Wednesday, February24, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nassawadox, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:39AMSunset 5:54PM Wednesday February 24, 2021 8:57 PM EST (01:57 UTC) Moonrise 2:59PMMoonset 5:09AM Illumination 97% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 651 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
Tonight..SW winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming W 10 to 15 kt late. Seas 2 to 4 ft. Dominant period 4 seconds.
Thu..N winds 15 to 20 kt, diminishing to 5 to 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds, subsiding to 2 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds late.
Thu night..N winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Fri..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Fri night..E winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds. Showers likely after midnight.
Sat..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sat night..W winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming N 5 to 10 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 10 kt, becoming S in the afternoon. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers likely, mainly in the morning.
Sun night..W winds 10 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft. Showers.
ANZ600 651 Pm Est Wed Feb 24 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A dry cold front crosses the waters early Thursday morning. A series of weak systems will bring unsettled weather back into the region over the upcoming weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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location: 37.4, -75.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 250000 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 700 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

SYNOPSIS. High pressure continues to move east and off the coast through this evening. A dry cold front crosses the area early Thursday morning. A series of weak systems will bring unsettled weather back into the region over the upcoming weekend into early next week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/. As of 315 PM EST Wednesday .

Surface analysis this afternoon shows the surface high well offshore with the entire region in a warm southwesterly flow ahead of the next approaching cold front. To the west, the cold front was pushing into Kentucky with the parent low pressure over Lake Michigan Aloft, a strong. though dampening . shortwave was pushing into the Great Lakes region. This will drive the next cold frontal boundary across the local area late tonight and early Friday morning. Expect an increase in winds overnight and the cooler air surges in from the NW. After daytime highs in the mid 60s to around 70 lows tonight drop into the upper 30s in the NW Piedmont and MD Eastern Shore to low 40s central VA and mid 40s in the southeast.

SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/. As of 325 PM EST Wednesday .

Thursday remains dry and seasonable as weak high pressure builds over the area. This high pressure is of Pacific origin and flow becomes zonal, and as a result temperatures only really drop back toward climo normal, w/highs in the low 50s along the coast, mid to upper 50s well inland, under a partly to mostly sunny sky. Dry wx continues Thu night with mostly clear/partly cloudy north, and becoming mostly cloudy over the south, as the front lingers across the Carolinas. Lows will range through the 30s.

Friday still looks to remain mostly dry as overrunning moisture along the stalled front to the south over GA into the Carolinas increases cloud cover. There will be a weak CAD wedge in the low levels and with drier air in place it will take some time to get precip down to the surface. Have kept Friday dry with PoPs coming in Friday night night. Highs on Fri will range from the mid 40s near 50.

Overall, models still in general agreement in bringing unsettled weather to our local area from Fri night through Mon. Precipitation moves NE into the eroding CAD wedge Friday night. Given the persistent W-SW flow and no supply of markedly colder air, these systems and associated moisture will be mainly rain showers, though some mixed pcpn will be possible at the outset far N-NW tier of counties late Fri night into Sat morning. Periods of rain will affect the region Fri night through a portion of Sat as a series of waves move along and east to west oriented boundary. Saturday morning temperatures will start off in the mid to upper 30s and slowly warm into the 50s as the boundary lifts north. Temperatures across Central VA and the piedmont will be tricky Saturday depending on hwo fast the boundary lifts north and could be a tad cooler.

Models agree that there will be a lull or at least a decrease in the widespread precip Sat afternoon and into the evening.

LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 330 PM EST Wednesday .

Models agree that after the lull in precip late Sat behind the initial wave, rain returns Sun morning and lasts through most of Mon. At this point, it looks like dry wx will return on Tue as high pressure builds in from the north pushing moisture south. Overall QPF from Fri night through Monday will average around 1 to 1.5 inches especially across central VA, the piedmont and upper Eastern Shore. Locally higher totals are possible mainly across Central VA.

Highs will range from the mid 50s to lower 60s Sat, through the 50s Sun, in the lower 50s to lower 60s Mon, and in the upper 40s to mid 50s Tue. Lows will range from the mid 30s to lower 40s Fri night, range through the 40s Sat night and Sun night, and in the mid 30s to mid 40s Mon night.

AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 700 PM EST Wednesday .

Low pressure was located over SE Ontario as of 00z, with a cold front trailing to the SW through the Ohio Valley. Meanwhile, high pressure was centered well off the Southeast coast. The wind was generally SSW 8-10kt under a clear sky. The cold front is expected to push through the area from 06-12z resulting in a wind shift to NW, then N into early Thursday morning. The cold frontal passage is expected to by dry, with only some passing mid and high clouds. High pressure builds N of the region Thursday afternoon allowing the wind to shift to NE. Some gusts up to 20kt are possible at ORF/ECG late Thursday morning into the early afternoon. Otherwise, wind speeds are expected to range from 8-12kt through much of the 00z TAF period.

