Monday, September28, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Bensley, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
8/26/2020 The 7 day forecast is taking about 5 seconds to load but it will eventually load. NOAA is still working on it.
8/18/2020 NOAA continues to have trouble. Wind guest will occasionally be left off graphs. I am working with NOAA to resolve the issue.
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 7:01AMSunset 6:58PM Monday September 28, 2020 2:03 AM EDT (06:03 UTC) Moonrise 4:52PMMoonset 2:43AM Illumination 84% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 11 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 1030 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Overnight..S winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A slight chance of showers late this evening, then a chance of showers.
Mon..S winds 5 kt, increasing to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers early in the morning.
Mon night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Tue..S winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt late. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the morning, then showers likely in the afternoon.
Tue night..S winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers.
Wed night..W winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt after midnight. Waves 1 foot. Showers, mainly in the evening.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Showers likely in the morning.
Thu night..W winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Fri..NW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers.
Fri night..NW winds 5 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of showers in the evening.
ANZ600 1030 Pm Edt Sun Sep 27 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak high pressure remains near the local waters through Monday. Low pressure moves through the region Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday, with a cold front crossing the mid-atlantic waters Wednesday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Bensley, VA
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location: 37.43, -77.43     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 280515 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 115 AM EDT Mon Sep 28 2020

SYNOPSIS. Weak trough crosses the Mid Atlantic today. A slow moving cold front approaches the area early this week and crosses the area late Wednesday into early Thursday. Drier and much cooler conditions for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/. As of 945 PM EDT Sunday .

Forecast is largely on track this evening. Did nudge PoPs into the chance category as weakening shortwave energy aloft traverses the area. Showers will be relatively short-lived at any one location but the system will take some time to cross from west to east tonight into early Monday. Light and variable winds and cloudy skies will prevail tonight with some fog possible before conditions improve after sunrise. Lows tonight in the 60s.

SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/. As of 300 PM EDT Sunday .

Shortwave energy exits the local area Monday morning, while a deep trough digs across the central US through the day. This will result in deep layered SSW flow developing across the East coast into Monday night. With the weak wave passing Monday morning and then additional moisture arriving in the afternoon and Monday Night will maintain slight chc to low end chc PoPs (20-30%) for most areas. Partly to mostly cloudy and a bit warmer with highs in the upper 70s to low 80s. Lows Monday night in the 60s to around 70.

A cut off low digs into the deep south on Tuesday, and a front will approach the local area from the west. Deep southerly moisture increases with PWAT values over the eastern half of the area increasing to 1.75-2.25 inches by Tuesday afternoon. Chance pops become likely by midday Tuesday into the afternoon (and then categorical Tuesday night) with the heaviest rain potential occurring just along and ahead of the front late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Resultant deformation axis and enhanced lift from a strong jet aloft in combination with the potent upper low pivoting ENE through the Deep South will tend to heighten threat of heavy rain and possible localized flooding Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. The strong upper low is then expected to lift NE into the Carolinas on Wed before quickly crossing the mid-Atlantic region Wed night while opening up into an upper trough. Additional rain, some heavy, will occur Wed and especially Wed night into Thursday morning and this in addition to the heavy rain potential Tues night will further exacerbate localized flooding potential. It's certainly possible that a flood watch will be needed for late Tuesday through Wed night or Thursday morning given the heavy rain potential. Current QPF amounts through 00Z Thu show widespread 1-3 inch rain amounts across our FA, although there will likely be higher amounts depending on where the heaviest rain sets up. Currently WPC has most of the area in a slight risk for excessive rain for 12z Tue-12z Wed and this will most likely be expanded through 12z Thu when the new Day 2/3 ERO comes out. With the rain/cloud cover expected on Tuesday, went on the cool side of guidance for temps, with afternoon highs ranging from the mid to upper 70s. Low temps Tuesday night upper 50s NW to upper 60s SE. High temps Wed over the west will struggle to hit 70, with mid and upper 70s expected over the SE. Low temps Wednesday night will range from the lower 50s NW to around 60 close to the coast.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 300 PM EDT Sunday .

