Wednesday, January27, 2021
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Marine Weather and Tides
Oakland, CA

Version 3.4
NOTICE
1/26/2021 -- The West Coast Satellite images havd been updated. They now use GEOS-17.
1/1/2021 -- The 7 day forecast are now working well. Thank you NOAA for your support.

Sunrise 7:14AMSunset 5:28PM Wednesday January 27, 2021 6:13 PM PST (02:13 UTC) Moonrise 4:26PMMoonset 6:44AM Illumination 100% Phase: Full Moon; Moon at 15 days in cycle
NOTE: Some of the data on this page has not been verified and should be used with that in mind. It may and occasionally will, be wrong. The tide reports are by xtide and are NOT FOR NAVIGATION.
Marine Forecasts
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PZZ531 San Francisco Bay South Of The Bay Bridge- 202 Pm Pst Wed Jan 27 2021
This afternoon..SE winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt. Showers.
Tonight..SE winds 10 to 20 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thu..SW winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 30 kt. Showers and a slight chance of Thunderstorms.
Thu night..S winds up to 10 kt. Showers likely.
Fri..NW winds around 5 kt.
Fri night..SW winds 5 to 10 kt.
Sat..SE winds 5 to 15 kt.
Sun..S winds 5 to 10 kt. Rain likely. Winds and wind waves higher in and near Thunderstorms.
PZZ500 202 Pm Pst Wed Jan 27 2021
Synopsis for the central california coast and bays including the Monterey bay..Greater farallones...and cordell bank national marine sanctuaries... The atmospheric river jogged northward today and is currently focused over the southern waters including the big sur coast and Monterey bay. Local gale to storm force southerly winds and very steep fresh southerly seas are possible south of the atmospheric river. North of the front, winds have weakened significantly but remain breezy and out of the south. Winds north of the front will become breezy to gusty (up to 35kt) during the afternoon and into the evening. Isolated to scattered showers and Thunderstorms north of the front are expected today and may bring brief heavy rainfall, hail, erratic gusty winds, or generate waterspouts. Otherwise, a steep northwest swell will move through the waters today alongside the fresh wind driven seas.


7 Day Forecast for Marine Location Near Oakland, CA
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location: 37.78, -122.25     debug


Area Discussion for - San Francisco/Monterey Bay Area, CA
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FXUS66 KMTR 280055 AFDMTR

Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Francisco Bay Area 455 PM PST Wed Jan 27 2021

SYNOPSIS. The atmospheric river stalled over Big Sur around sunrise but has since pivoted northward towards southern Santa Cruz this afternoon, renewing flash flood and debris risk at the CZU and Monterey burn scars. Secondary air mass boundaries will bring moderate to heavy showers and thunderstorms into Thursday, prompting renewed flash flood watch on the LNU burn scars. Rain tapers off Friday for most. Another system arrives late this weekend into early next week and will bring predominately beneficial rainfall.

DISCUSSION. as of 01:30 PM PST Wednesday . An unusually cold atmospheric river event impacted the region overnight, bringing powerful southerly wind gusts ranging from 40-80mph regionwide, as well as intense heavy rain along an intense narrow cold frontal rain band, localized debris flow and slides, in addition to some novelty snow accumulations in the regional hills and mountains and significant snow accumulations in the Sierra Nevada. The ongoing atmospheric river event followed the footsteps of two weaker cold fronts in that they shared a broader parent longwave trough situated along the western CONUS. This allowed the previous two cold, weaker storm systems to rapidly sweep through the region over the previous week with minimal downstream impediments from longer wave ridging. Similarly, this atmospheric river swept through the region quicker and more progressively than had been modeled days out. This is relevant as it minimized the total duration of the peak winds and rain rates overnight and mitigated the potential impacts experienced through the dark of night last night.

Forecast models have been stubborn in insisting that the atmospheric river would stall as shifted southward and encountered the Big Sur region around sunrise this morning. Satellite and radar imagery confirmed this stall occuring over a region encompassing the Dolan wildfire burn scar in southern Monterey county southward to northern San Luis Obispo counties.

The atmospheric river remained stalled in place only temporarily, however, as at approximately 10AM, the atmospheric river began to reorient from a predominately westerly feed into a more intense southwesterly feed. The reorientation of the storm system is due to the arrival of a vigorous, rapidly digging vorticity wave sliding down on the lee side of the trough approx 650 miles west of Monterey. The sliding vort wave is imparting additional energy into the base of the trough, causing it to dig southward, while at the same time kicking/ejecting the core of the storm system towards the northeast. By stretching the storms feed towards the SW and upper dynamics to the NE, this is reorienting the atmospheric river through midday.

