Monday, August3, 2020
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Marine Weather and Tides
Metompkin, VA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
12/16/2019 NOAA is having trouble with requests that include wind gusts. I am posting graphs without wind gusts until it gets fixed.
10/9/2019 Updated the Marine Zones.
9/4/2019 Fixed the weather maps due to NOAA moving them.
7/25/2019 New feature in the Airports section gives a link to 5 minute updates for data reports.

Sunrise 6:05AMSunset 8:11PM Monday August 3, 2020 1:50 PM EDT (17:50 UTC) Moonrise 7:34PMMoonset 4:48AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 14 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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ANZ652 Coastal Waters From Chincoteague To Parramore Island Va Out 20 Nm- 1145 Am Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
.tropical storm warning in effect...
This afternoon..SW winds 10 to 15 kt, becoming s. Seas 3 to 4 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A slight chance of showers and tstms.
Tonight..Tropical storm conditions possible. S winds 5 to 10 kt, becoming se 25 to 30 kt with gusts to 35 kt after midnight. Seas 4 to 5 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening, then a chance of rain after midnight.
Tue..Tropical storm conditions expected. SE winds 45 to 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, becoming sw 40 to 45 kt with gusts to 50 kt in the afternoon. Seas around 11 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds, building to 13 ft with a dominant period of 10 seconds in the afternoon. Rain likely until late afternoon. Showers likely late.
Tue night..SW winds 10 to 15 kt. Seas around 10 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds, subsiding to 6 ft with a dominant period of 9 seconds after midnight. A chance of showers early in the evening.
Wed..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 4 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds.
Wed night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 8 seconds. A chance of showers in the evening.
Thu..SE winds 5 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms in the late morning and afternoon.
Thu night..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Seas around 3 ft. Mainly se swell with a dominant period of 9 seconds. A chance of showers and tstms until early morning.
Fri..S winds 5 kt. Seas around 2 ft. Mainly S swell with a dominant period of 10 seconds. Showers and tstms likely in the late morning and afternoon.
Fri night..S winds 5 kt, becoming nw after midnight. Seas around 3 ft. Showers and tstms likely early in the evening, then a chance of showers and tstms in the late evening and early morning. Winds and seas higher in and near tstms.
ANZ600 1145 Am Edt Mon Aug 3 2020
Synopsis for fenwick island de to currituck beach light nc out 20 nautical miles including virginia portion of the chesapeake bay, currituck sound and portions of the james, york, and rappahannock rivers.. Southwest winds will become south southeast this afternoon. Please see the latest advisories from the national hurricane center concerning tropical storm isaias which will likely impact the region late Monday night through Tuesday.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Metompkin, VA
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location: 37.6, -75.36     debug


Area Discussion for - Wakefield, VA
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FXUS61 KAKQ 031426 AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 1026 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

SYNOPSIS. High pressure off the coast will remain in control over the local area into this afternoon. Please see the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center concerning Tropical cyclone Isaias which is forecast to impact the region later tonight into Tuesday afternoon.

NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/. As of 230 AM EDT Monday .

A band of showers/tstms is pushing nwd into NE NC late this morning. Warm and humid this morning with temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s Otw. sfc hi pres off the coast continues to nose itself W into the FA . and will do so through this morning Eventually this afternoon/early this evening. tropical moisture will begin to increase from the S . leading to the development of areas of SHRAs/tstms. Starting out at least partly sunny for all except far N-W then VRB clouds-mostly cloudy this afternoon. Highest PoPs (60-70%) will generally be W of I 95 . tapering to 30-40% E. Locally heavy rainfall and brief gusty winds are poss w/ any SHRAs/tstms later today. Highs in the m-u80s (could RIC break the 90F max streak?).

SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY/. As of 245 AM EDT Monday .

No big changes wrt forecast and impacts from TC Isaias late tonight/Tue. Forecast guidance continues to an inland track (landfall near the coast at the NC-SC border tonight). The storm will be moving rather briskly NNE thereafter . which brings it into the local area very late tonight into Tue afternoon (although there are still some timing differences amongst numerical guidance). Please refer to the official NHC forecast for exact details with respect to Isaias.

Impacts from Isaias are expected to arrive late tonight and continue into Tue afternoon. High potential exists for (widespread) heavy rain and breezy to windy conditions (for about a 6-8hr time frame at any particular location) . as well as the potential for isolated tornadoes (ern VA/the ern shore and NE NC). Have made only minor adjustments to the axis of heaviest rainfall and forecast QPF as the storm interacts w/ a trough aloft to the WNW and as a strong upper jet (100+kt at 200 mb) develops N of the tropical low. As this occurs the forward speed of the storm will increase. The latest QPF forecast is still for generally 4-6" along and W of the I-95 corridor . 3-5" over the interior coastal plain . and tapering to 1-2" toward the coast. A Flash Flood Watch remains in place for late this evening/tonight through Tue afternoon for most of the area . excluding coastal NE NC, SE VA and the Atlantic coast of the Ern Shore. Strong low-level shear and SRH are expected E of the track bringing a tornado potential initially to NE NC/SE VA late tonight . spreading nwd Tue. The tornado potential and the extent will be dependent on how much destabilization is able to occur E of the track along with the location of any surface boundaries.

