Saturday, December7, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Nassawadox, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 4:48PM Saturday December 7, 2019 1:09 AM EST (06:09 UTC) Moonrise 2:20PMMoonset 2:19AM Illumination 78% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 10 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ654 Coastal Waters From Parramore Island To Cape Charles Light Va Out 20 Nm- 1246 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
.small craft advisory in effect through this afternoon...
Rest of tonight..N winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 4 seconds.
Sat..N winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 10 to 15 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds, subsiding to 3 ft with a dominant period of 5 seconds in the afternoon.
Sat night..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas 2 to 3 ft with a dominant period of 6 seconds.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly E swell with a dominant period of 7 seconds.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Seas 2 to 3 ft, building to 4 ft late. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Showers likely.
Mon night..S winds 15 to 20 kt. Gusts up to 30 kt after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue..SW winds 20 to 25 kt. Seas 5 to 6 ft. A chance of showers.
Tue night..W winds 15 to 20 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas 5 to 6 ft. Rain likely.
Wed..NW winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Seas 4 to 5 ft. A chance of rain in the morning.
Wed night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Seas 4 to 5 ft.
ANZ600 1246 Am Est Sat Dec 7 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A cold front crosses the area this morning with high pressure returning for the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the great lakes region early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in for the mid week period.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Nassawadox, VA
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location: 37.4, -75.72     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 070519 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1219 AM EST Sat Dec 7 2019

SYNOPSIS. A cold front moves off the coast before sunrise. High pressure builds into the area over the weekend. Low pressure tracks across the Great Lakes region early next week, dragging a strong cold front across the area Tuesday night. Canadian high pressure builds in on Thursday before moving offshore by late Friday.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 945 PM EST Friday .

Late this evening, a cold front was pushing through nrn VA/MD/DE. Also, sfc high pressure was building into the upper Midwest. Latest radar showed very light showers moving across NE NC. Otherwise, the sky ranged from partly cloudy to cloudy over the CWA with temps ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s.

The cold front will drop across the region overnight. Isolated light showers will push SE of the area and off the coast in the next few hours. Decreasing clouds from NW to SE overnight into Sat morning. Winds become north allowing for some CAA to set in. Lows by 12Z Sat mainly in the 30s except for lower 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

Sunny but cool Sat as high pressure builds into the Northeast CONUS and the sfc flow turns to the NNE. Not particularly cold for early December (850 mb temps of -1 to -3C) with highs ranging from the mid 40s N to the upper 40s S. Clear w/ light winds Sat night as the high becomes centered over srn New England, with sfc ridging extending SSW into our area. Given the clear skies/light winds, went a bit cooler than model consensus Sat night. Forecast lows are mainly in the mid 20s inland, with low 30s across coastal SE VA/NE NC. The high pushes offshore of the New England coast on Sun. This allows the sfc flow to become SSE, veering to the WSW in the mid-levels. This will allow WAA to commence on Sun. Deep-layer moisture starts to increase during the latter half of the day on Sun as a series of disturbances in WSW-SW flow aloft approach the local area (as a trough aloft starts to amplify in the Rockies/High Plains). In addition, a trough of low pressure develops at the sfc along the Carolina coast by Sun evening. Milder Sun with highs ranging from the upper 40s NW to the upper 50s SE.

Rain quickly develops/moves into the area Sun night from S to N as a warm mid-level airmass overruns relatively cooler air near the surface. This happens as the weak trough of low pressure approaches from the S. PoPs of 30-50% during the evening increase to 60-70% in most areas after 06z Mon. QPFs through 12z Mon are mainly in the 0.1-0.25" range. Lows Monday morning range from around 40F N to around 50F SE. Periods of showers continue throughout the day on Mon as the first upper level disturbance/area of sfc low pressure crosses the region. Models are hinting at a (relative) lull in the pcpn across sern zones during the latter half of the day on Mon, while numerous showers move across northern/western portions of the CWA (w/ somewhat of an in-situ wedge lingering across the Piedmont). Adjusted PoPs to reflect this thinking (chc PoPs across SE VA/NE NC with likely PoPs north/west from 18z Mon-00z Tue). Highs Mon range from the low-mid 50s NW to the mid-upper 60s SE.

LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 345 PM EST Friday .

The aforementioned trough aloft quickly amplifies across the Midwest Mon night-Tue as strong sfc low pressure deepens as it tracks from the Upper Midwest to SE Canada. A series of upper disturbances (in SW flow aloft) will continue to track toward/across the region through Tue as the associated cold front slowly approaches from the W/NW. Strong WAA will continue through Tue (850 mb temps rising to 8-11C by 12z Tue) under deep-layered SW flow. With the area likely remaining in the warm sector from Mon night-Tue, expect at least a chc of (occasional) showers to continue from Mon night through the first part of the day on Tue. Have PoPs in the 30-60% range for the most part from 00-18z Tue, as most of the rain will remain to our west through midday Tue (latest 12z/06 models are slowing the eastward progression of the upper trough axis). Mild Monday night with lows mainly in the 50s.

