Thursday, December5, 2019
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.
6/2/2019. Many thanks to a user for reporting an error on one of the Edit pages. The switch to PHP 7.2 caused many pages that previously worked to quit working. I fixed many but I still depend on users to report ones I missed. Please report errors HERE or send an email to me at L-36.com. Allen

Sunrise 7:07AMSunset 4:53PM Thursday December 5, 2019 3:29 PM EST (20:29 UTC) Moonrise 1:35PMMoonset 12:33AM Illumination 65% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 9 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 122 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
.small craft advisory in effect until 4 pm est this afternoon...
This afternoon..W winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 20 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..W winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot.
Fri night..W winds 10 kt, becoming N after midnight. Waves 1 foot.
Sat..NE winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sat night..NE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun..E winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Sun night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Mon night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
ANZ600 122 Pm Est Thu Dec 5 2019
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. A weak trough of low pressure moves away from the local waters this morning. High pressure builds near the region this afternoon and tonight. A cold front crosses the region late Friday with high pressure returning over the weekend.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 051732 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1232 PM EST Thu Dec 5 2019

SYNOPSIS. A weak trough of low pressure moves through the area early this morning, with high pressure building in from the southwest today. A weak front crosses the area late Friday into early Saturday with high pressure returning for the weekend.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/. As of 1000 AM EST Thursday .

Late morning weather analysis shows upper troughing centered from ern Canada to New England, with largely zonal flow over the remainder of the CONUS. At the surface, ~1023 mb high pressure was over the Deep South, with weak, double-barreled low pressure over the Plains. Skies are mainly clear this morning (except on the Lower MD Ern Shore), as the aforementioned upper trough continues to move away from the local area. W-NW surface flow prevails across the area (in between the high to the SW and low to the NE). Gusty winds to 15-25 mph (around 30 mph near the eastern shore) will continue through early evening before calming down as the high builds toward the area. Clearing skies and downslope flow will allow temps to rebound to the lower 50s in most areas this afternoon with perhaps a few mid 50s SW/upper 40s across the Lower Ern Shore. The high becomes centered over ern NC tonight, with mainly clear skies expected (although SCT high clouds are possible after midnight . especially W of I-95). Overnight lows will mainly be in the upper 20s-low 30s.

SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/. As of 200 AM EST Thursday .

On Friday the surface high will be off the Carolina coast. Meanwhile, a weak low pressure system will drift from the southern plains to the deep south. Resultant low-level flow backs to the S/SW ahead of the approaching low and its associated frontal system. Forecast soundings indicate that moisture increases in the mid and upper levels, however the lower levels remain dry. Latest 00Z models are consistent with previous runs that little to no precip falls across our forecast area, so it will likely be a cloudy but dry day. However, the southerly flow will help nudge temps up several degrees, expect high temps in the low to mid 50s.

A cold front associated with a low over the northeast will cross the area early Saturday morning. No precip is expected with the frontal passage, but there will be modest cold air advection behind the front. Temps Saturday morning will be in the upper 20s NW, low to mid 30s elsewhere except for coastal NE NC and SE VA where low temps will be in the upper 30s. Strong high pressure builds in behind the front on Saturday. While it will be mostly sunny, the cool N/NW flow will hold high temps to the mid and upper 40s.

LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 245 PM EST Wednesday .

High pressure of Pacific origin pulls across and settles over the area from the NW on Sat night before moving offshore by Sun evening. It will be noticeably colder behind the front on Sat, with forecast highs in the mid 40s in most areas. Cold with lows in the mid- upper 20s inland/low-mid 30s near the coast Sat night. Highs Sun range from around 50F NW to the mid- upper 50s in coastal SE VA/NE NC.

Models are forecasting a trough aloft to quickly amplify across the Plains early next week, which will cause us to go into SW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic region. This would allow return moisture to increase Sun night and Monday, as a series of upper disturbances track toward/across the region. In addition, it will be milder from Sun night-Mon as return flow develops and low pressure deepens as it tracks well to our NW. With the area (or at least much of the area) likely becoming entrenched in the warm sector, expect a good chc of (occasional) showers starting later Sun night through Mon night, as the associated cold front approaches (slowly) from the W/NW. Have PoPs increasing to ~40-50% area wide on Mon to account for scattered showers. Lows Sun night mainly in the 40s, with temperatures holding or rising slightly into Monday morning. Mild Monday w/ highs in the upper 50s to low 60s in the piedmont west of RIC . low-mid 60s east of I-95, with lows in the 50s.

