Saturday, August24, 2019 L-36.com


Marine Weather and Tides
Nassawadox, VA

Version 3.4
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7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
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Sunrise 6:27AMSunset 7:45PM Saturday August 24, 2019 4:00 PM EDT (20:00 UTC) Moonrise 12:00AMMoonset 1:53PM Illumination 32% Phase: Waning Crescent; Moon at 24 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 121 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through late Sunday night...
This afternoon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds. A chance of showers.
Tonight..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds. A chance of showers.
Sun..NE winds 20 kt. Seas around 5 ft with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the morning.
Sun night..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Mon..NE winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Mon night..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..NE winds 15 kt. Seas 6 to 7 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers in the evening.
Wed..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of showers and tstms.
Wed night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming W after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. A chance of tstms in the evening. A chance of showers. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 121 Pm Edt Sat Aug 24 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. High pressure builds north of the region through the weekend. Meanwhile, a cold front will become stationary off the coast. Low pressure is expected to develop along the boundary early next week.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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location: 37.4, -75.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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Fxus61 kakq 241840
afdakq
area forecast discussion
national weather service wakefield va
240 pm edt Sat aug 24 2019

Synopsis
A cold front will stall along the carolina coast over the weekend.

High pressure will build in from the north behind the front
through today. Low pressure is expected to develop along the
front early next week.

Near term through tonight
As of 1000 am edt Saturday...

latest analysis indicating yesterday's sfc cold front well off
to our s, with ~1029mb sfc high pressure centered over the
northern great lakes. Aloft, a trough is situated over eastern
ny pa and is progged by the models to slowly sag SE through the
day. Ample low mid level moisture is in place over the central
and southern portions of the local area with radar depicting an
area of light showers over south central va, slowly advancing
eastward. Temperatures are significantly cooler than the past
several days and range from the mid 60s in south central va to
the upper 60s lower 70s across the remainder of the area.

Have raised pops into the 30-40% chance range a little farther n
to the southside of metro ric late this morning into the mid
aftn period, before somewhat drier air advects in from the n.

Maintained 30-60% pops across southern va and NE nc through the
aftn, with highest pops expected after 18z focusing over far se
va NE nc. Skies will be mainly cloudy for southern va and NE nc,
with variably cloudy partly sunny skies across the northern 1 3
of the cwa. Highs will generally range from the mid to upper
70s, potentially cooler in areas where rain showers persist
(only lower 70s for south central va and interior NE nc).

Shortwave aloft rotates SE through the region tonight, but deep
layered moisture becomes confined to far SE sections so will
focus chance to low-end likely pops there (at least through 06z),
with mainly dry conditions elsewhere. Lows range from the upper
50s NW to around 70f se.

Short term Sunday through Monday
As of 400 am edt Saturday...

by Sunday morning, the surface high looks like it will push the
moisture far enough south to limit the chances for any showers
to mainly NE nc and far SE va with drying of the mid and upper
level expected to continue through the day on Sunday suppressing
the pcpn farther south through the day. However, the low level
moisture should remain in place with strong easterly flow
through about 850 mb. That may be enough to hold clouds in place
and could limit the day time heating. For now have gone close
to 80f most areas, but if those lower clouds do hold together
could see readings more in the mid 70s toward the southern va
piedmont.

The forecast for Sunday night into Monday could change rapidly
over the next few days depending on the potential development of
a tropical system of the SE us coast. The models are struggling
with the development and location of the system with the 00z
gfs quicker to develop the system and move it northward off the
carolinas by Monday afternoon while the 00z ECMWF continues to
be slower and farther to the SE off the coast with much less
impact to the region. Very minor changes to pops with this
update, maintained low chance pops with the moisture overrunning
the wedging high. Again will need to monitor the potential
tropical development along the SE us coast this weekend.

Long term Monday night through Friday
As of 300 pm edt Friday...

the early part of the extended forecast will depend much upon any
development and potential track of the tropical disturbance
currently off the fl coast. Latest NHC outlook suggests that
this system will stay well off the local coast. Despite that,
given the proximity to the tropical system and the potential for
some tropical type showers to move across the area, and some
reinforcing moisture lift from weak upper disturbances moving
across the mid atlc and NE states in the w-sw flow aloft, will
maintain low chance pops Mon night through thu. However, if the
tropical system stays further offshore it is conceivable that
much of the middle of next week will be dry other than perhaps
some widely scattered afternoon evening storms. Otherwise, by
Friday the GFS and ECMWF both show drying across the area as a
ridge axis builds in from the west. As such, have kept Friday
dry.

Temps on Tuesday will trend slightly below normal due to the
extensive cloudiness (although it will be muggy), but then rise to
near normal for wed-fri.