Lows tonight in the u60s-l70s inland to the l-m70s at the coast. Highs Tue in the u70s-l80s inland to the l-m80s at the coast.

Conditions settle down Tues night into Wed as Isaias moves to the NE. There is a chc of diurnal showers/tstms Wed afternoon. Seasonal temperatures with lows in the upper 60s/low 70s Tue night . followed by highs in the upper 80s/low 90s Wed.

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/. As of 530 PM EDT Sunday .

As Tropical Storm Isaias pulls away from the area, a broad upper trough will remain in place across the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley through Saturday. A sfc trough will be located east of the Appalachian Mountains through the early part of the weekend. This will allow for widespread thunderstorms to develop across the area each afternoon and last until shortly after sunset. Temperatures will not be as hot as previous weeks with the increased tstm chances and associated cloud cover. Highs 87-92F and overnight low temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s. Even though dew points will be in the low 70s, heat indices are expected to remain below 100 degrees.

AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/. As of 635 AM EDT Monday .

SCT-BKN SC (largely MVFR) for a part of the morning then SCT-BKN CU w/ increases CHCs for SHRAs/tstms this afternoon/evening (which would be accompanied by brief flight restrictions in heavy rain/lower CIGs). Kept VCSH for now given uncertain coverage attm. SSW winds 5-15 kt More widespread (potentially heavy) rain. reduced VSBY/CIGS . along with breezy to windy conditions are likely late tonight into Tue afternoon as lo pres (tropical cyclone Isaias) crosses the area from south to north. Conditions transition back to more diurnal showers/tstms Wednesday through Friday.

MARINE. As of 600 AM EDT Monday .

Early morning surface analysis shows low pressure centered in southern Quebec with a surface trough extending southward into the Mid-Atlantic states. Tropical Storm Isaias is centered roughly 150 miles SE of Jacksonville, FL moving NNW parallel to the FL coast. Locally, winds across the marine area are SW 15-20 knots from Cape Henry northward and 10-15 knots to the south. A few gusts to 25 knots have been noted overnight, especially at elevated sensors on the east and northeastern Ches Bay. Waves in the bay are 1-3 ft with seas averaging 3-4 ft. Winds will decrease to 10-15 knots and become SSE today as the trough lifts away to the NE.

Attention then turns to Isaias. 00z/03 guidance has come into better agreement with respect to the track/intensity of Isaias, but there are still some differences with respect to timing. GFS remains the fastest of the bunch, about 6 hours ahead of the GEM/ECMWF. There have only been minor shifts in the forecast track since last night but global models do show a modest increase in strength over the next 12-24 hours vs the previous forecast, resulting in a slightly stronger wind field for our area. The latest NHC track is faster and shows Isaias making landfall just S of the NC/SC border Monday night before moving to just east of Raleigh. Isaias will likely track NNE near/just to the west of the Chesapeake Bay on Tuesday morning before quickly exiting to the N/NE Tue afternoon. Isaias is expected to maintain tropical storm strength as it tracks through the area, so TS Watches have been upgraded to TS Warnings for the ocean, bay, Currituck Sound, and all of the rivers. Looks like the most likely timing for tropical storm conditions will be from around 2 AM through 2 PM Tuesday. The earliest onset of TS conditions will be across srn marine zones, with the latest onset of TS conditions occurring across nrn marine zones. There is the potential for sustained winds of 40-50 kt with gusts up to 60-65 kt during this timeframe. The strongest winds will generally be from the S or SE across the marine area (E of the center of Isaias). Given that Isaias will be gaining forward speed as it tracks through the area, tropical storm conditions will last no more than 6-8 hours or so at any given location. Will continue to advertise increasing winds /waves-seas late Mon night-Tue AM before winds, waves, and seas quickly decrease Tue evening in the wake of Isaias. Sub- SCA conditions return on Wed and are expected to last through Fri. Please see the latest advisories from the National Hurricane Center concerning the track of Hurricane Isaias.

TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING. As of 530 AM EDT Monday .