12z ECMWF is again a bit slower with the frontal passage during the day on Tuesday, which makes sense given the amplified pattern Look for highs well into the 60s on Tuesday. with the potential for some low 70s in Hampton Roads with any aftn sun. high chance to likely PoPs continue with the front crossing into the area later Tue into Tuesday night preceding the frontal passage Tuesday night into early Wed.

Looking ahead . a rather short-lived period of sharply colder air is expected across our area Wed/Thu, with cold Canadian air sweeping across the region behind the departing front. Temperatures will average 10-15 degF below normal Wed/Thu of next week before moderating thereafter.

AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/. As of 1230 PM EST Thursday .

VFR conditions prevail through the 18z TAF period. It is mainly clear across VA, with just FEW-SCT CU (5-7k feet). Still some BKN CIGs around 5-6k feet in/near SBY at this hour. In addition, W-NW winds are gusting to 20-25 kt near the coast. Low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes will continue to track away from the region tonight as high pressure builds toward the Carolinas. This will allow winds to diminish to 5-10 kt by this evening at all sites before decreasing to aob 5 kt tonight. Skies will become clear across all areas by this evening (and remain so through much of tonight) before BKN mid-high clouds increase on Friday ahead of a low pressure system/associated cold front. CIGs likely remain no lower than 8-10k feet through 18z Fri.

The front crosses the region from N to S Fri evening-Fri night. The chc of pcpn is very low (aob 20%) with the frontal passage (highest PoPs at ECG). CIGs/VSBYs are expected to remain VFR Fri aftn-Fri night. SW winds increase to 10-12 kt on Fri (a few gusts of 15-20 kt possible). Winds turn to the W/NW behind the front. High pressure then builds in for the weekend. Mainly VFR CIGs/VSBYs are expected through the weekend.

MARINE. As of 235 AM EST Thursday .

A weak trough of lo pres crossing the local waters early this morning will usher in a period of low level CAA for much of today. W winds 10-20 kt becoming WNW 15 to 25 kt resulting in some increase in waves/seas into/through this afternoon. Winds and waves/seas diminishing/subside late tonight and continue into Fri morning. SW winds will increase to 10-20 kt Fri afternoon before another cold front moves off the coast Fri evening/night. Winds will increase (N 20-25 kt) by early Sat morning. Winds will be N 10-15 kt Sat afternoon as hi pres return to the region.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ630>632-634>638. Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ633- 654-656. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ650- 652. Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ658.

SYNOPSIS . CMF/LKB NEAR TERM . CMF/ERI SHORT TERM . CMF/MAM LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . CMF/ERI MARINE . ALB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44041 - Jamestown, VA 37 mi47 min 49°F 1016.7 hPa
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi59 min WNW 6 50°F 1017 hPa25°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi59 min WNW 8.9 G 17 1015.4 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA5 mi33 minW 910.00 miFair53°F24°F32%1017.2 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi35 minW 910.00 miFair54°F24°F31%1016.6 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi34 minW 7 G 1610.00 miFair53°F21°F29%1016.6 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi35 minWNW 8 G 1810.00 miFair53°F21°F28%1016.2 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCI

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrSW6SW4W5W7W9W5SW45SW5SW5W6W7NW3W3W6SW4SW4SW4SW5NW10W13W10W8W9
1 day agoW5CalmCalmCalmSW3CalmCalmSW3W3CalmW3W4N3W3W3W4CalmSW4W4SW3W7SW7W7W10
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Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 05:10 AM EST     0.18 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:52 AM EST     2.89 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:36 PM EST     0.28 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:13 PM EST     2.85 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.41.81.20.70.30.20.30.91.72.42.82.92.72.11.510.60.30.30.71.52.22.62.8

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Thu -- 12:33 AM EST     Moonset
Thu -- 04:52 AM EST     0.15 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 07:08 AM EST     Sunrise
Thu -- 10:48 AM EST     2.55 feet High Tide
Thu -- 01:34 PM EST     Moonrise
Thu -- 04:51 PM EST     Sunset
Thu -- 05:18 PM EST     0.24 feet Low Tide
Thu -- 11:09 PM EST     2.51 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.11.50.90.50.20.20.411.62.22.52.52.31.81.20.70.40.30.30.71.422.32.5

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (15,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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