The reorientation is significant because a negatively tilted trough (which is what this has transitioned into) is much more favorable for deeper convective enhancement due to stronger upper dynamics/divergence aloft. Furthermore, while a slight northward jog of the atmospheric river plume was expected today, it has migrated farther northward and at a quicker pace than model data suggested it would (approx 40-60 miles northward in 120-150 minutes). Consequently, radar and satellite imagery confirmed rapid intensification of the cold front/atmospheric river as it reoriented towards a negative tilt and tapped into stronger dynamics aloft. New flash flood warnings for the River, Carmel, and CZU burn scars have been issued through midday as a backbuilding line of deeper convection developed upstream and parallel of the main frontal boundary.

Latest thinking (as of noon, now confirmed) is that a training line of moderate to strong convective cells may form along a secondary/tertiary boundary (as of 1PM this is occurring) and bring renewed threats of debris flow/flash flood risk to the burn scars. Given most forecast models failed to capture the current scenario, we are now questioning how far northward the AR will jog as it reorients into a negative tilt -- and perhaps, if and where it may stall again before continuing to progress southward into Southern California. This line of cells (as of 130PM) currently features the most intense radar indicated rain rates seen with this storm system so far. Additional rainfall accumulations in the inches are still ahead of us with this storm system.

In short, this is an extremely dynamic and potentially dangerous situation for the burn scars with sparse reliable model guidance to look towards, so real time observations/nowcasting is more important than ever as the AR resurges over high risk wildfire burn scars. If in a risk area for slides, flash flooding, or debris flow, please remain extremely vigilant of your surroundings and the latest weather information for your area either through social media, radio, or local TV.

Frontal boundary aside, an area of weaker convective developed in the unstable air mass residing over the North Bay . a number of reports of small hail came in over the area through the day today. Expect to continue to see sporadic hit or miss light to moderate showers across the broader region through at least the end of Thursday.

Even farther north, a strengthening secondary air mass boundary is becoming evident off of Cape Mendocino. The development of secondary boundaries was not unexpected as short to near term convective models indicated they would be likely and prevailing SE winds in the wake of the atmospheric river cold front strengthened the theory. Numerous, rapidly strengthening convective cells have been forming along this air mass boundary so far today and have begun to coalesce into cohesive convective-backed rain band. Latest model guidance suggests this secondary convective rain band will transition southward and begin to impact the region tonight through Thursday. These deep, rapidly strengthening convective cells are prerequisites for intense rain rates that may lead to flash flooding and/or debris flow risk in burn scars and as a result the flash flood watch for the LNU burn scars in the North Bay have been reissued through tomorrow afternoon. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms are also possible aside from these primary or secondary rain bands.

Main forecast focus today has been on the ongoing events, so not much time left to discuss beyond the current storm. That said, mostly dry Friday, then another system will bring light rain to the North Bay beginning late Friday into the weekend. A moderate system then arrives late this weekend and will bring another round of beneficial rainfall across the entirety of the San Francisco Bay Area and Central Coast. Drier weather finally returns around mid week next week. More details as soon as the current storm system departs the region.

AVIATION. as of 03:32 PM PST Wednesday . For the 00Z TAFs. Generally MVFR conditions, occasionally VFR, prevailing throughout the taf period as the atmospheric river continues to impact the Central Coast. Generally light to moderate rainfall north of the SF Bay Area and moderate to heavier showers south of San Jose. Winds will remain out of the S/SE through tomorrow before finally veering towards the SW/W/NW later tomorrow into Friday once the AR exits the region. Until then, expect periods of breezy S/SE winds, showers, and MVFR cigs. Reduced vis/cigs during heavier showers expected. A secondary line of convective showers is currently north of the region and is at this time expected to impact the region tonight into tomorrow. This will bring periods of heavy convective showers, gusty winds, and possible isolated thunderstorms. Stronger southerly winds and heavier rains for Monterey County and southward.

Vicinity of KSFO . Predominately MVFR with breezy to gusty S-SE winds and scattered to widespread showers today. Low confidence on wind speeds/gusts and timing of showers. Given showery nature of weather today and tomorrow, expect intermittent up and down of visbys/cigs/rain rates/winds, though predominate conditions will feature BKN-OVC decks at 2000-5000 ft AGl, 4-6SM visibility, S-SE winds 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt and -SHRA.

SFO Bridge Approach . Similar to KSFO.

