE) as temperatures rise to around 90F with low-mid 70s dew points. However, the models continue to forecast only minimal shear. Nevertheless, suspect that there will be some chance for at least isolated strong to severe storms (main threat will be localized damaging wind gusts) Mon aftn/evening. It appears the greater threat may be locally heavy rain/flooding given the above mentioned PWs and also the relatively slow expected motion (MBE velocities are only 10-15kt from Mon aftn-Mon evening as per 00z NAM/GFS). Greatest threat for localized flooding appears to be across southern VA and into NE NC (main concern would be the urban areas of Hampton Roads given relatively high FFGs elsewhere). Even though it is at the end of its forecast period (48-h), it is worth noting that the 00z HREF has 30-50% probabilities of 3"/3 hours in these areas from 21z Mon-00z Tue. WPC has maintained a MRGL Risk for Excessive Rainfall from Mon-Mon night across most of the area. Have nudged the highest PoPs (60-70% . from 18z Mon-06z Tue) a bit to the south given the trend in the 00z/25 guidance. Have chc PoPs (mainly during the aftn/evening) across nrn zones.

Tstms will be most numerous during the aftn/evening (with the highest coverage along and S of I-64). These tstms are progged to gradually move SE during the evening and overnight. Convection will wane/exit the area during the latter part of Mon night. Forecast highs Mon are in the upper 80s to around 90F, with lows in the upper 60s-low 70s Monday night. The front stalls/weakens across NC on Tue. Will keep high chc PoPs across the south Tue aftn, with a slight chc of aftn tstms into most of central/E-central VA. Highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 330 AM EDT Sunday .

The middle to late portion of this week will be characterized by near to slightly above normal temperatures and seasonally moderate levels of humidity, as the heat ridge remains anchored in place across the central CONUS with continued W-NW flow aloft across the local area. Timing of rain chances in this type of pattern will be dependent on timing and location of numerous shortwave disturbances in the flow aloft (and a cold front that potentially approaches by late next week). Overall, will have only 10-20 PoPs Wed-Thu, with PoPs 20-30% for Fri as the next cold front moves through, with 10-20% PoPs Sat. The timing of the front is somewhat uncertain so a faster solution (like the 00z GFS/GEM) could lead to higher PoPs than currently forecast as early as Thu evening/Thu night. The slower ECMWF solution would imply that the highest PoPs hold off until Fri aftn. Summerlike heat and humidity is expected with highs 90-95F and lows mainly 70-75F Wed-Fri. Sat looks a little cooler with less humidity at this time.

AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 630 AM EDT Sunday .

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the 12z TAF period with SSW-SW winds increasing to 9-13kt with gusts to around 20kt by afternoon. Otherwise, any isolated showers/tstms are expected to remain NW of RIC and SBY this afternoon, but could approach SBY (and even RIC) by this evening. However, PoPs are only 20-30% at RIC/SBY this evening, so will hold off on mentioning pcpn in the TAFs. Isolated showers (and perhaps a tstm or two) are possible tonight at SBY, while PoPs are no higher than 20% at the VA/NC terminals. Prevailing conditions likely remain VFR through tonight.

Outlook . The chc for afternoon/evening showers/tstms increases to 30-60% on Monday, as moisture pools ahead of an approaching frontal system. Mainly VFR conditions Tuesday with isolated to widely scattered showers and tstms potentially bringing brief degraded flight conditions in the afternoon and evening. The chc for afternoon and evening showers and tstms is 20% or less by Wednesday and Thursday.

MARINE. As of 300 AM EDT Sunday .

Try as I might, can't seem to find gusts aoa 20 kts across the Ches Bay except from Tangier Isl on north. Latest model guid not as bullish with 20 kt gusts either, so dropped the SCA on the Bay south of Windmill Point. Will leave the SCA up for ANZ603 though.

Minimal SCA's cont for the nrn cstl waters, expecting gusts arnd 25 kts and 4-5 ft seas later today/tonite.

Diminishing winds Mon as the pressure gradient relaxes. A weak front approaches then crosses the region Mon aftrn into Tues. The boundary lingers/washes out just south of the local area Tues into Wed. Sub- SCA conditions expected thru mid week.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EDT Monday for ANZ650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ630.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . ERI/LKB SHORT TERM . ERI/LKB LONG TERM . ERI/LKB AVIATION . ERI MARINE . MPR

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Weather Reporting Stations

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Stations	Dist	Age	Wind	Air Temp	Water Temp	Waves	Pressure	DewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA	25 mi	48 min	SSW 13 G 17	77°F	77°F		1016 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA	25 mi	48 min	S 8.9 G 8.9		77°F
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147)	26 mi	52 min			76°F	2 ft
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA	32 mi	48 min	S 19 G 22				1016.4 hPa
CHBV2	33 mi	48 min	SW 8 G 12	80°F			1015.5 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA	34 mi	48 min	S 8 G 14	81°F			1017 hPa
44089	36 mi	52 min			72°F	3 ft
44087	37 mi	52 min			78°F	2 ft
44072	39 mi	42 min	SSW 14 G 14	77°F	80°F	2 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA	43 mi	48 min	SSW 15 G 17	78°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA	44 mi	42 min	SSW 14 G 18	77°F	81°F	2 ft	1016.8 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA	46 mi	48 min	SSW 12 G 16	80°F			1016.2 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA	48 mi	48 min			80°F		1016.4 hPa

Wind History for Kiptopeke, VA

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Airport Reports

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Airport	Dist	Age	Wind kt	Visibility	Sky/Weather	Temp	DewPt	Humidity	Pressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA	30 mi	3.1 hrs	SW 9	10.00 mi	Overcast	75°F	65°F	69%	1016.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)

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Tide / Current Tables for Sand Shoal Inlet (Coast Guard Station), Virginia

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Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia

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Weather Map

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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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