Tuesday, January26, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Painter, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:10AMSunset 5:25PM Tuesday January 26, 2021 6:36 PM EST (23:36 UTC) Moonrise 3:14PMMoonset 5:39AM Illumination 98% Phase: Waxing Gibbous; Moon at 13 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ630 Chesapeake Bay From Smith Point To Windmill Point Va- 402 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
.gale watch in effect from Thursday morning through Thursday evening...
Through 7 pm..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot.
Tonight..NW winds 5 to 10 kt. Waves 1 foot. Patchy fog late in the evening. Areas of fog after midnight. Vsby 1 to 3 nm late in the evening, decreasing to 1 nm or less.
Wed..NW winds 5 to 10 kt, increasing to 10 to 15 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Waves 1 to 2 ft. Areas of fog in the morning with vsby 1 nm or less.
Wed night..N winds 10 to 15 kt, increasing to 20 to 25 kt. Waves 2 to 3 ft, building to 3 to 4 ft late. A chance of snow and rain after midnight.
Thu..N winds 20 to 25 kt, becoming nw 25 to 30 kt in the late morning and afternoon. Gusts to around 35 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft. A chance of snow in the morning.
Thu night..NW winds 20 to 25 kt. Waves 4 to 5 ft.
Fri..NW winds 20 to 25 kt, diminishing to 15 to 20 kt in the afternoon. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Fri night..NW winds 15 to 20 kt. Waves 3 to 4 ft.
Sat..N winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming nw 5 to 10 kt in the afternoon. Waves 2 to 3 ft.
Sat night..N winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming E after midnight. Waves 1 to 2 ft.
ANZ600 402 Pm Est Tue Jan 26 2021
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Low pressure pushes farther out to sea through tonight. Another area of low pressure tracks south of the local area and off the coast late Wednesday into Thursday morning. High pressure builds into and across the region Thursday night through Saturday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Painter, VA
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location: 37.58, -75.78     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 262118 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 418 PM EST Tue Jan 26 2021

SYNOPSIS. Low pressure pushes farther offshore through tonight. Another area of low pressure tracks south of the local area late Wednesday into Thursday morning. High pressure builds across the region for the end of the week.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

Latest analysis reveals sfc low pressure off the DelMarVa coast this aftn. Cool air wedge extends well south into the western Carolinas. Sfc low pressure analyzed over W NY/NW PA this aftn, with the associated sfc front draped against the central Appalachians. Cool air wedge has held fast today, with temperatures locked in the 40s across most of the area this aftn. Expect some partial clearing early this evening with wind shift, only to see low clouds and areas of fog re-develop tonight as stalled boundary to the south pushes back north late. Have held PoPs out until near and after sunrise south of US-58 into North Carolina tomorrow. Lows from the l-m30s N and NW to the m40s far SE.

SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

For tomorrow, all eyes will turn to shortwave trough which opens up and slides east across the plains to the mid-south tomorrow, with its attendant sfc low crossing the deep south, reaching the western Carolinas by midnight tomorrow night.

Day begins overcast/mostly cloudy for most. Did maintain some low chance PoPs over the southern half of the area, but expect measurable rain to remain south of the local area. Overall, 12z models have continued to trend toward a rather dry sub-cloud layer, courtesy of cold 1036+mb sfc high ridging south into the local area from the northern plains.

Trend Pops up into high chance to likely range Late Wed aftn and after 00z/Thu (Wed night), with DPVA ahead of the approaching system from the TN Valley. Overall, model trends have continued to nudge toward a drier, faster solution, though models continue to depict a narrow stripe of frontogenetic forcing, with a rather short-lived period of modest dendritic omega sweeping across our southern tier of counties after midnight. Resultant dynamic cooling of the vertical column should result in mixed precipitation changing over to mostly snow. Best Isentropic overrunning (295-300k sfc) is over this same area. Thus, while some light flurries/snow showers are possible for central VA and the peninsula . best chance for (light) accumulating snowfall will be near and just before sunrise Thu morning over the eastern Tidewater and (more likely) NE NC.

At this time, snowfall accumulations will be less than 0.5" for most of the area, due to limited moisture. Farther south, our snow accumulations of 0.5 to around 1 inch have been added for the us- 17/158 corridor in NE NC and far Srn VA. This meshes well with 12z EPS Probs, which is in thr 30-50% range. Given marginal temps, would expect snow to be mainly limited to grassy surfaces. This will need to be watched for a potential Winter Wx Advisory with subsequent model runs.

Precip tapers off by mid-morning Thursday, with quick clearing later Thu morning and afternoon. Much cooler with highs in the upper 30s to low 40s Other issue will be probable wind headlines. N-NW winds become breezy/windy in its wake as clearing occurs. Gusts to 35-45 mph are expected . most likely at the coast. At this time, a Wind Advisory looks likely to be needed for at least the lower eastern shore, Hampton Roads and NE NC. Cold wind chills remain in the 30s all day, with highs right around 40.

LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/. As of 355 PM EST Tuesday .

High pressure centers over the area Friday then moves offshore Saturday. Temps will remain cool Friday with temps in the upper 30s/lower 40s then only slight warming into the low-mid 40s Saturday. Then, the medium range models have another area of low pressure moving through the Great Lakes then developing another low off the NE coast by Monday. The associated cold front will move through the region Sunday. Snow to rain poss Sunday morning before southerly flow allows for rain as temps warm into the 40s and lower 50s. (12Z/26 ECMWF ensembles do show an increase in prob snow accums 3" or more over portions of the piedmont, with yet another Miller-B set up modeled. GFS is a bit faster and more compact. Precip chances look good, so high end chance to likely PoPs are in order, but phase will take a bit more time to ascertain. ECMWF solution would portend to a snowier solution if the current idea is maintained. Drying out behind the system, but remaining cold relative to normal as mean east coast trough looks to set up. Stay tuned.

AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 1155 AM EST Tuesday .

Expect widespread IFR CIGS/IFR-MVFR VSBYS through early aftn w/residual low level moisture preventing significant improvement of CIGs through the 18z TAF period. Winds ENE to SW less than 10 kt.

Outlook: Conditions look to return to VFR Wed morning and hold through the aftn (MVFR possible at KECG). Sub-VFR conditions expected Wed night and Thu (KORF/KECG), as another low pres affects the FA, then moves offshore early Thu w/ additional flight restrictions due to low CIGs and pcpn. Becoming VFR and breezy/windy Thu. VFR conds then prevail Thu night-Sunday.

MARINE. As of 415 PM EST Tuesday .

Low pressure will push farther out to sea through tonight. WNW winds 5-10 kt this evening/tonight, will become NW or N 5-15 kt during Wed, as weak high pressure builds into/over the area. The next storm will then affect the local waters Wed night then exit quickly out to sea during Thu. By late Wed night into Thu morning, NNW winds will increase and become very strong in the wake of the storm Thu into Thu night. Despite the storm being quick to move through the region (as well as slower to strengthen offshore Thu/Thu night), solid Gales will be likely (strong SCAs for the Rivers (635-637)), and a Gale Watch is in effect for all the waters except River zns 635-637. Gusts 35-40 kt will be common for the Ches Bay/Currituck Sound/Coastal Waters and around 30 kt for the Rivers from early Thu morning through Thu evening. NW winds will slowly diminish Fri aftn into Fri night. Seas are expected to top out between 6-9 ft with waves on the Bay 4-5 ft.

HYDROLOGY. Flood Warning has been posted for the Meherrin River at Lawrenceville. Additional flood warnings may be needed later this week along the Nottoway River, and will need to monitor Stony Creek, and Sebrell.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . None. NC . None. VA . None. MARINE . Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday for ANZ635>637. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ANZ634. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday evening for ANZ630>633-638. Gale Watch from Thursday morning through late Thursday night for ANZ650-652-654. Gale Watch from late Wednesday night through late Thursday night for ANZ656-658.

SYNOPSIS . MAM NEAR TERM . ALB/MAM SHORT TERM . ALB/MAM LONG TERM . MAM AVIATION . MAM MARINE . TMG HYDROLOGY . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 5 mi216 min WNW 1.9 G 4.1 43°F 41°F1009.3 hPa (-1.1)
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 13 mi216 min NNW 8.9 G 8.9 1010.3 hPa (-1.3)
44089 27 mi190 min 45°F4 ft
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 31 mi216 min NNW 6 G 8 44°F
44072 37 mi196 min NNW 5.8 G 7.8 41°F
YKRV2 - 8637611 - York River East Rear Range Light, VA 37 mi216 min WNW 4.1 G 5.1 42°F
CHBV2 41 mi216 min NNW 7 G 7 42°F 1008.8 hPa (-0.9)
44042 - Potomac, MD 43 mi192 min WNW 7.8 G 7.8 38°F 41°F1010.8 hPa
44087 43 mi220 min 44°F2 ft
YKTV2 - 8637689 - Yorktown, VA 44 mi216 min NW 6 G 7 41°F 43°F1009.7 hPa (-1.2)
44099 - Cape Henry, VA (147) 46 mi190 min 46°F4 ft
BISM2 - 8571421 - Bishops Head, MD 46 mi216 min NNW 4.1 G 6 38°F 38°F1009.8 hPa (-1.6)
LWTV2 - 8635750 - Lewisetta, VA 46 mi216 min NNW 4.1 G 5.1 39°F 38°F1010.3 hPa (-1.0)
CHYV2 - 8638999 - Cape Henry, VA 47 mi216 min W 6 G 8.9 43°F 1010 hPa (-0.8)

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA5 mi41 minNW 34.00 miFog/Mist39°F38°F97%1010.5 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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E7NE3NE7E5E6E4E3W6NW6W5--W6CalmW4
1 day agoCalmCalmSW4SW6SW8SW4W3CalmCalmCalmCalmCalmCalm--E5E5----E4------SE4E5
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Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague, Wachapreague Channel, Virginia
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Wachapreague
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Tue -- 12:03 AM EST     0.00 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:38 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 06:47 AM EST     4.35 feet High Tide
Tue -- 07:10 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 01:01 PM EST     0.21 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 03:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 06:57 PM EST     3.50 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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00.31.122.83.64.24.33.93.22.31.40.60.20.51.222.73.33.53.22.41.50.7

Tide / Current Tables for Pungoteague Creek, Chesapeake Bay, Virginia
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Pungoteague Creek
Click for Map
Tue -- 03:27 AM EST     -0.01 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:39 AM EST     Moonset
Tue -- 07:11 AM EST     Sunrise
Tue -- 09:43 AM EST     1.75 feet High Tide
Tue -- 03:13 PM EST     Moonrise
Tue -- 04:30 PM EST     0.05 feet Low Tide
Tue -- 05:20 PM EST     Sunset
Tue -- 10:00 PM EST     1.39 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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0.80.40.2000.20.61.11.41.71.71.61.310.60.30.10.10.30.611.31.41.3

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