Monterey Bay Terminals . Flight paths of KMRY/KSNS will encounter the peak intensity of the atmospheric river through tomorrow. Otherwise, predominately MVFR with breezy to gusty S-SE winds and scattered to widespread showers today. Low confidence on wind speeds/gusts and timing of showers. Given showery nature of weather today and tomorrow, expect intermittent up and down of visbys/cigs/rain rates/winds, though predominate conditions will feature BKN-OVC decks at 2000-5000 ft AGl, 3-6SM visibility, S-SE winds 10-20 kt with gusts 20-30 kt.

MARINE. as of 12:14 PM PST Wednesday . The atmospheric river boundary has shifted southward and is currently focused south of Point Sur closer to Point Piedras Blancas. Local gale to storm force winds out of the south and very steep fresh seas can be expected along the southern Big Sur coast through the day today as a result. North of the front, winds have weakened significantly but remain breezy and out of the south. Winds north of the front will become occasionally gusty up to 25-35kt this afternoon between Pt Reyes and Point Sur as the storm systems reverses northward slightly. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms north of the front are expected today and may bring brief heavy rainfall, hail, erratic gusty winds, or generate waterspouts. Otherwise, a steep northwest swell will move through the waters today alongside the fresh wind driven seas.

MTR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES. Tngt. Wind Advisory . CAZ516>518-528-530 Flash Flood Watch . CAZ507-511-512-517 SCA . Pt Arena to Pt Reyes 0-10 nm SCA . Pt Reyes to Pigeon Pt 0-10 nm SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Pinos 0-10 nm SCA . Pt Arena to Pigeon Pt 10-60 nm SCA . Pigeon Pt to Pt Piedras Blancas 10-60 nm GLW . Pt Pinos to Pt Piedras Blancas 0-10 nm until 3 AM



PUBLIC FORECAST: DRP AVIATION: AS MARINE: DRP

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Weather Reporting Stations
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Stations Dist Age Wind Air TempWater Temp WavesPressureDewPt
LNDC1 2 mi55 min SE 11 G 16 49°F 1005.6 hPa
AAMC1 - 9414750 - Alameda, CA 3 mi55 min ESE 14 G 20 48°F 50°F1005.8 hPa
OMHC1 - 9414769 - Oakland Middle Harbor Met, CA 4 mi55 min ESE 13 G 21
OBXC1 5 mi55 min 48°F 44°F
OKXC1 - 9414776 - Oakland (Berth 34), CA 5 mi55 min SE 8 G 14 48°F 1005.7 hPa
PXSC1 8 mi55 min 49°F 47°F
PXOC1 - 9414311 - San Francisco (Pier 1), CA 8 mi55 min SE 23 G 26 48°F 1004 hPa
PPXC1 - 9414847 - Richmond (Point Potrero), CA 11 mi55 min ESE 19 G 23 51°F 1005.9 hPa
FTPC1 - 9414290 - San Francisco, CA 12 mi55 min SE 12 G 18 48°F 52°F1005.9 hPa
TIBC1 - Tiburon Pier, San Francisco Bay, CA 13 mi62 min SSE 17 48°F 1006 hPa
RCMC1 - 9414863 - Richmond, CA 13 mi55 min SE 12 G 15
RTYC1 - 9414523 - Redwood City, CA 19 mi55 min ESE 7 G 11 48°F 51°F1006.4 hPa
UPBC1 19 mi55 min ESE 5.1 G 5.1
MZXC1 - 9415102 - Martinez-Amorco CA 19 mi55 min E 4.1 G 5.1 48°F 51°F1006.5 hPa
DPXC1 - 9415141 - Davis Point, San Pablo Bay, CA 19 mi55 min E 11 G 14 49°F 1005.8 hPa
CQUC1 20 mi60 min 50°F
46237 - San Francisco Bar, CA (142) 20 mi73 min 51°F12 ft
PCOC1 - 9415144 - Port Chicago, CA 22 mi55 min E 11 G 14 46°F 50°F1006.5 hPa
PSBC1 - 9415115 - Pittsburg (Suisun Bay), CA 26 mi55 min SSE 19 G 25 47°F 1006.9 hPa
46026 - SAN FRANCISCO - 18NM West of San Francisco, CA 31 mi33 min E 12 G 19 51°F1005.6 hPa
SFXC1 - San Francisco Bay Reserve, CA 31 mi88 min SSE 15 46°F 1007 hPa43°F
46012 - HALF MOON BAY - 24NM South Southwest of San Francisco, CA 44 mi33 min SSE 21 G 29 51°F 1005 hPa47°F