Aviation 19z Saturday through Thursday
As of 200 pm edt Saturday...

scattered light rain showers will continue across far southern
va and NE nc into this evening. Still primarilyVFR conditions
(though some MVFR CIGS may affect kecg this evening tonight). N
to NE winds will range around 10 to 15 knots with gusts up to
20kt along the immediate coast and avg 5-10 kt farther inland.

Partly to mostly sunny N and partly-mostly cloudy S for Sunday
butVFR conditions are expected throughout. NE winds will again
be somewhat elevated gusty along the coast at 10-15kt with gusts
to 20 kt (with ~10kt inland).

Outlook: low pressure developing along a stalled front and
high pressure centered to our N NE will keep an easterly flow
across the region mon-tue, allowing for ample moisture, a chance
for showers, and the potential for sub-VFR ceilings from time
to time (especially at eastern TAF locations) mon-tue.

Marine
As of 630 am edt Saturday...

a NE wind has increased to 15-20kt across the bay and mouth of
the james early this morning. SCA flags have been added through
10 am as high-res guidance has the wind diminishing to 10-15kt
later this morning into the aftn.

Previous discussion...

a cold front is pushing swd through nc early this morning
as high pressure builds across the great lakes. The wind has shifted
to nne behind the front 10-15kt, and this has resulted in 3-4ft seas
in the ocean and 2-3ft waves in the bay. The high will build across
upstate ny and into NRN new england today as the front settles off
the carolina coast. Therefore, the wind will shift to NE and remain
10-15kt. The high strengthens and remains nearly stationary tonight.

Meanwhile, an inverted trough begins to develop along the old
frontal boundary and the pressure gradient will tighten along the
mid-atlantic coast. A NE wind should increase to 15-25kt tonight
into Sunday, with seas building to 4-5ft N and 5-6ft S later tonight
into Sunday. SCA flags remain in effect for the bay and lower james,
and have been added for the ocean (primarily for seas) and the
currituck sound. The wind will remain NE Sunday night into Monday as
tropical low pressure organizes off the carolina coast. Sca
conditions for seas (potentially building to 5-8ft) will likely
linger into early next week as the flow remains onshore and with low
pressure over the ocean. By Tuesday night and Wednesday the wind
should become N and then SW as the low pulls well offshore. This
should allow seas to subside.

Akq watches warnings advisories
Md... None.

Nc... None.

Va... None.

Marine... Small craft advisory until 6 pm edt Sunday for anz630>632-634-
638.

Small craft advisory from 4 am to 10 pm edt Sunday for anz633.

Small craft advisory until 6 am edt Monday for anz650-652-654-
656-658.

Synopsis... Ajb cmf
near term... Ajb lkb
short term... Ajb ess
long term... Mrd
aviation... Ajb lkb
marine... Ajz


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi61 min NE 13 G 18 75°F 79°F1019.7 hPa (-0.4)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi61 min 1021 hPa (+0.0)
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi61 min N 5.1 G 7
44072 32 mi31 min ESE 12 G 16 75°F
44089 32 mi31 min 75°F3 ft
CHBV2 32 mi67 min NE 11 G 13 73°F 1019 hPa
44064 34 mi31 min NE 12 G 14 74°F 1019.4 hPa
44087 34 mi31 min 79°F2 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi31 min 73°F5 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 35 mi61 min NNE 14 G 17 75°F 1020.6 hPa (-0.3)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi61 min NNE 15 G 17 73°F 1019.8 hPa (+0.0)
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi61 min NE 14 G 16 75°F 80°F1019.9 hPa (-0.4)
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi67 min NE 14 G 15 75°F 1019.4 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi67 min 79°F1019.9 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi61 min NE 13 G 16 75°F 1019.6 hPa (-0.3)
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi67 min NNE 5.1 G 8.9 76°F 1020.2 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA17 mi86 minNNE 510.00 miOvercast76°F64°F68%1020.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
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Sat -- 12:21 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:59 AM EDT     3.81 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:56 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 03:21 PM EDT     4.56 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 10:16 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.53.23.73.83.62.92.11.30.90.811.62.53.54.24.54.543.12.31.61.20.91

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 12:20 AM EDT     Moonrise
Sat -- 02:27 AM EDT     3.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:26 AM EDT     Sunrise
Sat -- 08:21 AM EDT     0.77 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:49 PM EDT     4.22 feet High Tide
Sat -- 02:53 PM EDT     Moonset
Sat -- 07:43 PM EDT     Sunset
Sat -- 09:41 PM EDT     0.90 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.73.23.53.53.12.31.510.80.81.21.92.93.74.14.23.93.32.51.81.310.91.2

Weather Map and Satellite Images
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NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (16,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerious of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.