Drier conditions for Thursday (after slight chc for linger showers in the AM) before introducing some low end PoPs with the next frontal boundary that may move across the area on Friday ahead of the broad trough and cooler temperatures expected by the weekend. Highs Thursday generally in the 70s. Highs Fri-Sat in the 60s. Low temps Thursday night upper 40s NW to upper 50s SE. Friday and Saturday night's low temps mid 40s to mid 50s.

AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 115 AM EDT Monday .

VFR conditions to start the period. BKN to OVC mid and high clouds overnight, although some MVFR ceilings may impact SBY early this morning. For now will them at VFR. Patchy fog early this morning, but not expected to be as widespread as last night. Slight chance of showers early this morning but activity is expected to be light and not impact flight categories. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z and then VFR is expected through the remainder of the period. Winds will be southerly 10 kts or less.

Outlook . Rain showers ahead of a front approaching from the west will impact the region on Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in periods of sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities.

MARINE. As of 200 PM EDT Sunday .

Sub-SCA conditions to prevail through Tue morning . then potentially SCA headlines by late Tue into Wed night as lo pres tracks NE along the coast. A cold front pushes across the local waters Wed night.

VRB to SSE winds (avgg BLO 10 kt) this evening into tonight. Seas will avg 2-4 ft while waves on the Bay and rivers only around 1 foot (1-2 ft at the mouth of the Bay). S winds will avg 10-15 kt Mon and Tue . w/ the potential for an increase to 15-20 kt (esp Bay/ocean) by late Tue/Tue night as sfc lo pres approaches from the SSW Waves to 2-3 ft. seas to 4-5 ft.

Lo pres crosses the waters late Wed/Wed night. Still quite a bit of uncertainty for a high confidence forecast past Wed. Best chance for SCA conditions (after Tue night) will be Wed night into Thursday morning as lo pres and its accompanying cold front exit. A secondary cold front enters the region late Thu.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . None.

SYNOPSIS . JDM NEAR TERM . JDM SHORT TERM . CMF/JDM LONG TERM . JDM AVIATION . CMF MARINE . ALB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi93 min Calm 66°F 1015 hPa65°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 52 mi45 min S 5.1 G 5.1 68°F 70°F1013.1 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
(wind in knots)    EDIT      (on/off)   Help
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Chesterfield County Airport, VA5 mi67 minS 410.00 miFair65°F64°F100%1014.7 hPa
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA8 mi69 minS 510.00 miMostly Cloudy66°F64°F93%1013.9 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA17 mi68 minS 310.00 miFair65°F62°F92%1014.2 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA19 mi69 minN 010.00 miFair67°F64°F91%1013.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KFCI

Wind History from FCI (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrW3NW5CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalmNW4W5W33S3SE3S3CalmCalmS4S4S4S4S4SW3
1 day agoE3NE6N5CalmNE3N5N6N43N5NW3W7NW5NW7N5NW3NW3NW3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmW3
2 days agoCalmSW3S4CalmW3CalmCalmCalmS3CalmSE4E5E5E6E5E5E4E4NW5NW7NE4N3NW3E3

Tide / Current Tables for Falling Creek entrance, James River, Virginia
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Falling Creek entrance
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:08 AM EDT     3.67 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:44 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:03 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:19 AM EDT     0.38 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:37 PM EDT     3.48 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:30 PM EDT     0.40 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.83.43.73.53.12.51.91.40.80.40.51.22.12.93.43.43.12.51.91.30.80.50.51.1

Tide / Current Tables for Curles, 1 mile north of, James River, Virginia
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Curles
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:04 AM EDT     3.23 feet High Tide
Mon -- 03:43 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 07:02 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 09:01 AM EDT     0.32 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 02:33 PM EDT     3.06 feet High Tide
Mon -- 05:51 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 06:56 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 09:12 PM EDT     0.34 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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2.533.23.12.62.11.61.10.60.30.61.222.6332.72.11.61.10.60.30.51.1

Weather Map
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wmap_A
GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
Link to Loop

Other links: Northern Pacific     Contential US     Full GOES-East
Ground Weather Radar Station Wakefield, VA
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