Tidal flooding is possible across parts of the area on Tuesday-early Wednesday morning as TS Isaias tracks NNE through the area. Strong S to SE winds for a 6-8 hour period will result in rapidly rising water levels across the mid/upper Ches Bay (especially the bayside of the Lower MD Ern Shore) and also in areas on the north side of the Albemarle/Currituck Sounds. In coordination with neighboring offices, Coastal Flood Watches remain in effect for the bayside of the Lower MD Ern Shore, VA Northern Neck, all counties in NE NC north of the Albemarle Sound, and VA Beach (for sound side flooding). There is the potential for water levels to exceed moderate flood thresholds in the watch area on Tuesday. The latest guidance shows lower potential for water to be trapped in the northern Ches Bay, but the forecast will continue to show minor to low-end moderate flooding on the bayside of the Lower Ern Shore early Wed AM. Thus, the Coastal Flood Watch for the Lower Ern shore runs through ~06z Wed. Watches for NE NC/VA Beach run through Tuesday evening.

While a watch has been issued for Northumberland/Westmoreland, confidence remains quite low that Lewisetta will reach moderate flood thresholds.

CLIMATE. As of 230 AM EDT Monday .

RIC official had a high temperature of 96F Sun which made it 24 consecutive days of 90+F temperatures (the 2nd longest streak in the period of record). The longest streak on record is 27 days in 1995.

AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. MD . Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening for MDZ021>023. Tropical Storm Warning for MDZ021>025. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for MDZ021>023. NC . Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening for NCZ012>014-030. Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ012>017-030>032-102. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for NCZ015>017-030>032-102. VA . Flash Flood Watch from 10 PM EDT this evening through Tuesday evening for VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096- 509>524. Tropical Storm Warning for VAZ064-075>090-092-093-095>100- 511>525. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through late Tuesday night for VAZ099. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for VAZ098. Coastal Flood Watch from late tonight through Tuesday evening for VAZ075-077. MARINE . Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.

SYNOPSIS . AJZ/ALB NEAR TERM . AJZ/ALB SHORT TERM . AJZ/ALB LONG TERM . CP/JDM AVIATION . ALB MARINE . ERI/RHR TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING . AKQ CLIMATE . AKQ


Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
44089 11 mi55 min 73°F3 ft
WAHV2 - 8631044 - Wachapreague, VA 17 mi57 min S 19 G 24 82°F 85°F1018.6 hPa
RPLV2 - 8632837 - Rappahannock Light, VA 35 mi57 min S 15 G 17 1018.8 hPa
KPTV2 - 8632200 - Kiptopeke, VA 45 mi57 min S 13 G 17 82°F
44058 - Stingray Point, VA 48 mi39 min S 21 G 25 85°F1020.5 hPa

Wind History for Rappahannock Light, VA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Melfa / Accomack Airport, VA22 mi56 minS 15 G 2110.00 miMostly Cloudy87°F73°F63%1018.3 hPa
Wallops Flight Facility Airport, VA24 mi57 minS 1510.00 miFair86°F78°F77%1017.9 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KMFV

Wind History from MFV (wind in knots)
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1 day ago----SE6SE6E6----S7SE4----S3SE7S6--S7--S5--SW6SW8S8S6S8
2 days ago----E5E6--E6E5E5E3NE6E8NE8--Calm--Calm--Calm--NE3NE5E3E3Calm

Tide / Current Tables for Metompkin Inlet, Virginia
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Metompkin Inlet
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Mon -- 02:42 AM EDT     -0.14 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:59 AM EDT     3.75 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 02:47 PM EDT     0.13 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 09:15 PM EDT     4.54 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.80.80-0.10.31.122.93.53.73.42.71.810.30.10.51.42.43.44.14.54.33.6

Tide / Current Tables for Wachapreague Inlet (inside), Virginia
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Wachapreague Inlet (inside)
Click for Map
Mon -- 02:33 AM EDT     -0.16 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 05:49 AM EDT     Moonset
Mon -- 06:08 AM EDT     Sunrise
Mon -- 08:33 AM EDT     4.04 feet High Tide
Mon -- 11:59 AM EDT     Full Moon
Mon -- 02:38 PM EDT     0.15 feet Low Tide
Mon -- 08:08 PM EDT     Sunset
Mon -- 08:34 PM EDT     Moonrise
Mon -- 08:49 PM EDT     4.88 feet High Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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1.70.6-0-0.10.51.42.53.43.943.42.61.70.90.30.20.81.82.93.94.74.94.43.5

Weather Map
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GEOS Local Image of    EDIT
NOTE: East coast views moved to GEOS-16. They are experimental and not well supported by NOAA so they may not be correct so be warned. This change required redoing a large amount of the GOES code. If the image you are expecting is not showing, please let me know. You may need to use the EDIT function to update your location.
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Wind Forecast for Wakefield, VA (13,3,4,5)
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Ground Weather Radar Station Dover AFB, DE
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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.