High pressure prevails Thursday night into Friday. A series of low pressure systems are expected to pass through the area Saturday through Monday, bringing the potential for periodic flight restrictions.

MARINE. As of 325 PM EST Wednesday .

This afternoon, high pressure is now offshore of the waters with ~999 mb low pressure over srn Ontario. The associated cold front is just now approaching the central Appalachians from the NW. S-SW winds are still in the 10-15 kt range. Seas are generally 2 to 3 feet, while waves in the Bay are 1 to 2 feet.

The pressure gradient will continue to tighten this evening in advance of the cold front. As a result, expect an increase S-SW winds this evening into tonight. Winds will likely approach Small Craft Advisory criteria across portions of the Chesapeake Bay by late this evening, but will continue to hold off on any headlines for the S-SW winds ahead of the front due to the overall marginal nature of the event and the setup (SW winds over cold waters). Will leave the SCA for the nrn coastal waters as is for this evening, and will extend it until 18z Thu to account for the potential of 25 kt gusts post-frontal. The front slides south during the early morning hours Thursday, with winds becoming N-NW in its wake. Local wind probabilities for sustained 18 kt winds have increased to 55-70% over the eastern two-thirds of the Chesapeake Bay during the 3-6 hour timeframe immediately following the FROPA (highest probs are from 11-17z Thu). Went ahead and hoisted SCAs for the Ches Bay from early Thu AM (06-09z) until 18z. Will need to watch the Currituck Sound for a brief period of low-end SCA gusts Thu AM as well, but will hold off on headlines for now. Seas increase to 3-4 ft behind the front, with 5 ft seas possible in spots. Waves on the bay are forecast to be around 3 ft during the period of highest winds Thu AM. High pressure builds back into the region later Thursday into Friday leading to sub-SCA conditions. Another area of low pressure impacts the region over the weekend, with SCAs possible (mainly over the ocean due to seas).

HYDROLOGY. As of 655 AM EST Wednesday .

Flood warnings continue for the following rivers:

Nottoway near Sebrell Blackwater above Franklin

Currently, minor river flooding is occurring along the Blackwater above Franklin and the Nottoway near Sebrell. See water.weather.gov for more site specific information.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ632- 634. Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ630- 631. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for ANZ650-652.

SYNOPSIS . JAO NEAR TERM . MAM/JAO SHORT TERM . MAM/JAO LONG TERM . MAM/JAO AVIATION . AJZ MARINE . AJB/ERI HYDROLOGY . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi57 min SW 6 G 8 47°F 46°F1013.1 hPa (-2.3)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi57 min S 16 G 17 1013.2 hPa (-2.1)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi57 min S 11 G 12 43°F
44072 32 mi37 min WSW 7.8 G 7.8 46°F
44089 32 mi61 min 39°F3 ft
CHBV2 32 mi57 min SSW 11 G 13 53°F 1012.8 hPa (-1.2)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi31 min 43°F2 ft
44087 35 mi31 min 43°F1 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 35 mi57 min SSW 18 G 18 53°F
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi57 min S 8.9 G 17 61°F 1014.4 hPa (-0.9)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi57 min SSW 5.1 G 8 61°F 40°F1012.7 hPa (-1.2)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi57 min S 13 G 15 61°F 1013 hPa (-1.1)
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi57 min 42°F1013.8 hPa (-0.9)
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi57 min SSW 8.9 G 13 59°F 1013.7 hPa (-0.8)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi57 min S 9.9 G 11 55°F 1013.8 hPa (-1.0)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA17 mi2.4 hrsS 810.00 miFair47°F42°F81%1014.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day agoW8W8W7NW3CalmW4W3W4SW3W4SW3W4W5SW6SW10
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:58 AM EST     4.43 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 12:26 PM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:52 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:34 PM EST     3.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.30.91.82.93.74.24.44.13.42.41.50.60.10.10.71.72.63.33.83.83.32.41.40.6

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Wed -- 05:09 AM EST     Moonset
Wed -- 05:26 AM EST     4.10 feet High Tide
Wed -- 06:40 AM EST     Sunrise
Wed -- 11:51 AM EST     0.04 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 02:58 PM EST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:51 PM EST     Sunset
Wed -- 06:02 PM EST     3.58 feet High Tide
Wed -- 11:49 PM EST     0.03 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.61.32.33.13.74.143.52.71.80.90.300.41.222.83.33.63.32.61.70.80.2

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