Wind History for Alameda, CA
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Airport Reports
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AirportDistAgeWind ktVisibilitySky/WeatherTempDewPtHumidityPressure
Oakland, Metro Oakland International Airport, CA6 mi20 minSE 1510.00 miOvercast51°F42°F71%1005.7 hPa
Hayward, Hayward Air Terminal, CA11 mi19 minSSE 13 G 1910.00 miOvercast49°F40°F71%1006.6 hPa
San Francisco, San Francisco International Airport, CA12 mi17 minSE 1010.00 miOvercast50°F43°F77%1005.4 hPa
Concord, Buchanan Field, CA17 mi20 minSE 310.00 miOvercast48°F40°F74%1004.7 hPa
San Carlos Airport, CA17 mi26 minESE 1110.00 miOvercast48°F45°F87%1005.8 hPa
Palo Alto Airport, CA22 mi26 minSE 16 G 2610.00 miShowers Rain46°F41°F82%1005.8 hPa
Livermore, Livermore Municipal Airport, CA23 mi20 minSE 710.00 miLight Rain45°F38°F77%1005.7 hPa
Half Moon Bay Airport, CA23 mi18 minSSE 67.00 miOvercast50°F45°F82%1005.4 hPa

Link to 5 minute data for KOAK

Wind History from OAK (wind in knots)
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1 day agoNW14--NW12
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NW11NW12N4N4N4E3CalmE3SE4E3SE9SE8SE10SE12S12SE12SE15S16SE16
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Tide / Current Tables for Oakland Harbor, Park Street Bridge, San Francisco Bay, California
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Oakland Harbor
Click for Map
Wed -- 12:20 AM PST     5.34 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:42 AM PST     3.15 feet Low Tide
Wed -- 06:44 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 10:34 AM PST     7.01 feet High Tide
Wed -- 04:26 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:39 PM PST     -0.76 feet Low Tide
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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5.35.24.63.83.33.23.64.35.36.36.976.353.31.60.2-0.6-0.7-0.20.723.34.4

Tide / Current Tables for Oakland Harbor High Street Bridge, San Francisco Bay, California Current
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Oakland Harbor High Street Bridge
Click for Map
Wed -- 01:23 AM PST     -0.77 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:49 AM PST     0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 06:44 AM PST     Moonset
Wed -- 07:16 AM PST     Sunrise
Wed -- 07:27 AM PST     1.26 knots Max Flood
Wed -- 10:23 AM PST     -0.00 knots Slack
Wed -- 01:31 PM PST     -1.98 knots Max Ebb
Wed -- 04:26 PM PST     Moonrise
Wed -- 05:27 PM PST     Sunset
Wed -- 05:53 PM PST     0.01 knots Slack
Wed -- 08:40 PM PST     1.85 knots Max Flood
Tide / Current data from XTide NOT FOR NAVIGATION
Sorry tide depth graphs only, please select another station.

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-0.3-0.7-0.7-0.6-0.30.10.81.21.20.90.3-0.5-1.3-1.9-1.9-1.6-1.2-0.60.11.11.71.81.61

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The information on this web site has not been checked for accuracy. It is for entertainment purposes only and should be independently verified before using for any other reason. There are five sources. 1) Documents and manuals from a variety of sources. These have not been checked for accuracy and in many cases have not even been read by anyone associated with L-36.com. I have no idea of they are useful or accurate, I leave that to the reader. 2) Articles others have written and submitted. If you have questions on these, please contact the author. 3) Articles that represent my personal opinions. These are intended to promote thought and for entertainment. These are not intended to be fact, they are my opinions. 4) Small programs that generate result presented on a web page. Like any computer program, these may and in some cases do have errors. Almost all of these also make simplifying assumptions so they are not totally accurate even if there are no errors. Please verify all results. 5) Weather information is from numerous of sources and is presented automatically. It is not checked for accuracy either by anyone at L-36.com or by the source which is typically the US Government. See the NOAA web site for their disclaimer. Finally, tide and current data on this site is from 2007 and 2008 data bases, which may contain even older data. Changes in harbors due to building or dredging change tides and currents and for that reason many of the locations presented are no longer supported by newer data bases. For example, there is very little tidal current data in newer data bases so current data is likely wrong to some extent. This data is NOT FOR NAVIGATION. See the XTide disclaimer for details. In addition, tide and current are influenced by storms, river flow, and other factors beyond the ability of any predictive program.