Saturday, February27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Montrose, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 6:41AMSunset 6:03PM Saturday February 27, 2021 5:24 AM EST (10:24 UTC) Moonrise 6:33PMMoonset 7:15AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ636 York River- 317 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Through 7 am..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Rain. Patchy fog. Vsby 1 to 3 nm.
Today..S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming sw. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog in the morning. Rain until late afternoon, then a chance of showers late. Vsby 1 to 3 nm in the morning.
Tonight..SW winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain after midnight.
Sun..SE winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming S 10 to 15 kt in the afternoon. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the morning.
Sun night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain in the evening, then rain likely after midnight.
Mon..NW winds 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Rain, mainly in the morning.
Mon night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late evening and overnight. Waves 1 foot.
Tue..N winds 10 to 15 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tue night..SE winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain and snow after midnight.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. A chance of rain.
Wed night..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
ANZ600 317 Am Est Sat Feb 27 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Weak low pressure moves north along the coast this morning. A series of weak systems will bring unsettled weather over the local waters into Monday. A strong cold front crosses the mid-atlantic region Monday night.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Montrose, VA
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location: 37.53, -77.42     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 270840 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 340 AM EST Sat Feb 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. A weak area of low pressure will track up the North Carolina coast through this morning and track northeast of the region by this afternoon. A warm front will lift north through the area Saturday night and early Sunday, followed by a cold front that will cross the area from the northwest Sunday night through Monday. High pressure returns Monday night through Tuesday before potentially another system impacts the region Wednesday.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 330 AM EST Saturday .

Early this morning, a weak area of low pressure is tracking along/near the NC coast with a warm front moving up the coast. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered off the NE coast, allowing for a wedge of cooler air to linger across western portions of the area. Rain chances remain will remain high through the early morning hours as moisture associated with the low pressure continues to filter into the region from the south. There are a wide range in temperatures across the region this morning, from the mid to upper 30s W and NW where wedging remains in place to the low to mid 50s SE. Temperatures will continue to slowly rise this morning, especially E/SE, as the warm front slowly makes its way north.

The weak area of low pressure lifts NE of the region by this afternoon, which will allow for rain chances to diminish/become more showery this afternoon into this evening. Generally have PoPs decreasing from S to N through this morning with slight chance to chance PoPs lingering across the northern half of the area through this afternoon. Skies will generally remain mostly cloudy today, though some clearing may try to work into NE NC later this afternoon. Temperatures will range from the mid to upper 50s across the north to the mid to upper 60s S and SE (around 70 far SE).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/. As of 330 AM EST Saturday .

Tomorrow, a warm frontal boundary will linger across the region in the morning, before lifting into far northern portions of the area (or just north of it) by Sunday afternoon. Will have to watch for the potential for some fog, especially over the waters, tonight into tomorrow morning as warmer/moist air filters into the area. Otherwise, still expecting the highest rain chances to be limited to the northern tier of the region tonight through the day tomorrow, though all of the area has at least the chance for a spotty shower. Tomorrow's high temperatures will be dependent on how far north the warm front makes it, but temperatures have the potential to be quite mild. Could see quite a gradient across the region depending on the front's progress. Currently have highs ranging from the upper 50s to lower 60s across far northern portions of the area and across the Eastern Shore to the lower 70s for much of the southern 2/3rds of the area. Once again, highs tomorrow will be highly dependent on the progress of the warm front. Rain chances increase once again tomorrow evening into tomorrow night/Monday morning as the frontal boundary slides back SE as a cold front. Have continued high categorical PoPs for much of the area Sunday night through midday Monday. Model soundings also show a bit of instability across SE portions of the region Sunday evening/night, so wouldn't be shocked if there were a rumble of thunder or two somewhere across the area, though not enough confidence to include in the forecast at this time.

As the front pushes SE and away from the area Monday afternoon, will show decreasing PoPs from NW to SE. However, it may take until Monday evening for pcpn to end across NE NC. Storm total QPF tonight through the Monday is still on track to range from around 1.50" across the N/NW half of the FA to 0.50-1.0" across the far SE VA and NE NC. It should be noted that river forecast ensemble guidance is in agreement in showing the potential for minor to locally moderate river flooding to occur early next week if the forecast QPF amounts verify. We've already sent a briefing out to address this potential.

By Monday night, skies become mostly clear with low temperatures dripping back into the 20s and lower 30s.

LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 330 AM EST Saturday .