It is still looking like the frontal passage holds off until sometime during the latter half of the day on Tue. As a result, look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday . with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads/NE NC. PoPs increase to 60-70% by Tue aftn in all areas except for far SE VA/NE NC as the upper trough axis continues to slowly move toward the region. The cold front is progged to move S of the CWA by late Tue night, but a long-duration light to moderate rain is expected to continue before ending from NW to SE Wed AM (as the upper trough axis finally approaches/crosses the region). As cooler air filters into the region behind the front Tue night, the rain is expected to change over to snow in areas to our NW (while a cold rain continues across our CWA). Cannot rule out a brief changeover to snow (or a rain/snow mix) closer to 12z Wed across our far NW zones, but not expecting any impacts from snow that does fall (temps remain above freezing). Additionally, 12z/06 EPS probabilities of at least 1" of snow are only 10-20% across Louisa/Fluvanna counties from Tue night-Wed AM. Lows Tue night range from the mid 30s north/west to the low-mid 40s in SE VA/NE NC.

It will be dry but colder from Wed aftn-Thu as strong high pressure builds into the Great Lakes by midweek before quickly migrating eastward. The high becomes centered near/over the local area by Thursday evening. This will result in a short- lived period of below average temperatures from Wed night-Thu night, due to cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Forecast highs are mainly in the mid-upper 40s on Wed (some readings around 50 across the SE), Colder on Thu with highs ranging from the upper 30s-low 40s. Lows Wed night/Thu night mainly in the 20s (although some teens are possible across NW zones). Model consensus is forecasting the high to move offshore of the New England Coast on Fri as low pressure develops near the Gulf Coast. This low will likely track across our region next weekend. However, it is looking like any threat for impacts due to wintry precipitation will likely remain N of the region (12z EPS probs for 1" of snow are ~0% across our CWA next weekend).

AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 1220 AM EST Saturday .

A cold front pushes se overnight before moving offshore by 12Z. BKN mid level cloud deck (6-10K FT) conts to push se over the next svrl hrs. Winds shift to the NNE behind the fropa.

High pressure builds into the area today resulting in mainly SKC conditions thru the weekend.

OUTLOOK . Periods of showers dvlp late Sun night through Tue night, as low pressure tracks well to our NW (which will drag a strong cold front through the region). Degraded flight conditions are likely during this time period (due to both CIGs/VSBYs).

MARINE. As of 300 PM EST Friday .

SW winds are currently running 10-15 kt, except 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt off the lower Eastern Shore. These winds will continue through the evening hours ahead of a cold front. Waves 1-2 ft; seas 2-4 ft (highest north). SCAs remain in effect north of Parramore Island.

Winds become N/NW late tonight into early Saturday after the front crosses the area waters. Winds increase to 15-20 kts in the bay with gusts to 25 kts, and 20-25 kts with gusts to around 30 kts in the coastal waters. Waves in the bay build to 2-4 ft and seas build to 3- 5 ft in the middle and northern coastal waters and 4-6 ft in the southern coastal waters. SCA will be in effect for the bay, rivers, coastal waters, and Currituck sound from early Saturday morning through early Saturday afternoon, lingering into Saturday evening for the southern coastal waters and Currituck sound.

Winds along with waves/seas will subside by late Saturday night as the pressure gradient relaxes and high pressure builds into the area for the remainder of the weekend.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ635>638-654. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634-650-652. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EST this evening for ANZ633- 656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MPR?ERI NEAR TERM . ERI/TMG SHORT TERM . ERI/MPR LONG TERM . ERI AVIATION . MPR MARINE . JDM


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 14 mi57 min NW 1 G 2.9 50°F 45°F1020.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 18 mi57 min NW 8.9 G 9.9 1021.7 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 22 mi57 min W 6 G 7
44072 32 mi39 min N 5.8 G 5.8 50°F
44089 32 mi39 min 50°F3 ft
CHBV2 32 mi63 min W 13 G 14 51°F 1019.3 hPa
44064 34 mi39 min WNW 7.8 G 9.7 50°F 1020.4 hPa
44087 34 mi39 min 49°F1 ft
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 34 mi39 min 49°F1 ft
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 35 mi51 min WNW 9.9 G 11 51°F 1021.2 hPa
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 36 mi51 min WSW 6 G 11 52°F 1020.6 hPa
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 42 mi57 min W 6 G 7 52°F 48°F1020.4 hPa
WDSV2 - 8638614 - Willoughby Deguassing , VA 43 mi57 min W 7 G 8 1020 hPa
SWPV2 - 8638610 - Sewells Point, VA 45 mi57 min 1020.5 hPa
CRYV2 - 8638595 - South Craney Island, VA 48 mi51 min W 6 G 8.9 53°F 1020.4 hPa
DOMV2 - 8638511 - Dominion Terminal Association, VA 48 mi57 min WNW 6 G 7 1020.9 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA17 mi94 minWNW 710.00 miPartly Cloudy51°F38°F62%1021 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrS3Calm--SE3SE3--SE6S6S9--------SW9--SW9SW10
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1 day ago--W9--NW17
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2 days agoNE3NE5Calm----NE4--------Calm----W7----SW6--W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Great Machipongo Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Great Machipongo Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:34 AM EST     4.03 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:50 AM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 04:51 PM EST     3.82 feet High Tide
Sat -- 10:56 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.222.93.5443.52.82.11.40.80.60.91.72.53.23.73.83.52.71.91.10.40.2

Tide / Current Tables for Quinby Inlet entrance, Virginia
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Quinby Inlet entrance
Click for Map
Sat -- 02:19 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 04:02 AM EST     3.72 feet High Tide
Sat -- 07:03 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 10:15 AM EST     0.57 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 02:19 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 04:19 PM EST     3.53 feet High Tide
Sat -- 04:44 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 10:21 PM EST     0.19 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.52.333.53.73.52.92.31.610.60.71.322.73.23.53.42.92.11.30.70.20.3

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (1,6,7,8)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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