Sunrise 6:08 AM   Sunset 7:53 PM Moonrise 12:48 AM   Moonset 10:15 AM

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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1238 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Rest of tonight - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: E 3 ft at 11 seconds and S 2 ft at 4 seconds. Tue - SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 12 seconds. Tue night - S winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 3 ft at 11 seconds. Wed - SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft, occasionally to 5 ft. Wave detail: S 3 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers. Wed night - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: se 2 ft at 5 seconds and E 2 ft at 10 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening. Thu - NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Wave detail: ne 2 ft at 4 seconds and E 2 ft at 9 seconds. Thu night - SE winds 5 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri - E winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Fri night - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Sat - E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft. Sat night - E winds 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft.

ANZ600 1238 Am Edt Tue Apr 30 2024
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers -
high pressure anchors off the southeast coast through Tuesday. A weak cold front crosses the waters Tuesday night into Wednesday.

FXUS61 KAKQ 300544 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 144 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SYNOPSIS
High pressure will shift farther off the southeast coast and out to sea today, as a weak cold front approaches from the northwest. The front will cross the area late tonight through Wednesday with scattered showers and storms possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening. Dry conditions are expected Thursday and Friday, with rain chances returning this weekend, as another cold front approaches from the northwest.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday...

Early this morning, a strong upper level ridge remains in place across the eastern US and ~1020mb high pressure is centered off the southeast US coast. Skies are generally mostly clear with a few higher clouds beginning to approach the region from the west. Mild early this morning with temperatures generally in the mid to upper 60s (a few locations are still in the lower 70s).
Temperatures will generally fall back into the low to mid 60s as we approach sunrise, with a few pockets of upper 50s possible in the typically cooler locations.

High pressure that is centered off the southeast US coast will shift further off the coast and out to sea today as a cold front begins to approach from the northwest. Another very warm day is expected for today with a mostly sunny sky becoming partly sunny (due to increasing high clouds). High temperatures will be fairly similar to yesterday, just a degree or two cooler (generally mid to upper 80s except right along the coast). Dry weather is expected through the daylight hours. Overnight, there is a low chance (~20% or less) for an isolated shower or storm, with the best chances across northwestern portions of the forecast area (closer to the boundary). It will be another mild night with lows in the 60s.



SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
As of 400 PM EDT Monday...

The sfc high will shift farther off the SE coast and out to sea Tuesday through Wed. Still very warm on Tue, with a mostly sunny sky becoming partly sunny, as a weak cold front starts to approach from the WNW. Highs will mainly be in the lower to mid 80s. That front will then gradually push into and across the region Tue evening through Wed evening. There may be isolated showers or a tstm Tue evening into Wed morning. But then, the best chance for showers/tstms (30-54%) will be from late Wed morning into Wed evening, as the boundary slowly sinks SE through the area. Lows Tue night in the lower to mid 60s, with highs on Wed in the mid 70s to lower 80s. The highest PoPs will be across srn/SE counties where around ~0.25" of rain will be possible. The rain will end Wed night with dry weather expected for late Wed night through Thu, as the front pushes SSE of the area and upper ridge of high pressure builds into/over the region. Lows will range through the 50s Wed night, with highs on Thu ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s near the Bay/coast, to the upper 70s to lower 80s inland/Piedmont.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
As of 415 PM EDT Monday...

High pressure ridge aloft will maintain dry weather Thu night through Fri. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered over New England or just offshore, resulting in onshore flow everywhere.
This will keep temps cooler along the coast and warmer inland.
Highs on Fri in the lower to mid 80s inland/Piedmont, and in the mid 70s near the Bay/coast (coolest along the Atlc beaches of the Eastern Shore). There may be an isolated shower or tstm Fri evening/night over WNW counties, as a cold front starts to approach from the WNW.

A cold front will gradually push into and across the region Sat into Mon, providing decent chances for showers/tstms. Due to plenty of cloud cover expected, highs will range through the 70s into the lower 80s.

AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
As of 145 AM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions will prevail at the TAF sites through the 06Z/30 TAF period. SSW winds will avg 5-10 kt early this morning, with SW winds 10-15 kt, gusting to 20-25 kt later this morning through this afternoon. High clouds will be on the increase today, becoming BKN-OVC later this afternoon and tonight.

Outlook: Showers or thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday into Wednesday evening (best chances at the SE terminals), with brief flight restrictions possible in any storms. Dry/VFR conditions are expected for Thursday and Friday. There is chance for showers/thunderstorms and potentially sub-VFR conditions late Friday night through Saturday with the next front.

MARINE
As of 300 PM EDT Monday...

Generally benign, sub-SCA conditions, are expected through the forecast period though some gusts to around 20 kt are possible at times.

High pressure remains centered off of the Carolinas with an area of low pressure west of the Great Lakes. This is placing the region under a persistent southwest flow around 10 to 15 knots. Seas persist around 2 to 3 feet (up to 4 feet offshore), and waves in the bay are running around 1 foot (up to 2 feet at the mouth). Southwesterly flow continues overnight and decreases with the loss of mixing. For Tue southwest winds should increase a little after daybreak with mixing resulting to 10 to 15 kt with a few higher gusts possible over the Bay and near shore waters closer to land.

A cold front approaches the waters from the north and northwest late Tuesday night pushing south past Ocean City and the Potomac River in the morning reaching the lower Bay and NC waters later in the afternoon. S to SW winds will increase slightly ahead of the front (~15 knots over the bay and ~15 to 20 knots over the coastal waters) Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday evening. Seas increase some due to the stronger S winds, with seas approaching 4 to 5 feet out 20 nm, especially north of Cape Charles Light. Winds shift to the N and NE behind the front Wednesday morning and remain around 10 to 15 kt. Generally onshore flow from the NE then E is expected from late Wednesday into Friday. Have increased the NE winds a little with this forecast updated based on the models, but winds remain below SCA criteria around 15 kt with some gusts to near 20 kt possible at times. Another front potentially approaches the waters later this weekend.

CLIMATE
As of 800 PM EDT Monday...

No record highs were set today 4/29. SBY has a chance on Tuesday, while records at the other sites are very unlikely.

Record highs for Tuesday April 30th:

* RIC: 93/1974 * ORF: 93/1988 * SBY: 86/2017 * ECG: 90/1974

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...None.
NC...None.
VA...None.
MARINE...None.

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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
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Mon -- 12:21 AM EDT     4.74 feet High Tide
Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:53 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:06 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 01:06 PM EDT     3.76 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:40 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia, Tide feet

Quinby Inlet entrance
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Mon -- 12:58 AM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:09 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 06:18 AM EDT     0.43 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 10:05 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 12:34 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 06:05 PM EDT     0.81 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 07:51 PM EDT     Sunset
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Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia, Tide feet

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