Thursday, October1, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Chester, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:04AMSunset 6:53PM Thursday October 1, 2020 8:15 AM EDT (12:15 UTC) Moonrise 6:12PMMoonset 5:40AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ637 James River From Jamestown To The James River Bridge- 651 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Today..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..S winds 5 kt, becoming nw 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
Fri night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..NE winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Mon..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the morning, then a chance of showers in the afternoon.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 651 Am Edt Thu Oct 1 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure prevails through this afternoon. A cold front crosses the coast tonight into early Friday morning. High pressure builds across the area into the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Chester, VA
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location: 37.38, -77.38     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 011127 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 727 AM EDT Thu Oct 1 2020

SYNOPSIS. A cold front will approach from the northwest today, and slowly cross the area late tonight through Friday morning. High pressure will settle over the region for the first part of the weekend bringing cool and dry weather to the local area. Another fast moving system will track through the area late Sunday into Monday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 320 AM Thursday .

An NWS survey team has confirmed two EF-0 tornadoes from last night, one in Southampton County and the other in Isle of Wight County. Please see PNSAKQ for the latest details.

Latest analysis indicates sfc low pressure over eastern Canada with a cold front extending SW to the west side of the Appalachians. Aloft the flow is WSW out ahead of the next upper trough centered over the western Great Lakes and central Canada. With the front becoming nearly parallel to the upper flow this aftn, expect the forward progression to slow down, making for a mainly dry day across the local area aside from a slight chance for rain late over the far W/NW sections of the CWA. As the font slows down, models are showing a weak wave of low pressure developing along the front to the lee of the southern Appalachians late this aftn/early evening as the upper system approaches. Overall the system is still not overly moist, but trends are for higher PoPs into the NW 1/2 of the local area tonight, with likely PoPs now forecast to the NW of RIC this evening, shifting E to the northern Neck later tonight/early Fri. Have QPF amounts up to 0.25" in these areas. Farther SE, PoPs drop off to only 20-30% tonight (and remaining dry over most of NE NC). With a sunny morning and a SW flow today, followed by increasing clouds from W to E, highs will warm into the upper 70s/near 80F SE to the lower- mid 70s NW. Lows tonight range from near 50F NW to around 60F SE.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 320 AM Thursday .

There may be an isolated shower or two through late morning mainly on the eastern shore and along the Bay with skies clearing by late morning in the W but delayed until the aftn farther E (did increase clouds a bit given the low level flow turning NNE which will bring additional low level moisture from the Bay/Ocean). Cooler behind the front on Fri with highs mainly in the mid 60s to around 70F.

High pressure builds toward the local area Fri night and then over the area on Saturday . allowing for mainly clear and comfortably cool conditions. Lows in the 40s over much of the local area, with 50s along the coast Friday night. Highs in the mid 60s to around 70F on Saturday. Mostly clear Sat night with lows again mainly in the 40s inland and in the 50s at the immediate coast and over the SE where clouds may increase late.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 320 AM EDT Thursday .

Latest 00Z/01 models remain somewhat divergent with respect to precise details with the next system to impact the region Sunday/Monday, but have trended somewhat closer compared to previous runs. The GFS/GEFS remain the most progressive with the evolution of of a sharpening upstream shortwave trough that is progged to track from the central CONUS eastward to the Mid- Atlantic region from Sunday- early next week with little if any precipitation across the CWA. While the ECMWF/GEM solutions remain more amplified and wetter, they do not have the upper low becoming cutoff to our W as previous runs had depicted. Thus, the forecast will mostly remain unchanged with low chance PoPs moving into SE VA/NE NC later Sunday, with a chance for rain all areas Sun night/Mon AM (highest PoPs along the coast). The consensus is for the bulk of the moisture to be moving out later Mon so have trimmed back aftn PoPs over the western 1/2 of the area. Highs Sun/Mon mainly in the mid 60s-low 70s, with overnight lows generally in the 50s (w/ upper 40s W & NW). Depending on how quickly this system exits the area, Tuesday/Wednesday of next week should end up being dry and comfortable with highs in the upr 60s to mid 70s and lows in the 50s to around 60.

AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 715 AM EDT Thursday .

VFR conditions prevail today under clear skies and SW winds of 5-10kt. Clouds will increase later in the aftn as the next system approaches from the NW. At least a chance for showers can be expected over VA/MD terminals tonight into Fri AM. The highest probs are at RIC/SBY where MVFR flight restrictions look likely late tonight/early Fri. Less of a chance for rain at ORF/PHF/ECG, but as winds shift to the NNE behind the front, a period of lower CIGs is still likely Fri AM between 08-15Z along with some gusty NNE winds of 20-25kt near the coast.

Outlook . Dry/VFR Fri aftn through midday Sunday. Next chc for showers will be Sun aftn and especially Sun night/Mon AM.

MARINE. As of 320 AM EDT Thursday .

Early this morning, SW winds range from 10 to 15 knots across the southern waters to 15 to 20 knots across the northern waters/Bay. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the northern Chesapeake Bay through sunrise. Seas range from 2 to 3 feet south to 3 to 4 feet north while waves in the Bay are generally around 2 feet (3 feet for the northern Bay).

Weak high pressure builds across the region today, allowing for winds to become light and potentially even sea-breeze dominated for a period of time this afternoon. A cold front approaches from the west through this evening before eventually crossing the waters tonight. Behind the front, winds will become NNW and increase to around 15 to 25 knots overnight into Friday morning. Small Craft Advisory conditions are likely during this time frame (strongest winds likely from around 06z through 14z Fri) for at least the Chesapeake Bay, Lower James River, and Currituck Sound. SCA conditions are also possible for the coastal waters, especially from around 10z through 15z Fri due to wind gusts to 25 knots. High pressure builds back across the area later Friday into the weekend. Generally sub-SCA conditions this weekend (minus a brief period of possible low-end SCA conditions early Saturday morning across the Bay). An area of low pressure potentially impacts the region Sunday night into Monday.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . LKB NEAR TERM . LKB SHORT TERM . JDM/LKB LONG TERM . JDM/LKB AVIATION . LKB MARINE . AJB/AJZ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 35 mi45 min Calm 57°F 1015 hPa54°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 49 mi45 min W 4.1 G 8 63°F 70°F1013.8 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA8 mi19 minVar 310.00 miFair56°F54°F93%1016 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA10 mi21 minWSW 710.00 miA Few Clouds59°F53°F81%1014.9 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA15 mi20 minWSW 510.00 miFair57°F52°F84%1015.2 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA22 mi21 minSW 410.00 miFair58°F52°F81%1014.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCI

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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1 day agoS5S8S8SE7SE7S10S9S9SE9SE5SE8S123NW11NW11
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Tide / Current Tables for Chester, James River, Virginia
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Chester
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:38 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:05 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 11:35 AM EDT     0.23 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:57 PM EDT     3.27 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:11 PM EDT     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.11.92.73.13.22.92.31.71.10.70.30.30.81.72.53.13.332.51.91.30.80.4

Tide / Current Tables for Haxall, James River, Virginia
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Haxall
Click for Map
Thu -- 04:06 AM EDT     3.14 feet High Tide
Thu -- 06:39 AM EDT     Moonset
Thu -- 07:04 AM EDT     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:43 AM EDT     0.26 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 04:26 PM EDT     3.18 feet High Tide
Thu -- 05:06 PM EDT     Full Moon
Thu -- 06:51 PM EDT     Sunset
Thu -- 07:10 PM EDT     Moonrise
Thu -- 11:06 PM EDT     0.29 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.91.72.42.93.132.51.81.30.80.40.30.71.42.22.83.13.12.72.11.510.50.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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