The frontal boundary pushes well south of the region Mon night into Tue, with cool high pressure building in from the north. Models then diverge on their solutions from later Tue through Thu. The GFS still maintains dry wx during this period, keeping any systems well south of the area. While the 00z ECMWF brings another system up into and across the region Tue night through Wed. Generally didn't stray too far from the National Blend of Models due to the continued uncertainty, which has chance PoPs across much of the region Wednesday morning/afternoon. Could also see a bit of a rain/snow mix at the onset of the event Tuesday night/Wednesday morning, but this will remain highly dependent on the timing of the system. Mainly dry wx for later Wed through Thu. Generally near normal or slight above normal temps expected for most of the extended period.

AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 1245 AM EST Saturday .

IFR ceilings will continue to overspread all TAF sites from SW to NE early this morning. Rain/fog also lingers through much of the early morning hours into the afternoon leading to periods of sub-VFR visibilities. Rain showers become more scattered later this morning and afternoon. Expect a slow improving trend in ceilings later this morning through this afternoon from south to north as a warm front lifts north across the region. VFR conditions are anticipated later this afternoon/evening at all sites outside of SBY where sub-VFR ceilings may linger into the overnight hours. ESE winds around 10 kt this morning becoming SSW by this afternoon at 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK: A series of low pressure systems/frontal boundaries will affect the area from this weekend through Mon, bringing periodic flight restrictions in both rain/fog.

MARINE. As of 145 AM EST Saturday .

Very weak Lo pres tracks NNE near the local waters this morning and combined w/ sfc hi pres E of New England will result in increased SE winds (mainly over the ocean) becoming SSW. Wind probs and model blends keep wind speeds just blo SCA criteria. Lowered WSW winds midday/this afternoon as that lo pres system lifts NE away from the region. SCAs (mainly for seas aoa 5 ft) will stay up for seas into the afternoon/through the evening (N). VRB winds blo 10 kt tonight as a weak sfc boundary settles S over the local waters. A warm front lifts N across the region. That warm front likely to pull N of the srn portion of the FA waters Sun (and winds become SSW avgg 10-20 kt) but may struggle far N. A cold front crosses the local waters late Sun night w/ winds becoming NNW (eventually increasing to SCAs (maybe low end gales over nrn portions) . esp after a secondary cold frontal passage late Mon/Mon night.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for ANZ634. Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for ANZ652- 654. Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for ANZ656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EST Sunday for ANZ650.

SYNOPSIS . AJB NEAR TERM . AJB/ERI SHORT TERM . AJB/JDM LONG TERM . AJB/JDM AVIATION . AJB/MPR MARINE . ALB


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
YRSV2 - Chesapeake Bay,VA 38 mi114 min SSE 2.9 46°F 1022 hPa45°F
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 54 mi54 min SSE 4.1 G 9.9 51°F 42°F1019.9 hPa

Wind History for Yorktown USCG Training Center, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Richmond, Richmond International Airport, VA6 mi30 minN 79.00 miLight Rain41°F40°F96%1021.6 hPa
Ashland, Hanover County Municipal Airport, VA12 mi30 minVar 35.00 miLight Rain Fog/Mist40°F37°F89%1021.6 hPa
Petersburg, Dinwiddie County Airport, VA24 mi29 minN 35.00 miLight Rain41°F39°F94%1021.3 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KRIC

Wind History from RIC (wind in knots)
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Last 24hrCalmCalmNE7NE9E8NE8E6E7E9E11E7E6E9NE5NE9E9NE6NE9NE6NE5N5N5N8N7
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N9E9N643E4CalmE3E5E5SE5S3CalmCalmCalmNE3CalmCalmCalm
2 days agoCalmSE3SE3SE7SE7S9S13S12SW9SW12SW14S14S10S9S11S11SW10SW10S11SW9SW5SW3W6NW7

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond (river locks), James River, Virginia
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Richmond (river locks)
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 04:18 AM EST     3.32 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 11:34 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:38 PM EST     3.54 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.10.822.93.33.22.82.11.40.70.2-0.1-0.10.51.72.83.43.53.22.51.81.10.50.1

Tide / Current Tables for Richmond Deepwater Terminal, James River, Virginia
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Richmond Deepwater Terminal
Click for Map
Sat -- 03:19 AM EST     Full Moon
Sat -- 03:49 AM EST     3.43 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:43 AM EST     Sunrise
Sat -- 07:14 AM EST     Moonset
Sat -- 10:59 AM EST     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Sat -- 04:09 PM EST     3.66 feet High Tide
Sat -- 06:01 PM EST     Sunset
Sat -- 06:33 PM EST     Moonrise
Sat -- 11:29 PM EST     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.41.52.63.33.43.12.51.81.10.50-0.10.21.22.43.33.63.532.21.50.80.2-0.1

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NOTE: This section has been updated as of 1/26/2021. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may use the EDIT function to update your location.
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.